Bangkok Gubernatorial Election: No Upset Victory Expected In City Polls

[webfact]

No upset victory expected in city polls
Budsarakham Sinlapalavan
The Nation



BANGKOK: -- Two leading pollsters say they doubt if there will be an upset victory in the upcoming Bangkok gubernatorial election.

"Based on previous elections, the vote outcome has reflected tracking polls," Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannika said yesterday.

He said tracking polls in 1996, 2000 and 2004 had proved reliable for predicting an outcome. However, he admitted that this year's tracking results might be slightly distorted due to political divisiveness.

For instance, respondents in the opposition camp are reluctant to reveal their voting preference, hence they are classified as undecided, he said, adding that the number of undecided voters was not large enough to change the outcome.

Nevertheless, he said, the two key rivals - Democrat Sukhumbhand Paribatra and Pheu Thai's Pongsapat Pongcharoen - might outpace the other if the number of votes go either above or below the margin of error.

For instance, leading candidate Pongsapat is predicted to win if he gets 36-50 per cent of the votes cast, but he might lose the race if he wins less than 36 per cent. Meanwhile, Sukhum-bhand has been predicted to win 27-41 per cent of the votes, but will win if he garners more than 41 per cent.

Suan Dusit Poll director Sukhum Chaloeysap said four or five tracking polls showed similar results even though different methods were used for sampling. "I think there is a very small chance of voters changing their decision," he said, adding that the election outcome will be as predicted.

He said an upset could only happen under due to uncontrollable variables, such as a sudden change in weather that might keep voters at home.


-- The Nation 2013-02-23

[waza]

Great topic that says nothing.

[Locationthailand]

Another article unable to present anything clearly, likely a 'stringer' being paid by the word.

Edited February 23, 2013 by Locationthailand

[siampolee]

Reading the O.P.and its statistics and quotes reminded me of a dog chasing its tail.No idea why its actually chasing its tail and totally unable to catch its tail.

[Buchholz]

Great topic that says nothing.

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What it does attempt to say is laughable.

The pollster is hedging their bets by saying that no matter who wins, they correctly predicted the winner.

For instance, leading candidate Pongsapat is predicted to win if he gets 36-50 per cent of the votes cast, but he might lose the race if he wins less than 36 per cent. Meanwhile, Sukhumbhand has been predicted to win 27-41 per cent of the votes, but will win if he garners more than 41 per cent.

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[15Peter20]

Not a helpful article.

[ratcatcher]

It's good to see 'Daddy's Boy" up there with the best of 'em.

[Artisi]

The usual meaningless dribble, couldn't organise an invitation for drunks to a brewery.

[geriatrickid]

Ahh I see. One of the candidates will win the election and the person that wins, will be as exactly predicted by the polling results.

ok. That settles it.

[onomataho]

The Nation obviously does not want to say that Pheu Thai's Pongsapat Pongcharoen is going to win.

It would upset the hands that feed them.

[Buchholz]

The Nation obviously does not want to say that Pheu Thai's Pongsapat Pongcharoen is going to win.

It would upset the hands that feed them.

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subscribers and advertisers?

Anyway... read the article again. What is said in the article is said by...

Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannika said...

Suan Dusit Poll director Sukhum Chaloeysap said...

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Try again on some other thread.

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Edited February 23, 2013 by Buchholz

[khaowong1]

I predict that Tommy's Choice will win the 3rd race at Hollywood Park today, if he can get out in front and stay there, if not it could be Alacazar, if he can get out in front of Tommy's Choice and stay there.. But either way, with a 6 horse race, I predict that one of these horses will win. Just remember where you got this information when you win, because I am selling horse picks. Have a good day at the races...

[Lite Beer]

Yingluck agrees Bangkok race much tighter than expected
The Nation on Sunday

The Democrat Party holds an election rally for its gubernatorial candidate, Sukhumbhand Paribatra, at the Royal Plaza yesterday. After the event, attended by many senior party figures, a caravan of vehicles took to the streets to campaign among Bangkok voters

With polls suggesting that the Bangkok gubernatorial race is tighter than believed earlier, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said this would be a good opportunity for Pheu Thai candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen to prove his abilities before the March 3 election.

Yingluck said the ruling party will adhere to creative campaign tactics by visiting off-the-beaten-track areas, adding that the Thon Buri side of the capital had many prospective voters and Pongsapat needed to woo them.

The prime minister was helping Pongsapat campaign in Chom Thong district, which lies on the Thon Buri side, yesterday morning. She said that campaigning should become more intense in this last week before the election.

As for rumours that the Democrat Party might be engaging in electoral irregularities by moving voters from upcountry to be registered in Bangkok ahead of the poll, Yingluck only said that she wanted the election to be free and fair so the public is not disappointed.

She is also urging the Democrat Party to stop resorting to negative campaigning by highlighting the burning down of buildings in the aftermath of the 2010 crackdown on red-shirt protesters in May 2010.

Yingluck also pushed Pongsapat's selling pitch, saying that if he were elected as governor, coordination between the state government and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) would be very smooth.

"This will benefit Bangkokians," she said.

Meanwhile, Pongsapat said he intended to campaign until the very last second before voting starts. As per regulations, candidates have until 6pm on March 2 to campaign. He added that his team was visiting several areas of Bangkok to collect details about the problems they are facing, and if elected, he will tackle these issues right away. "We shall keep our promises and make them happen right away," he promised.

In a related development, Pheu Thai deputy spokesperson Sunisa Lertpakawat said that having a governor from the Democrat Party - which already holds a majority in the Bangkok Council - was "scarier" than having a governor from the ruling party. She said this was because there would be no telling whether the councillors would truly scrutinise the governor if he came from the same party.

Sunisa also said many complaints had been made about the alleged transfer of household registration documents, particularly to three Bangkok districts, namely Phasi Charoen, Bang Khae and Wang Thonglarng.

However, Democrat spokesperson Chavanond Intarakomalsut denied this allegation and challenged the Pheu Thai Party to produce proof, warning of legal action against anyone suspected of electoral manipulation.

Chavanond said that these last few days before the election would be the perfect time for Bangkokians to decide whom they want as governor, adding that incumbent Sukhumbhand Paribatra had now become a target for a smear campaign by his rivals.

-- The Nation 2013-02-24

[rubl]

In a related development, Pheu Thai deputy spokesperson Sunisa Lertpakawat said that having a governor from the Democrat Party - which already holds a majority in the Bangkok Council - was "scarier" than having a governor from the ruling party. She said this was because there would be no telling whether the councillors would truly scrutinise the governor if he came from the same party.

Now pray tell me, how many governors of provinces have clear affiliation with the ruling party, like for instance in North-East of Thailand. Surely that would be as scary as hell? Same for down South.

Let's elect governors of all provinces, give the people a voice in this

[Buchholz]

In a related development, Pheu Thai deputy spokesperson Sunisa Lertpakawat said that having a governor from the Democrat Party - which already holds a majority in the Bangkok Council - was "scarier" than having a governor from the ruling party. She said this was because there would be no telling whether the councillors would truly scrutinise the governor if he came from the same party.

Now pray tell me, how many governors of provinces have clear affiliation with the ruling party, like for instance in North-East of Thailand. Surely that would be as scary as hell? Same for down South.

Let's elect governors of all provinces, give the people a voice in this

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Agree that representative democracy would call for individually elected governors by the voters in the provinces and not be chosen by the Interior Minister (particularly when considering some past Interior Ministers like Chalerm).

The local populace knows the local issues much better than a bureaucrat from 900 km away assigned there.

The answer to your first sentence is ALL of the governors, beside Bangkok's, are associated with the ruling party. That's why everything is working so "seamlessly" (love that word the PTP has latched onto) on a nation-wide basis.

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Edited February 25, 2013 by Buchholz