Typhoon Haiyan: Philippines declares state of calamity

[tropo]

The news items showing soldiers armed with machine guns are alarming. Is Philipino society really so violent as to require M60s to prevent looting?

You must have missed a crucial bit of information here.....

There's a whole prison on the loose. The prison in Tacloban was wrecked and all the convicts escaped.

My wife just spoke with her mother - people are terrified of these convicts on the loose. There's reports of rape all over the place... many of these convicts probably haven't seen a girl for years. These guys are having a ball - no police to stop from doing whatever they like.

Yes, those soldiers with machine guns are warranted and welcome... The more the better.

Edited November 16, 2013 by tropo

[tropo]

2 + million in need of food and water.

Have a look at the only medical center in Tacloban:

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2013/11/14/ac-tacloban-hospital-typhoon-overflow.cnn.html

That $2 million the Chinese donated will go a long way then.

The only 2 million figure I caught in your link is that 2 million Filipinos are in desperate and immediate need of food and water, as clearly indicated in the post you quote. I didn't catch anything at all about China in the linked report, nothing. If I missed something kindly let me know.

Chicog made an unrelated, facetious comment about the size of China's donation.

[tropo]

. Is Philipino society really so violent as to require M60s to prevent looting?

I failed to address this rather damning innuendo.

As a public, Filipinos are probably more calm than your countrymen would be if you took away all power, communication, food, water, medicine, hospitals, homes and police...and then set all the prisoner's loose. I'd bet on it. I don't think many Westerners from well off communities would survive the hardship these people are going through.

It only takes one bad person to cause a lot of heartache for many good people.

[Publicus]

2 + million in need of food and water.

Have a look at the only medical center in Tacloban:

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2013/11/14/ac-tacloban-hospital-typhoon-overflow.cnn.html

That $2 million the Chinese donated will go a long way then.

The only 2 million figure I caught in your link is that 2 million Filipinos are in desperate and immediate need of food and water, as clearly indicated in the post you quote. I didn't catch anything at all about China in the linked report, nothing. If I missed something kindly let me know.

Chicog made an unrelated, facetious comment about the size of China's donation.

Thx for the reminder.

The link wuz a pretty straightforward news report. Chicog is pretty much straightforward too.

All the same be assured your post is well taken.

[tropo]

Does anyone here know a reputable relief agency to send money to that would be trustworthy enough to know the money is going to actually get to the people in need?
I have been researching it and it seems the Salvation Army seems to be the best I can come up with so far.
I know when the tsunami hit Thailand, many of my friends and family in the states sent me money and I actually handed it out to folks that I saw their houses destroyed.
I don't know anyone in the Philipines good enough to do that, so gave to the Salvation Army.
If anyone knows a better way, I (and lots of people) would like to know.
I see that the leaders of the Red Cross and similar agencies just make a fortune in salary, so, don't want to add to THAT.

Ideas?

I could distribute aid for you personally, through my family. You'd know exactly where it all went as I'd keep you informed. It would be used to buy food and medicine. Whatever you could provide would be like a drop in the ocean, but at least you'd know you are helping people in need and it's not going to waste... and you'd have direct feedback.

I'm glad you put forward this idea Fiddlehead, because it got me thinking. I'm going to start the ball rolling today. A friend is going in for 5000, so I'm going to donate 5000 today, for a total of 10,000 baht. My mother-in-law in PI will buy the food/aid and I'll have my sister's husband distribute it among the most needy. Hopefully the ATM in Ormoc City will be functioning so I can get this underway asap. The next step is to try to get some donations from my own family. That won't be easy because they're always crying poor. Feeling sorry for the plight of others is one thing, but actually doing something about it is another. Words are cheap.

If you send me your bank account details, copy of passport, address, phone number and birth certificate...I'll send you some dosh.

Only kidding about the passport and birth cert and stuff.....but send bank details if you wish and I'll put a little in to help along.

Thank you for your kind donation. Tomorrow food you've helped us purchase will buy rice and other food such as noodles and fish to hand out to the people most in need in our area. We're starting off with 5 x 50kg sacks of rice, so in total we're going to give food to about 125 people from the first $500 (20,000 PHP) I've sent. Hopefully more will follow soon.

Right now a sack of rice is costing 2600 peso (USD 60). Unfortunately this price is inflated quite a bit from the pre-typhoon 1900 peso per sack. The government has "imposed" a price freeze in the calamity zone but I don't think there's anyone from the government trying or able to enforce this law right now.

If you know of anyone else who wishes to donate, please point them in the right direction. This help feels like a drop in the ocean, but every drop is feeding someone.

[MJP]

Looting has little to do with nationality. Once law and order breaks down, some bad things start to happen.

As seen after Hurricane Katrina, the 'looting' was often people just trying to get supplies to survive. It's not as though the shops are open and a lass is sat at the till.

[Lite Beer]

Relief efforts ramped up

Filipino typhoon victims rush to get relief goods from a US Navy Sea Hawk helicopter in the super typhoon devastated town of Salcedo, Samar island province, Philippines, yesterday.

MANILA: -- As death toll rises to 3,600, Philippine govt identifies site to relocate those displaced by super typhoon

Spearheaded by a US aircraft carrier group, foreign relief efforts have stepped up a gear in storm-devastated Philippines eight days after Super Typhoon Haiyan left thousands dead and millions homeless.

According to the United Nations, death toll as of Friday was about 3,600. In Tacloban City, more than 356,000 evacuees were staying in dirty and cramped evacuation centres in the province after Haiyan triggered tsunami-like waves flattened their homes. Yesterday, the Philippine government identified an eight-hectare relocation site for hundreds of thousands of displaced people.

The lot is owned by the city government of Tacloban, the capital of Leyte province, according to Eduardo Del Rosario, head of the national disaster relief agency.

"We have found a relocation site to put up houses for the displaced," Eduardo Del Rosario, head of the national disaster relief agency, told reporters in Manila. "We will start to level the ground tomorrow."

Philippine Interior Secretary Mar Roxas said in Tacloban City, capital of the worst-hit Leyte province, that trucks carrying supplies had reached 30 out of 40 towns in the province.

Workers with chainsaws cut up toppled trees around the city hall while trucks hauled away bodies and debris. The clearing operations went on late into the night using portable spotlight.

"Our relief effort is progressing, although it's still at a slow pace," Roxas told reporters. "Every day is better than yesterday. There is nothing fast enough in a situation like this because so many were affected and infrastructure damaged."

Volunteers have been called to help repack goods in Manila and other staging areas, such as the nearby province of Cebu.

Residents, hopeful they could rebuild, started cleaning whatever structures were left of their houses after tsunami-like storm surge smashed into Tacloban.

"I grew up here, so it's difficult to just leave," said businessman Roger Camtos, 36, cleaning the grills on the windows of his parents' two-storey house.

The roof was torn off, with only the facade left standing. "We will slowly rebuild this house so we can still come home here," he said.

Nearby, 49-year-old Agapito Nunez removed debris, plywood and other dirt from his two-storey house and piled it on a mound on the roadside.

"I'm watching over the house to make sure that looters will not take any of what was left here," said the father of three, who sent his family to stay with his in-laws in the nearby town of Santa Fe.

Substantial food and medical aid finally began reaching the desperate survivors of the Philippines super typhoon yesterday, but humanitarian groups warned of huge logistical challenges in accessing devastated, remote island communities.

A baby was delivered with help from Israeli army medics and the grateful mother named him Israel.

The United States, which used to rule the Philippines, is by far the greatest contributor to the effort, spearheaded by the giant USS George Washington. In addition to the delivery of relief supplies, US military aircraft have logged nearly 480 flight hours in 186 aircraft sorties, moved nearly 1,200 relief workers into hard-hit Tacloban city and airlifted nearly 2,900 displaced people from the affected areas to date.

Over the last 24 hours, more than 118 tonnes of food, water and shelter items have been delivered to Tacloban, Borongan and Guiuan, the US military said.

The United Nations, which had launched an appeal for US$301 million in relief funding, said on Friday it had so far received $72 million.

Japan has tripled its emergency aid package to more than $30 million and is preparing to send up to 1,000 troops, in what would be the country's biggest foreign deployment since World War II.

The European Union upped its contribution by $7 million yesterday to $20 million.

-- The Nation 2013-11-17

[F430murci]

As the Philippines grapples with the devastating aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan, Filipinos are asking why the country wasnt better prepared to deal with the super storm.

Government officials claim they were ready, broadcasting warnings of a potential 20-foot storm surge on the hour, starting two days before the typhoon hit.

Jerry Yaokasin, Tacloban's vice mayor, told Reuters that "some people just didn't believe us because it was so sunny. Some were even laughing." Many local men reportedly stayed in their homes to protect their belongings from looters.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/16/21477014-why-wasnt-the-philippines-better-prepared-for-the-typhoon-corruption-shoddy-buildings-to-blame?lite

[Scott]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

[F430murci]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

For sure. Not trying to be critical. Just saw story when boarding plane and thought I would post.

[tropo]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

The answer is here:

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/16/21477014-why-wasnt-the-philippines-better-prepared-for-the-typhoon-corruption-shoddy-buildings-to-blame?lite

He's also watched every video clip he could find on TV and YouTube of Super Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most devastating storms ever to hit land. Lilles says he was shocked to see Alfred Romualdez, the mayor of Tacloban – the worst-hit city within the disaster zone – telling the BBC that he and his family decided to ride out the storm in their sea-level beach house.

"What really angers me is that, if the mayor didn't think seriously about evacuating Tacloban himself, I assume he didn't ask his [220,000] people to evacuate either and seek higher ground," Lilles said. He noticed the rolling hills in the background of many of the apocalyptic images. "Why didn't people, especially car owners, drive up the slopes or away from the coast? It must mean they didn't know about the 15-foot tsunami heading their way, or just didn't care."

None of these "excuses" mention that the Philippines gets hit or nearly hit by 20 typhoons per year on average. If you live there you'll be aware of constant typhoon warnings throughout the year. None have ever caused this devastating "storm surge" destruction. We've got 50+ year old trees in our yard which have endured through 50 + years of typhoon warning... but now each and everyone of them has been uprooted or knocked down.

If I'm going to blame anyone, I'll blame the highly paid "weather experts" around the world, but they also didn't know, just as they didn't for the Indian Ocean and Japanese Tsunamis.

If they had used the word "tsunami" instead of "storm surge", many lives would have been saved.

Edited November 17, 2013 by tropo

[Scott]

I came from an area where we have terrible storms -- the most horrific are tornadoes, but they cut a rather narrow path, at least compared to a typhoon. Some bad experiences have taught people to take shelter when told to do so, but the shelters are either in their own home or very close at hand.

Where would all of the people in the are be evacuated to? Would it be able to accommodate all of them?

[hellodolly]

I came from an area where we have terrible storms -- the most horrific are tornadoes, but they cut a rather narrow path, at least compared to a typhoon. Some bad experiences have taught people to take shelter when told to do so, but the shelters are either in their own home or very close at hand.

Where would all of the people in the are be evacuated to? Would it be able to accommodate all of them?

My limited understanding of the area is that the infrastructure would not accommodate them.

[tropo]

I came from an area where we have terrible storms -- the most horrific are tornadoes, but they cut a rather narrow path, at least compared to a typhoon. Some bad experiences have taught people to take shelter when told to do so, but the shelters are either in their own home or very close at hand.

Where would all of the people in the are be evacuated to? Would it be able to accommodate all of them?

A very good question. Tacloban is a flat area of low elevation. Not easy to evacuate nearly 1/4 million people, and that's only Tacloban. There isn't anywhere that that many people could hide and they were more concerned about the wind.

As you said "some bad experiences have taught people to take shelter". This is THE experience that will save a lot of lives in the future.

[tropo]

101 photos speak louder than words:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/16/world/asia/typhoon-haiyan/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

[tropo]

Burying the dead

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/bestoftv/2013/11/15/exp-erin-typhoon-update.cnn.html

[tropo]

Japanese troops return to Tacloban, this time with technology

Mobile x-ray units.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/11/17/13/japan-medics-bring-high-tech-fixes-philippines-typhoon

[lopburi3]

I came from an area where we have terrible storms -- the most horrific are tornadoes, but they cut a rather narrow path, at least compared to a typhoon. Some bad experiences have taught people to take shelter when told to do so, but the shelters are either in their own home or very close at hand.

Where would all of the people in the are be evacuated to? Would it be able to accommodate all of them?

Not only that but in the aftermath of the 7.3 earthquake suspect many of the buildings that could have protected from storm/rain had been destroyed leaving only the grass/tin huts which were no match for the winds. Many people were already living in the open with no protection. This is an area that normally does not get typhoons of any size (until recently).

[NeverSure]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

Is it possible that some people think they need to stay and protect their property, and some just don't believe it will happen?

Given a couple of days warning, the people could have walked to the hills? In New Orleans, only parts got flooded. Downtown didn't and the area around the Superdome didn't. People could have walked to high ground and yet they live 24/7 as much as ten feet below sea level, and always below the level of the Mississippi River. I have walked along the path on top of the levee at the French Quarter and I easily saw that the river was higher than that part of town, and I couldn't believe that people would live that way but they have for about 300 years.

[tropo]

I came from an area where we have terrible storms -- the most horrific are tornadoes, but they cut a rather narrow path, at least compared to a typhoon. Some bad experiences have taught people to take shelter when told to do so, but the shelters are either in their own home or very close at hand.

Where would all of the people in the are be evacuated to? Would it be able to accommodate all of them?

Not only that but in the aftermath of the 7.3 earthquake suspect many of the buildings that could have protected from storm/rain had been destroyed leaving only the grass/tin huts which were no match for the winds. Many people were already living in the open with no protection. This is an area that normally does not get typhoons of any size (until recently).

I can confirm that Nothern Leyte and Samar, where this typhoon hit was not affected by the earthquake last month. Fortunately Bohol, where most of the earthquake damage occurred, was spared from this typhoon. Currently about 5000 people are still living in tents in that area.

[tropo]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

Is it possible that some people think they need to stay and protect their property, and some just don't believe it will happen?

As mentioned in another post above, not just some, but all the people didn't believe it would happen. The Mayor and his family were beachfront when the typhoon hit. This is understandable in a country which gets about 20 typhoon warnings per year on average and has never suffered such destruction from storm surge.

Once again, please consider the recent Indian Ocean and Japanese Tsunamis/earthquakes. Where were the warnings?

Had they mentioned tsunami, a lot of lives could have been spared as they know about tsunamis and the word frightens them. Think about it - does "storm surge" sound like anything dangerous?

[Chicog]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

Is it possible that some people think they need to stay and protect their property, and some just don't believe it will happen?

As mentioned in another post above, not just some, but all the people didn't believe it would happen. The Mayor and his family were beachfront when the typhoon hit. This is understandable in a country which gets about 20 typhoon warnings per year on average and has never suffered such destruction from storm surge.

Once again, please consider the recent Indian Ocean and Japanese Tsunamis/earthquakes. Where were the warnings?

Had they mentioned tsunami, a lot of lives could have been spared as they know about tsunamis and the word frightens them. Think about it - does "storm surge" sound like anything dangerous?

If you talk about the Indian Ocean, the person who could have called the warnings chose not to. I doubt there was the comms. infrastructure to have much effect anyway.

In the case of Japan, warnings were being broadcast constantly within minutes of the quake, but people assumed that their sea defences would protect them - they did not know the scale of the waves.

In this case, at lot of people in these villages did not have the communications infrastructure to be warned. Even if they had, they probably underestimated its power.

I mean come off it, I don't live in the Philippines but I knew it was going to blast Tacloban to bits.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Chicog

[tropo]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

Is it possible that some people think they need to stay and protect their property, and some just don't believe it will happen?

As mentioned in another post above, not just some, but all the people didn't believe it would happen. The Mayor and his family were beachfront when the typhoon hit. This is understandable in a country which gets about 20 typhoon warnings per year on average and has never suffered such destruction from storm surge.

Once again, please consider the recent Indian Ocean and Japanese Tsunamis/earthquakes. Where were the warnings?

Had they mentioned tsunami, a lot of lives could have been spared as they know about tsunamis and the word frightens them. Think about it - does "storm surge" sound like anything dangerous?

If you talk about the Indian Ocean, the person who could have called the warnings chose not to. I doubt there was the comms. infrastructure to have much effect anyway.

In the case of Japan, warnings were being broadcast constantly within minutes of the quake, but people assumed that their sea defences would protect them - they did not know the scale of the waves.

In this case, at lot of people in these villages did not have the communications infrastructure to be warned. Even if they had, they probably underestimated its power.

I mean come off it, I don't live in the Philippines but I knew it was going to blast Tacloban to bits.

Japan - "they did not know the scale of the waves" you say. Bingo, Same in Tacloban and the north coast of Leyte.

I can assure you that the communications infrastructure of the Philippines is adequate to handle typhoon and tsunami warnings. Everyone in Tacloban and down the coast knew a super typhoon was on its way. News travels as fast as lightening on those islands. Believe it or not they have Internet, cell phones and TV's. (not anymore)

You knew that Tacloban was going to be obliterated by a storm surge? You're one of the few. Even the mayor was beach front. If I knew I would have flown there to tell them. As it happens people were prepared for strong winds, not a mini-tsumani.

Come off it,.... does "storm surge" sound catastrophic? It doesn't to me and most people who hear it... including all the residents of Tacloban.

I know I'm repeating myself, but if they'd screamed "tsunami" everyone would have run for the hills.

Edited November 17, 2013 by tropo

[folium]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

Is it possible that some people think they need to stay and protect their property, and some just don't believe it will happen?

As mentioned in another post above, not just some, but all the people didn't believe it would happen. The Mayor and his family were beachfront when the typhoon hit. This is understandable in a country which gets about 20 typhoon warnings per year on average and has never suffered such destruction from storm surge.

Once again, please consider the recent Indian Ocean and Japanese Tsunamis/earthquakes. Where were the warnings?

Had they mentioned tsunami, a lot of lives could have been spared as they know about tsunamis and the word frightens them. Think about it - does "storm surge" sound like anything dangerous?

Storm or tidal surges are fairly well known and the article below is a very detailed and well researched piece on the effects of tropical cyclones.

Hurricane Camille in 1969 generated 25-foot storm surges, and these caused most of the 256 deaths. Now most deaths in the USA during tropical cyclones are wind related and often more people die after the impact than during it (see the link below)

The worst two tropical cyclone events ever were both in Bangladesh in 1970 (500,000+ deaths) and 1991 (150,000 deaths). Again most deaths were due to storm surges. Post 1991 an early warning system was put in place using feeds from NASA and NOAA satellites, 2500 storm shelters were built, afforestation in coastal areas was implemented, and 32,000 trained to coordinate evacuation and initial response to tropical cyclones.

Hazard/risk perception is key. Sadly while some people may see fairly regular extreme events such as tropical cyclones their perception of risk is actually reduced by multiple events that result in a "miss". Tragically it takes a "hit" to really change perceptions and get changes in place. This we will now see occurring in the Philippines. The Thames Barrier in London and the massive defence works in Holland's Delta Works were a direct consequence of the 1953 storm surge in the North Sea that killed 2551 people.

Re tsunamis, warning systems are much harder to implement, given the fact that earthquakes cannot be predicted (tropical cyclones normally build up over days or even weeks and can be tracked by satellite), and if the quake is close onshore it gives precious little time for a response (as happened in Japan in 2011 and with the Banda Aceh area in 2004). The lack of warning to areas around the Indian Ocean (Sri Lanka, Thailand etc) was tragic but has now been addressed to some degree by the implementation of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System in 2006 with its chain of seismic stations and DART buoys.

http://epirev.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/1/21.full

"Prior to the implementation of warning, evacuation, and shelter systems, drowning from storm surge accounted for an estimated 90 percent of cyclone-attributable mortality. High-density settlement in low-lying areas with poor housing construction amplifies risks in nations such as Bangladesh and the Philippines, where storm surge remains the major direct cause of mortality following tropical cyclones".

[Scott]

A lot of places aren't prepared for such storms. There are a lot of people that for various reasons simply can't leave easily. Some have no where to go and no transport to get anywhere. Some families have members who are very sick, elderly or incapacitated. Add to that the fact that a lot of people simply don't exercise the best of judgment and you have a dangerous situation.

New Orleans had a similar situation. A lot of poorer people who didn't have a car to drive further inland.

Is it possible that some people think they need to stay and protect their property, and some just don't believe it will happen?

Given a couple of days warning, the people could have walked to the hills? In New Orleans, only parts got flooded. Downtown didn't and the area around the Superdome didn't. People could have walked to high ground and yet they live 24/7 as much as ten feet below sea level, and always below the level of the Mississippi River. I have walked along the path on top of the levee at the French Quarter and I easily saw that the river was higher than that part of town, and I couldn't believe that people would live that way but they have for about 300 years.

Probably. I will tell one of my staff who lost his nephew and his grandmother that is what they should have done. The remainder of the family headed out of the area, but never did make it to their destination, but they were far in land. The grandmother has had heart issues, she is diabetic and has had one leg amputated. She was unable to make the arduous journey, since part of it was on foot.

I suppose they could have just locked her in a room and hoped for the best. They may still have the nephew, but there wasn't much that was going to ever save grandma.

Do you honestly believe that all of the people who stay are young, healthy people who just make bad decisions? Do you think the prison officials that apparently didn't evacuate the prisoners to a secure location -- and they are gov't officials, exercised good judgment?

[tropo]

"Prior to the implementation of warning, evacuation, and shelter systems, drowning from storm surge accounted for an estimated 90 percent of cyclone-attributable mortality. High-density settlement in low-lying areas with poor housing construction amplifies risks in nations such as Bangladesh and the Philippines, where storm surge remains the major direct cause of mortality following tropical cyclones".

This maybe true in Bangladesh because 150 million, nearly the entire population live at or near sea level. Do you have any stats on typhoon related storm surge deaths in the Philippines? I really would be interested to see them.

Here's some good info on why the storm surge in Tacloban Bay was so destructive:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/11/inside-the-staggering-death-toll-from-haiyan-and-other-southeast-asia-typhoons/

Edited November 17, 2013 by tropo

[Chicog]

Super Typhoon Haiyan Could Be One Of The Strongest Storms In World History

Posted: 11/07/2013 3:59 pm EST | Updated: 11/11/2013 4:59 pm EST

Super Typhoon Haiyan — which is one of the strongest storms in world history based on maximum windspeed — is about to plow through the Central Philippines , producing a potentially deadly storm surge and dumping heavy rainfall that could cause widespread flooding. The densely populated city of Manila, home to 12 million, is in the storm’s path, although it is predicted to escape the worst of the winds and storm surge .

And call me Mr. Not-so-fussy but this seems pretty unequivocal to me:

After hitting the Leyte province, the Philippines’ Department of Science and Technology expects the storm to traverse the central Philippines from Biliran to Busuanga before passing into the West Philippine Sea. The Department is warning coastal residents to expect storm surges “which may reach up to 7-meter (23 feet) wave height,” along with flooding and mudslides.

All of the warnings seemed to be there. I guess people never think it will happen to them.

What do I know, there are floods in Saudi Arabia and torrential rain and high winds are expected in the peninsula this week.

[tropo]

Super Typhoon Haiyan Could Be One Of The Strongest Storms In World History

Posted: 11/07/2013 3:59 pm EST | Updated: 11/11/2013 4:59 pm EST

Super Typhoon Haiyan — which is one of the strongest storms in world history based on maximum windspeed — is about to plow through the Central Philippines , producing a potentially deadly storm surge and dumping heavy rainfall that could cause widespread flooding. The densely populated city of Manila, home to 12 million, is in the storm’s path, although it is predicted to escape the worst of the winds and storm surge .

And call me Mr. Not-so-fussy but this seems pretty unequivocal to me:

There's a pretty good example of inaccurate predictions right there. The typhoon missed Manila - which, ironically is good luck.

The deadly storm surge was a freak storm surge created by the funnel effect of Tacloban Bay combined with the angle it came in at.

It was a deadly combination of factors.

Apart from you, I don't think too many predicted the "obliteration" of Tacloban. The warnings weren't strong enough and people felt they could ride it out as they have done for countless decades.

Just to give you an idea of how freaky this storm was, in our yard every single tree was uprooted. These trees have been standing proud for over 50 years. If there ever was a deadly storm surge in Tacloban, no one is old enough to recall it. Our house was exactly 8km north from the eye's dead centre. They are calling it the "first wind" and "second wind" as the eye passed over. Our house made it through the "first wind", but the second wind tore our roof off. Of course these were be winds in the exact opposite direction as the opposite side of the eye passed over. We didn't stand a chance.

As far as I know, a storm surge did not destroy Guiuan, the first point of land contact. That was all wind damage.

Also of note, I was watching the storm surge height predictions, and they predicted the storm surge at Ormoc City was the highest at 5.2m... yet no storm surge affected the city as far as I've seen in photos. There were no people washed out to sea. There was no water in the streets. The SuperCat terminal is business as usual too and has been since a day or two after the typhoon.

Just to highlight the fact that no one saw it coming, I remember seeing video footage of a (foreign) reporter standing in the city streets of Tacloban as the typhoon hit. They were surprised to see water rising in the streets.

Edited November 17, 2013 by tropo

[Chicog]

I honestly don't know what you read of what I posted. It seems pretty black and white.

"Strongest storms in history based on windspeed"

"Storm Surges... up to 23 feet".

And the "inaccurate prediction" said that "Manila would miss the worst of the winds and the storm surge".

Did any of these not happen then?

The results of this are as predictable as when a typhoon hits Bangladesh.

You have all these people living on the coast in makeshift, jerry-built houses.

How else is it likely to turn out?

The international press were reporting about Tacloban specifically and the warnings being issued to its residents.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Chicog

[Scott]

You cannot use logic and reasoning to the human conditions. If you want people to evacuate, then you must have shelters that are close by. People must be able to get back to their homes as soon as the crisis is over.

Humans are ruled by emotion more than logic and reason.