Latest Developments on the Election Front

dan10400 · March 17, 2006

talk about painting oneself into a corner.

so best case, election stumbles forward, thaksin remains in 'control',

and saves face in the thai tradition. but from now on Thaksin will be

perpetually dogged, questioned and hounded. the recent court win

of Supinya case over Shin, sale of ITV, and no more Shin Corp

able to coherce control over the media via advertising revenues,

the media environment is not looking as accomodating to Thaksin

as it has been in the recent past.

where is the saving of face?

and to those who say that there is nobody better that Thaksin to lead,

I have to wonder what Thaksin was actually doing the last few months

of last year. Thaksin's routine "i will not talk to the press until the stars

line up in my favor" routine was a self-imposed restriction probably

done in order for him not to put his foot in mouth and leak something

regarding the Shin negotiations. if he resigns now - zzzzz.

lukamar · March 17, 2006

EC to consider new round of registrations

BKK POST REPORTERS

Udom: Failed to provide evidence

The Supreme Court yesterday ruled against a Thai Rak Thai candidate contesting the general election in Samut Sakhon, leaving his constituency without any contenders for the seat. The ruling also prompted the Election Commission (EC) to consider calling a new round of candidacy registration in constituency 3.

Udom Kraiwatsunorn, personal secretary to caretaker Education Minister Chaturon Chaisaeng, was disqualified from contesting the April 2 poll for failing to vote in last year's general election.

Mr Udom claimed he cast his ballot during the advance voting, but he did not have a key piece of evidence the court needed.

Mr Udom did not sign a form which was to be sent to the Interior Ministry and used as official evidence that he exercised his right.

Without this form, the court affirmed the EC's decision to reject his application to run in Samut Sakhon's Constituency 3.

Under the law, candidates rejected from the race have the right to petition the Supreme Court to overrule the EC's decisions.

If the court rules in favour of them, the EC must finally announce them as candidates.

EC chairman Wassana Permlarp said yesterday that the polls agency would decide today whether or not to call a new round of candidate applications.

He said the EC would also ask the Constitution Court to rule if it has the power to do so.

Thai Rak Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra said yesterday that the party would field a new candidate if the EC agreed to call a new round of candidacy registration.

Pol Gen Wassana said the snap election was unlikely to be postponed because there were no candidates in a constituency.

Commissioner Veerachai Naewboonnian said polls should proceed as planned because the country's fate rested on the results.

''If the ''no-vote'' exceeds those for Thai Rak Thai, that means people no longer want them. But if they elect the party, it's decided."

''And once the election results come out, every party should sit down for talks,'' he said.

Mr Veerachai also dismissed concerns that some lone candidates might not be able to secure a minimum 20% of the electorate, saying it was not the time to take on this problem.

The Democrat party, which is boycotting the election, disagreed with the idea of having it postponed.

Democrat executive Jurin Laksanavisit said the move would only favour those who do not meet the 90-day requirement for political party membership.

The election law bars people with less than 90 days membership of a political party from running.

Jai Dee · March 17, 2006

University rectors maintain that they are free from political influence.

The meeting of university rectors insisted that they maintain political neutrality, adding that they will end their political roles if all parties lose confidence in them. Rector of Sukhothai Thammathirat (สุโขทัยธรรมาธิราช), professor Dr. Prachaya Wesarach (ศ.ดร.ปรัชญา เวสารัชช์), as president of the union, insisted that the rectors sincerely want to promote peace in the country, adding that they do not fall under any parties’ influence.

He said that all sides agree that the country is facing problems, but they still differ on many issues. He admitted that in the past, there were errors in news reports from each party.

Therefore, he said that the rectors will not reveal details until receiving approval from all parties.

However, he said that if all parties lose confidence in the rectors, they are willing to end their political roles.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 17 March 2006

Siripon · March 17, 2006

As I expected.... no way Thaksin will resign, asking him to step down is a non-starter. They should be working on reforms.

Thaksin has to be very sure that if he resigns his successor can protect him for some time because otherwise a lot of misdeeds will be seeing the light of day, the diplomats on stage at the PAD rally 2 nights ago were just a start.

If a committee is appointed to investigate his activities over the last 5 years and he is found to have been unusually rich like several ministers, leaders in Thai juntas and civilian governments in the past, ie Chartchai's in the early 90s, then his assets could be seized, a loss surely exceeding the loss of face.

penzman · March 17, 2006

Mr. Yongyut revealed that the best method for resolving the tension of the current political crisis would be to uphold democratic principles. If the people thought that Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was corrupt and immoral, then they should leave it to the National Counter Corruption Commission to sort out the issue.

What's he saying this for? It's a non-starter, there's no NCCC at the moment. Is he suggesting that PAD pack their bags, go home and wait for NCCC? What are the chances of that happening.

Is that his idea of a "... best way out for the political crisis..."? How's that for incompetence!

Circus clowns.

As I expected.... no way Thaksin will resign, asking him to step down is a non-starter. They should be working on reforms.

Thaksin has to be very sure that if he resigns his successor can protect him for some time because otherwise a lot of misdeeds will be seeing the light of day, the diplomats on stage at the PAD rally 2 nights ago were just a start.

If a committee is appointed to investigate his activities over the last 5 years and he is found to have been unusually rich like several ministers, leaders in Thai juntas and civilian governments in the past, ie Chartchai's in the early 90s, then his assets could be seized, a loss surely exceeding the loss of face.

That's exactly where I think he's headed.

Boon Mee · March 17, 2006

Well, there's now a bunch of businessmen from Silom up on stage siding with the anti-Taksin folks.

Thought Taksin had them in his pocket?

ColPyat · March 17, 2006

Errr... has anyone heard the opposition calling names and throwing insults at Taksin? Can you give an example please? It appears that your statement is not based on any facts.

Yes, the speaches of the Sondhi/Chamlong crowd are extraordinary insulting, and full of expletitives. You can hear that for yourself if you go and have a look at the demonstrations, or go to the ASTV website.

http://broadcast.manager.co.th/11news1

britmaveric · March 17, 2006

Well, there's now a bunch of businessmen from Silom up on stage siding with the anti-Taksin folks.
Thought Taksin had them in his pocket?

Hedging their bets???

Siripon · March 17, 2006

Errr... has anyone heard the opposition calling names and throwing insults at Taksin? Can you give an example please? It appears that your statement is not based on any facts.

Yes, the speaches of the Sondhi/Chamlong crowd are extraordinary insulting, and full of expletitives. You can hear that for yourself if you go and have a look at the demonstrations, or go to the ASTV website.

http://broadcast.manager.co.th/11news1

No,No,no! The Opposition here means the Parliamentary Opposition, ie the Democrats, Chart Thai and Mahachon; they have been very restrained, indeed ever since Apisit became leader he has insisted only himself and Ong-art, The Party Spokesman, speak for the party.

They know they cannot join PAD on stage having boycotted the election.

Only a few of the speakers on the PAD site are using profane language, most are just expressing their views passionately; don't forget in the course of 24 hours the number of speakers, contributors, musicians must be well over 50.

ColPyat · March 17, 2006

Only a few of the speakers on the PAD site are using profane language, most are just expressing their views passionately; don't forget in the course of 24 hours the number of speakers, contributors, musicians must be well over 50.

True, the Democrats are restrained, fortunately. Unfortunately they seem to restrain themselves also to only hold speaches down South where they anyhow have the supprt of the people. I am still waiting that they organise something in Isaarn or the North. In those vital areas they shine through complete absence.

But most of the speakers of the demonstrations do not only use profane language (unless "ai hia", or "ai chiphai" etc. do not fall under profane...), but also use xenophobia to rouse the rabble, and are even more nationalistic than Thaksin.

And, they seem to have no problem to welcome some of the dirtiest mafia style politicians, like Sanoh Tienthong, who has been repeatedly there.

Sorry, but the longer this mess goes on it seems to be nothing else than the same old powergame between the same old selfserving ######s and leeches.

Plus · March 17, 2006

the Democrats .... only hold speaches down South where they anyhow have the supprt of the people. I am still waiting that they organise something in Isaarn or the North.

I think I know why - Demcrats haven't got enough money to pay "Isanese" for attending. For all love they have for Taksin they won't go anywhere unless fully paid and fed.

You have a point about PAD attracting people like Snoh, but that's the uniqueness of this movement - people who normally woldn't have lunch together are united for the common purpose - oust Taksin. Their strength lies in having broad coalition.

lukamar · March 17, 2006

the Parliamentary Opposition, ie the Democrats, Chart Thai and Mahachon; they have been very restrained, indeed ever since Apisit became leader he has insisted only himself and Ong-art, The Party Spokesman, speak for the party.

They can't come out and accuse a candidate directly, it's against the EC, so they are covering their butt. They could have their candidates excluded from future elections and their party dissolved if the leaders are found to have colluded in falsely accusing a candidate. It's the same as they will all go vote so they can run in future elections.

jdinasia · March 17, 2006

Ummm the Democrats aren't running for office in this election ... why should they be stumping for votes when they have no horse in the race?

They have been acting with restraint and good manners for the most part and I am glad for that.

If anyone expected the situation at the Royal Plaza and Gov't House to NOT get more and more inflammatory as people take more and more time out of thier lives to try and be heard then they are not thinking very clearly. As the real edge approaches the rhetoric on both sides is likely to get less polite and more strident. Let's all just hope that the stridency stays peaceful!

There has been alot of comment out of the Privy Council recently and I think that is helping keep things calm! I keep hoping that "the whisper" I expect to be coming ... comes soon!

britmaveric · March 17, 2006

There has been alot of comment out of the Privy Council recently and I think that is helping keep things calm! I keep hoping that "the whisper" I expect to be coming ... comes soon!

I think you will find the wait rather lengthy.

lukamar · March 17, 2006

I think you will find the wait rather lengthy.

Even the Nation, my favorite bastion of balanced reporting, has given up their "The End Is Near" campaign. Someone, thankfully, figured out that "The End Is Near (Day 4)" or more, sounded a bit overly hopeful.

britmaveric · March 17, 2006

I think you will find the wait rather lengthy.

Even the Nation, my favorite bastion of balanced reporting, has given up their "The End Is Near" campaign. Someone, thankfully, figured out that "The End Is Near (Day 4)" or more, sounded a bit overly hopeful.

Yeah I did notice the Nation was back to the normal layout now.

Plus · March 17, 2006

"The whisper" Jdinaisa referred to has nothing to do with The Nation, and if you mean that it will be a long wait than you are not totally honest with yourself. Sunday night broadcast and the last press conference called by Prem are clear signs from HM's intimate circle.

"The End is near (Day 4)" is indeed an unfortunate title.

lukamar · March 17, 2006

"The End is near (Day 4)" is indeed an unfortunate title.

We will see what day it actually is but I'm doubting it will be (Day 4) if it happens at all. But time will tell us all.

sriracha john · March 17, 2006

Minister Yongyut says to uphold democratic principles
The Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, Mr. Yongyut Tiyapairat, stated that the best way out for the political crisis would be for those involved to adhere to democratic principles.

One might suggest that Minister Yongyut begin these "democratic principles" at home as his wife has just been sentenced to prison for almost 4 years for UNdemocratic principles....

jdinasia · March 17, 2006

I really am sad that this has dragged on so long already. I expected the PM to do better when called to task. Since he hasn't, I do think we'll see him being called to a palace in either Hua Hin or BKK sometime soon. If he doesn't step down then and the "whisper" has to be made more publicly it will be a very very sad day for the country!

britmaveric · March 17, 2006

I really am sad that this has dragged on so long already. I expected the PM to do better when called to task. Since he hasn't, I do think we'll see him being called to a palace in either Hua Hin or BKK sometime soon. If he doesn't step down then and the "whisper" has to be made more publicly it will be a very very sad day for the country!

And what if the whisper never comes? It seems to me that the minority has never thought about this prospect.

lukamar · March 17, 2006

And what if the whisper never comes? It seems to me that the minority has never thought about this prospect.

"The End is Near (Day 634)"

jdinasia · March 17, 2006

What if it never happens? Have you read about Thai politics in the last 40 years?

Now here's a new thought (I think) ...Some people here keep saying that Thaksin was elected by a vast majority blah blah blah. The PM is NOT an elected position in Thailand. The people that WERE elected are the same people Thaksin kicked out! The people elected the representatives. Yes you can make a strong case (that I would agree with) that the people wanted Thaksin. That however is not the reality of how Government works, and the biggest problem with Thaksin dissolving Parlaiment. He actually kicked out the government the people elected.

Normally a Prime Minister dissolves Parlaiment because he is not getting along with the Gov't. (IE the Executive and legislative branches are at an impasse) That was most certainly not the case here. His party had a lock on Parlaiment that could not be touched. He was in fact beyond even being censured!

The Prime Minister dissolved Parlaiment the day after his son was indicted for breaking the law (which he was in fact found guilty of and fined 5+ million baht). Why did the PM dissolve parlaiment at this time? One could make an argument that it was done to stop public discussion in parlaiment by the opposition that could not be controlled and was in effect safe from being sued/intimidated into not saying because of their positions as sitting members of parlaiment.

Now as to this enormous voter advantage that TRT had during the Feb 2005 election. TRT gained 60.7 % of the popular vote and 375 seats last year. Very impressive, though one could argue again that through populist measures that most of the world would see as vote buying and control of the press, particularly TV and Radio; that this vote was unfairly biased. I don't think that many people would argue that at least 10% of the population has not changed their opinions about TRT but in the next elections that would be obvious.

I think that PAD and the opposition parties should consider 3 things as deal-breakers for the future elections, and that they should say it LOUD.

The first they have already said. The PM steps down permanantly. The second; New elections in 120 days, giving all parties and all people time to be prepared as well as time for work to be done on the charter and time for abuses to come to light. Finally, transparency in the election process. That would entail a free press and real tracking of the finances of the parties involved in the election.

My final hope for Thailand is that the people learn to value pluralism in Gov't as much as they do with their neighbors! One group should never have the power to control so absolutely that other voices are not heard. The real spirit of democracy is doing the best for the most, while not causing the minority to suffer. It is not a football match with only one winner. In Democracy all should win on some level!

ps. These opinions do not reflect anything ...... other than the opinions of an interested observer. (Aagain ... I'm a foriegner living here ... I don't have a horse in this race!)

Edited March 17, 2006 by jdinasia

sriracha john · March 17, 2006

One less voter for the TRT Party and hopefully cause for her husband to ease up on spewing the garbage he does:

Yongyuth's wife convicted in making false poll charge

The Chiang Rai Provincial Court Friday found a ministerial spouse Salakchit Tiyapairat guilty for raising a false charge against a local politician in 2004.

Salakchit, wife of caretaker Natural Resources and Environment Minister Yongyuth Tiyapirat, was sentenced to serve the jail term of three years and nine months, pay a Bt75,000 fine and have her voting right revoked for 10 years.

Following the verdict session, she sought and received Bt500,000 bail pending the appellate review in 30 days.

The litigation ensued after a fierce contest between Salakchit and rival candidate Ratana Chongsutthanamanee for a position of chairman of Chiang Rai Provincial Administrative Organisation.

Weeks before the balloting day, Salakchit, who was seeking her re-election bid, accused Ratana of vote-buying. The Election Commission dropped her charge on grounds of lack of evidence.

After her election victory, Ratana sued Salakchit.

The court invoked the local elections law to penalise Salakchit.

- TN

jdinasia · March 18, 2006

ministerial spouse???????? there's an awkward phrase! I aint even gonna try the standard TV witticisms with it

Edited March 18, 2006 by jdinasia

lukamar · March 18, 2006

Thailand protests put Asia's democratic ideal at crossroads

Sydney Morning Herald

By Connie Levett Herald Correspondent in Bangkok

"THAKSIN aok bai, Thaksin get out" - the tens of thousands of protesters on the streets of Bangkok this week see only one solution to the present political impasse - the Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, must resign.

Never mind that 13 months ago an overwhelming number of Thais, including a majority of Bangkokians, re-elected him in a landslide to serve a second four-year term. Never mind that he has been convicted of no crime, or that, if the controversial snap election he has called for April 2 does go ahead he will be comfortably returned. The protesters say he has crossed a moral line and there has been one abuse of power too many.

"Thaksin aok bai." What happens then is an open question. Amid the clamour, concerns are quietly being raised on whether Thailand's new protest movement could be throwing the baby out with the bathwater in its unwavering desire to unseat the Prime Minister.

"I am very concerned; this is unprecedented," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, who teaches political science at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. "This has the potential to undermine Thailand … We have had mass movements in 1973 and 1992. But this is a democratically elected prime minister who remains popular."

Thailand's democratic roots are shallow. Mr Thaksin was the first democratically elected leader to serve a full term in the country's history. Yet few seem overly concerned with the precedent of removing him without due process.

"It may be difficult to understand from a Western perspective with well developed democratic institutions," said Gothom Arya, director of the Research Centre on Peace Building at Mahidol University in Bangkok.

"The accusation is some of the institutions are not functioning well. It's a feeling rather than something with clear evidence."

Thailand has had 17 constitutions in the past 74 years. The latest, the 1997 version, was hailed as a breakthrough in the evolution of democracy.

Mr Gothom said the success of the 1997 constitution was in creating a strong, stable government. The problem was that for the checks and balances to work it requires an independent Senate to fill the constitutional bodies with people of integrity.

"We assumed the Senate would not be influenced by money, but I strongly believe it has been," Mr Gothom said. Where the Senate has tried to act, it has been thwarted by the Constitutional Court.

While Mr Thaksin has been convicted of no crimes, in the court of public opinion, three charges are levelled against him.

1. Violating the constitution's article 209, which bars office holders from engaging in business. He handed control of Shin Corp, his billion-dollar telecommunications business, to his family when he took office in 2001. However, his fingerprints are on the recent sale of the company.

"He can say his son did it, but we all know," Dr Thitinan said.

The Constitutional Court last month refused a Senate petition to hear this conflict of interest charge. In 2001 the same court exonerated Mr Thaksin in a concealment of assets case. Standing at his side in victory then was Chamlong Srimuang, who now leads the protest movement.

2. Tax evasion and corruption. The family paid no tax on the 73.3 billion baht ($2.5 billion) Shin deal, which was legal but outraged the middle class, and allegations of corruption in government are rampant under his tenure.

3. Treason. The Prime Minister has been accused of showing disrespect to the king. This is the weakest allegation but resonates most strongly - this is a country where office workers freeze on the streets and come to attention when the national anthem is played twice daily. The protesters wrap themselves in yellow, the colour of the royal flag.

The problem for the protesters is Mr Thaksin still has plenty of support outside Bangkok. The urban elite dismiss this rural support as ignorance.

But Mr Thaksin has delivered to the poor like no one before him. Between 2000 and 2004 poverty in Thailand fell from 21.3 per cent to 11.3 per cent, the World Bank says. Farming incomes in the poorest part of the country, the north-east, have rose 40 per cent in that period. Whether the policies are sustainable in the long term is another question, but the rural poor love him for it.

For now, the situation is a stalemate: a prime minister who says he will retreat no further and a protest movement that wants nothing less than his head.