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[Publicus]

China and Party Will Collapse by 2016

We can only hope/wish/pray that this doesn't happen

The world economy didn't collapse or even feel more than a ripple when the USSR collapsed in 1991.

The West in particular has attempted to integrate the CCP--PRC into the global economy. This primarily has been an effort to swipe immediate profits from the PRC's (used to be) cheap labor and to try to give the CCP reasons not to be belligerent. The former has been highly successful and has now reached its end point. The latter has been predictably ineffective.

So the global economy will feel an impact from the collapse of the CCP-PRC. Global political stability will suffer. Regional political and security stability will suffer most, as will regional economies. The impending collapse of the failed CCP-PRC model will have only temporary effects.

The size and impact of the economy of the CCP-PRC is anyway overstated by the CCP's own consistently lying, exaggerated data put out annually over the past 30 years. At this point, it's calculated that the economy of the CCP-PRC is USD $1 trillion less than Beijing claims it to be. This places it behind Japan, not ahead of it, and ever more distant from that of the United States.

Chaos is coming but we'll survive it very well and much to our benefit over the long term as the world is further freed from another absurd command economy and political dictatorship of censoring tyrants. Whatever succeeds the present CCP-PRC will, for better and for worse, be temporary.

After the collapse we'll be better situated to reshape the new China, something we've well known will occur for more than a decade and are well prepared to do.

Actual Chinese GDP $1 Trillion Less Than Thought to Be

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/247657-actual-chinese-gdp-1-trillion-less-than-thought-to-be/

China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is more than $1 trillion less than published because baseline Chinese economic data on housing is manipulated and unreliable, says Christopher Balding, a professor at China’s HSBC School of Business in Shenzhen.

Using data on consumer price inflation published by the National Bureau of Statistics China (NBSC) data, Balding came to his conclusion while attempting to reconcile the official data to third party data.

“The primary point of the paper is not simply to reveal more discrepancies in the Chinese economic data, which it does, but also to measure the impact of these fraudulent statistics on real economic activity,” Balding said on his website, Balding’s World.

Edited August 19, 2013 by Publicus

[Credo]

I wonder what will precipitate the collapse. Social upheaval or economic upheaval, or both?

[boomerangutang]

China and Party Will Collapse by 2016

We can only hope/wish/pray that this doesn't happen

Granted, with such a large population, there will be suffering - no matter what happens - even if the status quo is maintained for several years. It's a matter of degrees, and that's just for the 1/5 of the world's population who reside within the country (and can't take a bundle of money and flee to a freer country). Outside of China, there won't be major reverberations for most of us, though again, it's predicated on what fingers a person has in the economic pie.

To me, finances are secondary. More important are environmental and humanitarian consequences. Personally, I don't give a gnat's ass if all the millionaires in China are down in the dumps next week - except to the degree it may cause harm to regular people who will become unemployed. A slowdown in Chinese plastic production will affect the environment in several positive ways, not least is less noxious fumes, but perhaps also less plastic finding its way to the Great Pacific Trash Vortex. Socio-politically, the biggest change we might see, if China implodes, is Tibet reverting back to the Tibetans.

[Credo]

I just don't see China going gently into the night, so to speak.

When those millionaires hit the skids, then the thousands of people they employ will be unemployed and in China that's a lot of people who will be hungry.

The ones who are likely to be unscathed are those who missed the gravy train in the first place (and the farmers who will be able to eat, at least).

[Sing_Sling]

China and Party Will Collapse by 2016

We can only hope/wish/pray that this doesn't happen

The world economy didn't collapse or even feel more than a ripple when the USSR collapsed in 1991.

.

Who's talking about hoping it doesn't happen for economic reasons . . . a one-track mind is seldom a good thing, mate.

Everyone else seems to understand why.

[boomerangutang]

Already, some rich Chinese are quietly moving away. Maybe I'm imagining things (about Chinese encroachment), but there are a whole lot of fancy houses getting built in Tachilek, the small border city, just north of Thailand's northernmost town of Mae Sai. Similarly, thousands of rai surrounding Chiang Rai have been bought in the past 20 months. It's like a 1 km wide circle around the city, all red clay from cat work and many thousands of truckloads of fill. In a couple years, it will be 90% housing blocks ad 10% malls/shops. Again, it's just assumptions on my part, but a friend who plays a lot of golf says some of his rich Chinese golfing buddies are among those - gobbling up vast parcels as if there's no tomorrow. I predict Chiang Rai will double in size in the next 5 years. And that's just one relatively small city, within just one of China's neighboring countries.

[Publicus]

I wonder what will precipitate the collapse. Social upheaval or economic upheaval, or both?

That's a tough call.

I tend to go with experts who by 2004 had begun hollering about the U.S. 2008 subprime disaster in the making, financiers such as Jim Chanos and Edward Chancellor. Each notes several things that say the economy or the financial system will go bust first, which will then produce social unrest to complete the disaster.

The banks already have begun large layoffs because they don't have any money. (The unemployed don't have social security benefits). The banks don't have money because the real estate developers can't sell their overpriced properties, which means the developers can't repay their bank loans.

Banks can't borrow to get the money they need because interbank lending has dried up as a result of cash shortages - ATM's mysteriously shut down for several hours on a given day, ostensibly for "technical reasons" but the banks don't have the cash to dispense.

The two biggest bubbles, property and bank credit, can burst at any time. When the property bubble bursts the PRChinese will lose their property holdings and investments. The bank credit bubble can also burst at any time, wiping out your savings. Either way the People of the People's Republic are screwed. One likely will precede the other but both will crash in short order of each other.

The People of the People's Republic will go after the CCP with meat axes. The CCP's internal security apparatus is bigger than the 2.3 million army, however, the army also will be used. I don't doubt the loyalty of the internal security goons. The army, however, remains an assortment of regional warlords with soldiers who are primarily conscripts.

The CCP created its huge and well equipped paramilitary People's Armed Police after the army strongly objected to Deng Xiao Peng for using it to kill unarmed PRChinese civilians in Tianamen Square in 1989, which provides some good idea of how messy everything will get for a while.

The following Baron's Financial Weekly piece focuses on the property and bank credit bubbles, respectively. It's an encompassing overview which also provides specifics of the current run up to the end game. It's not a quick read but it's like a pre-air crash investigation of a crash in process.

Falling Star

The Chinese economy is slowing and is likely to slow a lot more. Get ready for a hard landing.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903857104577467200405790354.html#articleTabs_article%3D3

[boomerangutang]

Yes, I recall, when watching the coverage of the Tianamin protest - how no regional military troops would follow orders to use force against their brethren occupying (peacefully) the Square. So, the iron-fisted politburo called in troops from far away, and that's when the tanks showed up, and blood got spilled on sidewalks, and elsewhere.

[Publicus]

With the world now clear that the CCP-PRC economy and entire financial system are going to crash, and that the CCP may lose its iron grip on power, the CCP's rhetoric has become very tough and firm.

The Global Times, the militant voice of the CCP, is evoking the disorder that accompanied the collapse of the Soviet Union in efforts to shore up the CCP's standing ahead of the subsequent political showdown that will occur after the whole of the economy crashes anytime soon.

The CCP is trying to frighten its sheeple into not revolting against it after the whole CCP-PRC system collapses into a rubble.

As the internet comments from within the PRC show in the article below, many People of the People's Republic are ready to experience upheaval rather than suffer in silence under the current failed system.

Economists the world over say they can't predict when the crash will occur, but they agree the crash is coming soon - perhaps as early as next year. Some say that, if the trigger is big enough, such as the property bubble bursting, the CCP's economy could crash by the end of this year.

Hence the escalating rhetoric warning the People of the People's Republic not to rebel en masse against the fundamentally flawed rule of the CCP.

Regime Falls Only With ‘Battles and Bloodshed,’ Says Mouthpiece

A regime mouthpiece commentary said on Monday that the Chinese Communist Party’s collapse will only bring “battles and bloodshed,” a sentiment immediately rebutted by Chinese netizens who grew angry over the report.

The editorial from the Global Times, a state-run news agency that plays to nationalist sentiments, cites Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 as an indicator of what could happen to China, saying that bordering nations saw “immense suffering at the beginning of the Soviet collapse.” It went on to state that a “couple of years’ chaos” would be an unfair price to pay for national prosperity, while dismissing the value of democratization

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/232932-regime-falls-only-with-battles-and-bloodshed-says-mouthpiece/

Edited August 22, 2013 by Publicus

[mania]

With the world now clear that the CCP-PRC economy and entire financial system are going to crash

crystal ball available for parties?

[Publicus]

With the world now clear that the CCP-PRC economy and entire financial system are going to crash

crystal ball available for parties?

Nope, just a whole lotta analysis contained in data, charts and graphs from various highly respected sources over a significant period of time.

I see you missed it so I'll present the real data and its analysis again.

17 Reasons Why Experts Are Convinced China's Economy Is Doomed

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/scary-china-charts-2013-7?op=1#ixzz2ZF3mUQVH

[boomerangutang]

One of my favorite interviews was when Dr. Henry Kissinger was asked, right after the fall of the Berlin Wall, what would ensue for the USSR. Kissinger said something to the effect; "the satelite states in East Europe might shed the mantle of communism, but it's not possible that the USSR will stop being communism."

At that time, he was lauded as one of the top experts in the world on int'l affairs. He charged $600/hour consutation fees. Yet he was dead wrong in how he interpreted the situation at that time. The USSR dropped the yoke of communism soon after that interview, and became the Federation of Russian States.

[Publicus]

One of my favorite interviews was when Dr. Henry Kissinger was asked, right after the fall of the Berlin Wall, what would ensue for the USSR. Kissinger said something to the effect; "the satelite states in East Europe might shed the mantle of communism, but it's not possible that the USSR will stop being communism."

At that time, he was lauded as one of the top experts in the world on int'l affairs. He charged $600/hour consutation fees. Yet he was dead wrong in how he interpreted the situation at that time. The USSR dropped the yoke of communism soon after that interview, and became the Federation of Russian States.

Yeah, and Kissinger hasn't been right on the CCP-PRC since Mao died, which goes back to 1976.

Kissinger thinks of China almost only in pre-20th century terms. Kissinger was highly focused on the former USSR but it's turned out Brezinski knew the USSR better than Kissinger did, and that Brezinski knows the contemporary CCP-PRC far better than Kissinger. Elizabeth Economy over at the Council on Foreign Relations knows the CCP-PRC as well as anybody, if not better.

Hell, I could consult more accurately on the CCP-PRC than Dr K for only 60 bucks an hour .

[mania]

Nope, just a whole lotta analysis contained in data, charts and graphs

Opinions do not facts make

What you present are others opinions which does not =

With the world now clear that the CCP-PRC economy and entire financial system are going to crash

[Publicus]

Nope, just a whole lotta analysis contained in data, charts and graphs

Opinions do not facts make

What you present are others opinions which does not =

With the world now clear that the CCP-PRC economy and entire financial system are going to crash

Have you been reading this thread or are you just now jumping in to it?

The posts I've made to this thread, and to related other threads, constitute a body of evidence and expert analysis over a significant period of time.

I don't see any argument from you that counters my presentations to this thread and thread topic.

To say, well, that's your opinion and to leave it at that is a pathetic and shallow approach to dealing with a body of analysis and data which are the results of years - decades - of work by experts.

Yes, pathetic. If you want respect, you yourself are going to have to show some.

Presently you are a strong candidate for the ignore function.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Publicus

[mania]

Have you been reading this thread or are you just now jumping in to it?

Yes just jumped in at post #3

1st page

It is just that many here get tired of the constant racism/sensationalism that

is hefted onto threads with sensational statements like

"With the world now clear that the CCP-PRC economy and entire financial system are going to crash"

It is not based in reality & saying it is backed by facts when it is backed by opinions only is

just more of the same spin.

Even then folks who take delight in the hope that such a thing should someday occur.....Should take heed if they

are viewing from a debtor nation & remember who the lenders were.

Because while they may take delight in the thought of certain downfalls

They realize not that their own downfall could come first as the lenders liquidate

But really other than relishing opinions I would not get your hopes up.

Edited August 23, 2013 by mania

[Scott]

Stick to the topic. Further posts that are nothing more than criticism of another poster will be deleted.

[Publicus]

Have you been reading this thread or are you just now jumping in to it?

Yes just jumped in at post #3

1st page

It is just that many here get tired of the constant racism/sensationalism that

is hefted onto threads with sensational statements like

"With the world now clear that the CCP-PRC economy and entire financial system are going to crash"

It is not based in reality & saying it is backed by facts when it is backed by opinions only is

just more of the same spin.

Even then folks who take delight in the hope that such a thing should someday occur.....Should take heed if they

are viewing from a debtor nation & remember who the lenders were.

Because while they may take delight in the thought of certain downfalls

They realize not that their own downfall could come first as the lenders liquidate

But really other than relishing opinions I would not get your hopes up.

Predicating your pov on racism is unacceptable.

I've put you on ignore.

[Sing_Sling]

 

Have you been reading this thread or are you just now jumping in to it?

Yes just jumped in at post #3

1st page

It is just that many here get tired of the constant racism/sensationalism that

is hefted onto threads with sensational statements like

"With the world now clear that the CCP-PRC economy and entire financial system are going to crash"

It is not based in reality & saying it is backed by facts when it is backed by opinions only is

just more of the same spin.

Even then folks who take delight in the hope that such a thing should someday occur.....Should take heed if they

are viewing from a debtor nation & remember who the lenders were.

Because while they may take delight in the thought of certain downfalls

They realize not that their own downfall could come first as the lenders liquidate

But really other than relishing opinions I would not get your hopes up.

Predicating your pov on racism is unacceptable.

I've put you on ignore.

 

Umm, Publicus, you may not wish to play the 'offended, woe is me' party too strongly as there is a certain post of yours that would support exactly what mania is referring to.

I think the Chinese can quite rightly point to the US and hold up a mirror while asking about hypocrisy. (and that includes currency manipulation)

While there is no doubt that it is many times better to live under a US dominance, if there were a third choice I doubt the outcome would be the same

[boomerangutang]

Opinions/predictions are part and parcel of taking an interest in international affairs. There are those, like Publicus, who take note of a variety of learned discussions on these topics. I appreciate him posting links here. The people who make such predictions - have likely researched in-depth. Their opinions are not a popularity thing, nor should what they say be self-censored by what may offend one or another group of people. In a phrase, it's "tell it like it is" or "tell it like I see it."

Predictions have bearing on all facets of peoples' existence. For example, if there's a prediction of heavy snowfall, we make adjustments to the strength of a roof we're building, or the course we might take while driving a road.

Predicting China's economy will tank is not racist. It may or may not happen. However, such news can compel some folks to make adjustments, and therefore weather the storm better than if they didn't hear the news, or chose to ignore it. Plus, it can be interesting to just hear others' opinions.

I have a particular interest in whether China's economy will implode, because of how that might affect China's military occupation of Tibet. These are interesting times.

------------------------------------------

reason for edit: the quote functions don't work well

Edited August 23, 2013 by boomerangutang

[SinglePot]

It seems like a bit of a stretch to expect the Chinese Communist Party to successfully manage the world's second largest economy on a long term basis. Especially given the fact that that it is an emerging economy and not mature or established.

Would You let the men in Beijing run Your multitrillion dollar corporation?

Seems to me they neither have the experience or the credentials.

[Publicus]

It seems like a bit of a stretch to expect the Chinese Communist Party to successfully manage the world's second largest economy on a long term basis. Especially given the fact that that it is an emerging economy and not mature or established.

Would You let the men in Beijing run Your multitrillion dollar corporation?

Seems to me they neither have the experience or the credentials.

I would add two things.

One is that the whole idea of organizing their political economy is fundamentally wrong. No government has succeeded in its aims by combining dictatorship with a command economy.

The other is the first and foremost factor concerning the CCP. The CCP is above all else corrupt, and it is massively and thoroughly corrupt. The "CCP" in reality means the "Chinese Corruption Party." Everything is completely corrupt and shamelessly so. Given the size of the developing population of the CCP-PRC and economy, the amount of money circulating in the system is huge, well beyond that of any other developing country.

After a while, so many officials stealing a billion here and a billion there adds up to real money disappearing.

No one person or party can deal with the endemic and profound corruption that defines the system. The system is corruption; corruption is the system.

The huge mess created by having a fundamentally flawed system of political economy coupled with a culture of massive and endemic corruption is the cancer that has put the patient in the final stages of its life. This patient will die due to complications of several diseases, these two being first and foremost.

[boomerangutang]

It seems like a bit of a stretch to expect the Chinese Communist Party to successfully manage the world's second largest economy on a long term basis. Especially given the fact that that it is an emerging economy and not mature or established.

Would You let the men in Beijing run Your multitrillion dollar corporation?

Seems to me they neither have the experience or the credentials.

I wouldn't want the 'men in Beijing' watching my dog, while I went to the store to get supplies.

Seriously though, it's up to the Chinese people to try to clean their own house. They've been through multiple attempts before. Just in the 20th Century, there were more atrocities committed by Chinese upon Chinese, than by committed by the Japanese they fought two wars with. They've got some major house-fixing to do, and there will be a lot of suffering during that process. Not least is the suffering of the environment and other species (those which are still hanging in there).

[mania]

Seriously though, it's up to the Chinese people to try to clean their own house.

You can replace "Chinese" with quite a few nationalities these days as so many houses

need cleaning by its inhabitants/citizens

What is always hard to swallow though, are the rocks thrown by those in glass houses.

[Publicus]

These are but some of the remarks published in the official CCP-PRC news agency Xinhua which indicate the frantic state of mind of the CCP hierarchy in Beijing and throughout the PRChina.

It's a lashing out at the winner by the loser as it's become clear that the loser and their system is done, finished, an abject failure, and is on the verge of a complete breakdown. That it is known the end has come and it is only a matter of time.

Chinese State Propaganda Compares China Collapse to Soviet Union

State run Xinhua news agency published an article on August 1 by Wang Xiaoshi, warning that China would be in miserable condition if “turmoil” ever takes place.

“Those angels, mentors and well known people who have malicious motives, if you want to provoke turmoil in China by controlling public opinion, you’ll have to step over my body,” the author, Wang Xiaoshi, wrote towards the end of the diatribe.

Many public intellectuals were “slandering the current socialist system,” the article said, while promoting the subversive ideas of capitalism and constitutional government through social media.

“Coldly look at you Western world’s slaves, you cheat people on the internet every day, you deceive Chinese people and allow others to bully China, making China poor and its military weak.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/223984-chinese-state-propaganda-compares-china-collapse-to-soviet-union/

[Publicus]

New CCP-PRC president Xi Jinping is implementing Maoist "Red" policies which have old line CCP conservatives elated while the liberal reform faction of the CCP is deeply disappointed and dejected.

The discriminatory targeting of foreign business described and discussed in the article below is described as being reminiscent of the xenophobia predicated campaigns of Mao’s era.

According to CCP-PRC expert Gordon Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China,

Xi’s Maoist-Marxist campaigns are altering the balance of power inside the Party. Now the leftists feel very excited and elated, while the liberals feel very discouraged and discontented, said Shanghai Normal University’s Xiao Gongqin, to the New York Times this month, commenting on Xi’s regressive campaigns. The ramifications are very serious, because this seriously hurts the broad middle class and moderate reformers—entrepreneurs and intellectuals.

Chang further notes that

As a consequence of these reactionary developments, hopes for reform in China, generated by the elevation of the new leadership team of Xi and Li Keqiang, have begun to fade in recent months. There is a growing appreciation of the notion that fundamental change cannot proceed in an atmosphere where liberal values are under attack, as they are in Document No. 9, which lists as perils such notions as constitutionalism, freedom of the press, universal values, and democracy. Moreover, as more and more observers believe, structural economic reform will never proceed without political reform to remove the opposition of entrenched interests, sometimes called the “Iron Quadrangle” of state enterprises, the security apparatus, the military, and Party reactionaries.

The CCP-PRC is regressing in time and in its policies. It is returning to the Mao era of extremism and the suppression and repression of dissent and disagreement. Most significant, Xi is exhibiting Mao's xenophobia without any reservation or hesitation.

'You Must Confess': China's Red Campaign Against Multinationals

On Wednesday, Reuters reported that in late July the powerful National Development and Reform Commission brought together representatives from about 30 foreign companies—including GE, Microsoft MSFT, IBM, Intel, INTC and Qualcomm —and tried to force them to write confessions of violations of China’s anti-monopoly law.

Xi Jinping has been conducting a series of Maoist-inspired “rectification” and “mass line” campaigns since he became China’s leader last November, and Marx is enjoying a Beijing-sponsored revival at the moment.

China, unfortunately, is beginning to resemble the neighboring state run by the Kim family, and as a consequence Chinese netizens have started to call their own country “West Korea.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/08/25/you-must-confess-chinas-red-campaign-against-multinationals/?utm_source=followingdaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20130826

[Publicus]

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

One could also say that two can play this game.

While Beijing repeatedly conducts clandestine cyber espionage and theft, this serious and extensive incident shows that the CCP-PRC is as vulnerable to cyber attacks as any other country is.

Service in the CCP-PRC was in fact completely out in most areas, from Beijing and Shanghai in the North to Fushow and Guangzhou in the South to the hugely populated Chongqing and Chengdu metro areas to the Central West.

There were in fact two attacks. The second attack was massive and proved devastating. The second attack, two hours Sunday night after the first one, caused a complete loss of service for up to 18 hours in most areas, a much more extensive and serious situation than the reports specifically say.

China's Internet hit by biggest cyberattack in its history

Were you trying to access a .cn Internet address over the weekend? Are you still hitting refresh?

Internet users in China were met with sluggish response times early Sunday as the country's domain extension came under a "denial of service" attack.

The attack was the largest of its kind ever in China, according to the China Internet Network Information Center, a state agency that manages the .cn country domain.

The double-barreled attacks took place at around 2 a.m. Sunday, and then again at 4 a.m. The second attack was "long-lasting and large-scale," according to state media, which said that service was slowly being restored.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/26/technology/china-cyberattacks/index.html

Edited August 29, 2013 by Publicus