Set Index And Thai Mutual Funds

[ThaiSETtrader]

If we define bargains as stocks that have strong EPS growth forecasts and that now have an attractive looking price after the recent retraction, DEMCO, STEC, CITY, ERW and perhaps MALEE would likely be in that category.

[BlackJack]

If we define bargains as stocks that have strong EPS growth forecasts and that now have an attractive looking price after the recent retraction, DEMCO, STEC, CITY, ERW and perhaps MALEE would likely be in that category.

I see everyone and their dog with an ipad, iphone, smart thing etc

and theyre all connected to something

internet or some call package

all are increasing along with internet usage

so this is a given really

[humbug]

from late march onwards you have had plenty of false rumours being spread by the royalist filled stock exchange and bank of thailand, today was no different another bout of false rumours trying to trip up this elected government

this over hang will always be around for another 6 months and will make days like today 3% loss instead of 1%

today i traded slc-w1 from 0.32 then sold .33

then went back in at .30 and sold again at .32

i then went back in at the close to buy again at .30 its quite a volatile stock i will look to sell very quickly if there is any rebound

i was looking at vte, inet , brook, svoa, color-w1, ple,tcj,tfd-w2

but with todays sell off compounded by false rumours i will see if its worth waiting to trade in the morning or wait for monday, heres hoping it was overdun today and theres a rebound

[humbug]

just to follow my last post i mean the sell off is in line with other south east asia bourses but the losses are more exagerated when rumours are spread especially with thai retail investors feeling uneasy with the recent sell off and these rumours from late march

[NeverSure]

We all have our own ideas about what to watch for "signs." Mine is completely crazy, but it's worked for me for more that 20 years.

I watch the profits, sales, and stock of Harley Davidson (HOG). It is a relatively expensive luxury item which no one needs. In down times such as the dot com bust of about 13 years ago it tanked and even the price of used Harleys dropped.

Today it is up 5% and it's up 27% year over year. Profits are up 10% and demand is higher than expected. This is mirroring a weak but (for now) real housing recovery.

This is causing me not to sell my quality US stocks. I'm not a buyer at today's prices, but I was ready to dump all of my stocks at today's high prices. Let's see how it goes for the next quarter.

LINK

[topt]

 

We all have our own ideas about what to watch for "signs." Mine is completely crazy, but it's worked for me for more that 20 years.

I watch the profits, sales, and stock of Harley Davidson (HOG). It is a relatively expensive luxury item which no one needs. In down times such as the dot com bust of about 13 years ago it tanked and even the price of used Harleys dropped.

Today it is up 5% and it's up 27% year over year. Profits are up 10% and demand is higher than expected. This is mirroring a weak but (for now) real housing recovery.

This is causing me not to sell my quality US stocks. I'm not a buyer at today's prices, but I was ready to dump all of my stocks at today's high prices. Let's see how it goes for the next quarter.

LINK

 

How does this "sign" relate to the SET or Thai funds?

[BlackJack]

 

We all have our own ideas about what to watch for "signs." Mine is completely crazy, but it's worked for me for more that 20 years.

I watch the profits, sales, and stock of Harley Davidson (HOG). It is a relatively expensive luxury item which no one needs. In down times such as the dot com bust of about 13 years ago it tanked and even the price of used Harleys dropped.

Today it is up 5% and it's up 27% year over year. Profits are up 10% and demand is higher than expected. This is mirroring a weak but (for now) real housing recovery.

This is causing me not to sell my quality US stocks. I'm not a buyer at today's prices, but I was ready to dump all of my stocks at today's high prices. Let's see how it goes for the next quarter.

LINK

 

How does this "sign" relate to the SET or Thai funds?

it is possible to get exposure to the US market via the funds - so in a way the OP may be suggesting buying US stocks -

[Chensm]

AseanTradingLink.blogspot : Thai Beverage and F&N Myanmar exposure for Jim Roger

[up-country_sinclair]

The SET has been getting knocked around the last few sessions. We're getting close the lows we hit a few months back, and I'm wondering if the floor will hold.

[sas_cars]

The SET has been getting knocked around the last few sessions. We're getting close the lows we hit a few months back, and I'm wondering if the floor will hold.

Yeah, I guess DCA is the answer at this moment. Nobody knows whether the floor will hold

[siam2007]

For those interested in the SET, KGI's recent strategy note may be of interest. They've revised their year end target to 1,800, which is around 10% up on today's close. Some of the justifications are earnings beating expectations - something I raised as an issue if expectations aren't met, and here they're saying exceeded so good news. They're also basing it on a forward P/E of 14 to 15. That's sort of my historic benchmark, so above in today's terms, but may be in line by y/e.

http://research.kgieworld.co.th/recom.nsf/0/8203045BB6F1A6CB47257B72000435A3/$file/Daily+Story_Strategy_2013_05_21_e_th.pdf

I mentioned mining and energy being beat up. I've been adding a little to these via KTAM's funds for the kids future, so 10 years+ down the line, I think people will look back and see it as cheap. Below is another view on this sector. Also says they beat up, some maybe time to consider, but they give a couple of words of caution why being contrarian may not be a good idea:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/miners-are-detested-by-investors-is-it-time-to-buy-64000

Cheers

Fletch

A long way to go to 1.800 from the 1.370 it is now {~_~}

[up-country_sinclair]

No, 25 points per week doesn't seem likely.

[BlackJack]

seems when the FED was on its massive QE spree that a lot of money found its way into emerging markets

now the FED is going to start its tapering the money is now heading out of emerging markets

we can see that happening now

I expect after the Ben Bernanke speaks in Sept 2013 we shall see more money heading back to the USA and the baht falling

[fletchsmile]

Well my situation has changed a little. I've taken a Thailand job, so I'll be a taxpayer again, with extra cash looking for a home:.

From an investment perspective this will be useful as:

1) I'll now be able to buy Thai equity LTFs again so will be maxing those out each month on a cost averaging basis, with the nice Thai government chipping in with the tax relief, which in itself significantly adds to the return

2). Thai market has pulled back a little, with a reasonable correction. absent major shocks. The P/Es now look much less demanding. So looks a good long term buying opportunity for the excess cash coming in. The market is slightly down on the year: the Thai funds I hold already are flat (some up, some down) for this year in THB terms (up in GBP terms), and good time to add to, rather than when P/Es were pushing 20 and looking a bit overvalued at the start of the thread

Still overweight THB equities. If the SET50 holds above 875 I'll also have done nicely writing options for some extra income too.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited August 22, 2013 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

Edited August 22, 2013 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

Just a couple of thought's that came up in a PM conversation, and my own views on LTFS, might add a little to the thread for others too:

1) Is it better to buy direct or thru a bank, and does it affect fees?

Generally there's no difference on fees if you go direct to the fund management house or do through your bank. When I first started in Thailand, I went direct to Aberdeen. Over the years though, I've brought the funds under the umbrella of my bank, as they offer one of the widest range of funds with other managers in addition Aberdeen. Also with the amounts it means I qualify for Priority Banking, which is better service than normal banking and a dedicated relationship manager (RM). So if I want to buy funds in Aberdeen, ING, MFC, TMB all on the same day, they just send a messenger to our home with the forms to sign - still lot of paperwork but all filled in by them and delivered to the door - to make life easy . Particularly as I often buy in mine/my wife and 2 kids names at the same time - quadrupling paperwork.

2) Favourite LTFs? and Aberdeen v ING?

Both ING and Aberdeen are quality fund management houses. ING got bought out by UOB, so I was wary to see if this would affect things. This year so far if anything it seems to have improved at ING.

This year ING LTFs I hold have done better than Aberdeen. Aberdeen have been consistently good over the years though, and are a bit more conservative/ lower volatility.

I hold Aberdeen LTF, ING Corp Good Governance and ING Big Cap Div. I'm happy with all 3. I wouldn't add to the div fund at the moment because of paying tax on the divs. Either of the other 2 are fine.

I'll be investing again soon and will either go with these 2, or have a look at Bangkok Bank for a bit of variety.

You can always split your money over 2 or more funds in 2 or more diff management houses. If you go direct that's twice the work, if thru you bank, not much extra work.

3) A couple of other tips on LTFs:

- I usually max out as much as I can each year, because of 1) the tax benefit, 2) belief in the long term Thai equity story, plus 3) THB assets for protecting against currency risk living in Thailand and having THB expenses

- I usually split the money into equal amounts each month for baht cost averaging. If a full year I do 10 amounts Jan - Oct. This takes away the timing issues, and just do it consistently and be disciplined. The Thai market is extremely difficult to time

- In Oct as soon as I get the 10th/ last tax receipt, I speak to HR and ask them to adjust my salary in the next 2 months, to avoid having to claim back after year end. This means I get more net pay in Nov and Dec. Nice just in time for Xmas! This 10 months investment and 2 months claiming back will work for most people. Just divide the max amount you can pay in a year by 10, and do monthly.

- The reason it works for most people is the max you can invest is 15% of salary or 500k (whichever lower). 2 months out of 12 = 1/6th or 16.66%, so most people pay 16.66% of their year's tax in the last 2 months if deducted from salary each month, which is enough to absorb the 15% allowance. 1 month isn't enough for most people (only 8.33% of year's tax), so a lump sum in December will often mean having to claim back after year end.

-(BTW if starting in Sep/now I'd look at the tax and work out how much tax I'll be paying Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec and split it into monthly installments or a lump as appropriate to get back in my monthly salary if possible). It may be too late though. More important is to get the tax relief each year, than how you get it (in salary or after year end) so investing now may require a lump sum to get full 2013 allowance, and then claim back after year end. Don't start spreading over 10 months from now - start that in Jan 2014, and get as much as you can in soon.

- The Thai market statistically often rallies round year end, so getting money in before then (Jan-Oct) helps a little too. In contrast those investing at the last minute have missed a whole year's growth, and possibly a year end rally/ investing at statistically higher times

Cheers

Fletch:)

Edited August 23, 2013 by fletchsmile

[BlackJack]

Dont shoot the messenger nahm

http://mobile.dudamobile.com/site/nationmultimedia_1/national-high-prices-and-flood-worries-puts-b?url=http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/NESDB-adds-voice-to-chorus-of-gloom-30213012.html#2756

Edited August 23, 2013 by BlackJack

[fletchsmile]

For those interested in the SET, KGI's recent strategy note may be of interest. They've revised their year end target to 1,800, which is around 10% up on today's close. Some of the justifications are earnings beating expectations - something I raised as an issue if expectations aren't met, and here they're saying exceeded so good news. They're also basing it on a forward P/E of 14 to 15. That's sort of my historic benchmark, so above in today's terms, but may be in line by y/e.

http://research.kgieworld.co.th/recom.nsf/0/8203045BB6F1A6CB47257B72000435A3/$file/Daily+Story_Strategy_2013_05_21_e_th.pdf

I mentioned mining and energy being beat up. I've been adding a little to these via KTAM's funds for the kids future, so 10 years+ down the line, I think people will look back and see it as cheap. Below is another view on this sector. Also says they beat up, some maybe time to consider, but they give a couple of words of caution why being contrarian may not be a good idea:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/miners-are-detested-by-investors-is-it-time-to-buy-64000

Cheers

Fletch

A long way to go to 1.800 from the 1.370 it is now {~_~}

Yes KGI have since revised down their y/e target to 1547 and 2014 to 1609. Always to be taken with a pinch of salt.

As mentioned earlier at that stage markets looked fully valued. Now I'd say current market valuations look more reasonable.

If we end up at 1547, that will have been a nice 11% for the year (excluding divs), and I'd be happy with that. Given we're more or less flat on the year as at today, 1547 looks a reasonable target. Basically though, timing and targets are always going to be difficult to call and usually over/undershoot quite significantly - particularly in Thailand. Just be prepared for it, and prepared to ride out the volatility. Main thing for me is the longer term horizon, which looks good.

On an EPS basis KGI, estimate the following growth:

2011-12 +15.9%

2012-13 +12.2%

2013F-14F +12.3%

So we're in the realms of reality - for now at least

Cheers

Fletch

Edited August 23, 2013 by fletchsmile

[up-country_sinclair]

SET opened lower this morning and is still dropping. Down 2.50 % @ 1261

Yikes.

[BlackJack]

SET opened lower this morning and is still dropping. Down 2.50 % @ 1261

Yikes.

more to come if USA cruises into Syria

unfortunately

natural gas and some oil plays should do well

and then you have the September sell off

oh dear

not looking good at all

[JSixpack]

SET opened lower this morning and is still dropping. Down 2.50 % @ 1261

Yikes.

more to come if USA cruises into Syria

unfortunately

natural gas and some oil plays should do well

and then you have the September sell off

oh dear

not looking good at all

Looking better and better. "“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.“ --Baron Rothschild

[Naam]

Looking better and better. "“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.“ --Baron Rothschild

unfortunately that doesn't apply if there's much more blood in the streets tomorrow, next week or next month.

[sas_cars]

Looking better and better. "“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.“ --Baron Rothschild

unfortunately that doesn't apply if there's much more blood in the streets tomorrow, next week or next month.

Yes. Nobody can predict it how much more blood will be on street tomorrow, next week or next month. Guess DCA is the answer. Don't time the market.

[jji23]

Now in the red with BKK bank LTF (B-500!)

Trying to not let short term volatility effect my view as in it for the long term.

OR

The sky is falling get out now buy gold, tinned food and shotguns.

[jji23]

Perhaps now time to increase monthly purchases as ltf units at discount?

[NeverSure]

Now in the red with BKK bank LTF (B-500!)

Trying to not let short term volatility effect my view as in it for the long term.

OR

The sky is falling get out now buy gold, tinned food and shotguns.

Panic. The best thing about panicking is that you are too busy panicking to do anything else.

[Naam]

Looking better and better. "“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.“ --Baron Rothschild

unfortunately that doesn't apply if there's much more blood in the streets tomorrow, next week or next month.

Yes. Nobody can predict it how much more blood will be on street tomorrow, next week or next month. Guess DCA is the answer. Don't time the market.

don't buy stocks, buy bonds!

[BlackJack]

Which ones

Sent from my GT-N7100 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[fletchsmile]

Now in the red with BKK bank LTF (B-500!)

Trying to not let short term volatility effect my view as in it for the long term.

OR

The sky is falling get out now buy gold, tinned food and shotguns. alt=w00t.gif width=18 height=20>

Perhaps now time to increase monthly purchases as ltf units at discount?

One of those periods where you examine your long term aims, see if they still hold, and if so ride thru the short/mid term uncertainties. The worst thing many people do is panic and sell near the bottom, and become too scared to get in again so miss the rise. I rarely see people who time both the top and the bottom correctly, which is why I always focus on long term.

It's sometimes hard to not pay attention to short term moves, but it's good to have times where you lose money as well as make money to develop your experience, attitude, comfort levels, risk and reward. Short/mid term you should expect that sometimes you will be down and sometimes up. Bear in mind markets always overreact too up and down, and the media loves drama. When everyone is worried and the press is all over it being negative is often not far off where things pick up. It's when everyone is happy, everyone is making money, and the press looking for stories I worry more.

Hopefully the tax cushion on the LTFs softens the slight loss.

Whereas at the start of the thread I might have reduced a little monthly investments, now feels about right for normal monthly investment levels, and may go further down before I'd consider cheap and invest a bit more. Or you could just always invest the same each month regardless, ignoring the short term. Factors like Syria are impacting the market now from a trading perspective - that really has little to do with where the Thai market will be 10 years from now, so no point adjusting too much for it in investment (trading of course different)

As for me, I'll be putting the most I can in LTFs to use this year's allowance early October - October being the cut-off to easily get the tax back in Nov and Dec salaries, and as soon as poss after starting earning income and paying tax here again. Next year I'll be back to monthly averaging starting 1Jan... 10 monthly installments regardless of what is happening short term...

[sas_cars]

Now in the red with BKK bank LTF (B-500!)

Trying to not let short term volatility effect my view as in it for the long term.

OR

The sky is falling get out now buy gold, tinned food and shotguns. alt=w00t.gif width=18 height=20>

Perhaps now time to increase monthly purchases as ltf units at discount?

One of those periods where you examine your long term aims, see if they still hold, and if so ride thru the short/mid term uncertainties. The worst thing many people do is panic and sell near the bottom, and become too scared to get in again so miss the rise. I rarely see people who time both the top and the bottom correctly, which is why I always focus on long term.

It's sometimes hard to not pay attention to short term moves, but it's good to have times where you lose money as well as make money to develop your experience, attitude, comfort levels, risk and reward. Short/mid term you should expect that sometimes you will be down and sometimes up. Bear in mind markets always overreact too up and down, and the media loves drama. When everyone is worried and the press is all over it being negative is often not far off where things pick up. It's when everyone is happy, everyone is making money, and the press looking for stories I worry more.

Hopefully the tax cushion on the LTFs softens the slight loss.

Whereas at the start of the thread I might have reduced a little monthly investments, now feels about right for normal monthly investment levels, and may go further down before I'd consider cheap and invest a bit more. Or you could just always invest the same each month regardless, ignoring the short term. Factors like Syria are impacting the market now from a trading perspective - that really has little to do with where the Thai market will be 10 years from now, so no point adjusting too much for it in investment (trading of course different)

As for me, I'll be putting the most I can in LTFs to use this year's allowance early October - October being the cut-off to easily get the tax back in Nov and Dec salaries, and as soon as poss after starting earning income and paying tax here again. Next year I'll be back to monthly averaging starting 1Jan... 10 monthly installments regardless of what is happening short term...

Thanks Fletch. Always learnt something from your comprehensive posts about thai investments. At the moment, I am around 75 % invested, what's your advice at the moment, is the market down enough to fire the remaining 25 % in one go, or should I keep doing Baht cost averaging?