What's Next For The Democrats?

[chanchao]

So.. I thought Thaksin looked rather good, looking the more 'human' than ever to date, and making it totally obvious that he's putting King & Country before himself. Thus, to many people, he demonstrated that he really is the most mature side in this whole dispute. Sondhi obviously didn't give a (*#&$, and the Dems were their usual quiet self.

Still, regardless if you agree with the former, the reality is that the turnout was a still pretty healthy 65%, and that 54% of those (an absolute majority), actively voted FOR TRT, with the opposition getting.... nothing.

Assuming he has gained some face & support with his apparent move to resolve the conflict (that really most Thais wanted to end anyway), with some focus & perhaps financial lubrication, there's every chance that in the remaining 38 constituencies he can get a 20% vote for TRT in a by-election.. He managed that in 362 other constituencies, and with some added personal credit, chances are the remaining ones can be scooped up, too.

So where does that leave the Dems? Nowhere, right? Seems to me they should have joined a reconciliatory panel / national unity government when they had the chance because currently all the marbles are in TRT's basket, with Thaksin comfortably pulling the strings?

Discuss.

[jdinasia]

Yeppers you are missing something

1st priority ... get a Parlaiment

2nd priority ... deal with the constitution

3rd priority... new elections.

[olaus]

We have been able the last weeks to witness a very shrewd politician, Mr Thaksin, in action.

Brilliant to announce he will resign just now. The Democratic Party lies in ruins. And Thaksin is in charge, maybe for decades. And the most funny is that everybody seem to be happy. Thaksin has deceived them all. He only smiles.

[Rinrada]

Could suggest that we now have a one Party State....just like all those nice old Commi countries in the past...Comrade T..... da da Tavarish...dus ve dan u......

[britmaveric]

Genius when you think about it, very dumb move for opposition parties not to participate. (need a safety net, now they have none)

[Bryan in Isaan]

Yeppers you are missing something

1st priority ... get a Parlaiment

2nd priority ... deal with the constitution

3rd priority... new elections. my emphasis

Good topic, I have been wondering about them myself. It seems like now would be a good time for them to begin to act statesmanlike and not gloat over the PM's resignation, and above all, don't make anymore messes before the King's 60th anniversery celebration. Barring a miracle, I doubt if they could ever come out of the present situation with a net gain. They had 20 - 25% seats before the dissolution of parliament. If they had played ball and participated in the snap election they probably would had 20 - 25% seats - mostly from the south and Bangkok. Next election I don't know.

Anyway, speaking of the new elections, someone explain this for me. Are there not going to be some by elections first, to fill the parliament? Are the Democrats invited to those? Then, after some tweaking of the constitution, an entirely new election?

[roscoe]

So.. I thought Thaksin looked rather good, looking the more 'human' than ever to date, and making it totally obvious that he's putting King & Country before himself. Thus, to many people, he demonstrated that he really is the most mature side in this whole dispute. Sondhi obviously didn't give a (*#&$, and the Dems were their usual quiet self.

Still, regardless if you agree with the former, the reality is that the turnout was a still pretty healthy 65%, and that 54% of those (an absolute majority), actively voted FOR TRT, with the opposition getting.... nothing.

Assuming he has gained some face & support with his apparent move to resolve the conflict (that really most Thais wanted to end anyway), with some focus & perhaps financial lubrication, there's every chance that in the remaining 38 constituencies he can get a 20% vote for TRT in a by-election.. He managed that in 362 other constituencies, and with some added personal credit, chances are the remaining ones can be scooped up, too.

So where does that leave the Dems? Nowhere, right? Seems to me they should have joined a reconciliatory panel / national unity government when they had the chance because currently all the marbles are in TRT's basket, with Thaksin comfortably pulling the strings?

Discuss.

yes you are missing something

[chanchao]

Yes, continue... what am I missing....?

[Donz]

probaly ด่รเเดกกำ ไหแทนรรี้เพก

[chanchao]

That's unintelligible, even in Thai.

[Siripon]

Genius when you think about it, very dumb move for opposition parties not to participate. (need a safety net, now they have none)

Poor old brit, insisted all along his hero would never resign.

What are you going to say if an investigation committee is set up into Thaksin's activities over the last 5 years?-Another shrewd move by the ex leader?!

Face it brit,Thaksin hopelessly misjudged the educated populace. He panicked when Jamlong joined Sonthi, calling a totally unnecessary election. Then he didn't expect the Opposition to boycott he election. But he still thought the protest vote would be manageable, not 10 million with over a million deliberately spoiled ballot papers.

A wise leader does not polarise a country.

He may yet come back but his credibility is gone, too many flipflops,' I'll never dissolve Parliament in this lifetime', being his latest.

Don't worry about the Democrats, they have the South and they'll be back within 18 months. The TRT MPs in Bangkok should be feeling uneasy, especially the celebrity Mr Brooke, Mr NO vote overwhelmingly outnumbered him , was it 4 to one?

[chuchok]

That's unintelligible, even in Thai.

he's posting from Sydney.says it all really.....

[Donz]

That's unintelligible, even in Thai.

he's posting from Sydney.says it all really.....

What says it all??

[cmcarrent]

Based on the interview with the PAD Leaders on ASTV and The Nation after Toxin announced his resignation, instead of holding by-elections which may never reap results as it will still be the same one-party-TRT against the Ghost, the PAD Leaders are trying to push for another fresh election with all the opposition parties joining in the election.

By the way, on ASTV last night, the PAD Rally in South Thailand has attracted a surprisingly huge audience; IMHO, "IF" the PAD could think out of the box other than teaching the Southerners to shout "Thaksin Awk Pai", this is a good chance to listen to what exactly the Southerners think and may probably solve the problem of the violence in the South of Thailand? Or...just wishful thinking?

[thebear]

Genius when you think about it, very dumb move for opposition parties not to participate. (need a safety net, now they have none)

Absolutely agree, Thaksin called their bluff and outsmarted allof them - the panic button has already been pushed if the advance campaigning for the re-elections is anything to go by. Sukhumvit is already littered with camaign posters every 3 meters!

[Siripon]

Genius when you think about it, very dumb move for opposition parties not to participate. (need a safety net, now they have none)

Absolutely agree, Thaksin called their bluff and outsmarted allof them - the panic button has already been pushed if the advance campaigning for the re-elections is anything to go by. Sukhumvit is already littered with camaign posters every 3 meters!

Erm, you may find those posters are for the Senate election later this month, are the posters small with a number ranging from 1 to 180 odd ?

[Tarragona]

Absolutely agree, Thaksin called their bluff and outsmarted allof them - the panic button has already been pushed if the advance campaigning for the re-elections is anything to go by. Sukhumvit is already littered with camaign posters every 3 meters!

Erm, you may find those posters are for the Senate election later this month, are the posters small with a number ranging from 1 to 180 odd ?

I don't think there are any re-elections in Bangkok anyway.

The Democrats will not be down and out because there will be new elections before too long. It's still not clear what will happen to TRT with a new leader nor what role Thaksin will take in things. Remember that Sanoh's faction were already unhappy with life as part of TRT. With enough time to prepare for an election maybe they will move elsewhere.

[steveromagnino]

Let's review

Taksin is happily running things, with a number of his own party (a few factions) getting increasingly upset at what he is doing - things start going wrong - the south, diesel subsidy, economic growth faltering a bit, and some personal allegations starting to mount up - kids being admitted into university, CTX, that sort of thing...

The democrats don't have enough votes to censure him, but their address last year plus the damage from Chuwit start to open a door for people to consider maybe this guy doesn't have every answer....

Then Sondhi sees his chance; even though he is just as dirty, he airs some major dirt and this starts the current fight; Chamlong getting into the fray is a major step (Taksin's mentor) and the Dems stand aside a little; many do NOT like Sondhi's willingness to appeal to the King all the time, because they are not feeling quite the same way. Major dirt starts coming out; then the whole AIS thing blows up.

Bangkok becomes strongly anti Taksin.... Taksin reacts poorly (although it could be a master stroke) and increases the heat so that BKK becomes quite polarised.

He then appears to make a compromise, and he calls a snap election, but with insufficient time for members of TRT to leave the TRT coaltion (and there are factions wanting to do so). Knowing that he can buy Isaan (both through things like 30b healthcare as well as direct payments) and will win the north, his superior market research of polling means he knows he will win. Again. He also knows that there is insufficient time for the opposition (who are NOT the PAD) to prepare. The incumbent always has an advantage in this situation if they have money; and he has his own plus CP money plus various other backers.

I think it is obvious to all that the snap election was a shrewd move by Taksin because he knew this would give him a mandate Bush style to continue doing what he is doing if he won.

Opposition called his bluff, knowing they could not win, they decided to risk it with a boycott.

The result has worked; TRT are going to be unable to form a parliament and despite multiple bielections, I cannot see them ever winning enough seats (they need all 500 filled before they can move onto the next step). It is likely IMHO that there will be another general election called and with 100 days notice perhaps.

Taksin has now shrewdly won back the respect of the voters, by being the 'bigger man' and standing down as PM, but keeping his hand in. Let's remember that it is his money holding a lot of this TRT coalition together; without that, he may not be able to hold everyone in line. He will now nominate a successor and be the power behind the throne.

The Dems are now in a not too good position; TRT have played this one out well; if there is another election, we can expect that TRT will win Isaan and the north again with a few isolated exceptions. Dems and other opposition will win central and south, but that is not enough to form a govt unless there are some factions breaking away from TRT>

He will now be remembered for the things he did (even though many were financial suicide or wreaked of conflict of interest) because most people aren't knowing enough or don't care enough for the consequences. His stepping down has won him a lot of respect I think.

The Dems are in the same position as for the last 10 years. They need to learn from TRT:

- a clear policy platform that anyone can understand (3-4 major points)

- a few giveaways to the poor to win a few votes and pretend they care

- a strong personality as a leader

HOwever they also need:

- a solution for the south other than guns and shooting people

- major curbs on corruption by politicians and big business (which has been more rife under TRT than probably any other govt, and much of this cannot be undone e.g. FTAs)

- actual real policies to help the poor (rather than giving them interest free money and land all the time)

- actual real policies to upgrade Thailand's competitive advantage

- reduction in govt spending (eliminate rubbish like Bangkok fashion city and Elite card etc)

- addressing transport and infrastructure including BKK

- deregulation of major industries in a transparent and fair manner

Until they sort out what they could learn from TRT< I cannot see them running the country.

Like I said right around the time of the election; some people LIKE TRT, they just don't like Herr Taksin. Somkid is seen to be a more responsible finance guy (even though really he is a marketer) who listens to his advisors and would not have many of the conflict of interest issues. However, is he charasmatic enough to run things? Can he hold his backers (e.g. CP, Shin) in check?

[jdinasia]

well thought out post .....

I disagree with

HOwever they also need:

- a solution for the south other than guns and shooting people

- major curbs on corruption by politicians and big business (which has been more rife under TRT than probably any other govt, and much of this cannot be undone e.g. FTAs)

- actual real policies to help the poor (rather than giving them interest free money and land all the time)

- actual real policies to upgrade Thailand's competitive advantage

- reduction in govt spending (eliminate rubbish like Bangkok fashion city and Elite card etc)

Because this all applies to TRT as well ....

Not sure if I see the results being the same yet .... I am hoping for a Gov't where the opposition whoever they are can censure the PM ... hugely important