IMF warns of rising risks to Thai economy

[SICHONSTEVE]

"He said the IMF mission welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal discipline, including their objectives of keeping the public debt ratio under 50 per cent of GDP and balancing the central government budget by 2017."

Fiscal discipline????

Actually, Public Debt at 50% or less of GDP is fiscally very good. Compared to the US at circa 74% and Japan at circa 214%, and NZ at circa 45% (2010 figures). No matter how we may view Thai politics and economics, it is a strong emerging economy with fairly sound fundamental ratios.

.......and this government is trying it's hardest to destroy all of the positivities built up over the decades in a few years!!!

[metisdead]

An off topic baiting post has been remove as well as the replies.

[mommysboy]

I agree with a previous posting, the overall tone of the article is very positive.

Whether I believe it is another matter.

[Thai at Heart]

"He said the IMF mission welcomed the authorities commitment to fiscal discipline, including their objectives of keeping the public debt ratio under 50 per cent of GDP and balancing the central government budget by 2017."

Fiscal discipline????

Actually, Public Debt at 50% or less of GDP is fiscally very good. Compared to the US at circa 74% and Japan at circa 214%, and NZ at circa 45% (2010 figures). No matter how we may view Thai politics and economics, it is a strong emerging economy with fairly sound fundamental ratios.

.......and this government is trying it's hardest to destroy all of the positivities built up over the decades in a few years!!!

Even with the rice mess it is still below 50& of GDP.

[rubl]

No idea how Economics higher than 101 works but:

""After the 1997 financial crisis, the Chuan Leekpai government combined all public debt from various entities to come under the Finance Ministry's management.
The government believed it could service the public debt more effectively with all debt brought under the ministry's Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).
It seems the Pheu Thai government wants to take us back to the situation which existed before 1997, when debt was spread over many entities, and was harder to scrutinise, and manage.""

[Thai at Heart]

No idea how Economics higher than 101 works but:

""After the 1997 financial crisis, the Chuan Leekpai government combined all public debt from various entities to come under the Finance Ministry's management.

The government believed it could service the public debt more effectively with all debt brought under the ministry's Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).

It seems the Pheu Thai government wants to take us back to the situation which existed before 1997, when debt was spread over many entities, and was harder to scrutinise, and manage.""

Well, of you are told to count it up. It's easier if its one place.

Quoting chuan as a label for anything isn't really much better than chalerm.

[hellodolly]

"He said the IMF mission welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal discipline, including their objectives of keeping the public debt ratio under 50 per cent of GDP and balancing the central government budget by 2017."

Fiscal discipline????

Actually, Public Debt at 50% or less of GDP is fiscally very good. Compared to the US at circa 74% and Japan at circa 214%, and NZ at circa 45% (2010 figures). No matter how we may view Thai politics and economics, it is a strong emerging economy with fairly sound fundamental ratios.

If it is so good why do you have to compare it to other countries?

[hellodolly]

I agree with a previous posting, the overall tone of the article is very positive.

Whether I believe it is another matter.

+1

[webfact]

ECONOMY
IMF foresees downside risks for Thai economy
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) should expand by 4.75 per cent in 2013 and 5.25 per cent in 2014, thanks to strong private demand and an acceleration of public spending, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Yet, in the Article IV mission report, the IMF noted that risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, mainly due to external factors. Political stability has strengthened in Thailand, and markedly improved market sentiment, although downside risks remain. The volatility of capital flows has added uncertainty to the outlook.

"Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and the devastating 2011 floods, the expansionary fiscal policy pursued in recent years was justified, aimed at supporting aggregate demand and reconstruction activities. But now, the strength of the ongoing economic recovery provides an opportunity to gradually withdraw the fiscal stimulus, create fiscal space for priority infrastructure spending, and rebuild policy buffers to address future possible shocks.

The IMF’s mission welcomed the authorities' commitment to fiscal discipline, including their objectives of keeping the public debt ratio under 50 percent of GDP and balancing the central government budget by 2017. The authorities are taking actions to improve tax compliance and expand the tax base, reduce tax incentives for consumption, and revamp excises, while confirming their strict control over current spending. The mission discussed additional measures that would support the authorities' goals of increasing public spending on infrastructure, while also preserving fiscal discipline.

"The Bank of Thailand's accommodative monetary stance is appropriately supporting the economy. However, the Bank of Thailand should continue to be vigilant to demand and wage pressures, and stand ready to normalise interest rates if overheating pressures emerge or inflation picks up. In an era of volatile capital flows and rapid shifts in investors risk appetite, the inflation targeting regime and the credibility of the central bank have served Thailand well. The policy response to the recent episode of capital flows was appropriate, including exchange rate flexibility and the preparation of contingency measures.

The mission concluded that the financial sector has benefited from the strong recovery. Nonetheless, vulnerabilities are rising, including from the expansion of specialized financial institutions (SFIs) and rising household debt.

The mission supports the authorities' intention to strengthen the operating environment of SFIs, including their management and mandates. The regulatory and prudential frameworks of SFIs, including disclosure requirements, should also be gradually aligned with those of commercial banks, even as they continue to pursue social mandates under the current scheme of public sector accounts. Increasing household debt-- impacted by reconstruction needs and temporary policies to stimulate consumption--is another source of concern, which the authorities are monitoring closely.

"Building on Thailand's remarkable record of economic development in recent decades, the mission supports the authorities' intention to raise growth and to make growth more inclusive. The implementation of infrastructure projects, in particular in the transportation sector, is expected to raise economy-wide productivity. A medium-term fiscal framework that includes fiscal targets on a broader public sector basis and enhances transparency, including on operations of extra-budgetary funds, state-owned enterprises, and SFIs, could contribute to further strengthening investor confidence. Finally, enhancing social protection mechanisms, such as conditional cash transfer programs, in particular, those linked to access to education and health care, would allow for growth with equity.


-- The Nation 2013-06-19

[EvilDrSomkid]

No idea how Economics higher than 101 works but:

""After the 1997 financial crisis, the Chuan Leekpai government combined all public debt from various entities to come under the Finance Ministry's management.

The government believed it could service the public debt more effectively with all debt brought under the ministry's Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).

It seems the Pheu Thai government wants to take us back to the situation which existed before 1997, when debt was spread over many entities, and was harder to scrutinise, and manage.""

No, they do not. The current economic situation in Thailand is not at all similar to pre-97.

First of all, the THB is NOT pegged to the USD. Big difference. When the THB was floated on 2 July 1997, it tanked hard. This ruined almost all export driven industries.

Second, pre-97 the Thai government had a budget surplus. IMF did not see that. Now, they are spending like mad, but that's OK. They have plenty of revenue coming in.

Third, the massive capital inflows are investments in the Thai market, mostly from Japan. Pre-97 the inflows were loans to Thai institutions/companies.

The Thai have learned from the crisis. The basis is more sound now, the real estate demand is strong.

Most of all, the people in charge now saw what happened and will not allow it to happen again.

Edited June 19, 2013 by EvilDrSomkid

[Longtooth]

I think the header should have been: "Thai economy OK." The article sounds positive, not negative.

[Utley]

"He said the IMF mission welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal discipline, including their objectives of keeping the public debt ratio under 50 per cent of GDP and balancing the central government budget by 2017."

Fiscal discipline????

Actually, Public Debt at 50% or less of GDP is fiscally very good. Compared to the US at circa 74% and Japan at circa 214%, and NZ at circa 45% (2010 figures). No matter how we may view Thai politics and economics, it is a strong emerging economy with fairly sound fundamental ratios.

"Total (U.S) government spending continues to be around 42 percent of GDP." according to the 2013 Index of Economic Freeedom: http://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedstates From where did you get your number of 74%?

[Xonax]

Just look at Greece and see for your self what the IMF is doing,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Greece has no one to blame for its financial condition but itself. If a country wants a bail out because of its own greed, corruption and sloppy fiscal policy then it must accept that the entities providing the bail out will impose some conditions.

I strongly believe, that Thailand will be the "Greece" of The ASEAN Community! Already borrowing astronomous amounts, in the hope that other countries will bail them out. Corruption has never been higher than at this very moment. 90% of all people in Thailand doesn´t pay any tax at all, and therefore have the right, not to care understand, how the country´s taxpayer´s money is being spent wasted.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Xonax

[blazes]

Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) should expand by 4.75 per cent in 2013 and 5.25 per cent in 2014,

How the eff does the IMF (or anybody) know what GDP is going to be next year or even this year???? The IMF is a corrupt body of international bankers who go on fat junkets around the world, listening to each country's mandarins (all a bunch of Sir Humphreys who fob them off with imaginary figures), then they go back to Washington DC, write up their reports and pretend that they have accomplished some pretty intelligent forecasting (Gypsy Lee and her crystal ball can do just as good a job), all of it reported in an English not even a professor of English can underfknstand.

Why is there no revolution to end this global sh*te?

[Baerboxer]

No idea how Economics higher than 101 works but:

""After the 1997 financial crisis, the Chuan Leekpai government combined all public debt from various entities to come under the Finance Ministry's management.

The government believed it could service the public debt more effectively with all debt brought under the ministry's Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).

It seems the Pheu Thai government wants to take us back to the situation which existed before 1997, when debt was spread over many entities, and was harder to scrutinise, and manage.""

No, they do not. The current economic situation in Thailand is not at all similar to pre-97.

First of all, the THB is NOT pegged to the USD. Big difference. When the THB was floated on 2 July 1997, it tanked hard. This ruined almost all export driven industries.

Second, pre-97 the Thai government had a budget surplus. IMF did not see that. Now, they are spending like mad, but that's OK. They have plenty of revenue coming in.

Third, the massive capital inflows are investments in the Thai market, mostly from Japan. Pre-97 the inflows were loans to Thai institutions/companies.

The Thai have learned from the crisis. The basis is more sound now, the real estate demand is strong.

Most of all, the people in charge now saw what happened and will not allow it to happen again.

Please define who you mean by the "people in charge now".

[spermwhale]

The news from Mcot is nothing but propaganda and it will never report ANYTHING negative about Thailand. So if there is criticism it will be either ignored by this state news outlet or massaged to become something else entirely.

I read anything from MCOT with a grain of salt. In other words, the situation is likely worse than reported here.

[Thai at Heart]

No idea how Economics higher than 101 works but:

""After the 1997 financial crisis, the Chuan Leekpai government combined all public debt from various entities to come under the Finance Ministry's management.

The government believed it could service the public debt more effectively with all debt brought under the ministry's Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).

It seems the Pheu Thai government wants to take us back to the situation which existed before 1997, when debt was spread over many entities, and was harder to scrutinise, and manage.""

No, they do not. The current economic situation in Thailand is not at all similar to pre-97.

First of all, the THB is NOT pegged to the USD. Big difference. When the THB was floated on 2 July 1997, it tanked hard. This ruined almost all export driven industries.

Second, pre-97 the Thai government had a budget surplus. IMF did not see that. Now, they are spending like mad, but that's OK. They have plenty of revenue coming in.

Third, the massive capital inflows are investments in the Thai market, mostly from Japan. Pre-97 the inflows were loans to Thai institutions/companies.

The Thai have learned from the crisis. The basis is more sound now, the real estate demand is strong.

Most of all, the people in charge now saw what happened and will not allow it to happen again.

Please define who you mean by the "people in charge now".

Having an independent central bank is a massive difference. Thank God

[Chicken George]

All seems rosy...no hole to dig out of yet.. I do hope in the future high tax demands will not be made on small business. To keep the flow of local cash in local economies is key.

[how241]

Beware of inflation, capital flows, SFIs and rising household debt, but all in all its says noything

Agreed, a lot of complex chat, but nothing of substance. A copy of the executive summary of the report would have been more coherent and of more use.

+1

[technologybytes]

"specialised financial institutions (SFIs)", that will be the loan sharks.

[EvilDrSomkid]

No idea how Economics higher than 101 works but:

""After the 1997 financial crisis, the Chuan Leekpai government combined all public debt from various entities to come under the Finance Ministry's management.

The government believed it could service the public debt more effectively with all debt brought under the ministry's Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).

It seems the Pheu Thai government wants to take us back to the situation which existed before 1997, when debt was spread over many entities, and was harder to scrutinise, and manage.""

No, they do not. The current economic situation in Thailand is not at all similar to pre-97.

First of all, the THB is NOT pegged to the USD. Big difference. When the THB was floated on 2 July 1997, it tanked hard. This ruined almost all export driven industries.

Second, pre-97 the Thai government had a budget surplus. IMF did not see that. Now, they are spending like mad, but that's OK. They have plenty of revenue coming in.

Third, the massive capital inflows are investments in the Thai market, mostly from Japan. Pre-97 the inflows were loans to Thai institutions/companies.

The Thai have learned from the crisis. The basis is more sound now, the real estate demand is strong.

Most of all, the people in charge now saw what happened and will not allow it to happen again.

Please define who you mean by the "people in charge now".

Having an independent central bank is a massive difference.

Exactly.

By "the people in charge" I referred to the current government.

[Sydebolle]

Those around long enough will remember the TV shows with obese dancers on a concrete stage, called "IMF" which referred to "I aM Fat"