Why are stocks up if Thailand is not doing well?

[johnthompson]

This is what I have read in the news section

- Economic slowdown in the second quarter

- Public debt 80% of GDP

- Skyrocketing inflation

- Rice pledging scheme a failure

- Rubber farmers on strike

- Unstable politics

- Government debt in the trillions and they keep spending more

- Consumer confidence lowest in 9 months

- and of course rampant corruption

So why are the stocks at an all time high and is the baht still relatively expensive compared to 4 years ago. Why do they keep building condo's and where does that money come from and who's going to live in those condo's?

[swissie]

Despite of all the above: Thailand is still in a "partying-mood". And when the party is over, they will all try to exit the same door at the same time. It can take a long time to inflate a bubble, but only a fraction of the time to deflate a bubble.

The needle that will burst the bubble will be the realization, that Thailand has absolutely nothing to contribute to the word economy. A country where the ruling elite does everything to keep the masses stupid and ignorant and blocks every effort that would allow innovation and creative thinking. Stuck in the 17 th century, on purpose!

Cheers.

[sas_cars]

Well, the stocks aren't at an all time high. Infact, the stock market has gone down around 23 % in last 3 months alone. So it's a pretty big correction already.

[SpokaneAl]

And actually the baht has declined in value since it hit its most recent high in April (in relation to the US $) to where it is pretty much as cheap, rather than as expensive as a few years prior.

[johnthompson]

Well stocks are still quite high and they are climbing again.

[yoshiwara]

Export-led stocks would be supported by a lower baht.

Some condos are aimed at new expat markets eg many new developments marketed in the malls have marketing materials in Russian.

A lower baht may increase expat demand for new apartments as they become more affordable.

[sas_cars]

Well stocks are still quite high and they are climbing again.

I guess 23 % correction is a major correction already? How cheap you want them to be anyways that you'd like to go and buy few of them? Guess you aren't going to buy a million $ woth of shares so why worry so much?

[billd766]

Stocks and shares in any country are simply a gamble based on an analysts perception.

If he thinks it is a good buy then he will push the sales and that stock will go up as others follow the leader.

If they go down it is similar.

From what I can understand the Thai stock market SETwent up when the US was printing money with no end and foreign money poured in.

When the US started to slow the printers down, out went the foreign money and down went the SET as buyers became sellers and took their profits.

Condos etc are built on cheap credit money and not to a specific order. Condo builders try to sell the units from the plans even before they start building as it eases their cash flow.

Of course if the lenders want their money back before the building is complete or raise their interest rates then perhaps the condo is never finished and the potential buyer loses his money.

Alternatively it is finished and there are not enough buyers so the builder loses and goes out of business.

What has always amazed me is the large numbers of analysts etc and companies who want to invest your money in any stock market.

I figure that if they are any good why aren't they rich and retired at 25, 30 or 40 years old.

[Phronesis]

Nonsense from the OP

The SET is now about the same price as it was a year ago..that is, it is at a 52 week low.

And this is the advice that Bualuang emailed to me yesterday:

-------------------------------

BLS.Technical daily

Issued date : 06/09/2013

Brief :

Action:we suggest reducing exposure to the stock market at the current level.

-------------------------------

Their view of the economy moving forward would appear rather clear cut....

[Naam]

Well stocks are still quite high and they are climbing again.

the SET's alltime high was nearly 20 years ago at 1754 - this is how the SET looks like during that period:

[PattayaPhom]

OP compares 4 years ago....compare 4 weeks ago its a different story.

[johnthompson]

So the SET has never been in the 1300 range before since 1997. Thus stocks are expensive. And last week the SET increased by 3.2%.

With all of the problems that I have been seeing manly high consumer debt, inflation, rice buying scheme and consumer confidence. Why did the SET increase by 3.2% since last week? Why is it at levels never seen before since 1997? I don't care if it dropped 18.7% from year high. its still at levels never seen before

[GAS]

Why is the US stock market at all time highs?

It is all just a giant Ponzi...

[chiang mai]

- Public debt 80% of GDP

- Skyrocketing inflation

- Government debt in the trillions

The OP should research the above key financial indicators and he will find that the actual numbers are nowhere near what he portays, here's an assist to help him answer his own question:

.http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Standard/SDDS/Pages/sdds.aspx

[Naam]

So the SET has never been in the 1300 range before since 1997. Thus stocks are expensive. And last week the SET increased by 3.2%.

With all of the problems that I have been seeing manly high consumer debt, inflation, rice buying scheme and consumer confidence. Why did the SET increase by 3.2% since last week? Why is it at levels never seen before since 1997? I don't care if it dropped 18.7% from year high. its still at levels never seen before

do you need reading glasses? look at the graph i posted which clearly shows 1993-1996 SET above 1300.

[davejones]

This sounds like another troll post. Either that or the OP hasn't done any research before posting this nonsense. Stocks go up and down for all sorts of reasons, and it's impossible to know why, as the ups and downs are the result of thousands of trades. You'd have to find each person that bought and sold and ask them why they did so.

There are lots of inaccuracies in what you say. For a start the SET index is down over 20%, not at an all time high. So why did it go up 3% in a week. Well maybe lots of people thought it had dropped too far and saw it as a buying opportunity. The best buying opportunities are when indexes are down this amount. Doesn't mean the stocks won't drop more, but the buying risk get less.

Rubber farmers - just because a few are on strike isn't going to affect most SET companies.

Inflation is not skyrocketing - what's your definition of skyrocketing.

GDP is still up over the last 12 months.

Sounds like you don't understand economics or stock trading, so it's bets if you don't get involved. Why do you care so much?

[Naam]

This sounds like another troll post.

either troll or muppet

[rgs2001uk]

This sounds like another troll post.

either troll or muppet

Sounds more like another potential candidate for the upcoming Mcwalen School Of Investment, best he signs up pronto, he can mix with TVs very own (self appointed) Shakers n Movers.

PS, Dr Naam, I trust you reserved me a seat right next to yours.

[Naam]

This sounds like another troll post.

either troll or muppet

Sounds more like another potential candidate for the upcoming Mcwalen School Of Investment, best he signs up pronto, he can mix with TVs very own (self appointed) Shakers n Movers.

PS, Dr Naam, I trust you reserved me a seat right next to yours.

only for this time? i have booked all 53 following seminars too

[rgs2001uk]

Marvellous idea, I feel sure Mr Mac being the business man he claims to be will at least understand market forces and offer group/block discounts.

Unfortunately I have a pre arranged dental visit, I feel sure it will be less painful though, do await your post seminar input.

[metisdead]

A flame post has been removed.

[Bpuumike]

Stocks and shares in any country are simply a gamble based on an analysts perception.

If he thinks it is a good buy then he will push the sales and that stock will go up as others follow the leader.

If they go down it is similar.

From what I can understand the Thai stock market SETwent up when the US was printing money with no end and foreign money poured in.

When the US started to slow the printers down, out went the foreign money and down went the SET as buyers became sellers and took their profits.

Condos etc are built on cheap credit money and not to a specific order. Condo builders try to sell the units from the plans even before they start building as it eases their cash flow.

Of course if the lenders want their money back before the building is complete or raise their interest rates then perhaps the condo is never finished and the potential buyer loses his money.

Alternatively it is finished and there are not enough buyers so the builder loses and goes out of business.

What has always amazed me is the large numbers of analysts etc and companies who want to invest your money in any stock market.

I figure that if they are any good why aren't they rich and retired at 25, 30 or 40 years old.

Who and what to believe. Tread carefully with Thai stocks.

Happily sitting on the sidelines watched the 'off plan' condo business rocket up and then collapse in Spain

I can show you uncompleted 'towers' in BKK and KK. The Thai banks refuse to sell them at any sort of loss, I guess saving face overules business sense.

Indeed, if these analysts and advisers are so good why aren't they rich and retired?

[yoshiwara]

Why do you care so much?

Somehow some people think they are entitled to a 1-way bet and when the story doesn't pan out they way they thought it would, they feel cheated.

[Naam]

Marvellous idea, I feel sure Mr Mac being the business man he claims to be will at least understand market forces and offer group/block discounts.

Unfortunately I have a pre arranged dental visit, I feel sure it will be less painful though, do await your post seminar input.

this won't be possible. i think that all participants will have to swear some sort of holy secrecy oath.

[johnthompson]

SET up 3% today. So now its only 23% away from all time high of 1750.

[johnthompson]

Set up by 8.86 points. Its about the break through 1400 and shows no signs of stopping.

My mind is just blown. Stocks have more than tripled since 2008.

[yoshiwara]

Set up by 8.86 points. Its about the break through 1400 and shows no signs of stopping.

My mind is just blown. Stocks have more than tripled since 2008.

No temptation to cash out?