Usd, Us Dollar - Thai Baht Exchange Rate Forecast ?

[Cyrus2Ray]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/632027-central-bank-chief-cautions-as-baht-gains-extra-strength/?utm_source=newsletter-20130410-1037&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

An interesting news article related to this topic, just thought I 'd share.

[Thakkar]

My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

I was mostly with you till you came to the part about "socialism" being the culprit. Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts. Entitlements did go up in recent years, but only as a result of

1) A massive recession (worldwide, no less) caused by unbridled capitalism that led to high unemployment and so unemployment claims.

2) Expenses on Veterans' care as a result of two avoidable wars that were fought more for capitalist reasons rather than State security.

A large swath of the deficit is a result of

1) Two wars

2) Unsustainable tax cuts

3) Bank rescues

4) Stimulus made necessary by the deep recession

High student debt, which I agree is a ticking time bomb, is also a result of following capitalist policies in education.

This is not the thread to go into this discussion, so I won't. However the result of all the above is as you say—you just have the causes wrong.

T

I don't disagree with you on your points 1-4 above. Those actions ARE socialist in nature. And the #5 you need to add to your list is, "The deadbeats of society in the US have never had it so good; subsidized rent, foodstamps, free medical care, free cable TV and cell phones". And if you are in illegal alien, most of these handouts are still available.

Sorry, but I don't think you understand Socialism. This is the problem with the American Right. Anything bad, or perceived to be bad is 'socialist' (like Hitler!); Anything that they once supported that later proves to have been a bad decision (the two wars) is rechristened 'socialist.'

People go on food stamps because they live below the poverty line and would otherwise starve. Many of these people have jobs (the working poor), sometimes two jobs. When working people cannot earn enough to eat, this is a result of unfettered, heartless capitalism, not Socialism.

This is going way off topic, so if you want to discuss this further, start another thread. I relish the opportunity.

T

[Tywais]

Moved to Business forum, not CM specific.

[Cyrus2Ray]

Moved to Business forum, not CM specific.

would you please provide a "link" to where it went, for those of us who are not search savvy , thank you.

[billd766]

Why anybody would have a Foreign currency deposit account in this country is beyond me. They charge a percentage for opening it, and also for closing it, and pay almost zero interest.

In relation to the exchange rate, my crystal ball was broken a few years back, and no replacements are available here. Maybe ebay.

You are correct sir and we have a winner.

http://popular.ebay.com/pottery-glass/crystal-balls.htm

Sizes, colours and prices to suit all tastes.

Edited April 10, 2013 by billd766

[Tywais]

Moved to Business forum, not CM specific.

would you please provide a "link" to where it went, for those of us who are not search savvy , thank you.

A link is still in the CM forum pointing to here. Just list CM forum topics and you will see this with the Moved arrow.

[el jefe]

Why is this even on a Thai forum? It's about Obama, Bernanke, japan, and Europe in a race to see who can devalue their currency the fastest.

First one to zero wins?

Japan is doing a great job now but the US is certainly on a steadier decline.

If you think the US economy is doing well, now would be a good time to buy dollars. 55555

[Seizhin]

Why anybody would have a Foreign currency deposit account in this country is beyond me. They charge a percentage for opening it, and also for closing it, and pay almost zero interest.

In relation to the exchange rate, my crystal ball was broken a few years back, and no replacements are available here. Maybe ebay.

I was planning to have one due to the depressing USD currency.

BBL staff once offered me but I refused, but since I'm receiving less and less, I thought of keeping USD first until the rate increases. If what you said is true then it doesnt seem worth it. :/ Dang it...

[mccw]

My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

Correct, you don't print $85 billion USD a month and inject it into the economy without driving down the dollar index. The only problem is that it is a race to the bottom between the Euro, the GBP and the USD. Thus the strong BHT against it's weak counter parts.

The Fed has hinted at increasing rates in the later part of 2013, but with Bernanke stating that the Fed will continue to ease until the unemployment rate is at 5.5%, who knows when devaluation will curtail.

Never. Its impossible to stop now. The fed is the only one buying government bonds, well 80% at last count and sure to be rising. Same story in Japan and UK. They can not stop printing because they are broke and no body wants to finance their deficit spending any more.

All the talk from Ben is just posturing to keep the idea in the markets that the dollars are limited and so stave off a total collapse of the currency.

[MANFROMBOCA]

Thai currency risk is a serious issue. If you stay in Thailand
the real value of your domestic positions could decline considerably.

Also, I wouldn’t be so sure that the Thai bhat does not
appreciate further. Purchasing power parity (PPP) suggests that the Thai bhat
is about 33% undervalued (i.e. Bhat should appreciate to about 20 per USD
Dollar). For example, a good proxy is the cost of a McDonald’s Big Mac.
Purchasing power parity states that the price of a goods and services (i.e. Big
Mac) must be the same, after exchange rate adjustment, in two different
countries. In 2012, the cost of a U.S. big mac was about $4.20. In Thailand,
the same Big Mac Cost only 78bhat (or $2.46 in dollars given exchange rates at
the time). In the long-term this price difference cannot exist, as the law of
one price requires these two goods to have the same price on a currency
adjusted basis. In order to equate the two goods, the Bhat shoudl depreciate to
about 18.57 per dollar (i.e. 78bhat/$4.2dollars = 18.57 bhat to
dollar) to resolve this discrepancy. While this may take time, there is clearly
significant room for further appreciation in the Bhat (see these links:
http://bigmacindex.org/2012-big-mac-index.html and http://bigmacindex.org/2012-big-mac-index.html).
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) places the PPP exchanged rate at about
this 18-19. level.

In the short-run, however, I could see the Thai government
intervening as further appreciation in the Bhat will hamper export growth in
Thailand.

[Naam]

the US-Dollar will not fall. period!

[yankee99]

the US-Dollar will not fall. period!

So true as what would replace it?

[55Jay]

the US-Dollar will not fall. period!

If I didn't know any better, I would say that was a "bubble" butt.

[asupeartea]

Dollar down until there's nowhere else as a safe haven, then up again. Thai baht up until the lemmings realize that they've bought into a bubble and most everything is way too over priced for the price to earnings ratio.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Pib]

the US-Dollar will not fall. period!

But you will have to admit the USD is being squeezed.

[55Jay]

the US-Dollar will not fall. period!

But you will have to admit the USD is being squeezed.

[aussiebebe]

The Feds have printed trillions of dollars and created a huge inflation bubble - I can't imagine the repercussions when that bursts, they just seem to be manically printing money to stop the bond market exploding into a massive sell-off. Lots of countries are racing to devalue their own currency and seem to be trying to build economies around money-printing and low interest rates.

[Naam]

the US-Dollar will not fall. period!

But you will have to admit the USD is being squeezed.

i think it's a very nice squeeze

[yoshiwara]

The Feds have printed trillions of dollars and created a huge inflation bubble - I can't imagine the repercussions when that bursts, they just seem to be manically printing money to stop the bond market exploding into a massive sell-off. Lots of countries are racing to devalue their own currency and seem to be trying to build economies around money-printing and low interest rates.

The usual story peddled by the gold bugs who have lost pots of money in their chase for bogus safety.

[asupeartea]

The world's problem is the the USDollar is the reserve currency for many and still the medium of exchange for more than half of the international trade of many kinds. The Chinese have been busy making currency swap agreements with many countries but it's a slow process switching. As the dollar loses its appeal as the reserve/exchange/safe haven, it'll diminish in importance AND be able to sink to its economically-valued level, especially with a total lack of fiscal discipline. All of this could be totally wrong if fiscal common sense is restored that leads to a resurgence.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[yoshiwara]

The world's problem is the the USDollar is the reserve currency for many and still the medium of exchange for more than half of the international trade of many kinds. The Chinese have been busy making currency swap agreements with many countries but it's a slow process switching. As the dollar loses its appeal as the reserve/exchange/safe haven, it'll diminish in importance AND be able to sink to its economically-valued level, especially with a total lack of fiscal discipline. All of this could be totally wrong if fiscal common sense is restored that leads to a resurgence. Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Don't confuse your wish list with what is going to happen. And this one isn't.

[yankee99]

The world's problem is the the USDollar is the reserve currency for many and still the medium of exchange for more than half of the international trade of many kinds. The Chinese have been busy making currency swap agreements with many countries but it's a slow process switching. As the dollar loses its appeal as the reserve/exchange/safe haven, it'll diminish in importance AND be able to sink to its economically-valued level, especially with a total lack of fiscal discipline. All of this could be totally wrong if fiscal common sense is restored that leads to a resurgence. Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Hmm lets see who's gonna trade dollars for rmb? No one that i know.....

[Naam]

The world's problem is the the USDollar is the reserve currency for many and still the medium of exchange for more than half of the international trade of many kinds. The Chinese have been busy making currency swap agreements with many countries but it's a slow process switching. As the dollar loses its appeal as the reserve/exchange/safe haven, it'll diminish in importance AND be able to sink to its economically-valued level, especially with a total lack of fiscal discipline. All of this could be totally wrong if fiscal common sense is restored that leads to a resurgence. Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Hmm lets see who's gonna trade dollars for rmb? No one that i know.....

i did last year. it was more or less a zero sum game. abandoned it after a few months.

[davejonesbkk]

In 1997 there were shop houses being built everywhere for what reason I do not know there definitely was not a demand for them. Now in 2013 there are short time hotels being built everywhere again I see no demand for them. Also there are many many big box stores being built such as global house you walk into them and there are always more employees than customers how can these stores survive? All these stores and short time hotels are being built with borrowed money. To add to this the government is borrowing 2 trillion baht. I think the Thai economy is going to crash and the baht with it.

Funny thats what I thought. But when I enquired in thai about why all the employees. It turns out that very few of the people standing around are actual employees. This goes for Glabal, home pro, and most other department stores. (the only employees may be the cashiers and people behind the desks)

What they are is representatives from their respective companies, for example phillips, toshiba, etc. Those companies pay for salespersons to push their products. In other words when you ask a person for a recommendation or advice about a product. They will only show you their product. So you have a situation where you have competing sales persons and you can't trust anyone for advice. Look closely they will usually have a logo somewhere on their uniform even though it may say home pro, they will only push their own company's. Very deceiving.

Actually I should start a thread about it.

Damn I never knew that, always wondered why they would seem very keen to push certain products or why if I asked about one sometimes they would have to scurry away to get another person to talk to me about it.

I dont shop in department stores much but from now on Im never going to ask about a product and probably just Google it on my phone.

You should definitely start a thread about this.

[asupeartea]

France plans currency swap line with China: paper, Fox Business-3 hours ago

Bank of England to set up a reciprocal three-year yuan-sterling swap line with China.

China and Brazil have signed a currency swap deal.

April 10 China and Australia started direct trading of their currencies on Wednesday.

- direct trading between the yuan and the Japanese yen in June 2012

- the yuan is also directly traded with the U.S. dollar.

Since 2008, China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 20 countries and regions across the world, with total capital amounting to over 1.6 trillion yuan (255.8 billion U.S. dollars).

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/12/france-plans-currency-swap-line-with-china-paper/#ixzz2QKZtjvzw

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Naam]

France plans currency swap line with China: paper, Fox Business-3 hours ago Bank of England to set up a reciprocal three-year yuan-sterling swap line with China. China and Brazil have signed a currency swap deal. April 10 China and Australia started direct trading of their currencies on Wednesday. - direct trading between the yuan and the Japanese yen in June 2012 - the yuan is also directly traded with the U.S. dollar. Since 2008, China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 20 countries and regions across the world, with total capital amounting to over 1.6 trillion yuan (255.8 billion U.S. dollars). Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/12/france-plans-currency-swap-line-with-china-paper/#ixzz2QKZtjvzw Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

China total exports in 2012 = USD 2.05 trillion (source: CIA factbook)

China total swap agreements signed since 2008 = USD 256 billion = 1.25% of 2012

[mccw]

France plans currency swap line with China: paper, Fox Business-3 hours ago Bank of England to set up a reciprocal three-year yuan-sterling swap line with China. China and Brazil have signed a currency swap deal. April 10 China and Australia started direct trading of their currencies on Wednesday. - direct trading between the yuan and the Japanese yen in June 2012 - the yuan is also directly traded with the U.S. dollar. Since 2008, China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 20 countries and regions across the world, with total capital amounting to over 1.6 trillion yuan (255.8 billion U.S. dollars). Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/12/france-plans-currency-swap-line-with-china-paper/#ixzz2QKZtjvzw Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

China total exports in 2012 = USD 2.05 trillion (source: CIA factbook)

China total swap agreements signed since 2008 = USD 256 billion = 1.25% of 2012

It still represents the foundations are being laid for trade minus the need for dollars. Step by step their size will grow. The dollar will be sidelined. Maybe 10 maybe 20 years

These Chinese are long term planners.

I major how large thier gold reserves will be in 10-20 years

[Naam]

France plans currency swap line with China: paper, Fox Business-3 hours ago Bank of England to set up a reciprocal three-year yuan-sterling swap line with China. China and Brazil have signed a currency swap deal. April 10 China and Australia started direct trading of their currencies on Wednesday. - direct trading between the yuan and the Japanese yen in June 2012 - the yuan is also directly traded with the U.S. dollar. Since 2008, China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 20 countries and regions across the world, with total capital amounting to over 1.6 trillion yuan (255.8 billion U.S. dollars). Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/12/france-plans-currency-swap-line-with-china-paper/#ixzz2QKZtjvzw Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

China total exports in 2012 = USD 2.05 trillion (source: CIA factbook)

China total swap agreements signed since 2008 = USD 256 billion = 1.25% of 2012

It still represents the foundations are being laid for trade minus the need for dollars. Step by step their size will grow. The dollar will be sidelined. Maybe 10 maybe 20 years

These Chinese are long term planners.

I major how large thier gold reserves will be in 10-20 years

discussing what will happen "in maybe 10 or maybe 20 years" concerning global finance is discussing science fiction based on a zillion possible intelligent as well as stupid assumptions.

[yoshiwara]

France plans currency swap line with China: paper, Fox Business-3 hours ago Bank of England to set up a reciprocal three-year yuan-sterling swap line with China. China and Brazil have signed a currency swap deal. April 10 China and Australia started direct trading of their currencies on Wednesday. - direct trading between the yuan and the Japanese yen in June 2012 - the yuan is also directly traded with the U.S. dollar. Since 2008, China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 20 countries and regions across the world, with total capital amounting to over 1.6 trillion yuan (255.8 billion U.S. dollars). Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/12/france-plans-currency-swap-line-with-china-paper/#ixzz2QKZtjvzw Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

China total exports in 2012 = USD 2.05 trillion (source: CIA factbook)

China total swap agreements signed since 2008 = USD 256 billion = 1.25% of 2012

It still represents the foundations are being laid for trade minus the need for dollars. Step by step their size will grow. The dollar will be sidelined. Maybe 10 maybe 20 years

These Chinese are long term planners.

I major how large thier gold reserves will be in 10-20 years

discussing what will happen "in maybe 10 or maybe 20 years" concerning global finance is discussing science fiction based on a zillion possible intelligent as well as stupid assumptions.

The gold bugs live on Planet Eventually where stupid assumptions are pure viagra.

[mccw]

France plans currency swap line with China: paper, Fox Business-3 hours ago Bank of England to set up a reciprocal three-year yuan-sterling swap line with China. China and Brazil have signed a currency swap deal. April 10 China and Australia started direct trading of their currencies on Wednesday. - direct trading between the yuan and the Japanese yen in June 2012 - the yuan is also directly traded with the U.S. dollar. Since 2008, China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 20 countries and regions across the world, with total capital amounting to over 1.6 trillion yuan (255.8 billion U.S. dollars). Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/12/france-plans-currency-swap-line-with-china-paper/#ixzz2QKZtjvzw Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

China total exports in 2012 = USD 2.05 trillion (source: CIA factbook)

China total swap agreements signed since 2008 = USD 256 billion = 1.25% of 2012

It still represents the foundations are being laid for trade minus the need for dollars. Step by step their size will grow. The dollar will be sidelined. Maybe 10 maybe 20 years

These Chinese are long term planners.

I major how large thier gold reserves will be in 10-20 years

discussing what will happen "in maybe 10 or maybe 20 years" concerning global finance is discussing science fiction based on a zillion possible intelligent as well as stupid assumptions.

The gold bugs live on Planet Eventually where stupid assumptions are pure viagra.

Nothing to do with gold.

Example; I've been looking at long term investment for a diversified currency income. I might of thought USA will bounce back because of dollar reserve status etc but since I believe its getting slowly replaced in international trade, so I've been looking at Canada and other rescourse rich nations or considering where there is space to grow and where they're not over burdened with welfare states entitlements etc.

doom needn't be gloomy if you pay attention and think through the what ifs scenarios and plan accordingly.

That the writings on the wall for the dollar and west + yen currencies is no problem for me, just needs properly dealing with. Its those with thier head in sand and in denial who are going to have a problem IMHO