Foreign Capital Starts To Flow Back To U S

[Lite Beer]

VOLATILITY
Foreign capital starts to flow back to US
The Nation

BOT Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul

BANGKOK: -- Foreign capital starts flowing back to the United States, said Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul, following the improvement in the US economy.

He said on Tuesday that Thailand has witnessed some outflows as well. He urged all businesses dealing with foreign income to stay fully alert for volatility.

Thanks to the outflows, US dollar has gained against major currencies. The Thai baht has fallen to a new 1-year low, near 31 per dollar. At 8am today, the baht was at 30.78 per dollar, against the end-2012 closing at 30.60.

More foreign capital is expected to return to the US, if the US Federal Reserve Board decides to end the quantitative easing before 2014.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services yesterday also revised the ratings outlook of the US from "negative" to "stable" on receding fiscal risks. The US’s ratings "’AA+/A-1+" were affirmed.

In a statement, S&P said that the credit strengths of the US include its resilient economy, its monetary credibility, and the US dollar’s status as the world’s key reserve currency.

"Similarly, in our view, the US’s credit weaknesses, compared with higher rated sovereigns, include its fiscal performance, its debt burden, and the effectiveness of its fiscal policymaking."

The rating outlook is revised to indicate its current view that the likelihood of a near-term downgrade of the rating is less than one in three.

-- The Nation 2013-06-11

[harryfrompattaya]

Well America is back in business I am proud to be a American who is Black

[kblaze]

Well America is back in business I am proud to be a American who is Black

always can count on "interesting" posts from you harry

[bakerychef]

im happy for that, my salary here in Thailand is in us $

[darrendsd]

Well America is back in business I am proud to be a American who is Black

What's the colour of a person got to do with the American economy?

[Markaew]

The US economy improvement is an illusion. The Fed has pumped enormous amounts into the banking system at 0% and the banks are investing in the stock market which pushes stock prices up, thus the "improved" economy. When the Fed draws that money out then everybody needs to run for their lives! The Fed chairman will retired before he has to do that. The next guy will truly suffer. So when the Fed chairman announces his retirement, you know it's coming.

[Gerald14]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

[kblaze]

The US economy improvement is an illusion. The Fed has pumped enormous amounts into the banking system at 0% and the banks are investing in the stock market which pushes stock prices up, thus the "improved" economy. When the Fed draws that money out then everybody needs to run for their lives! The Fed chairman will retired before he has to do that. The next guy will truly suffer. So when the Fed chairman announces his retirement, you know it's coming.

Well at the moment, consensus is expecting QE-tapering to begin in the last quarter of this year (could begin earlier if things get really rosy in the states).

Bernankes term at the helm ends in January 2014, but he will still be a board member until 2020

Edited June 11, 2013 by kblaze

[moe666]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

Here we go again, how much of the debt is owned by Chinese, not much actually. The majority of US debt is owned by US citizens.

[Pib]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

Here we go again, how much of the debt is owned by Chinese, not much actually. The majority of US debt is owned by US citizens.

Yeap, about 9% owned by the Chinese, another 25% by other countries such as 7% owned by the Japanese, and the remaining 66% owned by U.S. individuals/institutions/govt agencies/govt retirement funds. But hey, if and when we do go broke we'll be sure the Chinese take the biggest haircut.

Edited June 11, 2013 by Pib

[glegolo]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

I wonder how much of that money you americans have put into warfare, My guess is like 75% .... Because there is surely not too much of it put into social care for the american citizens..

Glegolo

[fire and ice]

The US economy improvement is an illusion. The Fed has pumped enormous amounts into the banking system at 0% and the banks are investing in the stock market which pushes stock prices up, thus the "improved" economy. When the Fed draws that money out then everybody needs to run for their lives! The Fed chairman will retired before he has to do that. The next guy will truly suffer. So when the Fed chairman announces his retirement, you know it's coming.

No to mention extreme infaltion on the horizon as a result of a LOT of "money printing" (aka quantitative easing)

[55Jay]

The "You Americans" line from glegolo always makes me chuckle.

[slipperx]

You ain't seen nothing yet! A fiscal tsunami approaches I predict

[Thereisnoif]

With the Federal reserve injecting 4 billion US$ in the financial system every day , the very sluggish recovery of the US economy is the proof that this money doesn't go into productive investments , but very predominantly into speculation .

[dave111223]

You know that something is fundamental wrong with the system when good economic news brings the markets down, and bad economic news brings the markets up.

[Pib]

We are all doomed...pending financial collapse world wide...sky is falling. By the way, how many end of the world prophecies are suppose to come true each year....I've lost count.

[manarak]

With the Federal reserve injecting 4 billion US$ in the financial system every day , the very sluggish recovery of the US economy is the proof that this money doesn't go into productive investments , but very predominantly into speculation .

arf, what nonsense!

[Markaew]

The US economy improvement is an illusion. The Fed has pumped enormous amounts into the banking system at 0% and the banks are investing in the stock market which pushes stock prices up, thus the "improved" economy. When the Fed draws that money out then everybody needs to run for their lives! The Fed chairman will retired before he has to do that. The next guy will truly suffer. So when the Fed chairman announces his retirement, you know it's coming.

Well at the moment, consensus is expecting QE-tapering to begin in the last quarter of this year (could begin earlier if things get really rosy in the states).

Bernankes term at the helm ends in January 2014, but he will still be a board member until 2020

I doubt he will hang around for the crash. I believe his retirement or "stepping down" will come first.

[lahgon29]

Well America is back in business I am proud to be a American who is Black

What's the colour of a person got to do with the American economy?

What the heck does being a particular colour have to do with currency exchange rates?

[IBoldnewguy]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

Here we go again, how much of the debt is owned by Chinese, not much actually. The majority of US debt is owned by US citizens.

Same was said of Japanese years ago and look at the situation now - brain studies have shown that the human brain is not wired for long term predictive accuracy - so if one manages to not fall off the edge of todays disaster then one has done a good job - tomorrow's challenges and the circumstances determining how one will react won't be known until tomorrow - so have a nice day! Need more

Edited June 11, 2013 by IBoldnewguy

[Naam]

Thanks to the outflows, US dollar has gained against major currencies.

against which "major" currencies Khun Prasarn? Cowrie shells? Angolan Kwanza?

[kblaze]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

I wonder how much of that money you americans have put into warfare, My guess is like 75% .... Because there is surely not too much of it put into social care for the american citizens..

Glegolo

yeah we aint big into that euroey "social" stuff. we stay in our houses in the mountains and shoot stuff that moves

[stoli]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

Here we go again, how much of the debt is owned by Chinese, not much actually. The majority of US debt is owned by US citizens.

Thank you. How right you are. Had a discussion with some Canadians that thought they could teach me that we owed it all to China. I couldn't stop laughing. At the time we owed China $1.6 trillion, and Japan $1.3 trillion. I understand that today that Japan is now our lead credit source. People must remember that the U.S. citizen owns the majority of the debt. Heck, I wish China owned it all. Then we could do a BK and start over. Right now it is easier for the American citizen to do a BK, and let the government borrow more. This is just plain wrong to treat your own people this way. Edited June 12, 2013 by stoli

[kblaze]

on a more serious note; I saw some interesting analysis this morning..

The SET is at a 12.1X PE, which is still 1 stand dev above the 5 year average, so some say there is still room for more downside until we get to the 1300s which would translate to the market actually starting to look cheap, rather than just fairly valued. Reaching a 10x PE would mean 20% upside...thats real cheap.

The other camp says look at US 10 years. When 10 year yields rise it means people are dumping in anticipation of the Fed pulling out, and hence liquidity gets sucked out of emerging markets, like the SET. 10 year yields have risen 56bps since the May 1 low (1.66% to now 2.22%). Meanwhile, the market (SET) implied discount rate that houses use in their valuations has risen 96bps. So that means that we have more than priced-in the 10 year yield rise (56bps). Now, if you think Bernanke is going to keep letting the 10 years rise...then watch out. But if you think he will keep it in the 2-3% range, then that implies there isn't "lots" more downside for the SET..

Edited June 12, 2013 by kblaze

[Naam]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

Here we go again, how much of the debt is owned by Chinese, not much actually. The majority of US debt is owned by US citizens.

Thank you. How right you are. Had a discussion with some Canadians that thought they could teach me that we owed it all to China. I couldn't stop laughing. At the time we owed China $1.6 trillion, and Japan $1.3 trillion. I understand that today that Japan is now our lead credit source. People must remember that the U.S. citizen owns the majority of the debt. Heck, I wish China owned it all. Then we could do a BK and start over. Right now it is easier for the American citizen to do a BK, and let the government borrow more. This is just plain wrong to treat your own people this way.

yeah right! protect your own people, defraud or steal from others.

[Naam]

Anyone who thinks the American economy is improving should consider the national debt as of today. This is why America will be owned by the Chinese, invest some money in a Chinese language course it will pay off

Here we go again, how much of the debt is owned by Chinese, not much actually. The majority of US debt is owned by US citizens.

that's good to know. now i can have a good sleep at night again

[harryfrompattaya]

on a more serious note; I saw some interesting analysis this morning..

The SET is at a 12.1X PE, which is still 1 stand dev above the 5 year average, so some say there is still room for more downside until we get to the 1300s which would translate to the market actually starting to look cheap, rather than just fairly valued. Reaching a 10x PE would mean 20% upside...thats real cheap.

The other camp says look at US 10 years. When 10 year yields rise it means people are dumping in anticipation of the Fed pulling out, and hence liquidity gets sucked out of emerging markets, like the SET. 10 year yields have risen 56bps since the May 1 low (1.66% to now 2.22%). Meanwhile, the market (SET) implied discount rate that houses use in their valuations has risen 96bps. So that means that we have more than priced-in the 10 year yield rise (56bps). Now, if you think Bernanke is going to keep letting the 10 years rise...then watch out. But if you think he will keep it in the 2-3% range, then that implies there isn't "lots" more downside for the SET..

I was told that one can get sue by saying the SET will decline That makes what we read little pro SET to say the least

[kblaze]

on a more serious note; I saw some interesting analysis this morning..

The SET is at a 12.1X PE, which is still 1 stand dev above the 5 year average, so some say there is still room for more downside until we get to the 1300s which would translate to the market actually starting to look cheap, rather than just fairly valued. Reaching a 10x PE would mean 20% upside...thats real cheap.

The other camp says look at US 10 years. When 10 year yields rise it means people are dumping in anticipation of the Fed pulling out, and hence liquidity gets sucked out of emerging markets, like the SET. 10 year yields have risen 56bps since the May 1 low (1.66% to now 2.22%). Meanwhile, the market (SET) implied discount rate that houses use in their valuations has risen 96bps. So that means that we have more than priced-in the 10 year yield rise (56bps). Now, if you think Bernanke is going to keep letting the 10 years rise...then watch out. But if you think he will keep it in the 2-3% range, then that implies there isn't "lots" more downside for the SET..

I was told that one can get sue by saying the SET will decline That makes what we read little pro SET to say the least

you were lied to

[Naam]

I was told that one can get sue by saying the SET will decline That makes what we read little pro SET to say the least

what does Sue look like? is she attractive?