Thai Baht slides further against US$

[carib102]

4th year in BKK. and NOT an expert in currency

Assuming you are sending money back to the U.S.A- isn't better for the baht to decline.

Every month I send $1,000 USD home or app. 32,000 baht . minus bank fees.

If the Baht falls to 20 to 1 then my $1,000 USD would only cost me 20,000 Baht. A savings of 12,000 baht

Does a falling baht hurt those "in-country"?

Comments?

Sorry, you've got it back-to-front.

If the baht strengthens, you get your dollars for fewer baht, if it declines against the dollar then you need more baht to buy your thousand dollars.

Assuming you're being paid in baht, then the current weaker baht will increase the cost (in baht) of your monthly transfer, or reduce the number of dollars you get for a fixed number of baht.

Again, not business minded.

But could give me an example?

Right now 32 to 1 Baht to USD 32000 baht = 1,000USD

Therefor, would 20 to 1 not translate to 20,000 baht= 1,000USD

Thanks for the help!

The Baht cannot 'fall' to a higher value! The Baht has never been 20 to one Dollar in living memory. Traditionally is was 25-30 to one Dollar for decades and was linked to the value of the U.S. Dollar until 1997 when the real estate bubble burst and the Baht could no longer be tied to the Dollar and was floated. The value got as low 60 Baht to one Dollar. Earlier this year, the value of the Baht got to as strong as 28.6 Baht to the Dollar. Currently the trend is for a weaker Baht and you will need more Baht to buy a dollar now compared to two weeks ago.

Your math above is correct and it the Baht was one Baht to one Dollar, 1000 Baht would buy 1000 Dollars. The falling (declining value of) Baht hurts those who depend on the Baht for their paycheck because fuel is imported and higher costs for fuel translates to higher costs for, transportation and energy which translates to higher costs for production and for everything that is transported. Electricity prices will rise because some of it is generated with imported oil. The price of imported goods will also rise. I don't understand why you are having problems with understanding. Ricardo gave a perfectly understandable answer to your question. Are you a blonde by any chance?

It isn't a straight 1:1 ratio or if this then that equation though. Yes a weaker baht means higher fuel costs, but since oil is denominated in USD a stronger dollar usually translates to lower oil prices. So you might have a weaker baht, but still have imported fuel costs contained due to lower oil prices from a strong USD.

[MaxYakov]

Just did a USD wire transfer to Bangkok Bank and it converted at around ฿31.4.

Edited August 23, 2013 by MaxYakov

[maccaroni man]

I agree there is no exact science in filling the Thai baht IMO 34 to the green back will be its low and 28 will be seen again during the time left in Obamas term.

[bigdod]

I like 50 Bt to the pound coz it makes it nice & easy to count....

[dighambara]

HOORAY...!!! Thai Economists have long stated that for a strong economy, the Thai Baht should be around 40 to $1.

In the 60's, when supported by US Gold, it was 20 to $1. Following the Soros crash of 97, it was 52 to $1. By 2000 the ratio was 44 to $1.

A decade ago it was steady at 40 to $1 and Thai rice sold everywhere. Now at 32 to $1,Thai Rice is expensive.

Increasing the ratio ensures that Thailand will prosper and that foreigners visiting Thailand will spend well.

[hawker9000]

HOORAY...!!! Thai Economists have long stated that for a strong economy, the Thai Baht should be around 40 to $1.

In the 60's, when supported by US Gold, it was 20 to $1. Following the Soros crash of 97, it was 52 to $1. By 2000 the ratio was 44 to $1.

A decade ago it was steady at 40 to $1 and Thai rice sold everywhere. Now at 32 to $1,Thai Rice is expensive.

Increasing the ratio ensures that Thailand will prosper and that foreigners visiting Thailand will spend well.

Not sure the effect on rice trading is the whole picture here. But for those just visiting, 40:1 certainly would be good news and probably a boost to tourism in the short run. 'Not sure it's going to happen, but many would consider it good news.

[thaibeachlovers]

I like 50 Bt to the pound coz it makes it nice & easy to count....

If it was 91 to the pound like back in '97, you wouldn't care if you had to use a calculator, LOL.

[boomerangutang]

Every year, for the past 40+ years (since I was old enough to comprehend such talk), I've had older guys look me intensely in the eyes (usually grabbing both my hands for added dramatic effect) and telling me: "The US dollar is going to be worthless, mark my words!" to which, I might respond in a plain voice; "Oh yea? When?" And twice as intensely they would say "any day now! Beware."

[bigdod]

I like 50 Bt to the pound coz it makes it nice & easy to count....

If it was 91 to the pound like back in '97, you wouldn't care if you had to use a calculator, LOL.

Hmmm....you make a strong case... hahaha

[mommysboy]

All the old blokes are happy now they can afford one or two more happy ending massages per month..

Yes. and you know something it is things like this that define a happy life and keep the old boys going strong.

Good luck to the yanks the dollar has been under the cosh vs baht for a very long time.

[hawker9000]

Every year, for the past 40+ years (since I was old enough to comprehend such talk), I've had older guys look me intensely in the eyes (usually grabbing both my hands for added dramatic effect) and telling me: "The US dollar is going to be worthless, mark my words!" to which, I might respond in a plain voice; "Oh yea? When?" And twice as intensely they would say "any day now! Beware."

'Maybe they were old enough to remember the great depression, or had parents who had talked a lot about it, although I think that worthless currency was more characteristic of Germany & maybe Austria, than the US, UK, or Canada. Paper money, esp. since countries went off the gold standard, really is nothing but a confidence game, with literally nothing but faith and trust in the government behind it. Some older folks who've been around long enough have simply "lost the faith". Maybe one day when you're old enough you'll reach the same conclusion.

[Gulfsailor]

Every year, for the past 40+ years (since I was old enough to comprehend such talk), I've had older guys look me intensely in the eyes (usually grabbing both my hands for added dramatic effect) and telling me: "The US dollar is going to be worthless, mark my words!" to which, I might respond in a plain voice; "Oh yea? When?" And twice as intensely they would say "any day now! Beware."

'Maybe they were old enough to remember the great depression, or had parents who had talked a lot about it, although I think that worthless currency was more characteristic of Germany & maybe Austria, than the US, UK, or Canada. Paper money, esp. since countries went off the gold standard, really is nothing but a confidence game, with literally nothing but faith and trust in the government behind it. Some older folks who've been around long enough have simply "lost the faith". Maybe one day when you're old enough you'll reach the same conclusion.

There is more than just gold to back a currency. Saying that reminds me of the people saying bitcoins are just as strong as the US dollar. It's all about faith. People forget though that a government backs a currency, and in the case of the US that government can deploy a massive war machine to protect its interests including its currency and monetary policy...

[hawker9000]

Good points, but bitcoins do have a couple of things, so far, in their favor. One, bitcoins can't be counterfeited - so far. Anyone can "mine" them themselves (well, theoretically), but that's actually part of the plan! Two, the algorithms strictly control their "minting", which is not subject to any country's political whim or monetary agenda. So long as they remain a "rare" thing, many will find it easier to have confidence in them than in wildly proliferating pieces of paper. Diamonds & gold do have industrial uses, but their main value comes from nothing other than their relative rarity. Wasn't De Beers' whole shtick just a matter of controlling the availability of diamonds, and keeping them "rare"?

That government thing cuts both ways. Yes, governments have war machines (and can sometimes deploy other powerful incentives besides) and can "back" (in some ways) their currencies and policies with them. But governments are ALSO political machines, operated by politicians, possibly the least trustworthy, least competent, and most self-serving creatures on the planet, something the average joe today understands better & better, and has arguably less confidence in than ever before. And besides, war machines don't seem to have much positive effect on inflation...

'Course this topic is about the baht vs the dollar specifically, and whose confidence has the most "dents" in it... All these things, baht, dollars, bitcoins, have their problems. It's masses of people making their choices, i.e., markets, that decide. But, again so far, even with the foothold bitcoins seem to have gained, I don't think bitcoins have had any measurable impact on national currencies, including the baht and the dollar. Some policitians are just afraid of losing their money monopolies some day.

[hawker9000]

I'm not much of a technician, but looking at the USD/THB 5-year chart, it looks like the baht has broken through (maybe I should say the USD has broken through?) year-old resistance levels at just under 32THB/USD. If so, it could be on a march toward or 35 or even 36. From a low of 28.65 back in April, that would be kind of impressive! Going back a little further, the trend sure looks like 2008-early 2009 (which topped out at 36) all over again. 'Think I'll hold off on any more baht buys for a little while & see what's happening. (LOL - 'figures. I buy some baht and the exchange rate improves significantly almost immediately afterward. You guys looking for further improvement should pay me to buy more baht - 'almost guarantees the rate will get better after each buy I make, whereas if I wait, it's sure to drop...)

What are the exchange booths there offering right now, anyway?

[yoshiwara]

It isn't a straight 1:1 ratio or if this then that equation though. Yes a weaker baht means higher fuel costs, but since oil is denominated in USD a stronger dollar usually translates to lower oil prices. So you might have a weaker baht, but still have imported fuel costs contained due to lower oil prices from a strong USD.

So, USD up and oil up. Got anything else up your sleeve?

[Thaiaddict01]

Every year, for the past 40+ years (since I was old enough to comprehend such talk), I've had older guys look me intensely in the eyes (usually grabbing both my hands for added dramatic effect) and telling me: "The US dollar is going to be worthless, mark my words!" to which, I might respond in a plain voice; "Oh yea? When?" And twice as intensely they would say "any day now! Beware."

sorry I don't understand this, is it because USD went off gold standard that's why everyone was telling you USD will be worthless for the last 40 years? but it never went that way because US is super power and USD is the main currency?

so Thailands GDP relies on 70% exports and 8% tourism the depreciation is good for the country then, how bad of depreciation do you guys think the Baht will be after they totally stop the QE? might be a good time to buy a condo and wire your money over!

[NeverSure]

I'm a magician. I can make the dollar rise against the baht all by myself.

All I have to do is convert a lot of dollars to baht and sure enough the next day the exchange rate will be more baht to the dollar.

[Thait Spot]

I'm a magician. I can make the dollar rise against the baht all by myself.

 

All I have to do is convert a lot of dollars to baht and sure enough the next day the exchange rate will be more baht to the dollar. 

Eh?!

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Moruya]

Meanwhile the SET plummets almost 2% on opening and the Baht is at 32.3 and falling

The Philippines Stock market dropped just under 6% this morning

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[lovetotravel]

Meanwhile the SET plummets almost 2% on opening and the Baht is at 32.3 and falling

The Philippines Stock market dropped just under 6% this morning

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Glad I didn't listen to all those who said the SET was a great investment last year.

And those who said the dollar was done for.

[OnMyWay2]

so Thailands GDP relies on 70% exports and 8% tourism the depreciation is good for the country then, how bad of depreciation do you guys think the Baht will be after they totally stop the QE? might be a good time to buy a condo and wire your money over!

Im looking to buy a condo and factoring in exchange rate of at least 38 but it could go to 40 next year as interest rates are set to rise in the US which will only make the dollar stronger..

Keep an eye on the bhat when the new US Fed chair is announced in a few weeks.

[Naam]

so Thailands GDP relies on 70% exports and 8% tourism the depreciation is good for the country then, how bad of depreciation do you guys think the Baht will be after they totally stop the QE? might be a good time to buy a condo and wire your money over!

Im looking to buy a condo and factoring in exchange rate of at least 38 but it could go to 40 next year as interest rates are set to rise in the US which will only make the dollar stronger..

Keep an eye on the bhat when the new US Fed chair is announced in a few weeks.

keep on dreaming, it's free of charge.

[giggles]

they cant keep plastering over the cracks as it becomes clear whats goin on. now where is george soros ?

[gk10002000]

ha. My first trip to Thailand was in 2004. Got about 44 Thai Baht for 1 USD at the time. When it got down to 30 Baht for 1 USD, Thailand really was getting expensive. Prices had gone up and the exchange rate had gone down. So net cost to me was a lot bigger percentage wise than any pay increase I had. I am flying there next week for a while and I welcome a better exchange rate.

[gk10002000]

I'm a magician. I can make the dollar rise against the baht all by myself.

All I have to do is convert a lot of dollars to baht and sure enough the next day the exchange rate will be more baht to the dollar.

Haha. Whether I buy or sell, the next day I usually see a better deal!

[Thaiaddict01]

some banks in the US you can open THB currency right? would be good idea to exchange to THB when it's at low point. But when you wire money over can you wire THB over? or do you have to convert to USD first?

Or how do you guys do it? to take advantage of THB when it's at the low points

[farang000999]

so Thailands GDP relies on 70% exports and 8% tourism the depreciation is good for the country then, how bad of depreciation do you guys think the Baht will be after they totally stop the QE? might be a good time to buy a condo and wire your money over!

Im looking to buy a condo and factoring in exchange rate of at least 38 but it could go to 40 next year as interest rates are set to rise in the US which will only make the dollar stronger..

Keep an eye on the bhat when the new US Fed chair is announced in a few weeks.

Sounds like you are just stringing words together and probably a big You Tube fan.

Please tell me which Fed candidates will have the biggest positive or negative influence on the USD-THB exchange rate.

[Naam]

some banks in the US you can open THB currency right? would be good idea to exchange to THB when it's at low point. But when you wire money over can you wire THB over? or do you have to convert to USD first?

Or how do you guys do it? to take advantage of THB when it's at the low points

yes you can transfer Baht but i fail to see any good idea buy buying Baht when low and transfer them. you might as well transfer USD to obtain a good exchange rate.

[LomSak27]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

You really need to chill out Waza, this has been going on for decades, and last I noticed Thailand was still here.

Just the usual, The squawks and whiners will be on soon, Lets Go!

[waza]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

You really need to chill out Waza, this has been going on for decades, and last I noticed Thailand was still here.

Just the usual, The squawks and whiners will be on soon, Lets Go!

You are in LALA land, Lom Sak27, never in the history of democratic Thailand has there ever been such a stable strong administration as we have now. But they are using that advantage to enrich themsleves to the point they are bankrupting the nation and putting Thailand in soveriegn debt for generations to come.

Edited September 16, 2013 by waza