S E T Index May Hit 1,700 This Year: Survey

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SET Index may hit 1,700 this year: Survey
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The SET Index could hit 1,700 points this year on the back of the government's Bt2-trillion infrastructure investment project and estimates of listed companies' 2013 earnings growth, according to the Securities Analysts Association.

SAA secretary-general Sombat Narawutthichai said that according to its survey, the Stock Exchange of Thailand's main index was expected to hit a record high at 1,704 points and average 1,625 points late in the year. The survey was conducted for analysts' comments on 2013 investment trends.

Bualuang Securities has forecast a high of 1,850 points for the index this year, while IV Global Securities projected 1,720 points.

About 94 per cent of surveyed analysts' weighting pointed to the Bt2-trillion infrastructure project as the most positive factor for the stock market, followed by 88-per-cent weighting for a 20-per-cent earnings-growth estimate for listed companies. Other factors included foreign capital for stock investment.

"This year could see public and private investments as major drivers for the Thai economy. The Bt2-trillion project is expected to drive the economy for three years," Sombat said.

However, the highest risk to the SET Index is a relatively high price-to-earnings ratio (81-per-cent weighting), followed by the euro zone's sovereign debt problem (75 per cent) and local political conditions including the borrowing act and possible future setbacks involving the prime minister (69 per cent).

The consensus for 2013 economic growth by the securities analysts surveyed was 4.9 per cent, higher than in the previous survey, which forecast 4.6-per-cent growth in gross domestic product.

Growth in earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 20.3 per cent this year, compared with the previous estimate at 15 per cent.

The construction-materials sector is likely to record the highest EPS growth at 37.41 per cent, followed by 33.42 per cent for the property sector and 24.84 per cent for banks.

Foreign investors are projected to be net buyers in the Thai stock market at Bt27 billion for the rest of this year, while domestic institutional investors are likely to be net buyers of Thai stocks totalling Bt8.125 billion, and brokerage portfolio to net-buy Bt2 billion.

The securities analysts urged the government and the Bank of Thailand to launch more economic stimulus measures with a proper tax policy and policy interest rate.

The government should accelerate its infrastructure investment and budget disbursement, while lowering personal income tax for more consumption and higher purchasing power, according to the survey. The policy rate should be kept unchanged at 2.75 per cent.

Investors may reduce stocks to 40 per cent of their investment portfolios after the SET Index' rises, and raise fixed income to 22 per cent.

The gold price is expected to stay at Bt24,334 per baht weight at the end of this year.


-- The Nation 2013-04-03

[belg]

big big bubble on the way... greece, cypros, rest of europe + usa, here us comming to join the rest of you almost bankrupt nations

[NeverSure]

What's the big deal, haha? It was 1,753.73 points in 1994 before falling to 207.31 points in 1998.

Anyone else see another real estate bubble, or excessive government borrowing?

Thailand gets almost 80% of its GDP from exports to a world that's in a world of hurts. Check out the thread on China's empty cities, where a real estate bubble represents 20 - 30% of its economy.

We'll be here to say "I told you so."

[soi41]

What's the big deal, haha? It was 1,753.73 points in 1994 before falling to 207.31 points in 1998.

Anyone else see another real estate bubble, or excessive government borrowing?

Thailand gets almost 80% of its GDP from exports to a world that's in a world of hurts. Check out the thread on China's empty cities, where a real estate bubble represents 20 - 30% of its economy.

We'll be here to say "I told you so."

Not that I disagree with your sentiment, but at least let's get the numbers right. Thailand gets most of her GDP from the servicesector= a little more than 50%. But a pertage of 40-45% of the GDP from exports is still a lot of money/ 170-180 billion US$ yearly.

[NeverSure]

What's the big deal, haha? It was 1,753.73 points in 1994 before falling to 207.31 points in 1998.

Anyone else see another real estate bubble, or excessive government borrowing?

Thailand gets almost 80% of its GDP from exports to a world that's in a world of hurts. Check out the thread on China's empty cities, where a real estate bubble represents 20 - 30% of its economy.

We'll be here to say "I told you so."

Not that I disagree with your sentiment, but at least let's get the numbers right. Thailand gets most of her GDP from the servicesector= a little more than 50%. But a pertage of 40-45% of the GDP from exports is still a lot of money/ 170-180 billion US$ yearly.

You're right. That was a flat-out typo. Much of service is in the tourism, still dependent on foreigners. Also Thailand's economy is small. Very small, but not to Thais and Thai investors. To them it could be everything. It's relative.

[falkan]

SET looks pretty red today together with gold

[NeverSure]

Could the SET hit 1,700 this year is the topic? Sure, the SET100.

I have no idea. None.

[Naam]

big big bubble on the way... greece, cypros, rest of europe + usa, here us comming to join the rest of you almost bankrupt nations

not to forget that 1 US-Dollar will soon buy 100 Thai Baht, a British Pound 150 Baht, bar fines will be declared illegal and the 7/11s will sell Chang on the basis "buy one, get three free!"

[NeverSure]

big big bubble on the way... greece, cypros, rest of europe + usa, here us comming to join the rest of you almost bankrupt nations

not to forget that 1 US-Dollar will soon buy 100 Thai Baht, a British Pound 150 Baht, bar fines will be declared illegal and the 7/11s will sell Chang on the basis "buy one, get three free!"

Or, 1 baht will buy 100 USD. I can't figure out which.

[Time Traveller]

What's the big deal, haha? It was 1,753.73 points in 1994 before falling to 207.31 points in 1998.

Anyone else see another real estate bubble, or excessive government borrowing?

Thailand gets almost 80% of its GDP from exports to a world that's in a world of hurts. Check out the thread on China's empty cities, where a real estate bubble represents 20 - 30% of its economy.

We'll be here to say "I told you so."

80% of it's GDP from exports and it's economy is still strong despite weakness in Eurozone and American economies, means things will look super good for thailand when those economies return to growth. Thailand is a great way to get exposure to a rebound in the global economy.

[NeverSure]

What's the big deal, haha? It was 1,753.73 points in 1994 before falling to 207.31 points in 1998.

Anyone else see another real estate bubble, or excessive government borrowing?

Thailand gets almost 80% of its GDP from exports to a world that's in a world of hurts. Check out the thread on China's empty cities, where a real estate bubble represents 20 - 30% of its economy.

We'll be here to say "I told you so."

80% of it's GDP from exports and it's economy is still strong despite weakness in Eurozone and American economies, means things will look super good for thailand when those economies return to growth. Thailand is a great way to get exposure to a rebound in the global economy.

Well, I was wrong about the 80% as someone pointed out. Fumble fingers. But to believe that Thailand can escape a serious shaking in the West and in China is just too much for me. Thailand is in a massive real estate bubble of empty houses and condos, the populace is going into debt for credit cards, phones, the cars and houses, all under government programs. Never has the average Thai been so far into debt for consumerism. Banks are out there a mile on real estate loans for empty and overvalued properties. The government, laden with corruption, is borrowing and spending money like it was water, and for not one good or helpful thing that I can see. High speed rail to nowhere, built with bribes? Rice scam? Car rebates putting households into debt and jamming the streets and polluting the air? Evaporated money for flood control? Where is the value to the country for all of this borrowing?

Yes all of this borrow and spend is stimulus, but only for as long as the borrowing and spending continues, and it can't go on forever.

I don't put more than I have to in baht these days, and certainly nothing in either the SET or the US stock market. Yes I might miss the rest of the rally, or the rally may be over. If I miss it I won't cry because I don't want the exposure. Risk/reward doesn't suit me right now.