Cabinet reshuffle won't resolve PM's first real crisis: Thai talk

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THAI TALK
Cabinet reshuffle won't resolve PM's first real crisis
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation



BANGKOK: -- With the obvious decline in the popularity of the government, spurred by the controversial, populist rice price-pledging scheme, an overall sense of anxiety is hovering over the ruling Pheu Thai Party.

The fact that Pheu Thai leaders have been talking publicly about "attempts to overthrow the government" almost every day over the past few weeks indicates that things are heating up. Anything could happen. A major Cabinet reshuffle is on the drawing board. If that fails to pacify the public, a House dissolution to call new elections - an unlikely possibility only a few weeks ago - can't be ruled out anymore.

Despite talk of imminent moves to push through constitutional amendments and an amnesty bill - two major schemes that would benefit ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawtra directly or otherwise - the ongoing political scenario could put the brakes on these sensitive issues.

The top priority for Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is to stem the tide of protests by farmers who have voiced strong opposition to the reduction of the guaranteed price of paddy from Bt15,000 to Bt12,000 per tonne, to cut down on the huge losses incurred under the project.

The issue threatens to put a serious dent in the premier's so-far high popularity ratings. And she realises the controversy could make or break her premiership.

The premier was quoted as having told her close aides: "I have spent sleepless nights in the recent past. Only me and Boonsong [Taeriyapirom, the commerce minister] have come under such severe pressure."

Obviously, she was referring to the rising tide of opinion against her and the commerce minister for having failed to account for the huge losses from the scheme in the last harvest season and the inability to project future losses.

The premier came under unprecedented pressure for a very simple reason: she had always thought that, by hanging on to this highly costly project, she could at least expect the farmers to stay on her side. She could always claim that the vocal, urban middle class, who have never supported the scheme, could never feel the pain and suffering of farmers - and that only her government could help lift rice farmers from their longstanding poverty.

Now, with farmers marching into Bangkok to express their discontent, the premier has lost her most effective political weapon.

The growing pressure has descended from all directions. Critics, including academics, opposition politicians and the urban middle class, say she has squandered huge sums of tax money without being able to prove that poor farmers have benefited from the massive financial input. She took a step back by reducing the pledge price only to face a huge protest from those who are supposed to benefit from it.

In the wake of this first real crisis of confidence, the premier feels isolated from her Cabinet members and close aides. She has complained that very few of the ministers concerned have stepped up to defend the policy that has been the mainstay of the government's platform - and a major reason why the Pheu Thai Party won the last general election with a landslide.

The obvious option for the premier to cool things down is to reshuffle the Cabinet, kicking out ministers who she feels have failed her in this big battle. But simply reallocating Cabinet portfolios may not put an end to the slide. The rice price-pledging plan can't be saved without major consequences. And if push comes to shove, the next choice will be to dissolve the House and call a new general election, hoping that the voters will offer the ruling party another big mandate.

That scenario - unlike the situation a few months ago - isn't a foregone conclusion anymore.

In this context, it may be worth reminding all political pundits that most Thai governments in the past have fallen because of internal factors. Very few have been toppled by the opposition.


-- The Nation 2013-06-27

[Siripon]

And if they dissolve the House, what populist policies will they champion during the election campaign?

Free rice for every household ( only one or two years old)

[chooka]

Spoken to your good friend Julia lately?

[NongKhaiKid]

Spoken to your good friend Julia lately?

Do you think chubby faced Chalerm looks just a little bit like chubby faced Kevin ?

[NongKhaiKid]

Yingluck's first crisis has been in existence since the moment she took office and that is to keep up the pretence that she's in charge.

From the outset she set herself a very low standard which she has consistently failed to maintain.

[Thait Spot]

Sometimes its hard to be a woman.

Giving all your time to just one man

[Tatsujin]

And if push comes to shove, the next choice will be to dissolve the House and call a new general election, hoping that the voters will offer the ruling party another big mandate.

This I seriously doubt, and the longer things like the rice pledging scheme continue the least likely it is to happen, but I'd love to see them try.

[moe666]

getting rid of flunkies will not bring back the money or sale the rice, I guess the bubble has finally went bust

[smedly]

it wasn't so long ago she claimed the rice scheme was working and healthy, it took Moody's to expose the truth and the depth of lies and deception that come from this crowd of corrupt thieves - I don't believe one word they tell the public - it's all lies and deception on a grand scale

[OzMick]

"I have spent sleepless nights in the recent past. Only me and Boonsong...."

Neither party could lie straight in bed.

[Neilly]

In the wake of this first real crisis of confidence, the premier feels isolated from her Cabinet members and close aides. She has complained that very few of the ministers concerned have stepped up to defend the policy that has been the mainstay of the government's platform

Pretty hard to defend the undefendable

[soi41]

There used to be some posters here on Thaivisa strongly supporting Mr T and his mob. They have been very quite lately! Wonder why??

[bigbamboo]

There used to be some posters here on Thaivisa strongly supporting Mr T and his mob. They have been very quite lately! Wonder why??

Please refer to Neilly's comment above!

[Artisi]

Spoken to your good friend Julia lately?

Why would Julia even consider speaking to miss Y who has virtually nothing between the ears and can only regurgitate second info received from abroad. Guess they could talk shopping and hand-bags - but then I don't really think Julia is into this life style anyway.

[mic6ard]

Have any one even ask the farmers how much of that 15,000 they are actually getting? Do they get all of it?

Has the program actually achieve what it set out to do? Improving the lives of the farmers?

[rubl]

How many more times does Ms. Yingluck have to replace handpicked people selected on 'knowledge', 'capabilities', potential' and 'suitability'?

[Robby nz]

If rumor is correct Thaksin is planning to bring back more of the old TRT gang whose exceptional abilities at cheating and deception earned them a 5 year ban from politics.

They should fit in just fine.

Rumor also has it that in order to take his much deserved place in cabinet Jatuporn was asked to present his resume.

Perhaps he could post it in the jokes section and we could all have a good laugh.

[bigbamboo]

How many more times does Ms. Yingluck have to replace handpicked people selected on 'knowledge', 'capabilities', potential' and 'suitability'?

I didn't know she had?

[whybother]

And if push comes to shove, the next choice will be to dissolve the House and call a new general election, hoping that the voters will offer the ruling party another big mandate.

This I seriously doubt, and the longer things like the rice pledging scheme continue the least likely it is to happen, but I'd love to see them try.

If they had an election today, they would still probably get the most seats, but I doubt there is any way they would get a majority of seats, and they would have a much harder time forming a coalition.

[Rosco911]

She has complained that very few of the ministers concerned have stepped up to defend the policy that has been the mainstay of the government's platform.

This is Thailand mu dear, are you not aware no one steps up and takes responsibility when it all goes wrong.

[Baerboxer]

Spoken to your good friend Julia lately?

Why would Julia even consider speaking to miss Y who has virtually nothing between the ears and can only regurgitate second info received from abroad. Guess they could talk shopping and hand-bags - but then I don't really think Julia is into this life style anyway.

Perhaps because PM Yingluck is still, in name, a PM. What's Julia ever done that's so great? Looks like the Aussie MPs made their mind up about that one.

Edited June 27, 2013 by Baerboxer

[tomross46]

Sometimes its hard to be a woman.

Giving all your time to just one man

Just think the MP from Ching Mai could be a member of the new cabinet.

[hellodolly]

Have any one even ask the farmers how much of that 15,000 they are actually getting? Do they get all of it?

Has the program actually achieve what it set out to do? Improving the lives of the farmers?

Good question. I have asked it several times and there seems to be no knowledge on the subject. I had heard a rumor that the large land owners were the ones getting money from the scam. the little man nothing.

do they pay their field hands 300 baht a day?

[hellodolly]

"In the wake of this first real crisis of confidence, the premier feels isolated from her Cabinet members and close aides. She has complained that very few of the ministers concerned have stepped up to defend the policy that has been the mainstay of the government's platform - and a major reason why the Pheu Thai Party won the last general election with a landslide."

If she had attended more cabinet meetings than countries and shopping malls she would not feel so isolated from her hand picked cabinet. Not sure if it was the Male or the Female clone who picked them.

she must not have seen the results of the last election she said.

"the Pheu Thai Party won the last general election with a landslide"

Did she use a pad to figure out 48% is a landslide.

Bottom like isd they will never have a decent Cabinet until they start looking for the most qualified people to fill the jobs, No matter what party they belong to.

Not continue to pay off favors or buy them.

That goes for what ever Party is in power.

Look at the mess it caused with the Democrats they had a great leader but he had to give so many of the seats away to maintain power that he was just about ineffective.

[winstonc]

it is getting exciting though isnt it,,,,,,,,,,i might have to record wimbledon if this gets really hot,,dont tell me any results people please,,,,

[livinthailandos]

New election promises. ....to stay in power she could

1. appoint the new minimum wage to be 400 baht per day.

2. Subsidize fuel costs

3. Reduce price of bts and mrt

4. Increase VAT tax to 15%

5. Offer first home buyers special tax discount incentive

6. Offer free smartphones by subsidizing prices

Sent from my using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Thai at Heart]

First real crisis?

Any government in Thailand is only one or two steps from catastrophe at any point. They have walked entirely into their own personally created shi*storm.

[smedly]

New election promises. ....to stay in power she could

1. appoint the new minimum wage to be 400 baht per day.

2. Subsidize fuel costs

3. Reduce price of bts and mrt

4. Increase VAT tax to 15%

5. Offer first home buyers special tax discount incentive

6. Offer free smartphones by subsidizing prices

Sent from my using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

she hasn't figured out yet that she is the boss and should be sacking these people who cannot function but of course she can't because she is not the real boss and the real boss in not the real boss so there goes any accountability - how stupid is that

[Thai at Heart]

New election promises. ....to stay in power she could

1. appoint the new minimum wage to be 400 baht per day.

2. Subsidize fuel costs

3. Reduce price of bts and mrt

4. Increase VAT tax to 15%

5. Offer first home buyers special tax discount incentive

6. Offer free smartphones by subsidizing prices

Sent from my using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

she hasn't figured out yet that she is the boss and should be sacking these people who cannot function but of course she can't because she is not the real boss and the real boss in not the real boss so there goes any accountability - how stupid is that

If you are going to start sacking people, it helps if you have a little integrity yourself. If she started sacking people, the whole government would descend into back stabbing chaos.

[smedly]

if only