Thai economists: Baht plunge 'a short-term issue'

[rubl]

nothing more amusing than reading the Thai bashers' know-it-all comments alt=tongue.png width=20 height=20>

Are you reading the same thread? There is no Thai bashing! They are bashing the incompetent trio that had the meeting. They don't represent all Thais.

Actually, they were elected by a majority vote to represent all Thais, weren't they? However, people shouldn't be concerned about who they represent, but rather who they are working for.

Do some searching. The Pheu Thai party won a majority of 265 seats out of 500, they didn't get a 50%+ part of the electorate voting for them, only 43% if I remember correctly with 35% Democrats. That gave them a mandate to (try to) form a government.

[Pattaya28]

"Brain-Storming"

[Thai at Heart]

But didn't kittirat want it weaker? Or doesn't he, or does he, who knows, who cares?

[yoshiwara]

The question to ask is whether the Thai baht movement stands out against other regional currencies or is just moving in tandem with sentiment against emerging market economies and currencies.

[IMA_FARANG]

Thai Baht/dollar and Baht/GBP exchange rates will probably re-adjust themselves to a more "honest" exchange rate soon.

They always do.

That doesn't mean 29 Baht to a Dollar ... nor does it mean 35 Baht to a dollar.

Neither one of those is long term sustainable (my opinion only).

My opinion is around 31 Baht to a dollar is "fair value" at least for a while.

The fact is, no matter how they "fudge" their growth figures China will not meet it's previous 7.5% annual growth figures.

I think they will be lucky to meet 7% annually next year at the best.

A slowdown in Chinese growth will affect all of the world, S.E. Asia (including Thailand) and Thailand's exports will be affected to.

So that means a slowdown in Thai economic "growth" at least for 6 months or so is a certainty..

Thailand's economic health is not divorced from the economic health of Asia, and all Asia is going to show slower growth.

Political events in Thailand do NOT make Thailand look like a healthy economy to invest in ..... and Chinese growth is going to slow down.

Those two things mean the short term future will be rocky for Thailand.

No matter what little sister and her "experts" say.

"Fair value" is what the markets think it is, and the markets always prevail, whatever politicians say.

Of course it also depends on the U.S. dollar and the GBP ..... and what the U.S. government and the U.K. do also.

If they act irrationally they can XXXX up the whole game by their actions themselves.

Edited August 25, 2013 by metisdead
Profanity

[Ricardo]

Should have made clear, weaker baht makes easier to dump rice and China's attention on jacking Japan and Philippines around w war ships should stand out as aggression meant only to piss someone off. World does not need that. Literally fighting, contesting a few fricken hunks of rock.... Why...because they can....

Don't forget that there may well be a lot of oil, under the 200-mile-limit seabed, surrounding those few rocks/islands.

Hence the need for the seabed to be 'owned' by the 'right' country, rather than the poorer ones much closer, who previously thought it belonged to them !

[Noistar]

nothing more amusing than reading the Thai bashers' know-it-all comments alt=tongue.png width=20 height=20>

Are you reading the same thread? There is no Thai bashing! They are bashing the incompetent trio that had the meeting. They don't represent all Thais.

i rephrase:

nothing more amusing than listening to some poor frustrated Farangs judging Thai politicians from their "no pot to piss in" perspective.

This is obviously coming from a happy contented Thai that's too big to fail.

A happy contented Thai who knows he cannot fail - he's Thai after all.

Must be galling to listen to people who have freedom of thought. Shame Thais can't give a considered perspective on their own government.

[humbug]

the thai baht to 34-35 to the dollar and the set to low at 1260 is what quite a few technical chartists are saying i hope its not that bad but were not far off if they are correct

[Naam]

i rephrase:

nothing more amusing than listening to some poor frustrated Farangs judging Thai politicians from their "no pot to piss in" perspective.

This is obviously coming from a happy contented Thai that's too big to fail.

A happy contented Thai who knows he cannot fail - he's Thai after all.

Must be galling to listen to people who have freedom of thought. Shame Thais can't give a considered perspective on their own government.

what part of my "amusing" looks, seen through your glasses, "galling"?

[bander]

nothing more amusing than reading the Thai bashers' know-it-all comments alt=tongue.png width=20 height=20>

Are you reading the same thread? There is no Thai bashing! They are bashing the incompetent trio that had the meeting. They don't represent all Thais.

Actually, they were elected by a majority vote to represent all Thais, weren't they? However, people shouldn't be concerned about who they represent, but rather who they are working for.

You are right, they where elected by a majority who each received a 500 bath note from the man in Dubai

[bander]

the thai baht to 34-35 to the dollar and the set to low at 1260 is what quite a few technical chartists are saying i hope its not that bad but were not far off if they are correct

Barton's Global Market Trends have almost the same figures: Thailand, today's SET close, slightly lower than the previous low, adding fuel for our target of 1,280. Thailand, Baht breaks out of long term double top. Target 35. Looks like troubled times ahead.

[metisdead]

An inflammatory post has been removed as well as posts containing overly derogatory comments toward Thais.

[Skywalker69]

I wonder which 'economists' came up with this snippet. The Thai Baht has depreciated for one reason - the laws of supply and demand, i.e. the market equilibrium.

Quantity of exports sold have gone down due to higher cost prices (although this does not necessarily mean lower revenue)*. The demand curve for exported rice has certainly gone down due to price of related goods (e.g. Indian, Vietnamese and American rice) and concerns over quality of product. The same could be argued against another main Thai export product, tourism.

* Anyone notice that, in the last paragraph, inflation is low yet one of the biggest concerns at the moment is rising cost of living? The Thai Ministry of Finance really needs to get real about this.

And high Baht rates over the last decade have made imports cheaper than they historically were. One common complaint with Thai mentality is that they give up easily, especially when countered by something that might look like hard work, so it's reasonable to assume that Thai businesses choose not to compete with these cheaper imports, especially if their quality is of reasonable standard.

This of course would suggest the Balance of Payments (total exports minus total imports) has gone down. The GNP (the next national income progression after GDP) would therefore be lower - so this might not be as "short term" as our Commerce Minister would have us believe... another "white lie" as per his predecessor Boonsong? On the other hand, this is not bad news for those here with assets in the West.

Maybe an economist that took his exam on Kentucky State University?