Japan Says It Faces Increasing Threats from China, North Korea

[Scott]

The only language allowed on the forum is English. Post deleted.

[SinglePot]

"The notion that the chinese dislike the US, I actually found hard to believe.

Every chinese national i've met abroad, have always been very nice and favorable to myself and the US in conversation.

Maybe its a case of, "keep you friends close, but your enemys closer".

Very possibly jam.

I have met middle class educated Chinese like doctors and pharmacists who find it difficult to conceal their desire for big west pharmaceutical companies money, and at the same time their contempt for the west.

[boomerangutang]

It's a big issue, with many components, but I've got a few minutes to take a stab at it. First off, I agree with Publicus - keep posting bro., and consider writing a book. Really. People around the world need to get a clearer picture of what China is about.

I think a large measure is psychological. the 20th century was awful for China. Tens of millions of Chinese killed or starved or murdered. Most of the deaths, even during WWII, were by their own countrymen. Arguably, the #1 killer was Chairman Mao (more deaths than Stalin), both through his dumb-headed stupidity, and via his planning. The Chinese are scared shitless of developing an inferiority complex (or being perceived as inept), so they lash out in myriad ways. They covet parts of nearly every country they border (and beyond ...the sea). They won't allow any discussion of Tibet, they even outlaw Facebook because it's a venue for truth. I could rant on, but I'll put the pit bull to rest for now.

[Publicus]

Japan ASDF fighters scrambled against North Korea aircraft for first time in four years

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/07/10/national/asdf-fighters-scrambled-against-north-korea-aircraft-for-first-time-in-four-years/#.Uer_4Z2wpdh

Air Self-Defense Force fighter jets scrambled nine times against North Korean military aircraft between April and June, the Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

The scrambles were the first against North Korean aircraft since 2009, when the reclusive state launched a long-range ballistic missile.

According to the ministry, between April and June, ASDF fighters scrambled nine times when North Korean aircraft flew over the Sea of Japan. But there were no intrusions into Japanese airspace, the ministry added.

The ministry believes North Korea was using its military aircraft in an attempt to gather information after the SDF deployed Aegis destroyers in the Sea of Japan against possible missile launches by the hermit state.

According to the ministry’s Joint Staff, ASDF fighters scrambled a total of 115 times between April and June, including 69 times against Chinese aircraft, the highest on a country basis, and 31 times against Russian aircraft.

[Publicus]

A core component of CCP indoctrination and domestic propaganda is to fill the PRChinese with vengeance for what it continually teaches in the schools, and in their media, was the "Century of Shame" when the European powers and Japan ravaged a China that had stagnated since the 15th century. The so-called Century of Shame is roughly 1830 to Mao's victory in the civil war in 1949, which is

a bit more than a century, but the Chinese (until recently) have the habit of thinking in centuries (they now think in decades).

There's a long list of countries the CCP has earmarked for vengeance, but Japan is right up there among the top two, the United States being number one simply because it continues to dominate the world, tho less so since the turn of the 21st century. The historical Chinese hate of Japan is a thousand times worse than any historical European rivalry, such as England and France, or Germany and France. It's a flaming passion.

The list however is long, as we've seen in Beijing's recent aggressive territorial assertions against Japan, its claim of sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, which anyway needs to be renamed the South East Asia Sea - only 3100 km of the South China Sea touch the shores of the PRC while 130,000 km are on the shores of Asean countries, so there is continuing conflict between Beijing and Asean. Beijing claims India's northernmost province, claims all of Siberia and so much else against almost every country of the Indo-Pacific region of the world. The CCP-PRC in this region of the world has become the Neighbor From Hell, a grotesque bully.

Much of this is to get the nationalism up of the PRChinese people so they can see the CCP as the champion of a resurgent CCP-PRC which is going to resume its rightful place as rulers of the world, which always has been a Chinese fantasy since the first emperor Qin more than 2000 years ago (pron: Chin, hence China due to its English pronunciation shift).

The Chinese, who continue to clutch irrevocably to their ancient idea of dictatorship as the only form of government, think and believe they are the normal people of the modern - and ancient - world.

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The notion that the chinese dislike the US, I actually found hard to believe.

Every chinese national i've met abroad, have always been very nice and favorable to myself and the US in conversation.

Maybe its a case of, "keep you friends close, but your enemys closer".

It goes without saying that we remain unpopular in a few places. Here are the 10 nations with the least favorable impression of the U.S., according to Pew:

1. Pakistan (percentage with a favorable view of the United States: 11%)

2. Jordan (14%)

3. Palestinian territories (16%)

4. Egypt (16%)

5. Turkey (21%)

6. Greece (39%)

7. China (40%)

8. Argentina (41%)

9. Tunisia (42%)

10. Lebanon (47%)

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/10-countries-love-hate-america-most-163930019.html

#6 is Greece? <deleted> did we ever do the the Greeks?

And surprisingly, Japan isnt on the list of the countries with the most favorable impression of the US.

My personal experience is the same, i.e., while the CCP teaches the PRChinese to hate the United States, the Chinese people themselves find it a hard thing to do. The PRChinese know the US is a highly successful country, society, economy, nation. They are amazed that a young country can surpass China so quickly and by such great leaps and bounds. Consequently they admire and respect our successes and figure we must have something special going for us, which we of course do.

The "soft power" of the US is strong globally and is strong in the PRC. The PRChinese love American movies, music, singers, television and tv stars - the works. They can't watch these things on Central China Television but can and do access them via internet. Still, the CCP had limited Hollywood movies allowed into the PRC to seven per year. This however was recently increased to 11 due to the efforts of SECSTATE Hillary Clinton before she left the position.

Hillary Clinton is another point of soft power, i.e., the leaders of the CCP are men yet the PRChinese saw Clinton come close to becoming president of this amazing country in 2008 and the most politically aware presently know that Clinton is the odds on favorite to be elected in 2016. This points out to PRChinese young women the stark contrast between the old baggy faced men who lead the CCP-PRC, that the CCP is a men's only club, and that a woman becoming president of such a young, vibrant, dynamic country, is a factor that makes the USA an even more remarkable and attractive place to the PRChinese.

It is clear that the more the CCP teaches against the United States on a daily basis, the more the young PRChinese generations are intrigued by it and attracted to us.

[SinglePot]

"It is clear that the more the CCP teaches against the United States on a daily basis, the more the young PRChinese generations are intrigued by it and attracted to us."

I agree with a lot you say Pub. Just need to be a bit careful about extrapolating too much from the university boys and girls who are happy to question the status quo.

You know as well as I do that there is a large body of Chinese people still reading from the old song sheet.

The young intelligentsia may well want political reform and McDonalds.

The pervading mentality is the Chinese Dream ( rampant consumerism) will be at the expense of the American Dream.

In business (not necessarily in Universities) China wants what the west does well....BUT ON THEIR terms.

On the issue of women in power. China has a very rapidly increasing percentage of women in higher paid and influential jobs. I could dig out some statistics if you need proof.

The sad reality is in my experience, these new women run their operations just the same way the old baggy faced men run theirs.

Not surprising really. Where did they get their education?

I think there is a big opportunity for a US Business School in Beijing. But it would be shortlived. China would use it, then dump it.

[boomerangutang]

Lots of good points in the preceding two posts. I agree that US media, particularly movies, is a big factor in influencing how people perceive the US. It has been, around the world, for decades. You could almost say: 'whomever makes the most good movies, has the most influence.' I think YouTube also has a big influence. Even the 'fail' compilations, which must be v. popular worldwide. They show how 'human,' fallible, and fun-loving - all folks are. I think Hollywood and Youtube do more to avert WWIII than all the running around, posturing, and bloated statements - by politicians and diplomats.

[SinglePot]

good post from boomerang.

The sooner the CCP stop blocking YouTube the better.

[Scott]

Troll post removed.

[Publicus]

1. anti US people have got no idea of the realities that the US deal with as per this thread.

Their biggest weapon is their obstinacy and focus on getting what they want.

Japan is rightly concerned.

Well, you oversimplify the issue in your first point - if you live in a 'with us or against us' world then you are the loser in this while game because there shades of gray and only an imbecile accepts everything carte blanche

Your second point here (my apologies that I cut the sentences between the two) is so very spot on. Obstinate is a very, very apt description. Very apt.

I've been in China possibly 20 times on business and my brother and his wife both worked for embassies in Beijing . . . and though it can be quite an interesting place . . . in the end you just want to leave.

You're talking about the CCP-PRC, not the United States. It's Beijing and the PRChinese who live in the 'with us or against us' world.

Bush and the neocons are gone forever from power in Washington - they completely discredited themselves in their cynical overreaction to 9/11 and by their own concomitant 'with us or against us' attitudes. Those times are forever gone from Washington. The black-white attitude rules in Beijing, very strongly so and is the core of the CCP's rule - the world is against the PRC so the CCP is asserting the CCP-PRC against the hostile world which doesn't appreciate the PRC or the pre-PRC China.

In fact, the CCP creates a PRChinese attitude of it's the world against China and that the world has been against China for the past 150 years, if not longer. The CCP paints China as the victim of the cruel and cynical world, the Chinese always having been the innocents - peaceful and minding their own business. That's the self-image the PRChinese sheeple have of themselves, both historically and during the past 64 years under the CCP.

Beijing is not looking for allies, the U.S. always is. Beijing will do it alone and prefers to do it alone. It's the world against the CCP-PRC, which is exactly how Beijing likes it, needs it to be, always will need it to be. Stated conversely, it's the PRC led by the CCP against the world, Japan and the USA first and foremost.

The American people want to have allies, not to cause friends to become distant or opposed, or to make fence-sitters into enemies.

It's really quite easy to notice that Bush and the neocons have been out of power for a long time now, are gone forever, and that the U.S. has instead returned to its historical role in the world, i.e., rebuilding its historical alliances and creating new ones. That's the black-white of it in respect to the U.S.

[Publicus]

Here's another major strategic project recently made in China.

Just two or three years ago, this "Strategic Triangle" idea did not exist.

However, Beijing's recent belligerence against Japan, its assertions all of the South China Sea belongs to the CCP-PRC, and that the northern part of India rightfully belongs to China, have created a new strategic thinking among the nations directly affected by Beijing's newly revealed bellicose attitude towards its neighbors, and towards the whole of the neighborhood in general.

Strategic Triangle: A Japan-Australia-India Coalition at Sea?

http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2013/07/21/strategic-triangle-a-japan-australia-india-coalition-at-sea/

The Naval Diplomat ventured from sweltering New England to sweltering Washington, DC last Friday to explore Japanese maritime cooperation with fellow Asian seafaring powers. Well, cooperation with powers apart from A Certain Large Asian Power Whose Name May Not Be Spoken, anyway.

Japan, Australia, and India lie along a vast outer maritime crescent enclosing continental East Asia.

If the outer-crescent powers are liberal seagoing republics, the inner crescent is home to an assemblage of (mostly) continental nations. With the exception of Thailand, the interior countries all fell to Imperial Japanese conquest within living memory.

Certain social, cultural, and ideological affinities may supply lubricant to smooth out bilateral or tripartite relations among the parties. Japan, Australia, and India are constitutional republics whose governing arrangements would gladden Immanuel Kant's heart.

The effort is worth undertaking, and Tokyo should pursue it with vigor.

The author, Dr James R. Holmes is a defense analyst for The Diplomat and a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College where he specializes in U.S., Chinese and Indian maritime strategy.

[boomerangutang]

"Strategic Triangle"? Looks a bit more like a crescent, to me, but not in a Muslim way. Interesting concept. Along those lines, extend the crescent a bit further, and there's Pakistan at one end, and N.Korea at the other. Yikes.

[Publicus]

"Strategic Triangle"? Looks a bit more like a crescent, to me, but not in a Muslim way. Interesting concept. Along those lines, extend the crescent a bit further, and there's Pakistan at one end, and N.Korea at the other. Yikes.

I share the "yikes" about it. Pakistan and N Korea are in close cooperation if not geographic proximity. Geographically, however, Pakistan and N Korea do anchor the arc or triangle, however it's identified.

And the CCP-PRC is closely connected to each Pakistan and N Korea so the new idea of a Strategic Triangle or arc is an excellent counter weight, or counter balance to the connections among the three axis countries anchored by the CCP-PRC. It's a reaction to the newly revealed, previously shrouded, aggressiveness by the CCP-PRC throughout the region.

It seems Beijing since the heady days of the 2008 Olympics can't hold its water any longer so has struck out prematurely to try to assert itself by stating all of the absurd territorial claims it imagines, fantasizes, cooks up, to stir the nationalism of the PRC sheeple. The Boyz in Beijing serve their own interests by presenting themselves to the sheeple of the PRC as their good guy against the world, beginning with all the "wrongs" its neighbors have inflicted on it over recent centuries. The "wrongs" are mostly fantasies too, but serve the aggressive purposes of the CCP in Beijing. Has the world ever known a fascist regime that isn't aggressive toward the world and which doesn't present itself as innocents victimized?

Australia remains a central factor in all of this.

Although Australians easily recognize that, as of the turn of the 21st century, their major countries are in the region itself, no longer half way distant across the world, Australia firmly remains connected to the United States and has developed new relations with the major democracies of the region. We see this in its continued close contact and cooperation with the U.S. and more recently in connection to Japan and India. Australia and Indonesia continue to develop their relationship and Oz and Singapore just had military drills and cooperative training efforts as well.

A clear divide is occurring in the Indo-Pacific Seas, all of which is initiated in and by Beijing.

PM Shinzo Abe just had another big election victory in Japan and already has spoken of the Indo-Pacific "Democracy Diamond" from Japan to Hawaii, to Australia and on to India.

These reactions show how the CCP in Beijing are a bunch of klutzes and are the opposite of Sun Tzu. Instead of picking of one country at a time, as Sun Tzu would do, Beijing is lashing out at the entire region in one broad and sweeping stroke, thus suddenly and swiftly realigning all of it into a strategic defensive posture against the hard reality that the CCP-PRC never planned or intended to have a peaceful rise.

[SinglePot]

triangles, crescents, whatever.

China sees itself as the Middle Kingdom.

The regime is a bullying, repressive, malicious outfit.

Publicus has referred to 'soft power' in an earlier post.

They don't understand subtlety or finesse.

A common trait in China is to talk loudly. For the Chinese it is a demonstration of security and stability.

There is no soft power in China. They don't understand the concept.

Macho. Bully. Control.

The women in business management positions are just the same.

Chinese expect Hilary Clinton to be just the same as their leadership.

They are wired up differently from us.

Obstinate, self centred as individuals, possibly related to the one child policy (they have no brothers or sisters), and completely unable to think outside their rigid boxes.

Hierarchical society. Keep your head down, do your job, don't ask questions, tow the party line.

Publicus's students will not change the regime in a lifetime.

In the meantime, China will take what it wants from other nations without compromise.

[Publicus]

triangles, crescents, whatever.

China sees itself as the Middle Kingdom.

The regime is a bullying, repressive, malicious outfit.

Publicus has referred to 'soft power' in an earlier post.

They don't understand subtlety or finesse.

A common trait in China is to talk loudly. For the Chinese it is a demonstration of security and stability.

There is no soft power in China. They don't understand the concept.

Macho. Bully. Control.

The women in business management positions are just the same.

Chinese expect Hilary Clinton to be just the same as their leadership.

They are wired up differently from us.

Obstinate, self centred as individuals, possibly related to the one child policy (they have no brothers or sisters), and completely unable to think outside their rigid boxes.

Hierarchical society. Keep your head down, do your job, don't ask questions, tow the party line.

Publicus's students will not change the regime in a lifetime.

In the meantime, China will take what it wants from other nations without compromise.

Yeah, the CCP (and the Russians) don't get "soft power."

The CCP thinks and believes it can promote soft power through the institutions of the state. The CCP misses completely that soft power is exclusively generated by democracy by, to borrow a term, a thousand points of original light.

That is, that which we call soft power is generated by the individual and by individuals acting together in groups of common interest. Soft power originates from the people themselves, not from or by the state.

Yes, the PRChinese are wired differently from democratic society and have been wired differently due to 5000 uninterrupted years of dictatorship - the CCP is the new dynasty of emperors in business suits, and a nervous young dynasty it is. That's because the CCP is a dynasty without any clue.

The CCP-PRC is a barren place, devoid of culture or an actual society. It hasn't artists of any category who are free, independent, rewarded for original thoughts and works. You can't go to a ball game of any kind in the PRC unless you can stand the CBA and its bush league caliber of national basketball. The PRChinese are lousy athletes because there aren't any athletic programs except for the concentration camp existence from childhood Olympics training centers.

One could go on. PRChinese don't learn to play musical instruments, don't learn to paint unless it's in the service of the Party, i.e., the state, don't write poetry or free thinking social or political analysis or commentary etc etc.

The only thing soft about the CCP-PRC are their banana brains.

[NeverSure]

China's bigger problem is its economy. More specifically its debt. Many think its flush with cash including holding some US debt, but it can't get rid of that or it's export would crumble - FOREX it's called. Its exports, especially the larger more profitable items have dropped.

It's GDP includes the money spent for massive infrastructure and the now-famous ghost cities.

"That $3.4 trillion in forex reserves? Irrelevant http://qz.com/96895/the-scary-reality-of-chinas-debt-crisis/

So what can the Chinese government do about this? One thing the PBOC can’t do is use its foreign exchange reserves to bail out the banks. This is often assumed to be an option, but it isn’t. The PBOC’s $3.4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves are denominated in various currencies; selling them for yuan would strengthen the yuan, killing China’s export trade. It would also be massively deflationary, as it would reduce the amount of yuan in circulation. That would worsen the current liquidity squeeze unless balanced by a form of reverse sterilization, like lowering the required reserve ratio (RRR). And that brings us to the next point."

"So what’s on the horizon?

Even if it was unintentionally severe, the fact that the government has been crackdown on the interbank financing channels showed that government officials are intent on curbing excessive lending sooner. At the same time, a slew of wealth management products mature at the end of the June, which could trigger more interbank mayhem. That might be enough to prompt more loosening.

But even if the PBOC does pump money back into the system, it might not matter, says J Capital’s Stevenson-Yang, since big banks are too spooked to lend to smaller ones. “It will be calm now for a week or two and then there will be another shock—and a pretty big one,” she says. “It could be capital flight, or really bad trade numbers. But you’re going to hear the great sucking sound of money leaving China.”

[Publicus]

Yes, when the CCP's economy and financial system goes bust, this year or next year, Japan and others won't have to worry about the CCP-PRC military.

New Developments Threaten To Burst China's Staggering Housing Bubble

Read more: http://soberlook.com...l#ixzz2XqPoT5SY

Societe Generale's Wei Yao like other experts believes that policymakers are willing to stomach short term pain for stable long-term economic growth. Bottom-line: A credit burst is painful and inevitable:

"In our view, there is no other ending to China’s massive credit misallocation than a painful burst. The question is when will it start unwinding and at what pace. Given the control that Beijing has over the economy and financial system, the answer lies more with the political willingness and/or policy (mis-)calculation, at least at the beginning of the process.

Or would we?!

The Threat of a Declining China

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/112770-the-threat-of-a-declining-china/

As the Chinese juggernaut starts to lose momentum, should Americans be breathing a collective sigh of relief? Not really. Unfortunately, China’s decline is likely to be a lot less peaceful than its rise. China, not the United States, is fated to be the “declining power” for the remainder of this decade

Slower growth will pose an existential problem for the Chinese Communist Party. Ever since the end of the Maoist era in 1978, economic development has been the Party’s primary source of legitimacy. A prolonged slowdown will weaken its hold on power in much the same way that crop failures during imperial times undermined the emperor’s claim to the “mandate of heaven.” If China is not going to be “No. 1” after all, some other justification for Party rule will be urgently needed.

The Party’s best bet will be to play the nationalist card, making the defense of the motherland its primary mission. This will not be difficult. It will be easy to blame China’s economic failures on the machinations of foreign powers, even as Mao Zedong did in his famous speech proclaiming the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. The fact that China had “fallen behind,” he said, was “due entirely to oppression and exploitation by foreign imperialism and domestic reactionary governments.”

It will also be easy to put the Chinese economy on a war footing. China’s central planning institutions are well suited to the mobilization of resources for defense industries. A military buildup would also help to alleviate excess capacity problems in heavy industry. Total excess capacity in the steel sector, for example, already exceeds total U.S. capacity. Arms manufacturing is likely to be seen as a good way to put idle plants back online.

Given that dialogue is likely to be ineffective, the United States must focus instead on defending its strategic interests in the Pacific. It must continue to strengthen ties with its regional partners, particularly Japan and Taiwan, which are likely to be the main targets of Chinese military adventurism.

Xi’s war drums sound in China

http://chinadailymail.com/2013/05/07/xis-war-drums/

Xi has taken charge at a moment when China has been building up its military power as never before, surprising the United States and shocking its neighbours with the speedy development of new hardware and the aggressive manner in which it has deployed those tools to support its expanding ambitions.

Top U.S. intelligence analysts and generals have admitted to being caught out by the 2011 flight-testing of China’s new J-20 stealth fighter. They were dumbfounded by China’s subsequent deployment of the East Wind 21D, the world’s first anti-ship ballistic missile, dubbed the “assassin’s mace” in China and “the carrier killer” in the West. And now China is on track to nearly triple its fleet of maritime strike aircraft by 2020, according to the U.S. Congressional Research Service. Its naval weapons – and capabilities – are proceeding even faster.

China is simultaneously developing and producing seven types of submarine and surface warships. That’s after a decade in which it quadrupled its number of modern submarines, including nuclear submarines designed to carry nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. It has massively expanded production of corvettes, frigates, amphibious ships, and destroyers. In September, China launched its first aircraft carrier, which it has flagged as a training platform for others to come.

Then there’s the less visible but perhaps more troubling escalating cyber war now being waged with hyperactive assertiveness by PLA cyber units that have reportedly penetrated deeply and repeatedly into key U.S. government departments and top U.S. defence, media, and technology companies. Along with probing infrastructure vulnerabilities and spying on commercial transactions, they have reportedly pilfered military designs and technology.

Mandiant, an IT security firm, reported in February that it had traced 141 specific cyber attacks to a single PLA unit based in Shanghai. The PLA has been tasked with “systematic cyber espionage and data theft against organisations around the world,” the report stated.

“No other great power today enjoys China’s ability to dedicate such vast amounts of capital and personnel so dynamically to such a wide range of new programs,” says Andrew Erickson, an expert on PLA technology at the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute. “China enjoys unparalleled flexibility and adaptability and could increase production rapidly if desired.”

The backstop for all these new platforms and capabilities is the PLA’s strategic missile force, which possesses conventional ballistic missiles that can destroy satellites in space, plus as many as 400 nuclear weapons. The dizzying display of hard power is sending fear and awe throughout the Asia-Pacific region. But Xi, it seems, is unconvinced that all this shiny hardware can be effectively deployed by an organization that was designed for civil war and adapted in recent decades as a political force to ensure the party’s grip on power.

[boomerangutang]

I read an article by a Chinese U professor (can't find citations, it was awhile ago) who was lamenting the lack of broad knowledge among students in China. They're v. well versed on the answers expected on exams (probably already have the cheat sheet to study), but outside of that, they're not well-versed.

Another angle: I've been a wwoof host for about 7 years. Wwoof is basically a work-exchange for backpackers worldwide. Of 100's of youngsters I've been host to, only one group was from Thailand (my farmstead is in Thailand) and until recently the only other group from Asia were Singaporean. However, recently, the first two Chinese stayed here - 2 boys around 20, so that's encouraging (to me) to see they're starting to become aware of the eye-opening Wwoof program (and couchsurfing, etc). A pair of Chinese girls are scheduled to partake in August. It's a drop in the bucket, but hopefully a trend of more young Chinese venturing out to interact with other nationalities around the world - on more than just a tourist-group level.

[Publicus]

I read an article by a Chinese U professor (can't find citations, it was awhile ago) who was lamenting the lack of broad knowledge among students in China. They're v. well versed on the answers expected on exams (probably already have the cheat sheet to study), but outside of that, they're not well-versed.

Another angle: I've been a wwoof host for about 7 years. Wwoof is basically a work-exchange for backpackers worldwide. Of 100's of youngsters I've been host to, only one group was from Thailand (my farmstead is in Thailand) and until recently the only other group from Asia were Singaporean. However, recently, the first two Chinese stayed here - 2 boys around 20, so that's encouraging (to me) to see they're starting to become aware of the eye-opening Wwoof program (and couchsurfing, etc). A pair of Chinese girls are scheduled to partake in August. It's a drop in the bucket, but hopefully a trend of more young Chinese venturing out to interact with other nationalities around the world - on more than just a tourist-group level.

Don't get too hopeful or optimistic.

That's four of 1,300,000,000 PRChinese sheeple. Only a freak of nature country produces that kind of a population number, so we'd have to put India into the freak of nature country category too. The US is third at only 315,000,000. Indonesia is fourth at only 275,000,000.

Better to use ill gotten gains to buy a property in Oz or Canada, the USA, the UK, as the CCP types have been doing for years now. At least they'll have a MOE when the crash comes in the PRC, which is their whole idea. You get enuff beers into a CCP and he'll tell you the CCP is going the same way as the CCCP. And they all know it.

Your heart is in the right place, and you are right to quote the professor - a billion PRChinese sheeple know nothing of the world - nothing.

The other 300,000,000 know only enuff to know they need an MOE. More than one PRChinese asked me if I'd sponsor them in the USA when the revolt comes because the CCP will hunt down every last one to kill 'em all. I'd thought the CCP would be happy to see the "troublemakers" get out of the PRC when the crackdown comes against the revolt, but I was assured the CCP will track down and kill every last one of 'em.

It's only getting more grim, not even possibly better.

[Scott]

Off-topic posts and replies removed.

[kikoman]

I don't think anything will happen as China has bided its time for millennia - they're not about to go all warships and missiles on Tokyo . . .

Different. Attrition. Striking only where and when they know they can do so with minimal blowback.

Perhaps we don't like the Chinese (as in PRC leadership and their henchmen) but it would be unwise just to show what big muscles we have

Agreed. They'd have to start something serious first such as follow through on their original threat to take sole ownership of the South China Sea fishing rights, or invade and take one or more of The Philippine Islands which they claim, or something like that.

Then their hardware would end up on the bottom of the ocean.

Same with N. Korea. They'd actually have to start firing missiles at S. Korea or Japan, or as they threatened, launch a nuke at Hawaii. Then they might just turn into a glass parking lot.

I don't think either has the guts stupidity to try any of that.

You seem to forget the Korean War, where a 10 rate Chinese peoples Army fought the United Nations to a stale mate, They had a Peoples Army that was not tied to the roadway by heavy weapons and simply outflanked UN forces, they had neither command of the sky or the sea. They simply worn down UN defenses by the shear number of causalities they were willing to take. For three bloody years they fought the United Nations and the United States to a stand still, they were responsible for the longest and most disorganized retreat in the history of US land wars.General MacArthur also thought the way you do and was proven wrong and lost his job over it.

China is not a power to underestimate, or to appease, they have great territorial ambitions, and have disputed territories with most countries in Asia, which offers the US a broad range of allies.

Cheers:

[kikoman]

Japan jets scrambled after Chinese plane flies by disputed Island on Wednesday.

Cheers:

[Sayonarax]

Bunch of war mongers. I think the world needs to sit down and draw up a god damn plan that doesn't evolve blasting the crap out of each other for some dirt. Money money, all its good for is wiping your arse.

[OldChinaHam]

Publicus: "Yes, when the CCP's economy and financial system goes bust, this year or next year, Japan and others won't have to worry about the CCP-PRC military."

I assume you are being ironic here.

Either way, very good posts and glad you enjoy following China events too.

My feeling is that it is still the China-Taiwan situation which puts us most at risk of armed conflict involving China,

Not Japan, and Not Korea.

Many feel that if China becomes unstable due to social unrest, due to economic hard times, the leadership may try to divert attention by creating havoc with Taiwan.

They do this from time to time.

Add to this that I do not believe there are enough resources in the world to have China continue to rise the way it must to avoid social instability, and then India rise simultaneously, and also Africa which will be at a population of about 2 billion in 20 years.

Right now China is planning to exploit African land to produce food that China cannot produce itself domestically.

But this cannot last because there are food shortages in Africa right now, and likely to get worse as Africa's population continues to grow.

Interesting times are going to get more interesting, no doubt.

Glad I am alive to see it.

[NeverSure]

I don't think anything will happen as China has bided its time for millennia - they're not about to go all warships and missiles on Tokyo . . .

Different. Attrition. Striking only where and when they know they can do so with minimal blowback.

Perhaps we don't like the Chinese (as in PRC leadership and their henchmen) but it would be unwise just to show what big muscles we have

Agreed. They'd have to start something serious first such as follow through on their original threat to take sole ownership of the South China Sea fishing rights, or invade and take one or more of The Philippine Islands which they claim, or something like that.

Then their hardware would end up on the bottom of the ocean.

Same with N. Korea. They'd actually have to start firing missiles at S. Korea or Japan, or as they threatened, launch a nuke at Hawaii. Then they might just turn into a glass parking lot.

I don't think either has the guts stupidity to try any of that.

You seem to forget the Korean War, where a 10 rate Chinese peoples Army fought the United Nations to a stale mate, They had a Peoples Army that was not tied to the roadway by heavy weapons and simply outflanked UN forces, they had neither command of the sky or the sea. They simply worn down UN defenses by the shear number of causalities they were willing to take. For three bloody years they fought the United Nations and the United States to a stand still, they were responsible for the longest and most disorganized retreat in the history of US land wars.General MacArthur also thought the way you do and was proven wrong and lost his job over it.

China is not a power to underestimate, or to appease, they have great territorial ambitions, and have disputed territories with most countries in Asia, which offers the US a broad range of allies.

Cheers:

Now, please re-read the context in which I wrote. It would be an air and sea battle, or series of them. China trying to take the South China Sea or one or some of the Islands it claims. Or I mentioned N Korea actually launching a nuke.

China can't win an air and sea battle, and N. Korea gets flattened with never an allied troop on the ground if it launches a nuke.

[boomerangutang]

Bunch of war mongers. I think the world needs to sit down and draw up a god dam_n plan that doesn't evolve blasting the crap out of each other for some dirt. Money money, all its good for is wiping your arse.

....money can buy love (or a semblance thereof) also, but that's another topic.

It's not easy to predict how the shit will hit the fan as regards China and the countries it borders and/or is antagonistic with. East Asia is a part of the world where two bordering countries who speak the same language and purportedly want to merge (Koreas) can't even agree on how to sit at a table an discuss things. I think we all agree that push will come to shove with China involved, but a list of what will trigger it, could be as long as my arm, in #8 font. Interesting times, and it's interesting to speculate, though. I think Thailand will be out of the line of fire, but even that's not 100% sure, as it's still in the weird anything-can-go-pear-shaped region of Asia.

[Sing_Sling]

Well, you oversimplify the issue in your first point - if you live in a 'with us or against us' world then you are the loser in this while game because there shades of gray and only an imbecile accepts everything carte blanche

Your second point here (my apologies that I cut the sentences between the two) is so very spot on. Obstinate is a very, very apt description. Very apt.

I've been in China possibly 20 times on business and my brother and his wife both worked for embassies in Beijing . . . and though it can be quite an interesting place . . . in the end you just want to leave.

You're talking about the CCP-PRC, not the United States. It's Beijing and the PRChinese who live in the 'with us or against us' world.

Bush and the neocons are gone forever from power in Washington - they completely discredited themselves in their cynical overreaction to 9/11 and by their own concomitant 'with us or against us' attitudes. Those times are forever gone from Washington.

Sadly it isn't over in the US, is it . . . yes, the bad old days of 'Freedom Fries' and 'Old Europe' and the like have passed from an overt to a style that still exists quite nicely in a large swathe of a population and political circles. You don't eradicate the problem simply by changing a few people at the top.

I wish it were the case of 'gone forever' but it isn't.

The PRC is the same . . . but then they are encircled almost completely by 'enemies', whereas the US isn't, never has been - an advantage of almost being a continent and bordered by only two countries (one of them Canada, eh!)

The PRC can direct the populace back to the bad old times when they were invaded, occupied etc . . .

The PRC has more of a cause celebre in this game whereas the US now has the bad Muslims who have replaced the awful Communists, the horrible Nazis and the despicable Japanese as their enemy du jour.

I don't believe the US is the 'victim' in all of this, and portraying it as such is simply silly

Unless you see it this way:

[SinglePot]

Publicus: "Yes, when the CCP's economy and financial system goes bust, this year or next year, Japan and others won't have to worry about the CCP-PRC military."

I assume you are being ironic here.

Either way, very good posts and glad you enjoy following China events too.

My feeling is that it is still the China-Taiwan situation which puts us most at risk of armed conflict involving China,

Not Japan, and Not Korea.

Many feel that if China becomes unstable due to social unrest, due to economic hard times, the leadership may try to divert attention by creating havoc with Taiwan.

They do this from time to time.

Add to this that I do not believe there are enough resources in the world to have China continue to rise the way it must to avoid social instability, and then India rise simultaneously, and also Africa which will be at a population of about 2 billion in 20 years.

Right now China is planning to exploit African land to produce food that China cannot produce itself domestically.

But this cannot last because there are food shortages in Africa right now, and likely to get worse as Africa's population continues to grow.

Interesting times are going to get more interesting, no doubt.

Glad I am alive to see it.

Very interesting post IMO.

Putting the China thing into the bigger picture.

I saw a few reports about 6 months ago covering the Chinese leadership visit to an African country. Can't remember which country it was.

The Chinese leaders were there not to offer support to a developing nation as the media reports were making out. China were there because it is in their long term interest.

[SinglePot]

@ NeverSure

"China can't win an air and sea battle..."

I'm not sure this is correct.

I know you are confident about US military capability but what are the Chinese doing?

As I have said before, China will have a fairly good understanding of US capability, and they are not sitting around smoking opium and playing mahjong.

[SinglePot]

@ SingSling

China are on the warpath.

Go and live there and get a proper understanding about the mentality which you can't get from media reports.

Hi Ho Tonto.