Credibility Of Opinion Polls At Stake As Most Tipped Ponsapat: Bangkok

[dickyknee]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

the people that used that phrase also had a habit of killing people for their cause. A bit extreme don't you think?

[DP25]

Your old man's a kipper then.You are not only wrong but spectacularly wrong.Thaksin's family is from Chiangmai, relatively wealthy certainly and of Chinese extraction, but not amart.He is regarded and was regarded as noveau riche, and is looked down by those that matter.Frankly your mistake is to use terms you don't fully understand.

He was born in to one of the most powerful and wealthy families in Thailand. His grandmother was a princess, his father was a member of parliament, his uncle was a member of parliament and a cabinet member, and another uncle was the mayor of Chiang Mai, the second richest and most powerful city in the country. And Thaksin was able to surpass even those lofty accomplishments. All of this they achieved because of their wealth and aristocratic connections. Thaksin was born in to power, by both wealth and blood.

[Buchholz]

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

.

Still only elusiveness... no names... stealthily obtuse... with only a mysterious and disingenuous referral to google.

...and no explanation of "our"

.

Aaah! now I see, you are confusing me with the guy with a similar name to me, he will surely be able to supply all the information you require on the Amart including addresses and phone numbers. I am sure he will be able to supply similar information on the senior army generals also.

.

Nope.

No confusion of your name at all.

Just hoping to have the simple straight-forward questions asked of you by Pimay to be answered.

Instead, it's yet more obtuse side-stepping and bizarre over-exaggeration of what is being asked for.

Even a "I don't know, I have no idea" response from you would be preferable to the current obfuscation.

.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Buchholz

[PREM-R]

Pimay 1

And who is that guy with a similar name?

Well you are not much of a yellow shirt if you don't know, once again Google is your friend

[bunuel]

Seems original post regarding Amart is pretty clear, with a minimum of obfuscation. Indeed, if a well-informed veteran poster like Bucholz needs things spelled out, seems more likely he is is being intentionally obtuse, rather than a victim of obfuscation!

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

.Still only elusiveness... no names... stealthily obtuse... with only a mysterious and disingenuous referral to google....and no explanation of "our":rolleyes:.

Aaah! now I see, you are confusing me with the guy with a similar name to me, he will surely be able to supply all the information you require on the Amart including addresses and phone numbers. I am sure he will be able to supply similar information on the senior army generals also.

.Nope.No confusion of your name at all.Just hoping to have the simple straight-forward questions asked of you by Pimay to be answered.Instead, it's yet more obtuse side-stepping and bizarre over-exaggeration of what is being asked for.Even a "I don't know, I have no idea" response from you would be preferable to the current obfuscation. .

[PREM-R]

Aaah! now I see, you are confusing me with the guy with a similar name to me, he will surely be able to supply all the information you require on the Amart including addresses and phone numbers. I am sure he will be able to supply similar information on the senior army generals also.

.

Nope.

No confusion of your name at all.

Just hoping to have the simple straight-forward questions asked of you by Pimay to be answered.

Instead, it's yet more obtuse side-stepping and bizarre over-exaggeration of what is being asked for.

Even a "I don't know, I have no idea" response from you would be preferable to the current obfuscation.

.

O.K. just for you "I don't know, I have no idea" maybe they do not exist, a figment of my imagination eh! 555

[webfact]

Polling agencies promise better methodology after wrong predictions in Bangkok Governor race

BANGKOK, 4 March 2013 (NNT) - After the Bangkok Governor election result on Monday proved the survey results wrong, some polling agencies have come out to admit their errors and explain why the true result deviated from the results predicted

Director of ABAC Poll Noppadol Kannikar admitted that the survey was flawed. He said that the reason the actual result was different from what the ABAC Poll had predicted was that voters might have withdrawn their support for independent candidates in favour of the successful candidate, Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

While this might explain why surveys conducted before the election showed Puea Thai candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen in the lead, it cannot explain why ABAC's "exit poll" result still showed Mr Pongsapat beating Mr Sukhumbhand by 12 percentage points.

Mr Noppadol added that ABAC Poll would seek to improve its polling methodology by enlarging its sampling size and using sampling techniques that would eliminate statistical biases. Meanwhile, director of Ban Somdej Poll Sing Singkajorn, whose exit poll survey also predicted Mr Pongsapat would win by a narrow margin of 1.5%, said that the 1.5% difference was not statistically significant enough to allow an accurate prediction as to who would win.

As for the reason why Ban Somdej failed to predict Mr Sukhumbhand's victory, Mr Sing said that Ban Somdej's team was not allowed to carry out its survey between 13.30 and 15.30, which was the busiest voting time, and consequently the survey result failed to reflect the population's voting choice.

Other than ABAC and Ban Somdej Poll, other polling agencies also predicted Police Gen. Pongsapat's victory. Suan Dusit Poll and Channel 7 had Mr Pongsapat ahead by 7-10%, whereas Suan Sunanta and Bangkok University predicted a narrow win for Mr Pongsapat.


-- NNT 2013-03-04

[Buchholz]

Seems original post regarding Amart is pretty clear, with a minimum of obfuscation. Indeed, if a well-informed veteran poster like Bucholz needs things spelled out, seems more likely he is is being intentionally obtuse, rather than a victim of obfuscation!

.

Welcome to more stonewalling evasiveness.

A bizarre statement by PREM-R:

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

is justifiable queried with simple, straight-forward questions.

6 replies later, it remains unanswered.

Amazing Thaivisa.

[Buchholz]

Aaah! now I see, you are confusing me with the guy with a similar name to me, he will surely be able to supply all the information you require on the Amart including addresses and phone numbers. I am sure he will be able to supply similar information on the senior army generals also.

.

Nope.

No confusion of your name at all.

Just hoping to have the simple straight-forward questions asked of you by Pimay to be answered.

Instead, it's yet more obtuse side-stepping and bizarre over-exaggeration of what is being asked for.

Even a "I don't know, I have no idea" response from you would be preferable to the current obfuscation.

.

O.K. just for you "I don't know, I have no idea"

.

More difficult than extracting wisdom teeth, but at least, now, we have your answer.

Thank you.

.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Buchholz

[Locationthailand]

I wonder how much they charge for these polls to get it wrong?

[PREM-R]

Aaah! now I see, you are confusing me with the guy with a similar name to me, he will surely be able to supply all the information you require on the Amart including addresses and phone numbers. I am sure he will be able to supply similar information on the senior army generals also.

.

Nope.

No confusion of your name at all.

Just hoping to have the simple straight-forward questions asked of you by Pimay to be answered.

Instead, it's yet more obtuse side-stepping and bizarre over-exaggeration of what is being asked for.

Even a "I don't know, I have no idea" response from you would be preferable to the current obfuscation.

.

O.K. just for you "I don't know, I have no idea"

.

More difficult than extracting wisdom teeth, but at least, now, we have your answer.

Thank you.

.

Please Mr. Bucholz, don't edit my answers when posting them as a "Quote". Someone with over 14,000 posts should know better. Amazing Thai Visa

[Buchholz]

Director of ABAC Poll Noppadol Kannikar admitted that the survey was flawed. He said that the reason the actual result was different from what the ABAC Poll had predicted was that voters might have withdrawn their support for independent candidates in favour of the successful candidate, Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

Mr Noppadol added that ABAC Poll would seek to improve its polling methodology by enlarging its sampling size and using sampling techniques that would eliminate statistical biases.

.

Intriguing that in this article there's no mention at all of Noppaol's pledge in another paper to stop publishing poll results to the public for future elections.

Hopefully, he's not already backing off from that.

Even Chalerm has lived up to his pledge of silence on day one.

.

[Buchholz]

Please Mr. Bucholz, don't edit my answers when posting them as a "Quote".

There's nothing that prohibits editing posts down to get to the crux of what is being discussed. If you have a more serious answer that expands beyond that quoted above, we're all ears. But given your demonstrated evasiveness, we're not holding our breath.

.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Buchholz

[khunken]

It always amuses me when threads get hyjacked by those parroting the red shirt propaganda about 'The Amart'.

This mysterious 'group' who are supposed to have ruled Thailand since it changed it's name from Siam. If Amart is translated as 'elite', then there are many elite groups in the country, not least the business cabal led by Shin Corp. Anyway, enough of that - to the topic.

The argument that the pollsters polled people who were not eligible to vote in Bangkok, giving this as a reason for error is only half true. Exit polls are supposed to poll people who have actually voted, so that should eliminate non voters.

This is not the first time that the polls have got it all wrong, so there has to be another factor. Incompetence or an agenda spring to mind. Can't decide which is the reason as both are endemic here.

[PREM-R]

Please Mr. Bucholz, don't edit my answers when posting them as a "Quote".

There's nothing that prohibits editing posts down to get to the crux of what is being discussed. If you have a more serious answer that expands beyond that quoted above, we're all ears. But given your demonstrated evasiveness, we're not holding our breath.

.

Who are "We" please inform 'Us'

[15Peter20]

Buchholz bickering session alert!!!

[jayboy]

It always amuses me when threads get hyjacked by those parroting the red shirt propaganda about 'The Amart'.

This mysterious 'group' who are supposed to have ruled Thailand since it changed it's name from Siam. If Amart is translated as 'elite', then there are many elite groups in the country, not least the business cabal led by Shin Corp. Anyway, enough of that - to the topic.

The argument that the pollsters polled people who were not eligible to vote in Bangkok, giving this as a reason for error is only half true. Exit polls are supposed to poll people who have actually voted, so that should eliminate non voters.

This is not the first time that the polls have got it all wrong, so there has to be another factor. Incompetence or an agenda spring to mind. Can't decide which is the reason as both are endemic here.

But "ammat" does not mean "elite" in Thai.It means "establishment",in other words the collection of groups that blocked the country's majority in 2006 successfully through a criminal military coup but with decreasing genuine success (judicial activism,directed courts, rigged constitutions etc) thereafter.

The suggestion that the "ammat" means elite, and that Thaksin is part of that elite is just braindead or glorified bar talk.If one argued it was a battle of competing elites, that would make more sense though the devil is in the detail to make it convincing.But it's a different question altogether to the "ammat" which anyone even slightly knowledgeable about political science would understand immediately.

[khunken]

It always amuses me when threads get hyjacked by those parroting the red shirt propaganda about 'The Amart'.

This mysterious 'group' who are supposed to have ruled Thailand since it changed it's name from Siam. If Amart is translated as 'elite', then there are many elite groups in the country, not least the business cabal led by Shin Corp. Anyway, enough of that - to the topic.

The argument that the pollsters polled people who were not eligible to vote in Bangkok, giving this as a reason for error is only half true. Exit polls are supposed to poll people who have actually voted, so that should eliminate non voters.

This is not the first time that the polls have got it all wrong, so there has to be another factor. Incompetence or an agenda spring to mind. Can't decide which is the reason as both are endemic here.

But "ammat" does not mean "elite" in Thai.It means "establishment",in other words the collection of groups that blocked the country's majority in 2006 successfully through a criminal military coup but with decreasing genuine success (judicial activism,directed courts, rigged constitutions etc) thereafter.

The suggestion that the "ammat" means elite, and that Thaksin is part of that elite is just braindead or glorified bar talk.If one argued it was a battle of competing elites, that would make more sense though the devil is in the detail to make it convincing.But it's a different question altogether to the "ammat" which anyone even slightly knowledgeable about political science would understand immediately.

Up (down) to your usual standard I see. The brainwashed just cannot see that the definition of the Amart has been hyjacked (that word again) by the red shirt leaders to debase any opposition to their own Amart's cause. And sometimes 'Tory' is stupidly thrown into the mix.

Now, have you anything to say on the topic?

[jayboy]

It always amuses me when threads get hyjacked by those parroting the red shirt propaganda about 'The Amart'.

This mysterious 'group' who are supposed to have ruled Thailand since it changed it's name from Siam. If Amart is translated as 'elite', then there are many elite groups in the country, not least the business cabal led by Shin Corp. Anyway, enough of that - to the topic.

The argument that the pollsters polled people who were not eligible to vote in Bangkok, giving this as a reason for error is only half true. Exit polls are supposed to poll people who have actually voted, so that should eliminate non voters.

This is not the first time that the polls have got it all wrong, so there has to be another factor. Incompetence or an agenda spring to mind. Can't decide which is the reason as both are endemic here.

But "ammat" does not mean "elite" in Thai.It means "establishment",in other words the collection of groups that blocked the country's majority in 2006 successfully through a criminal military coup but with decreasing genuine success (judicial activism,directed courts, rigged constitutions etc) thereafter.

The suggestion that the "ammat" means elite, and that Thaksin is part of that elite is just braindead or glorified bar talk.If one argued it was a battle of competing elites, that would make more sense though the devil is in the detail to make it convincing.But it's a different question altogether to the "ammat" which anyone even slightly knowledgeable about political science would understand immediately.

Up (down) to your usual standard I see. The brainwashed just cannot see that the definition of the Amart has been hyjacked (that word again) by the red shirt leaders to debase any opposition to their own Amart's cause. And sometimes 'Tory' is stupidly thrown into the mix.

Now, have you anything to say on the topic?

I'm afraid I don't understand any of your last post: if you resubmit in a coherent form I will try to address any points you have.

I explained earlier what "ammat' means in Thai.It can be understood in isolation, that is without reference to current politics.

[Siripon]

The credibility of any figure is in doubt in Thailand. Polling agencies poll the establishment in ten provinces and extrapolate the outcome to the rest of Thailand. It works the same for BKK elections. You pick out a few districts and your conclusions for all of Bangkok are based on it. Nobody cares, Poor people without access to post paid numbers or the internet are not taken into account for starters. They won't vote but are still taken into account as a possible voter.

Polling agencies never tell how they selected their sample, what the margins of error are and so on. But it is fine in Thailand. In Thailand ministers who lie about export growth do not lose their job, it is considered beneficial to the country, and the late Sanan was able to steal as much as he could from wrong healthscare figures.

The worst is of course that lots of Thai people live a lie. That the poll is off is acceptable. But that people even seem to lie about who they voted after they come out of a boot is far more scary. And in the meantime the puppet masters of the Democrat Party, the Nation is telling the world that their candidate had a record number of votes, while that is true, they forget to mention that the opposition candidate also trashed the number of votes ever received in an election.

I think Judy's votes mainly came from support for Thaksin's clone, Yingluk, who is still popular with the working class. Notice she accompanied him nearly every day, smiling and saying nothing but a few platitudes as normal. But that works well with the less educated and she can probably still charm them for a while yet -until the rice subsidies are unsustainable, and then the tears will flow.

[jayboy]

The credibility of any figure is in doubt in Thailand. Polling agencies poll the establishment in ten provinces and extrapolate the outcome to the rest of Thailand. It works the same for BKK elections. You pick out a few districts and your conclusions for all of Bangkok are based on it. Nobody cares, Poor people without access to post paid numbers or the internet are not taken into account for starters. They won't vote but are still taken into account as a possible voter.

Polling agencies never tell how they selected their sample, what the margins of error are and so on. But it is fine in Thailand. In Thailand ministers who lie about export growth do not lose their job, it is considered beneficial to the country, and the late Sanan was able to steal as much as he could from wrong healthscare figures.

The worst is of course that lots of Thai people live a lie. That the poll is off is acceptable. But that people even seem to lie about who they voted after they come out of a boot is far more scary. And in the meantime the puppet masters of the Democrat Party, the Nation is telling the world that their candidate had a record number of votes, while that is true, they forget to mention that the opposition candidate also trashed the number of votes ever received in an election.

I think Judy's votes mainly came from support for Thaksin's clone, Yingluk, who is still popular with the working class. Notice she accompanied him nearly every day, smiling and saying nothing but a few platitudes as normal. But that works well with the less educated and she can probably still charm them for a while yet -until the rice subsidies are unsustainable, and then the tears will flow.

If you genuinely think that the support of more than a million votes for Ponsapat came mainly from grateful rice farmers registered to vote in Bangkok, it's probably best to lie down quietly for an hour or two.PTP had plenty of educated and middle class support, though I accept of course the Dems had more.

But it's true the Sino Thai middle class mainly went in the Democrat direction.

I wasn't surprised by the result and indeed if I had been in a position to vote I probably - even though he's an Oxford man - would have gone with the toff (I know him very slightly, remember his glory days and he is a known quantity - unlike Pongsapat who I instinctively distrust.)To some extent I buy into the warnings against one family's monopoly of power

[tracklayer]

I always lie to pollsters and on questionnaires ;-) But remember you have appear totally credible.

[PoorSucker]

Off topic posts removed, this thread is not about UK politics.

[animatic]

The credibility of the pollsters is not at stake...

You can NOT lose what you never had.

Aint that the truth!

first 2 thoughts to come to mind

1) whoever was banking on this needs to re-visit statistics 101. These polls and statistics are as only good as your basis, and the smaller the sample, the less reliable the result.

2) pollsters are notorious for narrowing the basis. They have a tendency to tailor the poll to the wishes of those paying for it. Are you going to tell those paying you millions that they just wasted their money and are about to be crushed in the elections?

"You can NOT lose what you never had." sums it up perfectly!

Even though in MOST places telling them where they are behind, and why,

in a race helps them focus resources productively. Not so Thailand, give them bad news

and they blame you for not showing them enough respect and making them lose face.

Edited March 4, 2013 by animatic

[hellodolly]

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

As opposed to the party that consists of a criminal billionaire tax dodging aristocrat from a powerful political family, who's MPs primarily consist of millionaires from powerful political dynasties with connections to mega corporations, whose primary policy achievement once in office consist of lowering income tax on corporations and whose primary goals are tax avoidance for the rich and the implementation of corporate backed free trade agreements. They are a party for corporations and the rich whose main policy goals are furthering those groups. The most pressing problem Thailand faces is getting the mega rich like Thaksin to pay their taxes so that the government has funds to use for infrastructure and social programs, PTP is dedicated to the concept that the rich do not have to pay their share. All while harping on and on to the ignorant about the 'amart'

PREM-R

Is once again falling into the old I don't know any thing red shirt response. Allude to nameless individuals or families. I wonder how he knows if they are friends or enemies if he dosen't know them. sorry I forgot Jatuporn told him.

Was that what the red shirts tought in their red shirt schools on democracy? You all remember them they were put for training before they sent democratic heroes to burn Bangkok down. They failed at that also.

[Thai at Heart]

Polling agencies promise better methodology after wrong predictions in Bangkok Governor race

BANGKOK, 4 March 2013 (NNT) - After the Bangkok Governor election result on Monday proved the survey results wrong, some polling agencies have come out to admit their errors and explain why the true result deviated from the results predicted

Director of ABAC Poll Noppadol Kannikar admitted that the survey was flawed. He said that the reason the actual result was different from what the ABAC Poll had predicted was that voters might have withdrawn their support for independent candidates in favour of the successful candidate, Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

While this might explain why surveys conducted before the election showed Puea Thai candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen in the lead, it cannot explain why ABAC's "exit poll" result still showed Mr Pongsapat beating Mr Sukhumbhand by 12 percentage points.

Mr Noppadol added that ABAC Poll would seek to improve its polling methodology by enlarging its sampling size and using sampling techniques that would eliminate statistical biases. Meanwhile, director of Ban Somdej Poll Sing Singkajorn, whose exit poll survey also predicted Mr Pongsapat would win by a narrow margin of 1.5%, said that the 1.5% difference was not statistically significant enough to allow an accurate prediction as to who would win.

As for the reason why Ban Somdej failed to predict Mr Sukhumbhand's victory, Mr Sing said that Ban Somdej's team was not allowed to carry out its survey between 13.30 and 15.30, which was the busiest voting time, and consequently the survey result failed to reflect the population's voting choice.

Other than ABAC and Ban Somdej Poll, other polling agencies also predicted Police Gen. Pongsapat's victory. Suan Dusit Poll and Channel 7 had Mr Pongsapat ahead by 7-10%, whereas Suan Sunanta and Bangkok University predicted a narrow win for Mr Pongsapat.

-- NNT 2013-03-04

If the point of the poll is that or has to 100% accurate,.what's the point in an election.

They ask the wrong questions, to the wrong people in the wrong way. If you admit that, you have a chance of getting a closer measurement.

[Scott]

This thread is about the credibility of opinion polls. Numerous nasty, off-topic, baiting and argumentative posts have been removed.

Either stay on topic, or don't post. Continued off-topic nonsense will result in suspensions.

Enough already.

[zydeco]

Some people should just stop with all the guessing. It's probably all as simple as Thai pollsters not having a clue about how to conduct an accurate gauge of public opinion. Amateurs.

[Credo]

Polls serve a lot of useful purposes and I hope they take a very, very careful look at what went wrong in their methodology.

[AleG]

As I said before, polls are little more than political porn.