So, The Elections Came And Went...

[chanchao]

No final results, but if I may summarize the preliminary results:

South - BIG no to Taksin / TRT

Bangkok - BIG no to Taksin / TRT

East - Slight no to Taksin / TRT

Central - Slight yes to Taksin / TRT (Which is surprising as this is Banharn / Chart Thai's playground)

North - BIG yes to Taksin / TRT

North East - BIG yes to Taksin / TRT

As most people live North East, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Taksin managed to get an actual majority (> 50%) of the electorate to actively turn up to vote to support him.

Quote of the day:

" Phibhop Dhongchai, a core leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, said Mr Thaksin had once

again used votes to justify himself. The caretaker prime minister had asked the public what his

problems were. "

Terrible, aint it, to go ask the people.

Cheers,

Chanchao

[skippy]

No final results, but if I may summarize the preliminary results:

South - BIG no to Taksin / TRT

Bangkok - BIG no to Taksin / TRT

East - Slight no to Taksin / TRT

Central - Slight yes to Taksin / TRT (Which is surprising as this is Banharn / Chart Thai's playground)

North - BIG yes to Taksin / TRT

North East - BIG yes to Taksin / TRT

As most people live North East, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Taksin managed to get an actual majority (> 50%) of the electorate to actively turn up to vote to support him.

Quote of the day:

" Phibhop Dhongchai, a core leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, said Mr Thaksin had once

again used votes to justify himself. The caretaker prime minister had asked the public what his

problems were. "

Terrible, aint it, to go ask the people.

Cheers,

Chanchao

Baht 200 per vote for TRT in Buriram provence.

[chanchao]

Seems Taksin is actively trying to reconcile, and hinted at a government of national unity.

Why would that NOT be the way to go if you call yourself democrat, given there's such overwhelming support for Thai Rak Thai?

What could they possibly expect? Cut out the voices of all the people in the North, North East and large parts of Central Thailand?

I think Abhisit (Democrat party) needs to disconnect himself with the whole Sondhi/royalist/nationalist bandwagon, go his own course, negotiate and agree on a few obvious constitutional changes, join a governemnt with (under) TRT and get his act together for the next election.

Cheers,

Chanchao

[sbk]

Suggest you see the results in the South before suggesting that the entire country has spoken.

[chanchao]

----

> Baht 200 per vote for TRT in Buriram provence.

Always been that way, and will be so for the foreseeable future. In the end it's up to the people if they want to actually vote that way after receiving the money.

And besides, the current rules are that people have to return to their home province to vote. As a lot of people are poor, and the bus is not free, getting some money for a trip home is not unreasonable. Middle class people buy a house/condo in Bangkok and officially move there. Poor people do not / can not.

I agree this is not ideal, but it's the way it is and always has been. In any case it's not what Taksin's opponents are agitating against because they do it themselves, too.

Cheers,

Chanchao

[chanchao]

---

> Suggest you see the results in the South before suggesting that

> the entire country has spoken.

I did, and listed it at the top: "Big no to Taksin/TRT". There are however simply not enough people in the South (and Bangkok) to stop a TRT majority nationwide.

[skippy]

It used to be Baht 100.

[sbk]

From The Nation:

At least 38 constituencies in 15 provinces, mostly in the South, will see by-elections after the Thai Rak Thai candidates running unopposed failed to get votes from at least 20 per cent of the eligible voters, Election Commission secretary-general Ekkachai Warunprapha said yesterday.

The provinces are Krabi (three constituencies), Chumphon (2), Trang (3), Nakhon Si Thammarat (5), Narathiwat (3), Prachuap Khiri Khan (1), Pattani (2), Phang Nga (1), Phatthalung (2), Phuket (2), Yala (2), Songkhla (7), Satun (1), Surat Thani (3) and Phetchaburi (1).

One TRT party member got more than 20% of the votes in Phang-nga. Thats it.

Most people down here believe that the PM only helps those from his own area and neglects the South. He has stated publicly that those who vote for him are those that are helped first. He is widely reviled here, and most feel that he has done more than neglect the South but has actively pursued policies to make things even worse.

[otherstuff1957]

The reason the Opposition boycotted the election is that they said it wouldn't solve anything.

It looks like they were right.

[chanchao]

> Most people down here believe that the PM only helps those from his

> own area and neglects the South.

So why is a government of national unity that includes Democrat politicians from the South then a bad idea?

People in the North and North East feel just the same about the Democrats and the way they're a great party if you have money, are educated and/or from the South..

I think the Democrats let down their supporters in the South very badly. They obviously can't hope to dictate a non-TRT government when the majority of Thais thinks Taksin should be in government.

[sbk]

I don't think any "unity government" that includes Thaksin would play well in the South.

Mind this is just my personal opinion based on conversations with locals, all of whom, frankly, hate the man.

[jomama]

Baht 200 per vote for TRT in Buriram provence.

In Lampang province, where my wife is from, no money changed hands. She said in times past it had.

She noted NO (abstained), and tried to get her family to do the same, but they didn't understand the vote. In Thai culture, when in doubt, say yes. Also, by voting NO, they may prolong the conflict, which is not good for people, they think. And they may be right.

To modern Thailand's credit, the situation has not devolved into violence, but it has before. The longer Sondhi and his people keep picking at the wound, the more likley of the Army to get involved; they are genuinely concerned about the mob ruling by chants, threats, and later, stones. Unemployed poor people are not the people they want in the streets. The liberals may be pushing for the correct change, but unless they can deliver jobs on the ground and get folks occupied with some notion other that "Taksin is bad" they might be helping to truly hurt the country.

Who do people want as Prime Minister? Sondhi? Right now I trust him less than Taksin. Taksin may be arrogant and flighty, but at least he tried to take on so many vested interests and he did shake them up. Sondhi strikes me as an old-school player who wants business as usual; he's only piss*d because he's not in power, but he has no "vision" to reform the country and help it progress.

Hard to say, but I'll give Taksin this: he sure piss*d a lot of people off, most of them with vested economic and political power. If I have to pick today between Sondhi and Taksin -- I'll take Taksin.

[Tolley]

Is it correct to say that many people will have to vote again in a few weeks time?

Some of the girls i know from Chiang Rai said they had to go back and vote in a few weeks time?

[Doza]

Seems Taksin is actively trying to reconcile, and hinted at a government of national unity.

Why would that NOT be the way to go if you call yourself democrat, given there's such overwhelming support for Thai Rak Thai?

Reconcile what? He still won't answer questions about his dodgy Themasak deal. People don't want him out simply because they don't like him, he is dishonest and shady and continues to be so. They don't want reconciliation or a place in his government - they want answers. Answers, it seems, he doesn't have or is unwilling to give. That's clearly not acceptable to people who understand what's been happening to the detriment of the country and are not blinded by his wealth or fooled by his controlling media propaganda.

[sbk]

Seems Taksin is actively trying to reconcile, and hinted at a government of national unity.

Why would that NOT be the way to go if you call yourself democrat, given there's such overwhelming support for Thai Rak Thai?

Reconcile what? He still won't answer questions about his dodgy Themasak deal. People don't want him out simply because they don't like him, he is dishonest and shady and continues to be so. They don't want reconciliation or a place in his government - they want answers. Answers, it seems, he doesn't have or is unwilling to give. That's clearly not acceptable to people who understand what's been happening to the detriment of the country and are not blinded by his wealth or fooled by his controlling media propaganda.

I am sitting here with my (Thai) husband and he feels your analysis is spot on, Doza.

[jomama]

Sorry, but I'm on a roll....

The good looking Democrat "leader" (Abasit?, I know the spelling is wrong), is so effite. In Thai culture people want a strong leader. Not some guy with an extra y-chromosome. Same thing with the former Democrat leader from Trang, Chuan Leekpai; he never owned his own home and was totally ineffectual. He's a pussy, and totally unable to take on the rich interests of Thailand -- controlled by his own the puppet masters.

[chanchao]

> Reconcile what? He still won't answer questions about his dodgy

> Themasak deal.

He actually did, and predictably, a lot of people in Bangkok and the South didn't buy it, or didn't like the man in the first place.

The company his family owns and he was heavily involved got sold, big deal. (Literally, big deal). First the protestors were having a go at him for BEING INVOLVED in such big business while also running the government (conflict of interest, etc.). Then the whole lot gets sold and they're STILL not happy. "Oh, no tax was paid." Hello, Shin is a stock market listed company, there *IS* no tax on selling shares (capital gains, whatever), not in Thailand and not in your country and not in mine. "Oh", did the street mob say, "but he sold it to FOREIGNERS, foreigners are evil, he's selling Thailand".

At that point in time I kind of had it, personally, with Sondhi and anyone crowding around him.

> People don't want him out simply because they don't like him, he

> is dishonest and shady and continues to be so. They don't want reconciliation

> or a place in his government - they want answers. Answers, it seems, he doesn't

> have or is unwilling to give. That's clearly not acceptable to people who

> understand what's been happening to the detriment of the country

I highlighted some parts of your message. You're making the mistake of thinking that the people you meet in Ko Pha Ngan (Surat Thani) are representative of the whole country. Similarly, people in US coastal states had a really hard time grasping why their guy didn't win a year or two ago. Never underestimate the hartland..

And, media control... It's really not hard to find objective or even downright anti-Taksin news sources. I used to like The Nation, but while researching my original post i noted their website title is now "Bangkok's Independent Newspaper".. Strange, they used to be a lot less Bangkok-centric, a paper for "the nation" in fact.

Cheers,

Chanchao

[Insight]

Here's one Chanchao from a close Thai friend of mine. When he initally came to power he advised all Thai businessmen not to put their money offshore as it was bad for the Thai economy.

How does that tie in with his plans for Ample Rich?

[Doza]

You're making the mistake of thinking that the people you meet in Ko Pha Ngan (Surat Thani) are representative of the whole country

I've never met anyone from KPN except backpackers when I travelled there about 4 years ago.?????

'They' meaning his detractors - surely you can work that out.

As for news sources - how many of the 'hartland' [sic] are reading the Nation?

Are you sure about the no tax thing mate? No capital gains tax?

[sbk]

I've never met anyone from KPN except backpackers when I travelled there about 4 years ago.?????

Locals in Koh Phangan are Thais, nothing to do with backpackers. Just so you know, there are about 10,000 Thai people who do actually live on the island

You're making the mistake of thinking that the people you meet in Ko Pha Ngan (Surat Thani) are representative of the whole country.

I never said they represent the rest of the country, just the rest of the South. Which, as you can see, was a near "sweep" for the no vote.

[Insight]

Here's one Chanchao from a close Thai friend of mine. When he initally came to power he advised all Thai businessmen not to put their money offshore as it was bad for the Thai economy.

How does that tie in with his plans for Ample Rich?

Quick edit: He = Thaksin, not my friend

[jomama]

I have some time today and some inclination to write about it:

Taksin Shintatra was originally overwhelmingly elected because he appeared to be a new breed of cat, unfettered by old-time debts that carefully measure family loyalties, deals done, promises made -- he is an outsider, outside the Bangkok power base, and as he said, wanted to transform Thailand’s time-honored (time worn?) system of greng-jai into the modern era of CEO-like management.

His family in Chiang Mai I know nothing about, though I live in Chiang Mai. He has made projects we oppose, but at least he did something, or tried to do something. Something for us to agree with, something for us to oppose.

But he tried.

In some ways revoluntionary.

[chanchao]

> When he initally came to power he advised all Thai businessmen

> not to put their money offshore as it was bad for the Thai economy.

He didn't put his money off shore, he actually got a shhh.. boat load of money from Singapore INTO the country, or at least under control by Thais, ready to invest in Thailand. (or anywhere else) Anyway, big business, that's how things happen.

(Did that convine anyone? Guess not... Okay, let's assume we all agree the man is a crook; George lied, Bill lied, Tony lied, Sylvio lied.. It doesn't matter much as long as you get enough people to vote for you.

And even if you're unhappy with that, the alternative is a lot worse.)

> I've never met anyone from KPN except backpackers when I

> travelled there about 4 years ago.?????

There's probably SOME original locals left. Anyway I didn't want to belittle sbk's opinion by making it seem that only KPN people felt that way, so I put the province in brackets. (Surat).

> 'They' meaning his detractors - surely you can work that out.

Of course. So should his detractors run the country even though a majority just voted the other way, and his detractors didn't even run? (Not getting into the WHY they didn't run, but as a very first step to even BEGIN any kind of democratic participation in running the country, they need to get some people to vote for them, if not now then at any time prior to doing anything in government.

OR, if he actually broke the law, then there would be legal avenues as well.

They seem to think His Majesty can magically put them in government? Bet that would go over well in the North and North East.

I think it's time that the Dems especially realized that there is no way but the democratic way, or they'll end up with a situation they will be a lot worse than anything they've seen the last 5 years. (Or the last 14 years, rather)

Cheers,

Chanchao

[chanchao]

By the way, I'm not pro Taksin/TRT, I'm even putting off getting a haircut because my hairdresser must be the staunchest Taksin supporter in the history of the world and no matter what I say it might not be favourable enough for her. Even being my usual reasonable & diplimatic self, I'm not discussing politics with a razorblade that close.

[Insight]

Cheers for the response Chanchao. No additional comments on the above, but situation #2...

Another friend works as a lawyer for a company that was bidding to put the first 3G network in Thailand. Authorities of Thailand come back with the usual "it has to be 51% Thai owned" lark. They spent lots of time and money looking for suitable Thai investors to set up the company in Thailand in order to qualify for the bidding.

The bidding begins and eventually goes to... The Shin family.

I guess my question is would the opposition be any better/worse in this case?

[Doza]

How did I get caught up in this whole KPN thing?

[steveromagnino]

Is it correct to say that many people will have to vote again in a few weeks time?

Some of the girls i know from Chiang Rai said they had to go back and vote in a few weeks time?

Senator elections later this month, plus bi-elections or whatever they call it when the original result doesn't pass (i.e. TRT got less than 20%).

let's by clear. Sondhi wants to get rid of Taksin. not necessarily TRT, but Taksin - for everyone complaining about his capital gains tax, there are a lot more people complaining about his hiding assets (which he alledgedly bribed one judge to escape from), his selling shares at 1 baht to offshore companies then subsequently selling at full price through family, insider trading, use of govt regulation and manipulation of laws directly to benefit his empire - and all of these things all the while claiming it was his children's idea blah blah blah. Capital gains tax is not the issue here IMHO; it is blatant series of lies and a series of transactions outside the sharemarket plus manipulation of the regulations in his industry that has people upset. Also... the FACT that he put in the law of 49% max foreign ownership, yet appears to have alledgedly used nominees to get to over 90% makes people think...hold up can we trust this guy?

There are a ton of people who trust Sondhi about as much as they trust Taksin; especially since the two were best mates not so long ago. however.... the end result of the Sondhi campaign has been a pretty decent examination of the way Herr Taksin has been running things. It does not mean that all the people who do not like Taksin are homogenous in opinion; far from it.

Some think Somkid could step up and do a good job. I am skeptical that anyone else would have the money and influence necessary to hold the TRT coalition (and it is a coalition) together - the factions many of whom don't like Taksin want to jump ship, but they need something to jump to.

Some think that the Democrats would be better (and despite all the nagging snide comments about Chuan, the reality is that his way of doing things while incredibly poorly communicated (a trademark of democrats here and also in USA) and he was a hopeless leader (lots of corruption under him) he actually got Thailand into a position to afford Taksin spendanomics; read the addresses on Dec 4/5 during Chuan's administration, then read the subsequent ones; I am not the only one feeling this way.)

Some think they all suck.

Some want a new way which has not yet emerged; a more honest politician who actually gives education and skills to the northeast rather than bribes of interest free loans, and parties. Who reduces corruption and increases the welfare state for the underpriveleged yet doesn't do it through selling off national assets (like PTT) at discount prices (sold at 30b, rose to 200b+ within 18 months) and especially doesn't feed at the trough themselves (rumour are that govt officials were the ones buying PTT using nominees. A leader who leads by example (like Chuan to some degree) and can actually communicate to other leaders as well as the public.

This is a necessary step to get the to new way; and if the Dems want to be part of this, they better learn how to communicate and how to formulate clear policies. They also need 100 days between now and a new election, so that some of the TRT factions can jump ship (and they will).

Sadly, the give everything away to everyone policy works really well in Isaan especially, but the money is running out; someone has to step up and be able to communicate how they are going to run things better than how they are now; because right now, Taksin is frigging ineffectual.

[Kerryd]

Then the whole lot gets sold and they're STILL not happy.

"Oh, no tax was paid." Hello, Shin is a stock market listed company, there *IS* no tax on selling shares (capital gains, whatever), not in Thailand and not in your country and not in mine.

Don't tell that to the Revenue guys in my country ! I had to pay Capital Gains taxes every time I sold stock that was worth more than I paid for it. Any loses could be used to offset the amount of Capital Gains tax owed.

That was what caused the whole uproar. The PM went on a holiday to Singapore, told the public he didn't do any business while there, and then 2 or 3 days later it was announced that Singapore investors had bought the majority stake in Shin Corp (just a coincidence I'm sure).

The way I understand it, he avoided paying tax on most of the sale by transferring ownership of the shares to Ample Rich (an off shore company). Some estimate by doing this, he avoided close to 1.3 billion baht in taxes (I read that he only paid a total of 73 million baht in taxes, a long way off of 1.3 billion !)

One of the news stories noted that just before the sale, the PM arranged for a certain piece of financial legislation to be amended. This amendment apparently helped pave the way for the sale itself, which otherwise may have been illegal.

I haven't followed it very closely, but I recall that there were supposed violations of the Thai SEC reporting rules (something about not reporting the transfer/sale of the shares). His son is also in hot water about that, but his daughter has apparently been cleared.

This wouldn't be the first time an elected leader used his position to further his (or his "family's") interests.

In Canada, our previous two Prime Ministers both used their office to enhance their bottom lines.

In one case, a convicted criminal was turned down for a developement loan to improve a hotel next to a golf course (it just happened that the Prime Minister was a part owner in that golf course). The PM had "his people" coerce the Bank President into granting the loan, even though the bank considered it too risky. (Having a nice hotel next to the golf course increased the value of his shares in the golf course).

He also used his influence to get another guy a loan. In another amazing coincidence, that guy happened to owe the PM's private law firm money. The only way he could pay it off was with a loan that the bank originally turned him down for.

Our last PM owned a shipping company (cargo ships). During his term as finance minister, that shipping company enjoyed a lot of government business. After becoming the PM, he had to get rid of the company to avoid conflict of interest, so what did he do ? Handed it over to his sons. I'm sure he would never approve any deals that would benefit his sons over someone else

(note, about 2 weeks after being elected, the police/coast guard did a random inspection of one of his company's ships. The ship was named after his wife and had just made a trip from Venezuela.

They found 80 kgs of cocaine hidden in a ballast hold. No one was arrested or charged )

So elected leaders using their office to help themselves is not just a Thailand thing

[jomama]

When the Thaksin years are analyzed, they will be seen to be an effort to truly internalize the country, an effort to make free trade agreements, to make the old, lazy bureaucrats accountable.

Hard to drag all those bags at the same time.

While Thaksin’s reach may have exceeded his grasp he worked damned hard to change the country, and Thailand is a damned hard country to change.

I would like to hear from all the Thailand apologists like Ajarn to reassure us that the old way is OK; that any change or criticism of any Thai people inevitably leads back to the fact that I’m just stupid, or don’t undertsand, or I’m so terribly insensitive.

[sbk]

You brought up the backpacker issue doza, not me

I never said that Koh Phangan was representative of the nation nor even of the South but when one looks at the election results it is pretty clear that Surat Thani IS representative of the feelings in the South.

And just a quick note jomama, what makes you think that corruption has lessened in this country? Sure, some bureaucrats are forced to be more clean but on the whole, I think K Jaruvan might disagree with you.

So, back to the whole topic at hand

The elections and their aftermath: A national unity reconciliation government? How does that mesh with a CEO style PM?