Future U.k. Pound To Thai B Exchange Rate?

[MAJIC]

No more sharp drops on the cards like in the first 2 months of 2013, but it's down to 44.35 now and I expect to see around 43.50 by the end of March. Then a continuing gradual decline throughout 2013, ending the year at about 39. Yes, I said 39. May bounce back to 45 or so in mid-2014, but you will NEVER see 50 baht to the pound again.

"NEVER see 50 again" that's what someone said last year,and it touched 50 in December,I would'nt be surprised to see it happen again this year.

That would now be an over 10% retracement from here.

That's true but still possible,fingers crossed.

[davejones]

I think the range of answers tells you that no one really knows. There's more saying the £ will fall and I tend to agree - no expert, but just what I read in the financial press.

My view, for what it's worth, is when it's time to transfer the money you transfer it - a slight change in the XR is nice but we choose to live here and it's one thing we have no say in nor control over so we have to put up with whatever we get.

LOL. The financial press has no idea. This is how it works. If oil goes up from $100 to $120, they start predicting that it will soon be at $200. If it drops from $100 to $80, they start predicting that it will soon be $30. It's the same with currency, stocks, property. Once they see it moving in one direction for a few days, they make the assumption that it will continue in the same direction and that the fall/gain will accelerate. You shouldn't listen to people like that. There's just as much chance of the GBP going up against the baht as there is of it going down. If it was so obvious that it was going down, then you could make a few million easily.

And then there are the professionals that want to drive it down so that they can buy cheap and make a fortune on the way back up.

Just stop worrying and go with the flow. You can't live your life worrying about daily currency movements.

Edited March 10, 2013 by davejones

[davejones]

Transfer half now and take your chances with the other half?

sounds most sensible, trend is down and currencies usually do that for a long time. I also assume at least a test of 40 in the near future

That is not true at all. Trends more often last minutes or hours. If you think I'm wrong, then please show how you came to this conclusion.

[davejones]

I'll start buying pounds when it reaches parity with the Aussie dollar

it wont be long before it reaches parity with the euro,1.25 about 4weeks ago now 1.14.

so expats in the euro zone are going to feel the pinch.

i had some euro's 3yrs.ago and got 48bht.today its 38. down over 20%.

its goner be a hard time for them that planned at say 50bht.to the £.

So you think because it's fallen 7.2% that it is now inevitable that it will fall another 12.2%. How did you reach that conclusion? Because 1=1 is easy to remember?

Edited March 10, 2013 by davejones

[PCA]

Transfer half now and take your chances with the other half?

sounds most sensible, trend is down and currencies usually do that for a long time. I also assume at least a test of 40 in the near future

That is not true at all. Trends more often last minutes or hours. If you think I'm wrong, then please show how you came to this conclusion.

I came to that conclusion because I have been trading currencies and almost everything else tradeable since roughly 20 years so I don't need lecturing from you what is true and what not. The OP asked for a specific time frame (4 months) to have a decision made about the transfer and I did agree with the other poster who suggested a half now half later split. A suggestion what I would do and what is yours?

[davejones]

Transfer half now and take your chances with the other half?

sounds most sensible, trend is down and currencies usually do that for a long time. I also assume at least a test of 40 in the near future

That is not true at all. Trends more often last minutes or hours. If you think I'm wrong, then please show how you came to this conclusion.

I came to that conclusion because I have been trading currencies and almost everything else tradeable since roughly 20 years so I don't need lecturing from you what is true and what not. The OP asked for a specific time frame (4 months) to have a decision made about the transfer and I did agree with the other poster who suggested a half now half later split. A suggestion what I would do and what is yours?

I don't know the OP's circumstances, his attitude to risk, how much he wants to transfer, etc, so it's not possible to offer suitable advice.

You only have to look at a currency chart for the last 12 months or so to see that it's mostly up, down, up, down, etc. Longer trends tend to be rare. But if you think I'm wrong, then please enlighten me with some concrete proof of these trends. If trends last for a long time then it would be easy to make millions. That most people don't shows that it's not easy.

Edited March 10, 2013 by davejones

[PCA]

I came to that conclusion because I have been trading currencies and almost everything else tradeable since roughly 20 years so I don't need lecturing from you what is true and what not. The OP asked for a specific time frame (4 months) to have a decision made about the transfer and I did agree with the other poster who suggested a half now half later split. A suggestion what I would do and what is yours?

sounds most sensible, trend is down and currencies usually do that for a long time. I also assume at least a test of 40 in the near future

Transfer half now and take your chances with the other half?

That is not true at all. Trends more often last minutes or hours. If you think I'm wrong, then please show how you came to this conclusion.we

well seems like you did not even read the original question from the starter of the thread. Beyond that it was you who said I am wrong and not the other way around. I am not going further than repeating that currencies have the tendency to trend long in every time frame once they start trending.

Edited March 10, 2013 by PCA

[Naam]

You only have to look at a currency chart for the last 12 months or so to see that it's mostly up, down, up, down, etc. Longer trends tend to be rare. But if you think I'm wrong, then please enlighten me with some concrete proof of these trends. If trends last for a long time then it would be easy to make millions. That most people don't shows that it's not easy.

are ~five year trends long enough to make millions? here are two graphs showing USDJP¥ 1990-1995 and 2007-2012.

p.s. a friend of mine made a couple of millions during the last 4 months. i hesitated listening to his advice, got in much later and made a few hundred k. and i am talking Dollars, not Zimbabwe Dollars... but US-Dollars

but i also admit there were years when my forex deals were not exactly successful

[nong38]

Anyone know how many Noodles to the pounds?

Edited March 10, 2013 by nong38

[davejones]

You only have to look at a currency chart for the last 12 months or so to see that it's mostly up, down, up, down, etc. Longer trends tend to be rare. But if you think I'm wrong, then please enlighten me with some concrete proof of these trends. If trends last for a long time then it would be easy to make millions. That most people don't shows that it's not easy.

are ~five year trends long enough to make millions? here are two graphs showing USDJP¥ 1990-1995 and 2007-2012.

p.s. a friend of mine made a couple of millions during the last 4 months. i hesitated listening to his advice, got in much later and made a few hundred k. and i am talking Dollars, not Zimbabwe Dollars... but US-Dollars

but i also admit there were years when my forex deals were not exactly successful

I don't dispute the fact that there are tends - of course there are. What I dispute is that currencies are in trends MOST OF THE TIME. Don't intend debating the point any more. Just look at enough charts and it's clear that most of the time is just random. Showing two charts with trends doesn't prove that currencies are in trends most of the time.

As most people on here seem to think that the GBP is headed for 40 baht or low, this is their chance to make big buck quickly. Just transfer ALL your GBP now, and in a few months you can buy back for less. Easy money if the people are right.

Another thing about trends is that you don't know when they will end, and often you can only see a trend after it's happened. In your examples, there are some big moves up, so at that point you'd have no idea whether the trend was over or not. Catch the trend and you can make big money, but often you miss them. Glad to hear you made some money though.

Edited March 10, 2013 by davejones

[Naam]

I don't dispute the fact that there are trends - of course there are. What I dispute is that currencies are in trends MOST OF THE TIME.

i am not a currency trader Dave (although i invest in a variety of currencies) and basically agree with you. but if you talk to investors who's emphasis is on currencies they will disagree with both of us and claim that a "trend" can be as short as several hours.

[54321]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

[davejones]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

Why so long before signing and paying? Rate hasn't been at 55 for years.

[54321]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

Why so long before signing and paying? Rate hasn't been at 55 for years.

it was about two years when I signed up on day 1 of the launch, it takes time to build. I had to pay installments during the construction process which amounted to 10% of the purchase price, and then the remaining 90% by the end of Feb this year. At the point of signing I seem to recall the rate being about 55, maybe I am a little off, maybe it was 50, maybe it was more (I can't recall), but the point was that the rate changes and where it will go is any ones guess

[TommoPhysicist]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

When you sign to buy something, cash, you should hold the money locally in that currency.

Seems like common sense to me ...... unless you like a gamble.

[54321]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

When you sign to buy something, cash, you should hold the money locally in that currency.

Seems like common sense to me ...... unless you like a gamble.

Common sense to you? did you know how the currency markets would move over the last two years?

Common sense if the pound devalues (as it has), stupidity if the pound appreciates (which it didn't). Yes I was happy to gamble and did not want to transfer my 3+million baht on the day I signed the contract, would you?

I am not complaining I am responding to the post to highlight the opportunities and risks

[Naam]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

When you sign to buy something, cash, you should hold the money locally in that currency.

Seems like common sense to me ...... unless you like a gamble.

securing all required Baht (and more) was exactly what we did in 2004 after deciding to live in Thailand under our own roof.

[TommoPhysicist]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

When you sign to buy something, cash, you should hold the money locally in that currency.

Seems like common sense to me ...... unless you like a gamble.

Common sense to you? did you know how the currency markets would move over the last two years?

Common sense if the pound devalues (as it has), stupidity if the pound appreciates (which it didn't). Yes I was happy to gamble and did not want to transfer my 3+million baht on the day I signed the contract, would you?

I am not complaining I am responding to the post to highlight the opportunities and risks

I don't like to gamble, you do.

I would have transferred the 3M on signing to fix the cost.

At the moment I am waiting to buy a house ...... the deposit is already in my bank ... just waiting on home loan or refusal.

Edited March 11, 2013 by TommoPhysicist

[davejones]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

When you sign to buy something, cash, you should hold the money locally in that currency.

Seems like common sense to me ...... unless you like a gamble.

Common sense to you? did you know how the currency markets would move over the last two years?

Common sense if the pound devalues (as it has), stupidity if the pound appreciates (which it didn't). Yes I was happy to gamble and did not want to transfer my 3+million baht on the day I signed the contract, would you?

I am not complaining I am responding to the post to highlight the opportunities and risks

I don't like to gamble, you do.

I would have transferred the 3M on signing to fix the cost.

At the moment I am waiting to buy a house ...... the deposit is already in my bank ... just waiting on home loan or refusal.

Me too. Otherwise it's possible to sign, then later find out you don't have enough money.

[TommoPhysicist]

Me too. Otherwise it's possible to sign, then later find out you don't have enough money.

Exactly.

[54321]

I signed up to buy a couple of condos when the rate was 55, when it was time to transfer my funds in order to pay for it I got abut 45, so the price effectively went up 20%. It could have gone the other way and if it had I would have been happy at making the right decision, as it happens.....

What will happen next is any ones guess.

When you sign to buy something, cash, you should hold the money locally in that currency.

Seems like common sense to me ...... unless you like a gamble.

Common sense to you? did you know how the currency markets would move over the last two years?

Common sense if the pound devalues (as it has), stupidity if the pound appreciates (which it didn't). Yes I was happy to gamble and did not want to transfer my 3+million baht on the day I signed the contract, would you?

I am not complaining I am responding to the post to highlight the opportunities and risks

I don't like to gamble, you do.

I would have transferred the 3M on signing to fix the cost.

At the moment I am waiting to buy a house ...... the deposit is already in my bank ... just waiting on home loan or refusal.

The deposit is in your bank, what about the rest of the money???

are you intelligent enough to realise transfering the funds on signing the contract is as much of a gamble as transfering them just prior to he due date? no one knows where the market will go, and no one knows the best route.

This used to be a pleasant site where ideas could be exchanged, instead it has become a site where people appear bitch for no reason. I made a comment about my poor/unlucky decision, sumarising the future rate is any ones guess, that's all

[54321]

Me too. Otherwise it's possible to sign, then later find out you don't have enough money.

Exactly.

thats the risk you can choose to take, it can go either way. and either way you go is a risk

Gone are the days someone can make what they feel to be a helpful comment without a bunch of people critisising the choice after the event . Hindsight is a wonderful thing

[davejones]

Me too. Otherwise it's possible to sign, then later find out you don't have enough money.

Exactly.

thats the risk you can choose to take, it can go either way. and either way you go is a risk

Gone are the days someone can make what they feel to be a helpful comment without a bunch of people critisising the choice after the event . Hindsight is a wonderful thing

I don't think most people are criticizing. I think they are just pointing out that it's safe to move the money right away. An example - suppose I wanted to spend a maximum of £100K on a condo and the exchange rate was £1=50 baht. So suppose I find a 5 million baht condo. I know if I transfer the money right away that all will be fine. Yes, maybe later it will be £1=60 baht and I would have done better to wait, but that is gambling. If it wend against me I could be in a really bad situation - contract signed and not enough money to pay. So for me, best to pay and know it's all done. Whenever you pay, the currency could move for or against you, and you could then say it was better to wait a few years and buy. There's no way around this. You just find what you buy and pay the price.

You say there is also a risk if you transfer the money right away, but there isn't, because you have everything in place and can forget about it.

But you said you like to gamble, so that is your choice and you're free to do that. Nothing at all wrong with it. Most people don't like to gamble with a property they just bought though. I don't know how much you paid, but if it's a condo, then it's a pretty big gamble. But if you have enough funds, then no problem. I'm certainly not criticizing you, as it's your money. I'm just saying I wouldn't do the same.

[yoshiwara]

Me too. Otherwise it's possible to sign, then later find out you don't have enough money.

Exactly.

thats the risk you can choose to take, it can go either way. and either way you go is a risk

Gone are the days someone can make what they feel to be a helpful comment without a bunch of people critisising the choice after the event . Hindsight is a wonderful thing

I don't think most people are criticizing. I think they are just pointing out that it's safe to move the money right away. An example - suppose I wanted to spend a maximum of £100K on a condo and the exchange rate was £1=50 baht. So suppose I find a 5 million baht condo. I know if I transfer the money right away that all will be fine. Yes, maybe later it will be £1=60 baht and I would have done better to wait, but that is gambling. If it wend against me I could be in a really bad situation - contract signed and not enough money to pay. So for me, best to pay and know it's all done. Whenever you pay, the currency could move for or against you, and you could then say it was better to wait a few years and buy. There's no way around this. You just find what you buy and pay the price.

You say there is also a risk if you transfer the money right away, but there isn't, because you have everything in place and can forget about it.

But you said you like to gamble, so that is your choice and you're free to do that. Nothing at all wrong with it. Most people don't like to gamble with a property they just bought though. I don't know how much you paid, but if it's a condo, then it's a pretty big gamble. But if you have enough funds, then no problem. I'm certainly not criticizing you, as it's your money. I'm just saying I wouldn't do the same.

Yes, some people are smart enough to have all their finances lined up 100%, but many take a little time after putting down a deposit to line up all the ducks. What we have discovered the last few weeks is that a currency can lurch down very quickly indeed and the pound has been evidence of that. Buying a new build with the intention of paying in full and transferringfunds 1/2 years down the road now looking to have accentuated risks. What I have this moment woken up to is that if I am at any time in the near future going to make an offer on a condo requiring transfer of funds I will request a forward FX quote even for a few weeks to cover the what is now a clear and apparent risk

[davejones]

Currencies have always lurched down suddenly. It's not something new. It's something that many don't consider though, especially those that move abroad for a new life. They often think that the currency will be stable for the next 30-40 years. There are a tremendous amount of people that get caught in currencies movements. Sometimes it's good, and sometimes it's bad. But people should really think about the risks in advance. Many don't.

[54321]

Me too. Otherwise it's possible to sign, then later find out you don't have enough money.

Exactly.

thats the risk you can choose to take, it can go either way. and either way you go is a risk

Gone are the days someone can make what they feel to be a helpful comment without a bunch of people critisising the choice after the event . Hindsight is a wonderful thing

I don't think most people are criticizing. I think they are just pointing out that it's safe to move the money right away. An example - suppose I wanted to spend a maximum of £100K on a condo and the exchange rate was £1=50 baht. So suppose I find a 5 million baht condo. I know if I transfer the money right away that all will be fine. Yes, maybe later it will be £1=60 baht and I would have done better to wait, but that is gambling. If it wend against me I could be in a really bad situation - contract signed and not enough money to pay. So for me, best to pay and know it's all done. Whenever you pay, the currency could move for or against you, and you could then say it was better to wait a few years and buy. There's no way around this. You just find what you buy and pay the price.

You say there is also a risk if you transfer the money right away, but there isn't, because you have everything in place and can forget about it.

But you said you like to gamble, so that is your choice and you're free to do that. Nothing at all wrong with it. Most people don't like to gamble with a property they just bought though. I don't know how much you paid, but if it's a condo, then it's a pretty big gamble. But if you have enough funds, then no problem. I'm certainly not criticizing you, as it's your money. I'm just saying I wouldn't do the same.

fair enough. I am saying that sending the money after signing a contract is as much as a gamble as sending it over a week before its due, each is a gamble, the former is a gamble because the £ could appreciate, the latter because the pound could depreciate.

yes, transfering the funds on the day of signing the contract offers certainty but it is still a gamble because you never know which way the markets will turn.

My choice cost me a fair bit of money but I was aware of the risks and aware it could have gone either way.

no further comment from me