Thoughts On Investing In Myanmar Or Vietnam

[ray23]

Big money appears to be leaving Thailand to some extent, so where will the next boom be?

Vietnam at least it has a market already, anyone know of a vehicle to invest in Vietnam?

Mynamar, from everything I can see a lot of money flowing there. I don't believe it has a market yet. But, does have a MOU with Thailand. Anyone know of a vehicle to invest in Country there?

Pitfalls thoughts?

[farang000999]

There is a Vietnam ETF VNM

[BlackJack]

PYN Elite, Finland's best-performing investment fund, is helping
to drive a stock rally in Vietnam as it abandons Thailand, where its
portfolio achieved annual returns of almost 25% for the past 14 years.

[ray23]

Would be nice it know where they are putting their money, Thailand had a nice run that is for a sure. But, it always breaks down where your get the best bang for your buck,

Anyone having links to investing in Vietnam?

[AyG]

There are four Vietnam investment trusts listed on the London Stock Exchange. Vinacapital and Vinaland are the largest best known. There are also Vietnam Holding and Vietnam Infrastructure.

Performance has been pretty poor over the last few years. In fact, all of them have lost money over the last 5 years. And the costs can be eye-watering; Vinaland has a TER of 5.4%.

[ray23]

I found four yesterday, that you mention, two are in Malayasia. I only worked with brokers here in Thailand. I found the costs on trusts like Aberdeen to high.

One of the things I noticed yesterday, was very little English Available to research companies. Pk it;s early in the morning I am old git. But Bloomberg is predicting a 7% increase in Vietnam this year.

Unlike Thailand it is inexpensive to get in now. That may be why the fund is moving there?

[yoshiwara]

The pifall with both is volatility.

[ray23]

The pifall with both is volatility.

I think your right. with things going as they are SET may come back to earth again. A good example ITD with a P/E of 57, a company that ha never issued a dividend.

I will keep looking. But, I have been in the SET before and understand how it works. Gold is another option to hold money. But, that seems a bit shaky at the moment depending on who you listen to.. You've got the dooms dayers on one side, no fiat money to be left in the world. From what I have seen Gold is leveraged 33X's b now. That is paper investing not the real commodity. But, you can buy real Gold here only questions is when.

Maybe enough will move out of the SET to make it more attractive again.

You can always stick in the bank till things are going more to your liking. Not going to make any money and with inflation you may just loose money at current interest rates.

So the search is on.

[el jefe]

Farang09999 already gave you the best answer - VNM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VNM

It doesn't matter what various VN funds have done over the last 5 years nor that VNM was up over the last year. Your concern should be the next year or 5 years. Right?

"Bloomberg is predicting a 7% increase in Vietnam this year."

A 7% increase in what? Share vale? GNP? Growth is already factored into the price. I would not be investing in VN if my expected return was 7%.

I don't know about the other funds but VNM's annual expense ratio is 0.74.

[ray23]

Farang09999 already gave you the best answer - VNM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VNM

It doesn't matter what various VN funds have done over the last 5 years nor that VNM was up over the last year. Your concern should be the next year or 5 years. Right?

"Bloomberg is predicting a 7% increase in Vietnam this year."

A 7% increase in what? Share vale? GNP? Growth is already factored into the price. I would not be investing in VN if my expected return was 7%.

I don't know about the other funds but VNM's annual expense ratio is 0.74.

I believe so as well. So I will more then likely stick to what I know, if the prices comes in line

[fletchsmile]

The SET has a market cap of THB 13,240 bio. YTD net foreign sales for 5months+ are about THB 27bio. I hope that puts the "big money" into perspective.

I still see Thailand as an attractive market longer term, though am not expecting the stellar returns from 1998-2012 to continue, where I've been averaging over 20% pa. Demographically it will also be about 2020, before population issues start to have a negative effect.

Vietnam has a lot of potential longer term. For the next couple of years though it will be struggling economically with non-performing loans in the banking sector. So the growth story for the next couple of years looks weaker than Thailand to me.

That said though stock markets are usually ahead of the economy, so maybe now is a reasonable time for VN. Worth also noting that over the last 5 years 5 months SET is up 82% compared to Vietnam down 44% and having been beaten up and coming from a low base. SET also looks quite fully valued to me on 17 x P/E. So on say a 10 year horizon, VN could well outperform TH longer term.

VN mutual funds are less common, with higher average charges, and a less liquid market on shares. From a currency perspective VND is more volatile than THB, so that needs to be taken in to account too when adjusting returns. There are also restrictions on converting currency from VND back to USD, although if you have a VND bank account it's easy to do the other way just via online banking. I hold one VN mutual fund: Lion Global Vietnam Fund SGD Class - not a great fund, but OK. Total annual fees of about 1.8 total, including a 1.5% management fee. The initial charge of 5% is steep if you can't get it discounted.

Living in Thailand and wanting more THB exposure than VND, I still prefer Thailand at the moment all things considered. The really big gains look a couple of years off though for VN, but worth dipping toes in now for a small part of a larger portfolio, and perhaps drip feeding any fund you take a liking to.

Cheers

Fletch

[ray23]

Excellent Post