Rising Baht Could Trigger Crisis: Thaksin

[wildorchid]

I think it goes without saying that an independent central bank is on the whole a good thing.

Comparing japans crisis and Thailand is a very very big stretch.

Mostly I agree with you, but I do think that the central bank should reduce the interest rate put less upward pressure on the Thai baht which dose make thai export less competitive, we don't need self inflicted economic injury.

[chiangmaikelly]

He said, "an increase in baht's value of an additional Bt1 per US dollar would result in a loss of 0.7 per cent in GDP." Do you think he is wrong?

.

I don't know. What do you think?

The only thing I have questioned is that PTP supporters have said the economy is going great guns ... but Thaksin doesn't seem to agree.

Sorry I don't think PTP supporters and the state of the economy is the topic. I think the topic is rising baht could trigger a crisis.

[wildorchid]

"They [the Japanese] have a holistic approach to dealing with their economic problems. Their monetary policy and their fiscal policy are united," Thaksin said.

Yea right, that's why the Japanese economy has done absolutely great since the early 90's....wait, wait, but the Japanese economy has been mired in the mud since the early 90's and the many different ensuring Japanese governments tried their own holistic approach which had little impact and only in the last year shown promising signs under Abeconomics. But it does seem Abeconomics and Bank of Japan's quantitative easing (QE) program, which is also having the effect of depreciating the yen, is having the desired effect in getting the economy pulled out of the mud. Just hope Japan can afford the QE tow truck bill. I also hope Thailand can afford the billions (or is it trillions now) of baht the PTP government plans to borrow. Buy hey, many western nations like numerous European countries and the U.S. are borrowing "billions and trillions" each year, so why shouldn't Thailand.

All correct your right, but look at the Chinese Yuan, kept artificially low for years and look at their economy.

[whybother]

I don't know. What do you think?

The only thing I have questioned is that PTP supporters have said the economy is going great guns ... but Thaksin doesn't seem to agree.

Sorry I don't think PTP supporters and the state of the economy is the topic. I think the topic is rising baht could trigger a crisis.

Maybe you should read the OP.

Thaksin said the current economic indexes were worrying. "I like looking at different indexes and often get alarmed," he said.

and try answering questions rather than avoiding them.

[tomross46]

Hmmm so you send your clone PM/Salesperson around the world selling Thai debt bonds for foreign currency. Then force the Baht to devalue by say 25% and you have made a pretty penny. High Baht low rice prices the losses just keep coming, the cabinet, CC and BOT are out of control.

" but his warnings were not heeded and the financial crisis of 1997 ensued."

Cry me a river.............

Thaksin crying.jpg FIGJAM

luckily he doesn't need the luxury of hindsight because he's always right.

In 1997 and 98 there were rummer's that some politicians had prior warning on the flotation of the Baht and moved billions of dollars off shore, Than when the Baht went from 25 to 50 to the dollar, they brought the money back. Take out 1 Billion dollars and bring back 1 billion dollars, now you have 50 billion Baht, good thinking.

[wildorchid]

Whatever he says business wise, i would tend to listen. For all his faults, as a business man he blows everyone out of the water when it comes to investment decisions and getting things done. Its one of the reasons he is voted in by big business, he actually gets things done rather than procrastinate for 4 years.

Vast majority of Thaksin's empire has been built on monopoly contracts. Before his first one with the police department, arranged in no small part thanks to his wife's family connections, all his business ideas achieved little or nothing. Born in a Western style free market economy, i suggest he'd be a complete nobody right now, business-wise anyway.

If its that easy, everyone would do it. I am not denying corruption, monopoly etc whatever you want to allege, but in a country like Thailand when people would sell their own mother for a few baht, you need to be a pretty shrewd operator to come out on top. How much did he make from Manchester City?

If you think he is a nobody you are extremely naive.

Reading problem again??

"Born in a Western style free market economy, i suggest he'd be a complete nobody right now, business-wise anyway." Which is a lot different than "thinking he IS a nobody".

In addition to that, for everyone that has rich families, marry into richer families, and have connections with police and government to get sweet heart corrupt deals, it is that easy.

Unfortunately, not everyone has that money or those connections.

Most people who have some kind of leverage will use it to their advantage, and yes POLERTITIONS ALSO, BOTH RED'S, YELLOW'S, ETC, so wake up and smell the roses.

[whybother]

Most people who have some kind of leverage will use it to their advantage, and yes POLERTITIONS ALSO, BOTH RED'S, YELLOW'S, ETC, so wake up and smell the roses.

.

So you're OK with Thaksin getting his start through monopolies and corruption?

[johnlandy]

Hmmm so you send your clone PM/Salesperson around the world selling Thai debt bonds for foreign currency. Then force the Baht to devalue by say 25% and you have made a pretty penny. High Baht low rice prices the losses just keep coming, the cabinet, CC and BOT are out of control.

" but his warnings were not heeded and the financial crisis of 1997 ensued."

Cry me a river.............

Thaksin crying.jpg FIGJAM

And in 1997, who benefitted?? The sleaze bag on the run.....

[Markaew]

I think it goes without saying that an independent central bank is on the whole a good thing.

Comparing japans crisis and Thailand is a very very big stretch.

Yes it is. In fact, a finance minister that attempts to meddle with the central bank risks destroying his country's credit rating.

The central bank must operate at arm's length and must be apolitical.

In theory. Seldom happens.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed. Just because Thaksin is in the topic is not an invitation to rehash the coup or his past. Stay on the topic: Rising Baht Could Trigger Crisis: Thaksin, here's a quick link to go back to the OP and refresh.

[ChrisY1]

Can you imagine this guy returning to Thailand under their amnesty law, you would never be able to shut him up , then again there are some people ,I am sure ,that would just love to shut he's mouth, for good.

Probably is the major reason for him not returning to Thailand....even if an amnesty is given....being the coward he really is.....he's just too scared.

[chiangmaikelly]

I don't know. What do you think?

The only thing I have questioned is that PTP supporters have said the economy is going great guns ... but Thaksin doesn't seem to agree.

Sorry I don't think PTP supporters and the state of the economy is the topic. I think the topic is rising baht could trigger a crisis.

Maybe you should read the OP.

>Thaksin said the current economic indexes were worrying. "I like looking at different indexes and often get alarmed," he said.

and try answering questions rather than avoiding them.

I read the OP again and I cannot find any mention of PTP supporters. Are you sure you saw it in the OP? I can't find anywhere that PTP supporters are mentioned or they say the economy is going great guns. Maybe you should start a thread about it.

[khunken]

It's all about control. It's certainly Thaksin's norm to dislike any agency like the BOT having independence. The CC is another hated for it's independence.

He had more than a spot of bother with an independent Auditor General when in non-virtual power. He failed to get a crony appointed to the position by trying to use trumped up 'charges' about her election.

IMO the BOT is doing a reasonable job in managing the Thai economy. Reducing interest rates has to be balanced against it causing more inflation (which is the bank's mandate. The bank is not sitting on it's hands - it buys US$ whenever the exchange rate starts surging. What it is moving towards is putting a cost on short-term inflows that are purely for buying Government bonds.

Give me Prasarn over PTP (especially Thaksin) any day to do what's right for the country.

[Thai at Heart]

"They [the Japanese] have a holistic approach to dealing with their economic problems. Their monetary policy and their fiscal policy are united," Thaksin said.

Yea right, that's why the Japanese economy has done absolutely great since the early 90's....wait, wait, but the Japanese economy has been mired in the mud since the early 90's and the many different ensuring Japanese governments tried their own holistic approach which had little impact and only in the last year shown promising signs under Abeconomics. But it does seem Abeconomics and Bank of Japan's quantitative easing (QE) program, which is also having the effect of depreciating the yen, is having the desired effect in getting the economy pulled out of the mud. Just hope Japan can afford the QE tow truck bill. I also hope Thailand can afford the billions (or is it trillions now) of baht the PTP government plans to borrow. Buy hey, many western nations like numerous European countries and the U.S. are borrowing "billions and trillions" each year, so why shouldn't Thailand.

All correct your right, but look at the Chinese Yuan, kept artificially low for years and look at their economy.

Well, the Japanese are giving the Chinese a little taste of their own medicine. Korea and China are very worried about the yen devaluation.

[rixalex]

Reading problem again??

"Born in a Western style free market economy, i suggest he'd be a complete nobody right now, business-wise anyway." Which is a lot different than "thinking he IS a nobody".

In addition to that, for everyone that has rich families, marry into richer families, and have connections with police and government to get sweet heart corrupt deals, it is that easy.

Unfortunately, not everyone has that money or those connections.

Most people who have some kind of leverage will use it to their advantage, and yes POLERTITIONS ALSO, BOTH RED'S, YELLOW'S, ETC, so wake up and smell the roses.

Nobody is saying that Thaksin is particularly unique in Thailand in the way he has used his leverage and connections to get where he is, what was being contested was the idea of Thaksin as being some sort of business genius / guru whose every utterance on matters of the economy must be listened to.

You need to look not simply at what someone has achieved, but how they have achieved it.

[Postmaster]

The man is a crook and bad for Thailand. Why is he given a platform ?

[rijb]

What would be the reaction if Abhisit, instead of Thaksin, raised the alarm about the rising Baht?

[chiangmaikelly]

Reading problem again??

"Born in a Western style free market economy, i suggest he'd be a complete nobody right now, business-wise anyway." Which is a lot different than "thinking he IS a nobody".

In addition to that, for everyone that has rich families, marry into richer families, and have connections with police and government to get sweet heart corrupt deals, it is that easy.

Unfortunately, not everyone has that money or those connections.

Most people who have some kind of leverage will use it to their advantage, and yes POLERTITIONS ALSO, BOTH RED'S, YELLOW'S, ETC, so wake up and smell the roses.

Nobody is saying that Thaksin is particularly unique in Thailand in the way he has used his leverage and connections to get where he is, what was being contested was the idea of Thaksin as being some sort of business genius / guru whose every utterance on matters of the economy must be listened to.

You need to look not simply at what someone has achieved, but how they have achieved it.

And how would looking at how he achieved it help me understand that the rising baht could trigger a crisis?

[chainarong]

Can you imagine this guy returning to Thailand under their amnesty law, you would never be able to shut him up , then again there are some people ,I am sure ,that would just love to shut he's mouth, for good.

So you would like to see the baht go up and the pound go down some more?

I don't live on a shoe string, so the Oz dollar don't worry me and neither dose the rest.

[hellodolly]

Most people who have some kind of leverage will use it to their advantage, and yes POLERTITIONS ALSO, BOTH RED'S, YELLOW'S, ETC, so wake up and smell the roses.

.

So you're OK with Thaksin getting his start through monopolies and corruption?

Actually that is not how he got his start. It is how he did his business.

He got his start with family money and marring into money.

There is no country in the developed world or most of the third world countries he would have achieved any success if he did not come from and married into money.

As you point out he did use corruption. First it gave him a monopoly which in turn led to more money which in turn led to ability to buy power and people,

[rijb]

Most people who have some kind of leverage will use it to their advantage, and yes POLERTITIONS ALSO, BOTH RED'S, YELLOW'S, ETC, so wake up and smell the roses.

.

So you're OK with Thaksin getting his start through monopolies and corruption?

Actually that is not how he got his start. It is how he did his business.

He got his start with family money and marring into money.

There is no country in the developed world or most of the third world countries he would have achieved any success if he did not come from and married into money.

As you point out he did use corruption. First it gave him a monopoly which in turn led to more money which in turn led to ability to buy power and people,

And how many people here would take the high ground and pass up those opportunities.

[metisdead]

Baiting posts inviting off topic discussions have been removed.

[rubl]

Most people who have some kind of leverage will use it to their advantage, and yes POLERTITIONS ALSO, BOTH RED'S, YELLOW'S, ETC, so wake up and smell the roses.

.

So you're OK with Thaksin getting his start through monopolies and corruption?

Actually that is not how he got his start. It is how he did his business.

He got his start with family money and marring into money.

There is no country in the developed world or most of the third world countries he would have achieved any success if he did not come from and married into money.

As you point out he did use corruption. First it gave him a monopoly which in turn led to more money which in turn led to ability to buy power and people,

And how many people here would take the high ground and pass up those opportunities.

And how many would get away with it?

Anyway, 'Rising Baht could trigger crisis'. Rumour has it the high Baht is even effecting the height of the Thai Rice Mountain, but the organisation behind the "Guinness Book of Records" has been contacted.

[scorecard]

The man is a crook and bad for Thailand. Why is he given a platform ?

Good point, and not many would listen if he didn't run the 'Get Rich Quick Club'.

[MaxYakov]

It seems to be on a slight upward ramp. A few more beers and I should be able to confirm that!

http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/THB/USD/T

[khunken]

It seems to be on a slight upward ramp. A few more beers and I should be able to confirm that!

THB_USD_Prev_2_Weeks_051713.jpeg

http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/THB/USD/T

I'd have thought that was a slight downward trend (more Baht to buy 1US$). Have another beer & correct me if I'm wrong.

[ratcatcher]

It seems to be on a slight upward ramp. A few more beers and I should be able to confirm that!

THB_USD_Prev_2_Weeks_051713.jpeg

http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/THB/USD/T

I'd have thought that was a slight downward trend (more Baht to buy 1US$). Have another beer & correct me if I'm wrong.

And from the other side of the beer bottle, one dollar buys more baht.

[drdoom6996]

Worried about the exchange rate is he????????????????????????????????????????

[Thongkorn]

I have been saying the Thai baht is to strong for the past two years, Its OK saying the problems in Europe not in South East Asia, but if people don't have money you cannot sell anything. that's why Thailand cannot sell there rice, that's why Thai factory's are closing because of no orders, why give the public a cost of living rise than put all Food and commutatives prices up. Its about the exchange rate, its cheaper to go to India, Burma, Vietnam, Philippians, you can but the same products from them.

[Thai at Heart]

I have been saying the Thai baht is to strong for the past two years, Its OK saying the problems in Europe not in South East Asia, but if people don't have money you cannot sell anything. that's why Thailand cannot sell there rice, that's why Thai factory's are closing because of no orders, why give the public a cost of living rise than put all Food and commodatative prices up.

So how low does it need to go? 35,40,45?