Night of the Iguana: Old Fogies with young Thai Nubiles. Do they mix?

[geriatrickid]

The reality is that countries with natural resources, energy sources, arable climates, water and liveable environments will do well no matter what happens. Thailand has been able to avoid some of the rest of the world's problems because it had water and a strong agricultural sector. It's energy needs were previously sustainable. Unfortunately, as Thailand's prosperity has grown, so too has its dependency upon resources it does not have in abundance, chief amongst which is oil & gas. As well, Thailand has not managed its water resources effectively, seeing several of its key river systems and watersheds polluted and or otherwise destroyed. Compounding the problem has been a systemic rape of the forests which had acted to protect water systems, protect against arable land loss and that buffered the local climate. The problems that will arise over time as Thailand loses its access to clean water and arable land and as it has to pay more for energy will make issues such as consumer debt, or an inflated baht seem trifling in comparison.

[nausea]

Boom, bust is forseeable, cos that's the way things work. But mostly I see an upward trend in Asia as a whole. And a downward trend in Europe and the US. I suppose it depends how you look at the world. Is it an ever expanding pie or is it limited. For a time the British monopolised most of the world's resources, then the US took over, Now there's a few other guys wanting to get their fingers in the pie (after a couple of false starts, well you don't fight over nothing do you). The British seem to have got over their post empire phase, and now most Britishers would identify themselves wiv a small nation that can kick ass, but no pretensions to world domination. Like, been there, done that, got the t-shirt (we are the lingua-franca after all)..I can see Europe going down the drain but Britain standing out as a kind of post-apocalypse beacon. Like we will get smaller and smaller in our influence physically and economically, but culturally, well how do you destroy culture. The Romans conquered the western world, and were in turn conquered by Greek ideas. My hope, my dream, is that the Chinese, or the Indians, or the Brazilians, or the Africans (and where is the Darwinian princlple exerting its influence more strongly), will indeed predominate, but not their silly cultures. I'm not saying there isn't a place for them. Yeah, ancestor worship, white and black magic, it's all good. But maybe Shakespeare will mean something, Maybe, just maybe, they will adopt the ethics of the British Civil Service, where it doesn't matter what you are, where you are, or who you are. And here we get to the nub. Cos we need universal rules applied impartially to everyone, regardless of race, social creed, or financial status. And that is what the English ideal is about, This is what English culture, in its essentials is about.I don't say Welsh, or Scottish or Irish, cos we we were invaded and subject to a foreign power before you. OK, we invaded you after. But that wasn't our choice. The Scottish are the Scottish, the Welsh are the Welsh, and the Irish are the Irish. I, personally, don't give a shit about these people unless they are causing me intense personal problems. I was brought up in some kind of beautiful world where everyone was supposed to be equal, not financially, or physically, or mentally, but in some kind of innate way.. I don't find this in Asia, I find it in England. And this is why England will always be my spiritual home

[Naam]

worf-facepalm-13610_w.jpg

Naam is the master of making the condescending post seem enlightened and authoritative while imparting no constructive information.

for constructive information you were designated. but unfortunately you don't submit any information at all. is it because you want to leave us laymen in the dark?

[NeverSure]

worf-facepalm-13610_w.jpg

Naam is the master of making the condescending post seem enlightened and authoritative while imparting no constructive information.

for constructive information you were designated. but unfortunately you don't submit any information at all. is it because you want to leave us laymen in the dark?

Naam is the master of saying nothing and knowing nothing, while attempting to sound like the big guru. I've never gotten one solid piece of information from him, yet he pretends to rule over the financial forums.

Listen to him at your peril.

How about this, emphasis mine, March 9, 2013:

Link:

"Thai state controlled banks are in trouble. The SME Bank and IslamBank have combined bad debt of nearly Bt80 billion. If privately

owned they would already be bust! Krung Thai Bank’s lending portfolio has high exposure to government-related projects, The government Housing

Bank is lending to subprime homeowners, similar to the US subprime home market.

But the real story is the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC). The debt incurred by the rice and other crop intervention schemes now stands at a whopping Bt601,072 billion – and that’s not a typing error. Equal to 0.5% of Thailand’s GDP!

In the end the government will have to fiscalise the debt of the state-owned banks. Fresh figures indicate Bt700 billion already.

Unfortunately the monetary policy is focusing on boosting growth rather than safeguarding price stability. Incredibly, the government sees little risk in asset price bubbles?

In the “Keeping an eye on Excesses” report (27.02.12) asset prices in Thailand are growing to create financial imbalances. The BOT still keeps the interst rate below inflation, yielding a negative rate of 0.85%. Between 2005 and present the BOT has maintained, on average, a negative interest rate of 0.35%.

This reflects the governments pro-growth policy and has forced money into speculative investments.The Thai rate is already one of the lowest in the region and asset price bubbles are forming, yet FInance Minister Kittiratt Na Ranong still favours further rate cuts.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has twice doubled since 2009, rising from 400 in 2009 at the height of the US financial crisis, to 800 in mid-2011. Now it has almost doubled itself again by passing the 1,500 mark. Jarumporn Chotkiasathira has come out to warn of at least 120 stocks whose prices and valuations indicate a ‘bubble’. Banking authorities are igoring this and doing nothing to stem inflows into the market."

Edited May 8, 2013 by NeverSure

[AnotherOneAmerican]

The above commentary brought to you by 121 International, renowned and wildely acclaimed experts on precisely zip. For goodness sake NS, if you are going to quote something or somebody, please make it someone or something that at least has some credibility that someone apart from you and your dog might have heard of before!

I quite enjoyed NS post. But then I was concentrating on reading the content.

[chiang mai]

The above commentary brought to you by 121 International, renowned and wildely acclaimed experts on precisely zip. For goodness sake NS, if you are going to quote something or somebody, please make it someone or something that at least has some credibility that someone apart from you and your dog might have heard of before!

I quite enjoyed NS post. But then I was concentrating on reading the content.

Obversley, I often enjoy his posts but the content is seriously lacking.

[metisdead]

Inflammatory baiting posts have been removed.

[chiang mai]

All you ever post NS is links to opinions and opinions are like as* holes, everyone has one! Post links to reputable international bodies, reuters, bloomsberg, World Bank and so on, we don't care what Somchai Saytoomuch has to say and his opinion doesn't sway the argument either way, not one iota.

[NeverSure]

All you ever post NS is links to opinions and opinions are like as* holes, everyone has one! Post links to reputable international bodies, reuters, bloomsberg, World Bank and so on, we don't care what Somchai Saytoomuch has to say and his opinion doesn't sway the argument either way, not one iota.

No, I have posted my links. Now it's up to YOU to refute them. But you can't because they are accurate.

Everything I find and everything I see and everything I read tells me the same thing.

Now you go find some "better" authorities who will tell us that the Agricultural Bank isn't sitting on 700 billion baht in losses from the rice scheme. You show us that the real estate market isn't over built with too many units empty with many more coming on line, and too many being bought by speculators.

Debate me. But you can't.

[NeverSure]

worf-facepalm-13610_w.jpg

Naam is the master of making the condescending post seem enlightened and authoritative while imparting no constructive information.

for constructive information you were designated. but unfortunately you don't submit any information at all. is it because you want to leave us laymen in the dark?

Naam, I keep posting my information. You don't post any information. You always want to post a one-liner that's no help to anyone.

I keep inviting debate on the facts but I can't get any debate.

Come on Naam. Show us your stuff. Prove me wrong.

[Thai at Heart]

worf-facepalm-13610_w.jpg

Naam is the master of making the condescending post seem enlightened and authoritative while imparting no constructive information.

for constructive information you were designated. but unfortunately you don't submit any information at all. is it because you want to leave us laymen in the dark?

Naam, I keep posting my information. You don't post any information. You always want to post a one-liner that's no help to anyone.

I keep inviting debate on the facts but I can't get any debate.

Come on Naam. Show us your stuff. Prove me wrong.

The issue of property isn't connected to a currency crash the same way it was in 97.

So there may be a dump on property, but the forex implications aren't likely to be the same.

[NeverSure]

worf-facepalm-13610_w.jpg

Naam is the master of making the condescending post seem enlightened and authoritative while imparting no constructive information.

for constructive information you were designated. but unfortunately you don't submit any information at all. is it because you want to leave us laymen in the dark?

Naam, I keep posting my information. You don't post any information. You always want to post a one-liner that's no help to anyone.

I keep inviting debate on the facts but I can't get any debate.

Come on Naam. Show us your stuff. Prove me wrong.

The issue of property isn't connected to a currency crash the same way it was in 97.

So there may be a dump on property, but the forex implications aren't likely to be the same.

Let's have some facts please. The only way for the Agricultural Bank to get out from under the 700 billion baht it's out over the rice scheme is for the BOT to print money. Banks are going to need bailing out and Thailand is already running huge and record deficits. This whole house of cards is debt driven. Banks are in bad shape.

So what does printing a lot of new baht to bail out the banks (ala USA) do to the value of the baht? Where else does the money come from to bail out these banks? How bad does it get when the market realizes how over built the real estate market is? With banks offering 100 - 110% loans to buyers of real estate, to pay off the underlying construction loans, who's kidding who?

[Mosha]

I would add that Thailand is much more of an economic powerhouse now compared to the crash before. I mean in terms of manufacturing and exports; in fact, Thailand is like the Germany of Se Asia (although it might lack the expertise of the Germans). So I do agree we are in a bubble, but the economy may be more robust to cope with it.

It's partly because it is so export orientated that a strong currency is such a potential issue. Why are the Germans so determined to push austerity than push countries out of the euro?

It keeps the euro weak.

Those countries should never have been admitted.

[Thai at Heart]

I would add that Thailand is much more of an economic powerhouse now compared to the crash before. I mean in terms of manufacturing and exports; in fact, Thailand is like the Germany of Se Asia (although it might lack the expertise of the Germans). So I do agree we are in a bubble, but the economy may be more robust to cope with it.

It's partly because it is so export orientated that a strong currency is such a potential issue. Why are the Germans so determined to push austerity than push countries out of the euro?

It keeps the euro weak.

Those countries should never have been admitted.

Well hindsight is great. But what's the fun in a union of 8 countries?

[NeverSure]

Yes, the government is on the hook for these with a debt to GDP ratio currently under 50%. And?

Fiscally they are on an OK position. The breaking point is 80% of debt to GDP, because at that point you can't practically pay down the principal.

Hence why the UK is desperately trying to maintain this figure because unlike the USA they aren't the reserve currency of the world and have higher social obligations. But expect the euro countries, Italy, next to implode soon.

We don't know what the government's GDP to debt ratio is. We know what they say it is. And of course there's no corruption in the government.

They aren't talking about the huge losses that haven't been paid for from the rice scheme, or what happens after a few more years of it. They aren;'t talking about the potential failures of banks from speculative loans. We do know of two banks that have just failed, and we do know the Agricultural Bank is upside down at least 700 billion baht.

There are unrealized losses going back to 1997 from real estate loans. They are making no-down car loans and no-down or even 110% loans for homes.

You won't see just one card fall, but rather the whole house of cards will follow.

[waza]

worf-facepalm-13610_w.jpg

Naam is the master of making the condescending post seem enlightened and authoritative while imparting no constructive information.

for constructive information you were designated. but unfortunately you don't submit any information at all. is it because you want to leave us laymen in the dark?

its because I don't know anything

[Thai at Heart]

Yes, the government is on the hook for these with a debt to GDP ratio currently under 50%. And?

Fiscally they are on an OK position. The breaking point is 80% of debt to GDP, because at that point you can't practically pay down the principal.

Hence why the UK is desperately trying to maintain this figure because unlike the USA they aren't the reserve currency of the world and have higher social obligations. But expect the euro countries, Italy, next to implode soon.

We don't know what the government's GDP to debt ratio is. We know what they say it is. And of course there's no corruption in the government.

They aren't talking about the huge losses that haven't been paid for from the rice scheme, or what happens after a few more years of it. They aren;'t talking about the potential failures of banks from speculative loans. We do know of two banks that have just failed, and we do know the Agricultural Bank is upside down at least 700 billion baht.

There are unrealized losses going back to 1997 from real estate loans. They are making no-down car loans and no-down or even 110% loans for homes.

You won't see just one card fall, but rather the whole house of cards will follow.

Every stat I have seen in domestic and international figures I.e. world bank or economist puts it at 40 to 45%.

There has been no significant increase since the change of the government in ratio terms because growth has been OK.

GDP growth this year is likely to be 5% so that alone means they can borrow 5% more with zero ratio increase.

Google around. I am on my phone so can't copy and paste easily, but currently it is below 50%. If only the USA, EU, or Uk were in the same position.

Go look at the stats, Thailand is in an enviable position relative to many countries.

Edited May 8, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[waza]

I keep inviting debate on the facts but I can't get any debate.

Come on Naam. Show us your stuff. Prove me wrong.

The issue of property isn't connected to a currency crash the same way it was in 97.

So there may be a dump on property, but the forex implications aren't likely to be the same.

Let's have some facts please. The only way for the Agricultural Bank to get out from under the 700 billion baht it's out over the rice scheme is for the BOT to print money. Banks are going to need bailing out and Thailand is already running huge and record deficits. This whole house of cards is debt driven. Banks are in bad shape.

So what does printing a lot of new baht to bail out the banks (ala USA) do to the value of the baht? Where else does the money come from to bail out these banks? How bad does it get when the market realizes how over built the real estate market is? With banks offering 100 - 110% loans to buyers of real estate, to pay off the underlying construction loans, who's kidding who?

or selling the rice

[waza]

Yes, the government is on the hook for these with a debt to GDP ratio currently under 50%. And?

Fiscally they are on an OK position. The breaking point is 80% of debt to GDP, because at that point you can't practically pay down the principal.

Hence why the UK is desperately trying to maintain this figure because unlike the USA they aren't the reserve currency of the world and have higher social obligations. But expect the euro countries, Italy, next to implode soon.

We don't know what the government's GDP to debt ratio is. We know what they say it is. And of course there's no corruption in the government.

They aren't talking about the huge losses that haven't been paid for from the rice scheme, or what happens after a few more years of it. They aren;'t talking about the potential failures of banks from speculative loans. We do know of two banks that have just failed, and we do know the Agricultural Bank is upside down at least 700 billion baht.

There are unrealized losses going back to 1997 from real estate loans. They are making no-down car loans and no-down or even 110% loans for homes.

You won't see just one card fall, but rather the whole house of cards will follow.

Every stat I have seen in domestic and international figures I.e. world bank or economist puts it at 40 to 45%.

There has been no significant increase since the change of the government in ratio terms because growth has been OK.

GDP growth this year is likely to be 5% so that alone means they can borrow 5% more with zero ratio increase.

Google around. I am on my phone so can't copy and paste easily, but currently it is below 50%. If only the USA, EU, or Uk were in the same position.

Go look at the stats, Thailand is in an enviable position relative to many countries.

yer but the rice scam is costing 5% of GDP to maintain. Debt was 44% of GDP but is now closer to 50%, the 2.2 trillion baht loan will increase it near 60%

[Thai at Heart]

http://asiancorrespondent.com/59663/stoking-fear-thailand-debt/

41% is what I see from the nation report. It's not as though they love the current party is it.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

http://asiancorrespondent.com/59663/stoking-fear-thailand-debt/

41% is what I see from the nation report. It's not as though they love the current party is it.

Fear is a bigger influence than love.

You fear those who will lock you in jail without trial if you dare to print the wrong thing.

[aTomsLife]

Yes, the government is on the hook for these with a debt to GDP ratio currently under 50%. And?

Fiscally they are on an OK position. The breaking point is 80% of debt to GDP, because at that point you can't practically pay down the principal.

Hence why the UK is desperately trying to maintain this figure because unlike the USA they aren't the reserve currency of the world and have higher social obligations. But expect the euro countries, Italy, next to implode soon.

We don't know what the government's GDP to debt ratio is. We know what they say it is. And of course there's no corruption in the government.

They aren't talking about the huge losses that haven't been paid for from the rice scheme, or what happens after a few more years of it. They aren;'t talking about the potential failures of banks from speculative loans. We do know of two banks that have just failed, and we do know the Agricultural Bank is upside down at least 700 billion baht.

There are unrealized losses going back to 1997 from real estate loans. They are making no-down car loans and no-down or even 110% loans for homes.

You won't see just one card fall, but rather the whole house of cards will follow.

I really don't see how anyone can accuse NS of Thai bashing. We in the west just emerged from a meltdown fueled by, if not identical, a very similar scenario of easy credit. To think there isn't, at best, a likely possibility of a MAJOR correction here is naive.

[Issangeorge]

I just drove through my district town. Ten years ago there was one 7/11, one bank and one bank machine. Now there are 3 7/11s, 2 Tesco Expresses, 2 banks and one under construction, and more bank machines than I can count. Plus huge shopping complexes going up everywhere. There is no industry to speak of, and other than the shops no real jobs. I really don't know how all the new shops are going to be able to survive and pay off their loans. As I have said before shades of 97. I don't see a 100% devaluation of the baht as happened in 97, but I can see a 10 - 15% drop happening.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 6 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Thai at Heart]

http://asiancorrespondent.com/59663/stoking-fear-thailand-debt/

41% is what I see from the nation report. It's not as though they love the current party is it.

Fear is a bigger influence than love.

You fear those who will lock you in jail without trial if you dare to print the wrong thing.

Do I care if some property developers end up holding the baby? Nope.

Do I worry that much if a percentage of petiole people cannot pay the balloon on their off plan condo. No.

Do i get very concerned if they have corruptly lent with no due diligence to every developer under the sun as in 97. Yes

Have they? I believe not. Can Thailand survive a reduction in property prices by 15% yes.

Will it cause an economic implosion like the USA or EU? Nope, because they have scope to support domestic demand by cutting interest rates, and have scope to borrow.

Will Thailand fall on its ass as in 97? If people here knew how bad that was, if they recreate it again, the people will lynch the bankers, politicians and bureaucrats together.

Is Thailand in an OK financial position?

In comparison with just about any developed country it looks positively balmy.

Edited May 8, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[waza]

http://asiancorrespondent.com/59663/stoking-fear-thailand-debt/

41% is what I see from the nation report. It's not as though they love the current party is it.

That article pre dates the PTP government.\

Shown in the table of the cost structure of the government’s special projects over the next five years, it is predicted that if the economy grows by less than 6% per year the level of public debt is likely to reach and even surpass a shaky proportion of 60% of the country’s national income (GDP) _ a level assumed to be safe by many.

Mr. Pridiyathorn Devakula, former deputy prime minister and finance minister, said he was concerned the country’s public debt will surpass 60 per cent of GDP and may reach as high as 80 per cent by 2019.

http://asiancorrespondent.com/106811/public-debt-in-thailand-predictions-and-forecasts/

Edited May 8, 2013 by waza

[NeverSure]

Yes, the government is on the hook for these with a debt to GDP ratio currently under 50%. And?

Fiscally they are on an OK position. The breaking point is 80% of debt to GDP, because at that point you can't practically pay down the principal.

Hence why the UK is desperately trying to maintain this figure because unlike the USA they aren't the reserve currency of the world and have higher social obligations. But expect the euro countries, Italy, next to implode soon.

We don't know what the government's GDP to debt ratio is. We know what they say it is. And of course there's no corruption in the government.

They aren't talking about the huge losses that haven't been paid for from the rice scheme, or what happens after a few more years of it. They aren;'t talking about the potential failures of banks from speculative loans. We do know of two banks that have just failed, and we do know the Agricultural Bank is upside down at least 700 billion baht.

There are unrealized losses going back to 1997 from real estate loans. They are making no-down car loans and no-down or even 110% loans for homes.

You won't see just one card fall, but rather the whole house of cards will follow.

Every stat I have seen in domestic and international figures I.e. world bank or economist puts it at 40 to 45%.

There has been no significant increase since the change of the government in ratio terms because growth has been OK.

GDP growth this year is likely to be 5% so that alone means they can borrow 5% more with zero ratio increase.

Google around. I am on my phone so can't copy and paste easily, but currently it is below 50%. If only the USA, EU, or Uk were in the same position.

Go look at the stats, Thailand is in an enviable position relative to many countries.

Did it occur to you that the GDP could drop over night, skewing that ratio immediately? And, where are these impeccable sources getting their figures on debt ratios? From the Thai government? Do they include the costs of the rice scheme so far, and going forward? Do they include what will be needed to bail out banks?

Do they include the record deficits and borrowing by the Thai government going forward?

Do they take into account private debt to banks which can bring an economy down?

The answers of course are no, they don't.

[chiang mai]

Yes, the government is on the hook for these with a debt to GDP ratio currently under 50%. And?

Fiscally they are on an OK position. The breaking point is 80% of debt to GDP, because at that point you can't practically pay down the principal.

Hence why the UK is desperately trying to maintain this figure because unlike the USA they aren't the reserve currency of the world and have higher social obligations. But expect the euro countries, Italy, next to implode soon.

We don't know what the government's GDP to debt ratio is. We know what they say it is. And of course there's no corruption in the government.

They aren't talking about the huge losses that haven't been paid for from the rice scheme, or what happens after a few more years of it. They aren;'t talking about the potential failures of banks from speculative loans. We do know of two banks that have just failed, and we do know the Agricultural Bank is upside down at least 700 billion baht.

There are unrealized losses going back to 1997 from real estate loans. They are making no-down car loans and no-down or even 110% loans for homes.

You won't see just one card fall, but rather the whole house of cards will follow.

Every stat I have seen in domestic and international figures I.e. world bank or economist puts it at 40 to 45%.

There has been no significant increase since the change of the government in ratio terms because growth has been OK.

GDP growth this year is likely to be 5% so that alone means they can borrow 5% more with zero ratio increase.

Google around. I am on my phone so can't copy and paste easily, but currently it is below 50%. If only the USA, EU, or Uk were in the same position.

Go look at the stats, Thailand is in an enviable position relative to many countries.

Did it occur to you that the GDP could drop over night, skewing that ratio immediately? And, where are these impeccable sources getting their figures on debt ratios? From the Thai government? Do they include the costs of the rice scheme so far, and going forward? Do they include what will be needed to bail out banks?

Do they include the record deficits and borrowing by the Thai government going forward?

Do they take into account private debt to banks which can bring an economy down?

The answers of course are no, they don't.

Quite rightly too since those things havent yet happened!

Did it occur to you that the world could end tomorow?

[Thai at Heart]

Yes, the government is on the hook for these with a debt to GDP ratio currently under 50%. And?

Fiscally they are on an OK position. The breaking point is 80% of debt to GDP, because at that point you can't practically pay down the principal.

Hence why the UK is desperately trying to maintain this figure because unlike the USA they aren't the reserve currency of the world and have higher social obligations. But expect the euro countries, Italy, next to implode soon.

We don't know what the government's GDP to debt ratio is. We know what they say it is. And of course there's no corruption in the government.

They aren't talking about the huge losses that haven't been paid for from the rice scheme, or what happens after a few more years of it. They aren;'t talking about the potential failures of banks from speculative loans. We do know of two banks that have just failed, and we do know the Agricultural Bank is upside down at least 700 billion baht.

There are unrealized losses going back to 1997 from real estate loans. They are making no-down car loans and no-down or even 110% loans for homes.

You won't see just one card fall, but rather the whole house of cards will follow.

Every stat I have seen in domestic and international figures I.e. world bank or economist puts it at 40 to 45%.

There has been no significant increase since the change of the government in ratio terms because growth has been OK.

GDP growth this year is likely to be 5% so that alone means they can borrow 5% more with zero ratio increase.

Google around. I am on my phone so can't copy and paste easily, but currently it is below 50%. If only the USA, EU, or Uk were in the same position.

Go look at the stats, Thailand is in an enviable position relative to many countries.

Did it occur to you that the GDP could drop over night, skewing that ratio immediately? And, where are these impeccable sources getting their figures on debt ratios? From the Thai government? Do they include the costs of the rice scheme so far, and going forward? Do they include what will be needed to bail out banks?

Do they include the record deficits and borrowing by the Thai government going forward?

Do they take into account private debt to banks which can bring an economy down?

The answers of course are no, they don't.

This is not 97. The pressure was the other way with a fixed exchange rate. They have been steadily accumulating USD to help stop the baht appreciating more than it has already.

Do you understand how currency crises happen? They can cut interest rates tomorrow if they want and instantly lending gets cheaper.

In fact last time I looked they had more forex on hand than the UK.

Yes government borrowing is increasing, but the last article I saw was 50% of GDP by 2016 assuming a 5% growth rate.

Do you realise that Greece is 140% of GDP. It is a million miles away on terms of fiscal crisis. The UK is 85% and the USA 90%. Everyone in the developed world is virtually of not already bankrupt and you are telling be that 45% of debt to GDP is a crisis number?

[NeverSure]

http://asiancorrespondent.com/59663/stoking-fear-thailand-debt/

41% is what I see from the nation report. It's not as though they love the current party is it.

Fear is a bigger influence than love.

You fear those who will lock you in jail without trial if you dare to print the wrong thing.

Do I care if some property developers end up holding the baby? Nope.

Do I worry that much if a percentage of petiole people cannot pay the balloon on their off plan condo. No.

Do i get very concerned if they have corruptly lent with no due diligence to every developer under the sun as in 97. Yes

Have they? I believe not. Can Thailand survive a reduction in property prices by 15% yes.

Will it cause an economic implosion like the USA or EU? Nope, because they have scope to support domestic demand by cutting interest rates, and have scope to borrow.

Will Thailand fall on its ass as in 97? If people here knew how bad that was, if they recreate it again, the people will lynch the bankers, politicians and bureaucrats together.

Is Thailand in an OK financial position?

In comparison with just about any developed country it looks positively balmy.

Busts are always followed by euphoria. It's the unwavering faith in the face of the truth that allows things to accelerate into a bubble. Right up until the crash, the majority will always believe there is no end in sight. If that wasn't true, the bubble couldn't develop. People would begin to back off and get conservative in lending, borrowing, buying, developing etc. if they had any clue there was an end in sight.

But no, the bust always catches most people, including "experts" by surprise. That's why banks and Wall Street and main street are standing there shaking their heads the day after, with their pockets turned inside out.

You don't have to be an expert. You just need common sense. Just look around you.

The current government is made up of clowns who think they can tap the national treasure to make themselves look good and get elected. The utter failure and massive expense of the rice scheme is just a small window through which you can see their ignorance and their arrogance.

The unsustainable real estate boom in condos, commercial properties including big malls, etc., is another window if anyone with common sense will just look.

The no down car scheme and the no down home buyers' scheme are two more windows.

Massive government deficits and borrowing and weakness of banks are more windows to see through.

Enough of those windows, and the light floods in for anyone who will look.

[NeverSure]

We don't know what the government's GDP to debt ratio is. We know what they say it is. And of course there's no corruption in the government.

They aren't talking about the huge losses that haven't been paid for from the rice scheme, or what happens after a few more years of it. They aren;'t talking about the potential failures of banks from speculative loans. We do know of two banks that have just failed, and we do know the Agricultural Bank is upside down at least 700 billion baht.

There are unrealized losses going back to 1997 from real estate loans. They are making no-down car loans and no-down or even 110% loans for homes.

You won't see just one card fall, but rather the whole house of cards will follow.

Every stat I have seen in domestic and international figures I.e. world bank or economist puts it at 40 to 45%.

There has been no significant increase since the change of the government in ratio terms because growth has been OK.

GDP growth this year is likely to be 5% so that alone means they can borrow 5% more with zero ratio increase.

Google around. I am on my phone so can't copy and paste easily, but currently it is below 50%. If only the USA, EU, or Uk were in the same position.

Go look at the stats, Thailand is in an enviable position relative to many countries.

Did it occur to you that the GDP could drop over night, skewing that ratio immediately? And, where are these impeccable sources getting their figures on debt ratios? From the Thai government? Do they include the costs of the rice scheme so far, and going forward? Do they include what will be needed to bail out banks?

Do they include the record deficits and borrowing by the Thai government going forward?

Do they take into account private debt to banks which can bring an economy down?

The answers of course are no, they don't.

Quite rightly too since those things havent yet happened!

Did it occur to you that the world could end tomorow?

Please continue the silly comments founded in nothing. They are so entertaining.