Changing China Set to Shake World Economy, Again

[LawrenceChee]

Interesting article.

If, and it's a big if, the middle classes revolted, who would they turn to for leadership?

There is no credible opposition. Or is it under the surface?

Seems to me the people of China are used to just towing the line. Robotic subordination is in their psyche.

True, there isn't any group or organization in any shape or form on the Mainland.

A post-CCP government would have to bring to Beijing a lot of democracy advocates from Hong Kong.

There are liberal reformers in the CCP with governing experience at the provincial and national level who would have to take the overall lead in all of this.

There are too many of them to name here, but Wang Yang, former governor of the prosperous and liberal Guangdong province in the southernmost PRC would be one. Guangdong includes its liberal capital Guangzhou City (the old Canton) and the even more liberal and prosperous Shenzhen City which benefits tremendously from abutting Hong Kong. But then the whole of the province might well secede, so that has to be a consideration, given they like close by Taiwan's democracy and society.

Wang is one of four vice-premiers and sits on the Central Committee but was denied a position on the Politburo by Xi Jinping. He's the favorite of many Western leaders of governments, which is a major reason I point him out. He made his name as a reformer while Guangdong governor, so people know he's exceptional.

The Chinese after the CCP would need to turn to Taiwan, to Hong Kong, Singapore, S Korea and, horrors, Japan for guidance and direction. They'd have to import Western political leaders and intellectuals as advisors.

Of course, hard line CCP members have faith that post-CCP democracy in China would fail miserably and that the people would be clamoring for the return of the CCP to restore order. The fact is, if the CCP were to try to return, there would be a new civil war.

Another central factor are the PLA regional commanders who remain nothing more than Chinese warlords who are loyal to their regional CCP officials, nominally loyal to Beijing. I don't know the inside baseball of these commanders or how they might align, but what they choose to do would have a powerful affect from the outset.

Quotes from the lost American dream ? Importing western advisors and turning to Singapore and HK and Taiwan for advise ?

Wow how far fetching is that ...almost comparable to Obama calling Xi now and asking what to do with the bi-partisan disagreements and Xi giving him advice with the "off with theirs heads" quote

Head down to any of the provinces and do a blind survey and see how many of the mainland Chinese will take policy direction from any of these 3 named city states... You will find admiration for the cleanliness of the cities & the shopping but taking political & governing directions ?

I can see Toyota selling themselves out to Geely Corp before that would ever happen.

[SinglePot]

You Mr Chee can see what you see.

It appears to be a characteristic of a certain psyche.

[LawrenceChee]

You Mr Chee can see what you see.

It appears to be a characteristic of a certain psyche.

Ditto for those who pray for the collapse of CCP or China every night before cookies and milk.

[SinglePot]

Chinese economy goes kaput? I will take the rap like everybody else you think you have power over.

[boomerangutang]

Interesting article.

If, and it's a big if, the middle classes revolted, who would they turn to for leadership?

There is no credible opposition. Or is it under the surface?

Seems to me the people of China are used to just towing the line. Robotic subordination is in their psyche.

True, there isn't any group or organization in any shape or form on the Mainland.

A post-CCP government would have to bring to Beijing a lot of democracy advocates from Hong Kong.

There are liberal reformers in the CCP with governing experience at the provincial and national level who would have to take the overall lead in all of this.

There are too many of them to name here, but Wang Yang, former governor of the prosperous and liberal Guangdong province in the southernmost PRC would be one. Guangdong includes its liberal capital Guangzhou City (the old Canton) and the even more liberal and prosperous Shenzhen City which benefits tremendously from abutting Hong Kong. But then the whole of the province might well secede, so that has to be a consideration, given they like close by Taiwan's democracy and society.

Wang is one of four vice-premiers and sits on the Central Committee but was denied a position on the Politburo by Xi Jinping. He's the favorite of many Western leaders of governments, which is a major reason I point him out. He made his name as a reformer while Guangdong governor, so people know he's exceptional.

The Chinese after the CCP would need to turn to Taiwan, to Hong Kong, Singapore, S Korea and, horrors, Japan for guidance and direction. They'd have to import Western political leaders and intellectuals as advisors.

Of course, hard line CCP members have faith that post-CCP democracy in China would fail miserably and that the people would be clamoring for the return of the CCP to restore order. The fact is, if the CCP were to try to return, there would be a new civil war.

Another central factor are the PLA regional commanders who remain nothing more than Chinese warlords who are loyal to their regional CCP officials, nominally loyal to Beijing. I don't know the inside baseball of these commanders or how they might align, but what they choose to do would have a powerful affect from the outset.

There seems to be an assumption that, if China implodes, some sort of orderly processes will coalesce to put Humpty Dumpty together again. I see the likelihood that chaos will ensue, at least for months - perhaps followed by armed factions vying for supremacy. Much of the history of China in the past 150 years is chaotic - particularly when there's a power vacuum. The politburo knows this, and that's a major reason they rule with an iron fist.

[SinglePot]

The entire history of China has been chaotic.

Apparently they created the game of golf in the 13th century. Did you know that?

They had ships the size of the Queen Mary made from wood and which sailed the oceans of the world.

More recently, like around 1970 AD, thirty million or more of them are dying from hunger.

Christ knows what they were doing BC, it's not on the register.

Now 2013. The world's economic superpower.

[SinglePot]

You Mr Chee can see what you see.

It appears to be a characteristic of a certain psyche.

Ditto for those who pray for the collapse of CCP or China every night before cookies and milk.

Yep. Milk from Switzerland. Chinese milk is ok for the dog. I hope.

Cookies and milk!!!! Is there something you need to tell us Chee.

Edited October 7, 2013 by SinglePot

[LawrenceChee]

You Mr Chee can see what you see.

It appears to be a characteristic of a certain psyche.

Ditto for those who pray for the collapse of CCP or China every night before cookies and milk.

Yep. Milk from Switzerland. Chinese milk is ok for the dog. I hope.

Cookies and milk!!!! Is there something you need to tell us Chee.

I am unsure why the necessity to bring it down to this tone. There are many Chinese families using Chinese milk for their kids tonight.

Perhaps a case of too much horse meat in your beef burger parties ?

[SinglePot]

I was hoping that after spending a year in Beijing and eating many kebabs I would find myself able to run the 100 metres in less than 10 seconds.

BTW. I don't like restaurants where there is dog meat on the menu. I just can't get enthusiastic about it.

Xi Jinping and your apparent cronies are welcome. As for Mao and his fatty pork, the less said the better.

[Publicus]

There's a post with messed up quotes, which happens to most anyone, so my reply to it is that

Chinese democrats - downcase 'd' - are open minded and, I'm confident, would welcome assistance from their overseas Chinese brethren who are versed in democracy to promote a post-CCP democracy in the new China.

Those CCP-PRChinese who are hostile towards democracy, foreigners, devils from the West and the like, would oppose and resent any national of another country that is a democracy going to a new China to try to get democracy off the ground there.

It's a very basic dichotomy between the authoritarian PRChinese and the Chinese who are democratic or aspire to become democrats.

[SinglePot]

Not sure that Wang Yang is the man for the job then.

Evolution or Revolution?

Let them stew in their broth.

[boomerangutang]

Not sure that Wang Yang is the man for the job then.

Evolution or Revolution?

Let them stew in their broth.

....in their MSG broth.

[LawrenceChee]

Not sure that Wang Yang is the man for the job then.

Evolution or Revolution?

Let them stew in their broth.

....in their MSG broth.

Try some Cantonese broth ...very very tasty and no msg

Nope msg champion title belongs to the Thais and Japanese

[boomerangutang]

Not sure that Wang Yang is the man for the job then.

Evolution or Revolution?

Let them stew in their broth.

....in their MSG broth.

[LawrenceChee]

There's a post with messed up quotes, which happens to most anyone, so my reply to it is that

Chinese democrats - downcase 'd' - are open minded and, I'm confident, would welcome assistance from their overseas Chinese brethren who are versed in democracy to promote a post-CCP democracy in the new China.

Those CCP-PRChinese who are hostile towards democracy, foreigners, devils from the West and the like, would oppose and resent any national of another country that is a democracy going to a new China to try to get democracy off the ground there.

It's a very basic dichotomy between the authoritarian PRChinese and the Chinese who are democratic or aspire to become democrats.

A realist would realize the youth of today worldwide are disengaged in politics and believe it is silly suits trying to be important.

In a world where even the Lords try to fake a dime here and there on expense claims for gardening bills means we are already very sad...

Almost every country suffers from politicians fatigue from empty promises to corruption to trying to find money to pay for next month'a bills.

Good luck searching out for your majority democracy advocates ...it's hard to find that not because of hatred etc etc of the CCP just pure disinterest.

I remember a recent trip in Hong Kong ....many have posted here lamenting it has gone back to China...spoke to an old lady I know who is 86 and bent over working to collect cardboard at the downtown Harbor City chic chic area...

This is her direct quote in Cantonese ...foreign man smile and are polite but they leave nothing and don't help ...I don't like the Chinese but at least their shopping generates a living for me ...it pays for my next soup meal. Politicians are all useless and talk a lot but they don't understand us....Practical she is and wise cookie.

[LawrenceChee]

In the ongoing APEC...it's encouraging to see China engaging Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Australia on new platforms for investments, FTAs and strategic partnerships

Good to be talking through this to minimize misunderstandings.

I fear in the next phase of the economic drive ...the globe is looking like an inverted U in terms of global investments

[Scott]

This topic is getting very trollish. Simply taking pot shots at anything Chinese isn't going to cut it. This is about the economy and the affect of China on the world economy.

Further nonsensical, off-topic posts will be deleted.

[Publicus]

There's a post with messed up quotes, which happens to most anyone, so my reply to it is that

Chinese democrats - downcase 'd' - are open minded and, I'm confident, would welcome assistance from their overseas Chinese brethren who are versed in democracy to promote a post-CCP democracy in the new China.

Those CCP-PRChinese who are hostile towards democracy, foreigners, devils from the West and the like, would oppose and resent any national of another country that is a democracy going to a new China to try to get democracy off the ground there.

It's a very basic dichotomy between the authoritarian PRChinese and the Chinese who are democratic or aspire to become democrats.

A realist would realize the youth of today worldwide are disengaged in politics and believe it is silly suits trying to be important.

In a world where even the Lords try to fake a dime here and there on expense claims for gardening bills means we are already very sad...

Almost every country suffers from politicians fatigue from empty promises to corruption to trying to find money to pay for next month'a bills.

Good luck searching out for your majority democracy advocates ...it's hard to find that not because of hatred etc etc of the CCP just pure disinterest.

I remember a recent trip in Hong Kong ....many have posted here lamenting it has gone back to China...spoke to an old lady I know who is 86 and bent over working to collect cardboard at the downtown Harbor City chic chic area...

This is her direct quote in Cantonese ...foreign man smile and are polite but they leave nothing and don't help ...I don't like the Chinese but at least their shopping generates a living for me ...it pays for my next soup meal. Politicians are all useless and talk a lot but they don't understand us....Practical she is and wise cookie.

As I said, you don't like or think much of democracy.

Determining the fact is just a matter of slicing through all the baloney.

[boomerangutang]

How is 'Changing China Set to Shake World Economy Again'?

They're good at copying. They've even got hordes of salaried men and women who go to work each day for the express purpose of prying as much inside-info from internet snooping on western military and corporations - as possible. patents, diagrams, munitions, chemical formulas, ....you name it. Mostly from the US, no surprise.

However adept they are at copying, there's room for improvement.

I just bought 2 Chinese-made pirated CD's in Burma. One was a 2 CD set with Stevie Wonder's name and photo on the cover. The same photo was on each CD. However, one CD was S.W. whereas the other was all Elton John.

The other CD had the following two tracks (of 14) mispelled:

>>> Then a Man Lover a Woman (should be; When a Man Loves a Woman)

>>> That's Shat Love is All About

[LawrenceChee]

There's a post with messed up quotes, which happens to most anyone, so my reply to it is that

Chinese democrats - downcase 'd' - are open minded and, I'm confident, would welcome assistance from their overseas Chinese brethren who are versed in democracy to promote a post-CCP democracy in the new China.

Those CCP-PRChinese who are hostile towards democracy, foreigners, devils from the West and the like, would oppose and resent any national of another country that is a democracy going to a new China to try to get democracy off the ground there.

It's a very basic dichotomy between the authoritarian PRChinese and the Chinese who are democratic or aspire to become democrats.

A realist would realize the youth of today worldwide are disengaged in politics and believe it is silly suits trying to be important.

In a world where even the Lords try to fake a dime here and there on expense claims for gardening bills means we are already very sad...

Almost every country suffers from politicians fatigue from empty promises to corruption to trying to find money to pay for next month'a bills.

Good luck searching out for your majority democracy advocates ...it's hard to find that not because of hatred etc etc of the CCP just pure disinterest.

I remember a recent trip in Hong Kong ....many have posted here lamenting it has gone back to China...spoke to an old lady I know who is 86 and bent over working to collect cardboard at the downtown Harbor City chic chic area...

This is her direct quote in Cantonese ...foreign man smile and are polite but they leave nothing and don't help ...I don't like the Chinese but at least their shopping generates a living for me ...it pays for my next soup meal. Politicians are all useless and talk a lot but they don't understand us....Practical she is and wise cookie.

As I said, you don't like or think much of democracy.

Determining the fact is just a matter of slicing through all the baloney.

I'll vote for a government that works ...the rest is deservedly baloney and should be ignored.

As I mentioned the CCP is not perfect but I like the direction it's going with the changes to try to make things better

[LawrenceChee]

How is 'Changing China Set to Shake World Economy Again'?

They're good at copying. They've even got hordes of salaried men and women who go to work each day for the express purpose of prying as much inside-info from internet snooping on western military and corporations - as possible. patents, diagrams, munitions, chemical formulas, ....you name it. Mostly from the US, no surprise.

However adept they are at copying, there's room for improvement.

I just bought 2 Chinese-made pirated CD's in Burma. One was a 2 CD set with Stevie Wonder's name and photo on the cover. The same photo was on each CD. However, one CD was S.W. whereas the other was all Elton John.

The other CD had the following two tracks (of 14) mispelled:

>>> Then a Man Lover a Woman (should be; When a Man Loves a Woman)

>>> That's Shat Love is All About

If u like it perfect ...you should head down to the store and buy a true copy oops Borders and HMV are all bankrupt and closed ..these Chinese made goods at that price needs to be taken with a pinch of salt ..it's not made perfect.

Wondering why U bought a copy anyway ? U just stole on copyrights from the USA artists

I shop on iTunes and pay for music.

[Publicus]

There's a post with messed up quotes, which happens to most anyone, so my reply to it is that

Chinese democrats - downcase 'd' - are open minded and, I'm confident, would welcome assistance from their overseas Chinese brethren who are versed in democracy to promote a post-CCP democracy in the new China.

Those CCP-PRChinese who are hostile towards democracy, foreigners, devils from the West and the like, would oppose and resent any national of another country that is a democracy going to a new China to try to get democracy off the ground there.

It's a very basic dichotomy between the authoritarian PRChinese and the Chinese who are democratic or aspire to become democrats.

A realist would realize the youth of today worldwide are disengaged in politics and believe it is silly suits trying to be important.

In a world where even the Lords try to fake a dime here and there on expense claims for gardening bills means we are already very sad...

Almost every country suffers from politicians fatigue from empty promises to corruption to trying to find money to pay for next month'a bills.

Good luck searching out for your majority democracy advocates ...it's hard to find that not because of hatred etc etc of the CCP just pure disinterest.

I remember a recent trip in Hong Kong ....many have posted here lamenting it has gone back to China...spoke to an old lady I know who is 86 and bent over working to collect cardboard at the downtown Harbor City chic chic area...

This is her direct quote in Cantonese ...foreign man smile and are polite but they leave nothing and don't help ...I don't like the Chinese but at least their shopping generates a living for me ...it pays for my next soup meal. Politicians are all useless and talk a lot but they don't understand us....Practical she is and wise cookie.

As I said, you don't like or think much of democracy.

Determining the fact is just a matter of slicing through all the baloney.

I'll vote for a government that works ...the rest is deservedly baloney and should be ignored.

As I mentioned the CCP is not perfect but I like the direction it's going with the changes to try to make things better

You'll vote for a government that.......?!

No you won't.

You won't vote for anything in the CCP-PRC. Unless voting is specifically controlled or supervised by the CCP, in limited settings, voting is a crime and you'd go to prison.

The CCP-PRC is the only government of the world to have a Nobel Peace Laureate, Dr Liu Jiaobo (2010) imprisoned. Dr Liu got an 11 year sentence because he advocates a transition of the CCP-PRC to democracy by gradual, peaceful, evolutionary means that are carefully considered and implemented.

You won't get to vote for anything run by the CCP unless they say you can. So good luck with that one.

[LawrenceChee]

For the moderates who are interested in the various committees of the CCP

http://www.npc.gov.cn/englishnpc/about/2007-11/20/content_1373251.htm

I would not get drawn into a debate on which model of voting is the true democracy as if is off topic.

Frankly I suspect there are enough moderates who understand a rubber stamp government exist everywhere and most cynics view them as being a necessity more than serving an actual need

[Publicus]

For the moderates who are interested in the various committees of the CCP

http://www.npc.gov.cn/englishnpc/about/2007-11/20/content_1373251.htm

I would not get drawn into a debate on which model of voting is the true democracy as if is off topic.

Frankly I suspect there are enough moderates who understand a rubber stamp government exist everywhere and most cynics view them as being a necessity more than serving an actual need

By definition, modernization includes democracy. Still, however, there remain ancient minded people who continue to oppose democracy and want to continue to have the government rule by oligarchy, elites, autocrats.

The CCP boldly advocate this.

Others try to hide it, but can't.

[SinglePot]

Frankly, the possibility exists that the Chinese economy could be better served by a modern elected government who understand macroeconomics better than the followers of the pragmatic free market economy introduced to China by Deng Xiaoping after the disaster years of Mao Zedong.

Heck. US, Britain and Europe have 200 years of experience since the industrial revolution that China voluntarily, and at great cost, failed to engage with.

But no. This is China; the new economic superpower that does not know its social responsibility from its greed.

If I was Xi Jinping, instead of having elite establishments to 'furnace the spirit of the party' I would have an economic think tank made up of good Chinese men and top thought leaders from the West and Japan.

Maybe the CCP have this already, I don't know.

Edited October 8, 2013 by SinglePot

[SinglePot]

"If I was Xi Jinping, instead of having elite establishments to 'furnace the spirit of the party' I would have an economic think tank made up of good Chinese men and top thought leaders from the West and Japan."

But no. We are the CCP. We don't want any interference with our authority.

The Bully Boys from Beijing. Beauracrats in counterfeit black Buicks.

[boomerangutang]

Chinese who see clearly (how Beijing politburo stiffles thinking) will try to emigrate to freer countries like Australia and USA in increasing numbers. Concurrently, Chinese who travel abroad, to Europe, USA, Australia, will be better apprised of how free thinking can exist within a state system. Will there be another large Tianemin type protest? Possibly, but it will happen (certainly get brewed) largely within the internet. But that won't be enough to affect changes. There would need to be people gathering and making their aspirations known. It won't be pretty.

[Scott]

The people who will travel and see freedom will be a little bit older and probably relatively comfortable, they might want change, but I don't think they are the type that take to the streets.

Large scale demonstrations occur when people are very unhappy or hungry. Large demonstrations are also more closely associated with younger people. This is not always the case, but a generalization.

China is an anomaly in many ways so how change occurs will be interesting to watch.

[SinglePot]

The OP is about China's economy, its evolution and potential impact on world economy.

OK, let's focus on the wealth creation bit for a moment and park the apparent inequitable distribution of that wealth.

Revenue generation in most businesses comes down largely to the quality of management. My experience in Beijing in the industry that I have worked in for over 30 years is the middle and senior Chinese management are lightweight.

They find it difficult to embrace new or different thinking, and they are definitely not team players.

Richard Branson and the late great Steve Jobs would die laughing.....if it were not so serious.

As China transitions into phase 2 of its economic development, the phrase 'created in California, assembled in China' will presumably become history.

Good luck. I wouldn't give them the job frankly.

But China is not my country and it's not my business.

Apart from the fact that the OP is also about the world economy.

IMHO I think everybody would be better off if some free thinking came into play.

[LawrenceChee]

The people who will travel and see freedom will be a little bit older and probably relatively comfortable, they might want change, but I don't think they are the type that take to the streets.

Large scale demonstrations occur when people are very unhappy or hungry. Large demonstrations are also more closely associated with younger people. This is not always the case, but a generalization.

China is an anomaly in many ways so how change occurs will be interesting to watch.

There are some points here worth pondering on ....

For the Chinese who have traveled, it gives them a better appreciation that every other country grapple with inflation, corruption and indeed for the savvy ones, they realized if one has to get discriminated at least do it on your own turf.

The other point is about mass demonstrations, the possibilities are low very very low. The CCP has to make a lot of bad moves to make the people this angry.

However the recent high profile jailings, the crackdowns on corruption and the swiftness of justice gives the Chinese much to think about that this current crop will advance things along.

The Egypt situation is strongly discussed on Weibo and it seems the pragmatic Chinese will prevail over the "dog officials" hatred. Yes the Chinese have a lot of flowery descrips like the west on their inept officials

Once one breaks into the barrier and get into cliques of Chinese friends , their description of the CCP is rather amusing and perhaps may even appease the hardliners...however the Chinese are pragmatic to the end, once the frustration has been vented, it's back to the beers and the hotpots.

They see a lot of the instability on the Middle East and now while it's seems idealistic and glamorous to the streets and ask for change, the real question is change to what ?

They have seen how the instability affects commerce, tourism and families safety and going to school etc and the Chinese says stick with the dogs you are familiar with

At least after they have all farted and said their piece ...they still run the country.

Lots of grouses about how things can get better but heck it's everywhere ...so what's new about governments and politics ...this may be the indifference at times that frustrates the west who think why won't the ordinary Chinese overthrow the CCP and wish for something better