Thai opinion: We DON'T NEED this massive debt

[tingtongteesood]

Thailand does not need this massive debt. What it does need is an end to corruption and cronyism and for jobs to be done properly the first time with proper materials by trained professionals who know what they are doing. At present, politician keeps 40% of the money, gives the rest to his cousin who doesn't know what he's doing but wants the money and cuts whatever corners he possibly can so that he can keep as much of that money as possible. THIS HAS TO CHANGE !!!

[Jim walker]

Every politician in every government is out for themselves never mind the working poor people just keep planting and picking the rice and pay your taxes its me me the hardworking honest politician only me that counts money money give me more I will never have enough more money we love money money Greed is Good welcome to Thailand.

[hellodolly]

Many good points in this article. I cant but help think, if a tree falls in a forest and nobody wants to hear it, does it make a sound.

Thailand is going to be a great place in the future for people who dont like change.

True it will be a great place for people who love to take train rides with a 50/50 chance at arriving at their destination. It will be a great place for people who want 30% of all their tax baht to go into the private pockets of politicians and bureaucrats. It will be a great place for people who want to see schools graduating people who are unable to reason or use logic much less add two plus two with out a calculator. These are the results that will come about if this bill is passed with out an intelligent plan that they must adhere to before they pass it.

As for the sex and drug trade they will change become more available. I don't think there will be much of an uproar over that.

Actually Thailand is a great place for all of the above with or without the loan bill / high speed trains

True but it needs to do some thing about it's rail system and that is not in the plans.

Have a look at the plan it is for three high speed trains to go part way. They actually figure that private investors will pay for the completion of them. In the case of the one to Chiang Mai it won't even go 1/3 of the way and leave the costliest part to private enterprise. Who in there right mind would invest in that.

The bottom line is the money they plan on puttrting into high speed trains would be fart more benificaly spent on bringing the existing system up to reasonable safety standards.

As for getting the money I think they are planning on strong arming banks in Thailand.

[monkeycountry]

The opinion of one person. It is rather badly headlined as "Thai Opinion". The Thai people as a whole can have their say at the next election. Simple. That is how democracy works.

The last bunch actually spent 1.4 trillion on giving people 1000 baht notes in their hands and there was hardly a quibble from all those moaning now. And yet the people voted them out clearly not trusting them to run the country in a way that actually helped the majority. The current opposition after being unceremoniously booted out in this way should learn the lesson and adapt and try to get elected instead of spending all their time throwing tantrums, chairs, insulting the rural poor and locking everything up in a myriad of court cases to prevent any policy being implemented. Thailand needs a viable electable alternative to the current government. Right now they lack one. The history of the initial rise of Thaksin shows it is possible to appeal to the majority and electorally come from virtually nowhere and defeat established parties. It just means finding common ground with the majority. The opposition would be well served by learning form their nemesis and modernising their own archaic regionally hampered party structure although admittedly getting the inbuilt southern executive control to agree to give up their power of controlling the party without consideration for others is going to be hard and beyond a lightweight like Abhisit.

Imagine Yingluck asks everyone in Isaan and elsewhere if she should borrow 10,000 baht on behalf of each one of them and give the cash straight to them. Unlike them she actually has the power to get such a loan. The repayment will be done over many years by the government incl. Interest. Do you think they would say yes or no to that? Now imagine if she changed it to 100,000 baht each, what do you think they would say? Now imagine a million baht each, cash in hand today, eventually repaid by the government incl. Interest, what do you think they would say?

can we agree they would all be lining up for the cash? Can we also agree that people who think taking out such a loan is a good idea, should not be making any decisions at all?

[caughtintheact]

Remember the Hopeless .....whoops....Hopewell Project. The "U-Turn pillars"* are still lined up along Viphavadee Rangsit Road.

*The term U-Turn pillars was coined, I believe, by Dr. Seri Wongmontha to signify that investors arriving at Don Muang International Airport (as it was called at the time) will see the pillars of the Hopewell Project, do a U-Turn, go back to the airport and get a flight to a better investment climate. Now, oif course, using the Suvarnabhumi International Arport, investors may not get to see the remains of the Hopewell Project.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangkok_Elevated_Road_and_Train_System

[MrSlatersParrot]

Remember the Hopeless .....whoops....Hopewell Project. The "U-Turn pillars"* are still lined up along Viphavadee Rangsit Road.

*The term U-Turn pillars was coined, I believe, by Dr. Seri Wongmontha to signify that investors arriving at Don Muang International Airport (as it was called at the time) will see the pillars of the Hopewell Project, do a U-Turn, go back to the airport and get a flight to a better investment climate. Now, oif course, using the Suvarnabhumi International Arport, investors may not get to see the remains of the Hopewell Project.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangkok_Elevated_Road_and_Train_System

Here's a good example of why they are seeking the loan so projects can be properly funded and not cancelled or have their budgets slashed after a change in government or in Thailand another coup.

I thought a second terminal or was it a runway was supposed to have been completed at Swampy by now but since the last coup in 2006 no further works have been carried out.

[hammered]

The opinion of one person. It is rather badly headlined as "Thai Opinion". The Thai people as a whole can have their say at the next election. Simple. That is how democracy works.

The last bunch actually spent 1.4 trillion on giving people 1000 baht notes in their hands and there was hardly a quibble from all those moaning now. And yet the people voted them out clearly not trusting them to run the country in a way that actually helped the majority. The current opposition after being unceremoniously booted out in this way should learn the lesson and adapt and try to get elected instead of spending all their time throwing tantrums, chairs, insulting the rural poor and locking everything up in a myriad of court cases to prevent any policy being implemented. Thailand needs a viable electable alternative to the current government. Right now they lack one. The history of the initial rise of Thaksin shows it is possible to appeal to the majority and electorally come from virtually nowhere and defeat established parties. It just means finding common ground with the majority. The opposition would be well served by learning form their nemesis and modernising their own archaic regionally hampered party structure although admittedly getting the inbuilt southern executive control to agree to give up their power of controlling the party without consideration for others is going to be hard and beyond a lightweight like Abhisit.

Imagine Yingluck asks everyone in Isaan and elsewhere if she should borrow 10,000 baht on behalf of each one of them and give the cash straight to them. Unlike them she actually has the power to get such a loan. The repayment will be done over many years by the government incl. Interest. Do you think they would say yes or no to that? Now imagine if she changed it to 100,000 baht each, what do you think they would say? Now imagine a million baht each, cash in hand today, eventually repaid by the government incl. Interest, what do you think they would say?

can we agree they would all be lining up for the cash? Can we also agree that people who think taking out such a loan is a good idea, should not be making any decisions at all?

You may be unaware of this but debt financing projects is common practice although the economically amateurish handing out of 1000 baht notes to all and sundry by the previous regime was lacking in any form of fiscal or economic discipline so we should draw a line at that. Also the main concerns of international economists that have been written about in international economic journals etc have been that this necessary expenditure will be delayed because of political or court action and the Thai economy will then weaken. Of course this latter possibility is still there, and could as with the delaying of the flood prevention plans by court action result in more misery for the people. Local, regional and international financiers and economists in general welcome this plan by the elected Yingluck administration although from reading the vitriolic rantings of the local media especially you would be unaware of this fact. Still it is advisable to read widely and not just believe what is written in local propaganda apparatus.

[bkk_mike]

2tn baht is serious money.

It's something a little over 300,000 baht for each person in the country.

i.e. You could literally buy every adult in the country a new car with that much money...

People in Thailand don't pay enough tax to ever pay that off. Not if it's still got to pay for everything else.

Of course, as a foreigner who doesn't earn any money in Thailand, it would be helpful to me if the loan gets approved as it would be a huge step towards a devaluation of the baht (as happened in 1997).

However, for the sake of my wife's family and other people living in Thailand on fairly modest incomes, I hope the country comes to it's senses and doesn't borrow the money.

[monkeycountry]

The opinion of one person. It is rather badly headlined as "Thai Opinion". The Thai people as a whole can have their say at the next election. Simple. That is how democracy works.

The last bunch actually spent 1.4 trillion on giving people 1000 baht notes in their hands and there was hardly a quibble from all those moaning now. And yet the people voted them out clearly not trusting them to run the country in a way that actually helped the majority. The current opposition after being unceremoniously booted out in this way should learn the lesson and adapt and try to get elected instead of spending all their time throwing tantrums, chairs, insulting the rural poor and locking everything up in a myriad of court cases to prevent any policy being implemented. Thailand needs a viable electable alternative to the current government. Right now they lack one. The history of the initial rise of Thaksin shows it is possible to appeal to the majority and electorally come from virtually nowhere and defeat established parties. It just means finding common ground with the majority. The opposition would be well served by learning form their nemesis and modernising their own archaic regionally hampered party structure although admittedly getting the inbuilt southern executive control to agree to give up their power of controlling the party without consideration for others is going to be hard and beyond a lightweight like Abhisit.

Imagine Yingluck asks everyone in Isaan and elsewhere if she should borrow 10,000 baht on behalf of each one of them and give the cash straight to them. Unlike them she actually has the power to get such a loan. The repayment will be done over many years by the government incl. Interest. Do you think they would say yes or no to that? Now imagine if she changed it to 100,000 baht each, what do you think they would say? Now imagine a million baht each, cash in hand today, eventually repaid by the government incl. Interest, what do you think they would say?

can we agree they would all be lining up for the cash? Can we also agree that people who think taking out such a loan is a good idea, should not be making any decisions at all?

You may be unaware of this but debt financing projects is common practice although the economically amateurish handing out of 1000 baht notes to all and sundry by the previous regime was lacking in any form of fiscal or economic discipline so we should draw a line at that. Also the main concerns of international economists that have been written about in international economic journals etc have been that this necessary expenditure will be delayed because of political or court action and the Thai economy will then weaken. Of course this latter possibility is still there, and could as with the delaying of the flood prevention plans by court action result in more misery for the people. Local, regional and international financiers and economists in general welcome this plan by the elected Yingluck administration although from reading the vitriolic rantings of the local media especially you would be unaware of this fact. Still it is advisable to read widely and not just believe what is written in local propaganda apparatus.

I guess you decided not to answer my question, but whatever.

I was not aware the previous government handed out 1.4 trillion in 1000 baht notes to the entire population. Do you have a link to that information?

Further, do you have a link to those international economic journals that claim that a giant loan to high speed trains in Thailand is a good idea? I wonder how they can have an opinion, one way or another, about a project without first seeing even a basic budget?

Oh, and do not forget, when local and regional bank managers and financiers support the idea, it could have something to do with the fact that their banks are going to make enormous profits from the loans, at minimum risk. The same goes for construction company managers and supporting industries. In general, for the business community, and the stock market, the loans are a great idea.

Yes, debt financing is quite common, but usually for financially viable projects that benefit the general population. Debt financing, or any financing for that matter, for a large scale project such as high speed trains, that the vast majority of the population cannot afford to use, and that will be running at a major loss forever, is definitely not common - at least not in countries with low corruption.

In western europe and Japan almost everyone can afford the high speed trains, and in China the trains generally connect cities with tens of millions of people, so while there is a lot of poor people, there is still enough middle class and rich people to fill the trains. In Thailand the trains will connect Bangkok with some small towns of a few hundred thousand mainly poor people. Hell, they cannot even fill the low cost planes to those towns - and they are a lot cheaper to run than a high speed train.

Last but not least,you mention that handing out cash to the population should not be allowed. I agree with you, but at the same time if I had to choose between the two evils, I am quite sure handing out cash for people to spend would be more beneficial to both the general population as well as the GDP, than a high speed train that will be running either empty or at a huge loss - most likely both!

[phitsanulokjohn]

What's all that clucking i can hear?Surely it's not all the chickens coming home to roost is it?

[billd766]

The opinion of one person. It is rather badly headlined as "Thai Opinion". The Thai people as a whole can have their say at the next election. Simple. That is how democracy works.

The last bunch actually spent 1.4 trillion on giving people 1000 baht notes in their hands and there was hardly a quibble from all those moaning now. And yet the people voted them out clearly not trusting them to run the country in a way that actually helped the majority. The current opposition after being unceremoniously booted out in this way should learn the lesson and adapt and try to get elected instead of spending all their time throwing tantrums, chairs, insulting the rural poor and locking everything up in a myriad of court cases to prevent any policy being implemented. Thailand needs a viable electable alternative to the current government. Right now they lack one. The history of the initial rise of Thaksin shows it is possible to appeal to the majority and electorally come from virtually nowhere and defeat established parties. It just means finding common ground with the majority. The opposition would be well served by learning form their nemesis and modernising their own archaic regionally hampered party structure although admittedly getting the inbuilt southern executive control to agree to give up their power of controlling the party without consideration for others is going to be hard and beyond a lightweight like Abhisit.

Do you have ANY PROOF at all that the Democrats spent 1.4 Tr baht of giving people 1,000 baht notes or is that the opinion of ONE person, YOU?

If you do then PUBLISH it and then send a copy of ALL of your evidence to the DSI, c/o Tarit.

If you don't then please stop spouting unverified and unprovable crap.

Proof is a good thing to have. Allegations are worthless.

[Robby nz]

Robby nz, on 26 Sept 2013 - 08:26, said:

Thought I read somewhere that the Govt had held meetings with local banks to explane to them why they should invest in the 2.2 trillion loan.

If this is true then they are looking to borrow the money from the Thai people, as they have done with the 350 billion, probably because they know no overseas investor would lend at a reasonable rate.

I don't recall the source, and cannot be sure it is accurate, but it quoted the government as saying that 60% of the borrowing would be domestic and 40% would be from overseas sources. This, of course, does not mean that the funds can be found. That the government talked to Thai bankers does not preclude also talking to foreign sources, and it does not necessarily mean that the Thai bankers will take the risk. This brings up the question of the rewards that the bankers can expect for taking the risk, and whether or not those "rewards" will be induced by coercion. . In a form of government that has elected representatives, the solution is to vote out the government and replace it with a government that has no intention of borrowing 2 trillion baht, but of course that has to be done before any commitments are made. .

I very much doubt that any of the Thai banks will have a choice as to whether they "invest" in the 2.2 trillion loan or not.

The Govt owned banks for a start will do what they are told even though some if not most (it has been reported) are close to a lending limit already.

The other independent banks will all in some way have to rely on Govt goodwill for their existence so will also probably have little choice.

As for voting the Govt out, there is no chance of doing that before an election, right?

That is why PT is so keen to get this and all other contentious legislation passed before an election just in case the people wake up and dump them.

It must be remembered that this borrowing is to be done outside budget so therefore is not accountable within normal budget reporting (same as the 350 billion) so in reality may not be accounted for at all.

If budget money can disappear, as it does, then out of budget spending would be even more open to corruption.

[klubex99]

WELL , firstly , how this guy chose Australia and India as comparisons is daft to say the least , as australia is a modern 1st world country and the Indian rail network was built whilst colonized by the Brits , pity they decided not to colonize thailand ,...it would be a far better country than it is now , education, infrastructure , science ,law, corruption etc etc , ....a pity, .......even the french could have improved a few things ! some nice brothels though, .....well done thailand .

I agree 100%

I often think to myself.

Is Thailand justified in feeling proud that they avoided colonization, or would it be a lot more accurate to say that Thailand must be feeling bitter that they missed out on colonization?

Colonization with a few exceptions has proved to have been the backbone of success in a lot of countries that would have struggled to be anything other than third world jungles or deserts. Into self sufficient havens within their respective continents.

I strangely enough had a conversation with the wife on this matter only just last night, that if Thailand had been colonized, and with its tourism etc... It could have been the most powerful country in SEA by a mile...... She agreed, because she has an education.

Edited to add.....

I also discussed with her that it is about time Thailand allowed itself to become more flexible with the wealth of farangs it has here, and allowed then to have more of a hand in its country's development. Open things up a bit more and make things a lot more accessible such as owning companys 100%, or even scrapping the 4 Thai worker to 1 farang worker rule. Just 2 things that would help this country prosper more instead of having to beg for money knowing that it will cause problems further down the line.

Edited September 27, 2013 by klubex99

[paddyjenkins]

Thought I read somewhere that the Govt had held meetings with local banks to explane to them why they should invest in the 2.2 trillion loan.

If this is true then they are looking to borrow the money from the Thai people, as they have done with the 350 billion, probably because they know no overseas investor would lend at a reasonable rate.

I don't recall the source, and cannot be sure it is accurate, but it quoted the government as saying that 60% of the borrowing would be domestic and 40% would be from overseas sources. This, of course, does not mean that the funds can be found. That the government talked to Thai bankers does not preclude also talking to foreign sources, and it does not necessarily mean that the Thai bankers will take the risk. This brings up the question of the rewards that the bankers can expect for taking the risk, and whether or not those "rewards" will be induced by coercion. . In a form of government that has elected representatives, the solution is to vote out the government and replace it with a government that has no intention of borrowing 2 trillion baht, but of course that has to be done before any commitments are made. .

The 60:40 mix, if correct, answers the question. This just means that Thailand will eventually default on this loan, probably through an eventual currency devaluation or continued inflation, or both.

International investors are often suckers for this kind of nonsense, look how quickly they rushed back to buy Indonesian debt after that country defaulted. As for domestic buyers", they are basically the taxpayers and they have no choice in the matter. The debt will be bought on their behalf and they will pay through subsequently higher taxes and/or higher inflation, without any real return on their "investment".

Meanwhile, the ultra rich and corrupt, those connected few, will take their usual cut.

But what gets me is if this is just business as usal for Thailand, then why is its economy doing so well....low unemployment, a stock market that is strong apart from the ocassional blip (its been a while since it really crashed), construction everywhere, brand new cars everywhere?

Normally misallocation of capital (and theft is pretty big on my qualifiers for what constitutes misallocation) will eventually lead to ruin.

So where will the ruin come from? What will dent the widespread optimism that seems so prevalent in Thailand despite the frequent and strange protestations of an economy in recession that desperatly needs stimulus and non-existent financial crisis etc?

[jpeg]

Do we need the Bt2 trillion to upgrade our infrastructure? Perhaps we do.

I read in the BP this week that a whopping 90% of this 2.2 trillion was to be allocated to the high speed trains, which, it is estimated would cost the price of a domestic flight to travel on. The rest to go into building an extremely contentious dam in Mae Wong. Nothing about 'upgrading infrastructure'.

[stoli]

Many good points in this article. I cant but help think, if a tree falls in a forest and nobody wants to hear it, does it make a sound.

Thailand is going to be a great place in the future for people who dont like change.

You mean for those that enjoy living in caves? Thailand would be well advised to improve their infrastructure now, rather than later. Is it expensive? Yes. Will it become more expensive by kicking the can down the road? Yes. Will it move them closer to becoming a much better country for its citizens? Yes. Maybe the new alcohol tax is a move to earn more money to pay off some of this debt. Great idea, let the foreigners who drink pay for the upgrades. They (we) are certainly going to enjoy the upgrades. I won't mind paying a little more for items that will improve my life here.

[Briggsy]

If you think fiscal policy is is unsustainable as many here seem to believe, you should keep as little cash as possible in Thailand as the currency may be worth less in relation to other currencies in a couple of years time.

Alternatively, if you must keep cash here, invest it in gold or something other than cash.

[hammered]

The opinion of one person. It is rather badly headlined as "Thai Opinion". The Thai people as a whole can have their say at the next election. Simple. That is how democracy works.

The last bunch actually spent 1.4 trillion on giving people 1000 baht notes in their hands and there was hardly a quibble from all those moaning now. And yet the people voted them out clearly not trusting them to run the country in a way that actually helped the majority. The current opposition after being unceremoniously booted out in this way should learn the lesson and adapt and try to get elected instead of spending all their time throwing tantrums, chairs, insulting the rural poor and locking everything up in a myriad of court cases to prevent any policy being implemented. Thailand needs a viable electable alternative to the current government. Right now they lack one. The history of the initial rise of Thaksin shows it is possible to appeal to the majority and electorally come from virtually nowhere and defeat established parties. It just means finding common ground with the majority. The opposition would be well served by learning form their nemesis and modernising their own archaic regionally hampered party structure although admittedly getting the inbuilt southern executive control to agree to give up their power of controlling the party without consideration for others is going to be hard and beyond a lightweight like Abhisit.

Do you have ANY PROOF at all that the Democrats spent 1.4 Tr baht of giving people 1,000 baht notes or is that the opinion of ONE person, YOU?

If you do then PUBLISH it and then send a copy of ALL of your evidence to the DSI, c/o Tarit.

If you don't then please stop spouting unverified and unprovable crap.

Proof is a good thing to have. Allegations are worthless.

I guess you were not around when everyone who earned under 15K if I remember correctly, was handed a few crisp banknotes under the Democrat administration. It was front page news in every paper. If you want to research it do so. I have better things to than post links for people who dont even know what was widely reported in all local and some external media. The electorate booted out that government. They had never even given them a mandate in the first place. If they do not like this scheme the electorate can likewise boot this lot out.

[Siripon]

The opinion of one person. It is rather badly headlined as "Thai Opinion". The Thai people as a whole can have their say at the next election. Simple. That is how democracy works.

The last bunch actually spent 1.4 trillion on giving people 1000 baht notes in their hands and there was hardly a quibble from all those moaning now. And yet the people voted them out clearly not trusting them to run the country in a way that actually helped the majority. The current opposition after being unceremoniously booted out in this way should learn the lesson and adapt and try to get elected instead of spending all their time throwing tantrums, chairs, insulting the rural poor and locking everything up in a myriad of court cases to prevent any policy being implemented. Thailand needs a viable electable alternative to the current government. Right now they lack one. The history of the initial rise of Thaksin shows it is possible to appeal to the majority and electorally come from virtually nowhere and defeat established parties. It just means finding common ground with the majority. The opposition would be well served by learning form their nemesis and modernising their own archaic regionally hampered party structure although admittedly getting the inbuilt southern executive control to agree to give up their power of controlling the party without consideration for others is going to be hard and beyond a lightweight like Abhisit.

Do you have ANY PROOF at all that the Democrats spent 1.4 Tr baht of giving people 1,000 baht notes or is that the opinion of ONE person, YOU?

If you do then PUBLISH it and then send a copy of ALL of your evidence to the DSI, c/o Tarit.

If you don't then please stop spouting unverified and unprovable crap.

Proof is a good thing to have. Allegations are worthless.

I guess you were not around when everyone who earned under 15K if I remember correctly, was handed a few crisp banknotes under the Democrat administration. It was front page news in every paper. If you want to research it do so. I have better things to than post links for people who dont even know what was widely reported in all local and some external media. The electorate booted out that government. They had never even given them a mandate in the first place. If they do not like this scheme the electorate can likewise boot this lot out.

It will be too late to boot them out Hammered, the debt will take 50 years to pay back. It must be stopped now

There are no details, no environmental impact assessments, no financial viability reports. The high speed train to Issan is only going as far as Korat. Well you can go by car or tour bus to Korat in 3 hours already, who is going to use an expensive train?!

The 2 trillion baht loan bill is an example of financial insanity.