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Hedging Against Foreign Exchange Rates


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Great comments, Captain. I'm in about 100% agreement. Many have extolled recent returns on their SET investments & I'm truly happy for you. But, as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Or, more bluntly, what goes up must come down. And, as been said already, it's not a gain until you cash out -- until then, you remain at risk.

Again agreeing with Capt H, is the value of free & easy access to information on publicly traded companies in the States. Disclosure laws are strong, penalties for misrepresentation are harsh & generally enforced. You can easily get current & correct info on insider holdings and all manner of corporate forecasts & disclosures. Among other companies whose stock I hold, I have a clear understanding of the strategic direction of SBUX, WU, PG, AMZN and others. Not all my chosen stocks do well (COH & DLB have been disappointing), but when they come up short I generally understand the reasons why, and how to respond. Few of the stocks I've bought have done poorly in the long run (2+ years). The worst I held was a Chinese mobile internet firm that I never should have bought (was warned by my dad); in the end, the founders took it private to the great loss of stockholders like myself. That wouldn't have likely happened with a U.S. corporation.

The moral of all this is that a little information & transparency goes a long way, as does compliance to the established "rules". I don't have this level of confidence with Thai firms or the SET for that matter. I admit, I don't know much about SET, but if it is run like most other Thai institutions then I'd prefer to keep it at arm's length.

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Great comments, Captain. I'm in about 100% agreement. Many have extolled recent returns on their SET investments & I'm truly happy for you. But, as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Or, more bluntly, what goes up must come down. And, as been said already, it's not a gain until you cash out -- until then, you remain at risk.

I did not mean to imply that I hold the Thai ETF that I mentioned. I don't and never have. I brought it up just as one alternative for an American expat in Thailand to hedge his USD/THB exposure in a straightforward manner.

Best of luck with your investing. However, are you using the TSP, which to us civilians looks like the lowest cost mutual funds in the US?

Edited by CaptHaddock
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In principle annuities are a terrific thing......if you don't want that money to go to a dependent.

Why?

Because you are getting paid out of a kitty from which some people stop drawing....because they die.

Yet if YOU die, you have no financial needs so not getting your principal or interest back in full don't matter at all.

Unfortunately the practicalities of annuities make them rarely or never a good option.

The fact is that most of your annuity is made up of return of investment not return ON investment. On this you will be taxed modestly......but wait for 20 years and suddenly the tax will gobble the money you might consider yours for being a lucky survivor. (debateable)

I have a friend who had an arrangement with his best friend that whoever died first would leave the other £XXXXXX.

Sure enough the other friend died and my friend benefited.

It seems to me that this could be extended to a larger group of people which would have the effect of a more smooth, though lesser, benefit from deaths of the other members. (never forget that if YOU die, you really lose nothing if you have no dependants or they're already taken care of). There could be 3 members or 10 members, or 1000, the only difference would be less volatility and more regularity in the "payouts". As there is no "earning" there should be no taxation.

Voila!

(all applicants PM me as I have to pre-order the cyanide).

To answer the OP surely IF u are sure on staying for good the best hedge is a roof over your head whcih you own or as good as own.

Edited by cheeryble
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I am presently transferring some of my capital OUT of THB....and also out of Thailand.

The Thai SET had a major correction on Friday. There will be another on Monday morning.

There is an old saying that "when a bell hop starts giving you stock tips it is time to get out of the market".

The modern version of this is "when TV members start giving you advise about how to hedge against a strengthening Thai currency it is time to get out of baht".

Welcome to the currency wars...

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I am presently transferring some of my capital OUT of THB....and also out of Thailand.

The Thai SET had a major correction on Friday. There will be another on Monday morning.

There is an old saying that "when a bell hop starts giving you stock tips it is time to get out of the market".

The modern version of this is "when TV members start giving you advise about how to hedge against a strengthening Thai currency it is time to get out of baht".

Welcome to the currency wars...

At noon on Monday the SET up about 2%??? I'll stay the course thanks. What happened to "the sky is falling?".
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SET at 4:30 pm was up over 3%, that should put the brakes on a "collapse".

Phronesis - I also pulled a large amount of Thai baht out and exchanged it for Canadian dollars. This is for to a trip we are taking and the favorable exchange rate (28.75 baht to my dollar) not lack of confidence in the Thai economy.

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USnet

Thanks for your concern. Rest assured my masters in economics from uk's top economics university and my diversified portfolio are all doing fine. Having said that I have a high risk tolerance- in willing to bet in more risky plays and losing a few grand usd is acceptable.

On annuities I should emphasize that I would only recommend for people with 1-2 million dollars in cash assets or more- those that can afford for peace of mind if you will- certainly not for the average investor.

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While your hedging against the exchange rate; why not get thinking about hedging against inflation aswell?

...or better still, hedge against the gold bugs trying to sneak in their agenda.

I was going to suggest a house with a good sized garden for orchard + veg growing actually. Maybe a few chickens. A few rai of farm land to rent in exchange for produce is an easy option.

Food security as well as a roof over head. A renewable water supply independent from the grid. Same for ellectric if can afford it - more ecpensive than gov power right now but I'm prepared to pay for the independence , happy to know fridges wont cut out in case of flood or Burma turns the switch off for what ever reason.

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USnet

Thanks for your concern. Rest assured my masters in economics from uk's top economics university and my diversified portfolio are all doing fine. Having said that I have a high risk tolerance- in willing to bet in more risky plays and losing a few grand usd is acceptable.

On annuities I should emphasize that I would only recommend for people with 1-2 million dollars in cash assets or more- those that can afford for peace of mind if you will- certainly not for the average investor.

i apologise for my [not so] humble view which is: nobody with $1-2mm liquid assets would be dumb enough to buy an annuity except a complete ignorant who won the lottery.

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Gold is a good way to hedge against currency volatility but you still need to worry about the underlying value of gold.

If you have an American brokerage account you can invest in currency ETF's (http://www.artremis.com/article/etf_currency.html)

Or you can invest in ETFs for Thailand without moving your money over (http://www.etftrends.com/2011/01/thailand-etf-enters-2011-high/)

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Gold is a good way to hedge against currency volatility but you still need to worry about the underlying value of gold.

If you have an American brokerage account you can invest in currency ETF's (http://www.artremis.com/article/etf_currency.html)

Or you can invest in ETFs for Thailand without moving your money over (http://www.etftrends.com/2011/01/thailand-etf-enters-2011-high/)

...particularly as there isn't any.

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Gold is a good way to hedge against currency volatility but you still need to worry about the underlying value of gold.

If you have an American brokerage account you can invest in currency ETF's (http://www.artremis.com/article/etf_currency.html)

Or you can invest in ETFs for Thailand without moving your money over (http://www.etftrends.com/2011/01/thailand-etf-enters-2011-high/)

and if you don't have an American brokerage account and are neither a U.S. citizen nor a U.S. person you can invest in anything you would like to invest, can give a flying fàrt about the limitations and restrictions Uncle Sam shackles his nephews and nieces and you can walk in any bank without having to fear "sorry Sir, we do not accept slaves of the IRS, Form 1099 and FBAR!"

laugh.png

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While your hedging against the exchange rate; why not get thinking about hedging against inflation aswell?

...or better still, hedge against the gold bugs trying to sneak in their agenda.

I was going to suggest a house with a good sized garden for orchard + veg growing actually. Maybe a few chickens. A few rai of farm land to rent in exchange for produce is an easy option.

Food security as well as a roof over head. A renewable water supply independent from the grid. Same for ellectric if can afford it - more ecpensive than gov power right now but I'm prepared to pay for the independence , happy to know fridges wont cut out in case of flood or Burma turns the switch off for what ever reason.

So can we summarise your strategy on life as 'Apples, Chickens and Gold'?

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While your hedging against the exchange rate; why not get thinking about hedging against inflation aswell?

...or better still, hedge against the gold bugs trying to sneak in their agenda.

I was going to suggest a house with a good sized garden for orchard + veg growing actually. Maybe a few chickens. A few rai of farm land to rent in exchange for produce is an easy option.

Food security as well as a roof over head. A renewable water supply independent from the grid. Same for ellectric if can afford it - more ecpensive than gov power right now but I'm prepared to pay for the independence , happy to know fridges wont cut out in case of flood or Burma turns the switch off for what ever reason.

How about a TV or internet subscription plan for the "Doomsday Preppers" and "Fox News"! That should keep the paranoia alive and well tongue.png .

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Naam. As I said , it's difficult for an average investor to understand - with all due respect people with money can afford luxuries that you and I can't. And lets be honest there are very few genuinely wealthy foreigners who call Thailand their full time year round home as u and I do;)

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While your hedging against the exchange rate; why not get thinking about hedging against inflation aswell?

...or better still, hedge against the gold bugs trying to sneak in their agenda.

I was going to suggest a house with a good sized garden for orchard + veg growing actually. Maybe a few chickens. A few rai of farm land to rent in exchange for produce is an easy option.

Food security as well as a roof over head. A renewable water supply independent from the grid. Same for ellectric if can afford it - more ecpensive than gov power right now but I'm prepared to pay for the independence , happy to know fridges wont cut out in case of flood or Burma turns the switch off for what ever reason.

So can we summarise your strategy on life as 'Apples, Chickens and Gold'?

Add in some high yield rental properties and a smattering of other investments, and you'd be on the right track to an all round safe physical asset plan.

"Strategy on life" would be summed up quite differently.

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happy to know fridges wont cut out in case of flood or Burma turns the switch off for what ever reason.

Ah....you found a place where the (strong) wind never dies, and the neighbours hate unspoilt views?

That would be a uk solution/ problem.

I'm thinking solar ofcourse.

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