China to ease one-child policy

[webfact]

China to ease one-child policy
By English News

BEIJING, Nov 16 (Xinhua) -- China will loosen its decades-long one-child population policy, allowing couples to have two children if one of them is an only child, according to a key decision issued on Friday by the Communist Party of China (CPC).

China will implement this new policy while adhering to the basic state policy of family planning, according to the decision on major issues concerning comprehensively deepening reforms, which was approved at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee held from Nov. 9 to 12 in Beijing.

The birth policy will be adjusted and improved step by step to promote "long-term balanced development of the population in China," it said.

Relaxing the policy will keep China's birth rate at a stable level, said Guo Zhenwei, a family-planning official with the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

To ensure coordinated economic and social development, the population size for China should be kept at about 1.5 billion, said Guo, citing the results of a study sponsored by the State Council, China's cabinet.

China should keep its total fertility rate at around 1.8, and the current rate is between 1.5 to 1.6, allowing the country to maneuver its population policy, according to Guo.

Wu Cangping, an adviser with the China Population Association, believed the change in China's family planning policy will unlikely lead to a baby boom because of Chinese parents' traditional preference for more children has changed due to rapid social progress in the country.

The change in policy was met with a warm response.

Many Internet users welcomed the change while others said they would have a second thought when giving birth to a second child because of high living costs.

An Internet user identified herself as "Hikaruhuang" hailed the reform as "very good." She said her child would have a companion and less pressure in elder care.

China's family planning policy was first introduced in the late 1970s to rein in the surging population by limiting most urban couples to one child and most rural couples to two children, if the first child born was a girl.

One-child families are entitled to bonuses and other benefits. Official statistics show such families account for 37.5 percent of China's more than 1.3 billion population.

The policy was later relaxed, with its current form stipulating that both parents must be only children if they are to have a second child.

Since its implementation, it is estimated the policy has resulted in a reduction of some 400 million people in China.

However, the policy has also been blamed for generating a number of social problems.

China's labor force, at about 940 million, decreased by 3.45 million year on year in 2012, marking the first "absolute decrease." The labor force is estimated to decrease by about 29 million over the current decade.

Meanwhile, the country's growing elderly population aged 60 and over, which accounted for 14.3 percent of the total currently, is forecast to exceed one third of the population in 2050.

Gender imbalance is another side effect of the one-child policy. Chinese parents' preference for sons led to the abortion of female foetuses due to the policy.

About 118 boys are born for every 100 girls in 2012, higher than the normal ratio of 103 to 107 boys for every 100 girls. Millions of Chinese men will be unable to find wives in 2030.

Economists say the one-child policy is also a cause for the high savings rate among Chinese people.

"The change in the family planning policy will certainly affect China's one-child generation -- some of whom have already become parents. It will help them enjoy a better future," wrote an Internet user called herself "shanma123." (Xinhua)

-- TNA 2013-11-16

[thaibeachlovers]

It's insane. The world is already overpopulated, and more countries need to start a one child policy ( I can dream, can't I? ).

If it's just a matter of workers, there are around 70 million refugees that could be used for that.

The gender imbalance should be solved by enforcing the law, not allowing people to breed more mouths, and if millions of men won't be able to find wives, that's a good thing, as it will really reduce the population. Same thing is happening in India, as a result of selective abortions.

[Chicog]

They've got 30 million more men than women, so presumably this will increase the imbalance.

[folium]

It's insane. The world is already overpopulated, and more countries need to start a one child policy ( I can dream, can't I? ).

If it's just a matter of workers, there are around 70 million refugees that could be used for that.

The gender imbalance should be solved by enforcing the law, not allowing people to breed more mouths, and if millions of men won't be able to find wives, that's a good thing, as it will really reduce the population. Same thing is happening in India, as a result of selective abortions.

Without wishing to be too nerdy, "overpopulation" is not just to do with the total number of people on this planet. Overpopulation is the state when the demands of the population exceeds the ability of the planet (given current technology) to match those demands. This is the whole Malthusian dilemma which to date mankind has ducked via innovation and adaptation. The big question comes in terms of how many times can we pull off this trick?

Gender imbalances are a direct result of cultural preference for male babies plus the easy access to ultrasounds which enables selective abortions. This is an issue across Asia, afecting both rich and poor, and extends at its worse into the Caucasus nations, both Muslim and Christian.

Ultimately the imbalance should right itself as scarcity will drive up the value of women, but in the meantime the trafficking of women meets some of the demand.

Ironically China is facing far less of a problem than places such as Japan, Italy and Russia (and S.Korea soon) where populations are already shrinking. China has a couple of decades (like Thailand) before its population starts to decrease.

[malcyx]

I have visited China a few times ..

I had a discussion with Chinese lady about one baby rule .

"you can have two babies but you pay government 100,000 to have the second , you must both

have good jobs " ..

Just thought id say coz I heard it straight from my friend.. The reason the topic came up was coz they are just about to get married and have a baby soon after ..

They are in Shanghai , which could have different rules .( like the facebook one lol )

They wouldn't talk much about it ..

[Publicus]

I have visited China a few times ..

I had a discussion with Chinese lady about one baby rule .

"you can have two babies but you pay government 100,000 to have the second , you must both

have good jobs " ..

Just thought id say coz I heard it straight from my friend.. The reason the topic came up was coz they are just about to get married and have a baby soon after ..

They are in Shanghai , which could have different rules .( like the facebook one lol )

They wouldn't talk much about it ..

Yeah, I was four years living and working in the CCP-PRC so I had a lot of contact with the One Child Policy (OCP).

Yes, the better off urban middle class can have a second child if it's willing to pay the stiff fine, which is consistent with the number you cite, Yuan/RMB 100,000 give or take a few grand (mostly give). The couple obviously has to be loaded with money, which may or may not mean both work. There are lotsa PRChinese ricewinners who single-handedly haul in a million yuan a year or 700,000 yuan, so 100,000 for a second kid is almost pocket change.

Rural couples, undereducated and of low socioeconomic status, also can have a second child if they can convince the state one is needed for economic hardship reasons. Another mouth to feed becomes free slave labor after only several relatively short years. For this reason PRChinese kids are free to leave school permanently after age 14. But in the rural areas they anyway don't attend school much and there aren't many truant officers - if any - so mom and pop get the slave labor in short order.

One thing sociologists (East or West, or both) would have a field day with if the CCP would let them is the effect of the OCP on the personality of the PRChina. It didn't take me long to be able to almost always identify the one child students in my classes because of their distinctive personality, or lack of one. Compared to students from two child families, the one child offspring is more quiet, reserved, withdrawn, distant, inward oriented, lonesome and lonely, set apart from peers, sometimes can be seen talking to him/her self even in public in an obvious slipup due to habits of isolated private personal behavior.

The PRChinese only child is minimally socialized, if that much, and is redefining the PRChinese personality heavily toward a general anomie. One only child university student I got to know well told me he was still ticked off at his parents because they never would let him have a dog for a companion of sorts.

The lonely crowd.

[LawrenceChee]

Sorry to have disappeared for a while....while some boast to understand the Chinese population and its policies in a short span stay of a few years, there are others like myself who are still exploring different region for opportuities and business growth and trying my best to understand it better.

I find it extremely disrespectful to call this slavery as quoted by one of the posters. Certainly a lack of opportunity is a more accurate description why some chose a manual labor position vs perhaps an urban city career.

And yet as many of us moderates who have spent a lot of time in Asia understand, these is an honest slice of the population who support their families, work really hard and deserve our every respect.

I see them every day in China, Thailand where I call my second home and I would sudder at the thought of telling them they have borne their children into slavery. In Asia, there is a stotic understanding of life where if you are fit and willing to work, there will be a dignity of a job waiting for you hard as it may be in life...one can only look at the positives and smile.

Indeed in comparing the recent unfortunate incident of the typhoon in Philippines where it has hit some of its poorest region, it's amazing how the temperance of tolerance prevails vs rampant unlawfulness found in some societies or events in super d**e. I guess this is called self respect.

An urban warrior is not any happier than the local worker in Makro....they all have different problems and all have different priorities in life on what counts as happiness

Good on anyone who has self respect and is contented with his lot of what he has.

[LawrenceChee]

From a policy perspective, this is a good change in policy that China is taking now that it has matured its global footprint and indeed has urban cities that didnt exist before and is facing the urban growth issues of cities and countries.

[boomerangutang]

Interesting that we're witnessing 'birth-engineering' in these times, and how it's regulated/manifesting. At least Chinese officials are cognizant of overpopulation issues, and are trying to make regulations to deal with it. That's more than, let's say, Nigeria or Philippines or Indonesia are doing - and those countries have higher population densities than China.

Overpopulation will become the biggest issue of the 21st Century, along with environmental degradation. They go hand-in-hand.

Whenever I hear worries about the economics of less births, such as 'not enough youngsters in the workforce to support seniors' I cringe a bit. I know there's some legitimacy in that argument, but to me: environmental protection trumps economic concerns.

Meanwhile, in the US, there are test-tube babies coming forth every day. One or two at a time/ per couple, ok, - but because of the procedures, there are sometimes up to six babies/per couple - allowed to go full term.

[rotary]

It's insane. The world is already overpopulated, and more countries need to start a one child policy ( I can dream, can't I? ).

If it's just a matter of workers, there are around 70 million refugees that could be used for that.

The gender imbalance should be solved by enforcing the law, not allowing people to breed more mouths, and if millions of men won't be able to find wives, that's a good thing, as it will really reduce the population. Same thing is happening in India, as a result of selective abortions.

Great post, I could not agree more.

[itsrebel]

It is a move in the wrong direction, IMO. I am not condoning the execution of the OCP over the years, but the policy was a step in the right direction. If anything, we need more and more laws not just to limit the population growth but also who gets to have children and who doesn't.

I don't think it will be wrong to say that majority of the people are not qualified to raise a child (taking all factors into account - financial, psychological, social etc.). One should be required to get a licence to be able to have a child so that the child in question gets the right upbringing, which many don't. Why is it a fundamental right to have a child is beyond me.

[boomerangutang]

It's insane. The world is already overpopulated, and more countries need to start a one child policy ( I can dream, can't I? ).

If it's just a matter of workers, there are around 70 million refugees that could be used for that.

The gender imbalance should be solved by enforcing the law, not allowing people to breed more mouths, and if millions of men won't be able to find wives, that's a good thing, as it will really reduce the population. Same thing is happening in India, as a result of selective abortions.

Great post, I could not agree more.

Troubles can arise, when there are hordes of young testosterone-riven men who can not readily find wives or g.f's. One manifestation, is Middle East. It's doubtful there would be as much strife and anger there, if the young men had easier access to wives and g.f's Another example: Central regions of Africa, where there is scarcely a girl over 17 years old who hasn't been raped at least once.

Future scenario: bands of horny/frustrated men, coming from China to Thailand, looking for young women. Ok, I can picture some of the responses to that ('it's already happening with farang men coming to Thailand....'). Go ahead, fire away.

It is a move in the wrong direction, IMO. I am not condoning the execution of the OCP over the years, but the policy was a step in the right direction. If anything, we need more and more laws not just to limit the population growth but also who gets to have children and who doesn't.

I don't think it will be wrong to say that majority of the people are not qualified to raise a child (taking all factors into account - financial, psychological, social etc.). One should be required to get a licence to be able to have a child so that the child in question gets the right upbringing, which many don't. Why is it a fundamental right to have a child is beyond me.

Interesting that you mention "....qualified to raise a child." Unfortunately, there have never been such restrictions in the history of mankind. I have personal friends from the US who, when they tell me true stories of their upbringing, leave me aghast at how utterly awful (and criminally abusive) their parents were. And the US is probably comparatively better than many other regions. I can't think of any animals that are remotely as poor at parenting, than humans.

[jackr]

the population size for China should be kept at about 1.5 billion

How's about a new policy of substituting that 'b' for an 'm'?

[Publicus]

It is a move in the wrong direction, IMO. I am not condoning the execution of the OCP over the years, but the policy was a step in the right direction. If anything, we need more and more laws not just to limit the population growth but also who gets to have children and who doesn't.

I don't think it will be wrong to say that majority of the people are not qualified to raise a child (taking all factors into account - financial, psychological, social etc.). One should be required to get a licence to be able to have a child so that the child in question gets the right upbringing, which many don't. Why is it a fundamental right to have a child is beyond me.

Get a license from the government to have a child?!

That's anti-rational, anti democratic, so I guess it would suit the CCP just fine.

And unfortunately, dangerously to individual liberty and intelligence, perhaps some others of a like mind.

[Publicus]

Sorry to have disappeared for a while...<<<snip>>>

No problem.

[folium]

Sorry to have disappeared for a while...<<<snip>>>

No problem.

And now in my own words...

China's One Child Policy has been a classic example of too much, too late and with all sorts of (largely negative) unforeseen consequences.

Comparing the TFR (Total Fertility Rate, number of women born per woman) of China, Bangladesh and Thailand is illuminating:

1960: Thailand 6.2 China 5.5 Bangladesh 6.7 (peaking at 7.0 in 1970)

2011: Thailand 1.6 China 1.6 Bangladesh 2.5

In other words Thailand, starting from a higher level, has reached a similar level of fertility rates today to China without any need of a One Child Policy. Also it seems that "communists", buddhists and muslims are all equally capable of doing the right thing when it comes to population growth or lack of!

The answer is largely a result of 4 factors:

economic development

urbanization

enhances female education/status/job opportunities

serious fall in infant mortality (deaths before aged 1)

China's TFR peaked in 1966/67 at 5.9, had fallen to 4.2 by 1974 when the wen, xi shao (later, longer, fewer) anti-natalist programme was introduced, and was at 2.6 in 1979 when OCP was introduced.

The unnecessary role of OCP is highlighted in this link:

The field of demographics is always faced with confusion and half-truths. Have a go at this little quiz and see if you can do better than the chimpanzee which would score 4.5/9. Most people (especially the allegedly well-educated) seem to really struggle:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24836917

[Publicus]

Sorry to have disappeared for a while....while some boast to understand the Chinese population and its policies in a short span stay of a few years, there are others like myself who are still exploring different region for opportuities and business growth and trying my best to understand it better.

I find it extremely disrespectful to call this slavery as quoted by one of the posters. Certainly a lack of opportunity is a more accurate description why some chose a manual labor position vs perhaps an urban city career.

And yet as many of us moderates who have spent a lot of time in Asia understand, these is an honest slice of the population who support their families, work really hard and deserve our every respect.

I see them every day in China, Thailand where I call my second home and I would sudder at the thought of telling them they have borne their children into slavery. In Asia, there is a stotic understanding of life where if you are fit and willing to work, there will be a dignity of a job waiting for you hard as it may be in life...one can only look at the positives and smile.

Indeed in comparing the recent unfortunate incident of the typhoon in Philippines where it has hit some of its poorest region, it's amazing how the temperance of tolerance prevails vs rampant unlawfulness found in some societies or events in super d**e. I guess this is called self respect.

An urban warrior is not any happier than the local worker in Makro....they all have different problems and all have different priorities in life on what counts as happiness

Good on anyone who has self respect and is contented with his lot of what he has.

Writing during his time of the mid-19th century and earlier, Mark Twain stated that, "East is East and West is West and nee'r the twain shall meet." That could well have been the view of his time, which would be understandable in the contemporary globalized world. More recently neither East nor West are so mysterious or unknown to one another as each had been prior to the Age of IT and the era of globalization, if not somewhat before.

And some have been abroad in this region for up to 15 years while others have been here longer, which takes one well beyond the introductory stages to the region, its peoples, customs, values, norms, mores, ways. A foreign place remains foreign, but better known and comprehended, more accessible than even 50 years ago.

People who can't recognize that can't understand or comprehend it either, which would leave them self-contented and complacent in their pov. And that could well explain how their societies, civilizations and awareness were left behind by the development of the modern world, leaving the previously contented having to hustle to catch up from being left far behind.

Engaging in child labor and, worse, exploiting it, is immoral and illegal where I come from irrespective of who might be doing it. Others don't come from the same place as I do, which is unfortunate for the exploited children and for the societies they are born into and raised by.

Being contented leads to complacency which leads to no good, and practicing child labor is offensive and destructive. These are matters of values and value judgements which unavoidably must be made and rendered.

Lawrence Chee also said,

"From a policy perspective, this is a good change in policy that China is taking now that it has matured its global footprint and indeed has urban cities that didnt exist before and is facing the urban growth issues of cities and countries."

To which I state unequivocally the CCP's urban policy for the PRC is a disaster which the Boyz in Beijing need to address comprehensively.

The CCP policymakers in Beijing have been pursuing the "superblock" Soviet Union concept and practice of urban development, which shows the Boyz in Beijing have learned nothing of the catastrophic Soviet experience. Apartment complexes go up but they are 20 km or as many as 40 km from retail outlets to which people must drive to buy necessities. They travel on huge, broad overbuilt superhighways and add to pollution problems besides.

The CCP needs to completely reform its Hukou system that effectively requires PRC citizens to have a domestic passport to change their place of residence. The long practiced Hukou system has either kept rural residents in their rural poverty or it has forced them to live on the margins of urban areas, unregistered with the authorities, i.e., ineligible for ordinary services such as medical care, education of their children and all else that the registered residents can access.

But reforming the Hukou registration system is not enough. The Boyz in Beijing must institute land reform both in rural and urban areas. The CCP must also address the severe debt problem municipal governments have throughout the PRC so that the additional services can be provided if the Hukou system is abolished or significantly reformed. The same is true of the heavily indebted provincial governments which also are hard pressed to provide even basic public services to the public.

Changing the one child policy will not significantly change the birth rate patterms of the past 30 years, which have been steadily and radically declining. No matter, however, as the CCP-PRC still has l.3 billion people to house in a livable environment and soon will have 1.5 billion due to the changes.

Further, creating new and more mega-populated metro areas throughout the country only allows the historical patters of China to continue and to magnify, i.e., regionalism by which municipal and county leaders develop their own centers of power distant and apart from Beijing. It's the old Chinese adage, "The mountains are high and the emperor is far away." And while the new emperors in business suits in Beijing remain over the mountains and far away, the present day warlords in their blue business suits will play, which is why Bo Jilai got life in prison - as if that is going to change China's historical patters of regional centers of economic and political power at the expense of the central authority (the CCP).

(Note: The poem cited was written by Rudyard Kilpling)

[folium]

Talking of the need for reform in OCP brings one on to the topic of vested interests and corruption.

Again viewing China as the font of all evil may not be wholly accurate:

A Chinese bureaucrat, an Indian bureaucrat and an African bureaucrat walk into a bar. They’ve known each other for years, having met every year at UN conferences, and they’ve become friends.

But, talking over drinks, they realise that they’ve only ever met at conferences. So the Chinese bureaucrat suggests that after the next one, in Beijing, they come to his house to relax for a few days.

They all agree, and when the next conference ends, they set off. They get a plane at Beijing’s airport, fly to a provincial city and speed off down a pristine six-lane highway to a large house in the suburbs.

"This is a really nice house," the African bureaucrat says. "How did you afford it on your government salary?"

"Well, did you see that new highway we drove on? I just took some money from the project and spent it on the house."

The other bureaucrats nod, obviously impressed. For the next few days the three men have a wonderful time, and agree to meet again after the next summit, this time at the Indian bureaucrat’s house.

A year goes by, the conference ends and they set off. They fly from the airport in Delhi to a little provincial town. Then they jolt down a long, potholed road until they get to a large mansion.

The Chinese bureaucrat, obviously impressed, asks how the Indian bureaucrat could have afforded it. The Indian bureaucrat replies, "Well, did you see that highway we drove on? I just took some money out of the project and spent it on the house."

A year later they are in Africa, and they all agree to head to the African bureaucrat’s house. They go to the airport, and fly to a smaller airport in the middle of the jungle. From there they board a helicopter and fly over a pristine jungle to a large palace surrounded by military guards. They look out over trees as far as the eye can see.

The Indian and Chinese bureaucrats are amazed, and they are both eager to know how he managed to afford such a palace.

"Well, did you see that highway we drove on?" the African bureaucrat asks.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/feastandfamine/2013/09/corruption-and-stereotypes

[JoeThePoster]

Has TAT revised its tourist target yet?

[LawrenceChee]

Ah I think it has finally popped in such a long commentary that people are starting to understand the scale of the decisions the CCP has to make for such a big population without affecting itself, the rest of the world and pissing its own folks off.

And after so many tries on so many postings...for the last time...this is the correct spelling of the guy that got a life sentence.

It's Bo Xi Lai. Cut and copy this whenever there is a need to quote him.

Accuracy is important as many variations of a Chinese name actually exist....and the next stinky tofu seller could well be Bo Jilai and we dont want to haul his ass into jail.

[Publicus]

Ah I think it has finally popped in such a long commentary that people are starting to understand the scale of the decisions the CCP has to make for such a big population without affecting itself, the rest of the world and pissing its own folks off.

And after so many tries on so many postings...for the last time...this is the correct spelling of the guy that got a life sentence.

It's Bo Xi Lai. Cut and copy this whenever there is a need to quote him.

Accuracy is important as many variations of a Chinese name actually exist....and the next stinky tofu seller could well be Bo Jilai and we dont want to haul his ass into jail.

Thx ha ha for calling the Anglicization to my attention as I know I repeatedly mangle the three-sound Chinese names (three-sound given names being the rule in Thailand). Some of my PRChinese friends, when they got enough beers in them, used to tell me outright that English speaking peoples have simple names because we're simple minded. I however always let such simple minded comments go by the boards by laffing at their peculiar Chinese logic.

You raise a vital point 99% of the global population have no idea of, which is the great number of spoken Chinese languages that always have existed in China up to the present. You of course well know this fact and reality.

I found that the vastness of China has led to a vast diversity of spoken Chinese languages - not dialects, but of Chinese languages. There are myriad spoken Chinese languages that have different vocabulary than other Chinese languages, different phonics and systems of phonics, different idioms and the like, which makes them different spoken Chinese languages rather than dialects of a single Chinese language.

During the first six or so months I was in the PRC I remarked how 99% of people knew no English, from retailers and retail employees to taxi drivers to businessmen to government officials etc etc. Then I found out how few PRChinese know a common Chinese language. There's Putonghua (Mandarin), Cantonese, Chaosunhua - Ethnologue documents more than 200 separate spoken Chinese languages throughout China, most of them having several dialects to each.

The consequence is that four Chinese In a room from the four geographic regions of China can't communicate with each other, at least verbally. They'll have better fortune communicating by using Chinese characters on paper, which I found to be my best hope also in trying to communicate.

So the CCP is trying to resolve this by making Putonghua (the "common language") to be the, well, common language of all PRChinese. Only 53% have Putonghua - Mandarin - as their native language. I found that many PRChinese who have to learn Putonghua don't always do a good job of it either.

Some of my PRChinese friends and colleagues used to take pride in telling me they spoke five languages - of Chinese. During my several years in Guangzhou near Hong Kong (as you know) I found people who'd migrated to GZ had to learn to speak Cantonese because they could not communicate using their own spoken native Chinese language from wherever it was they were born and raised.

So an increase of two-child families means an increase of speakers of the many different Chinese languages. On the bright side, most second children will be born in urban areas and they will also learn Putonghua, which by standardizing communication will be good for the Chinese and for China.

(Cheerfully the CCP won't be there much longer.)

And welcome back.

[boomerangutang]

If Chinese leadership really wants to good for, not only the Chinese people, but people and other species outside of China, they should {A} first get a good dose of common sense {B} get a big hit of wisdom {C} Tune in to compassion and then {D} hold a grand symposium at Tiennamin Square to declare the following:

>>> Boys should no longer be favored over girls. Girls should be cherished and given education/employment opportunities on same levels as boys.

>>> You know all those animal parts which your grandparents think can stiffen mens' hard-ons? Well, they don't work any better than dog bone. Instead, they speed the permanent demise of some of the most majestic animals on the planet. Anyone convicted of buying or marketing any endangered animal parts will be fined and jailed.

>>> free condoms, for anyone, any age, no questions asked.

[Scott]

An off-topic, inflammatory post and reply have been deleted.

[Publicus]

If Chinese leadership really wants to good for, not only the Chinese people, but people and other species outside of China, they should {A} first get a good dose of common sense {B} get a big hit of wisdom {C} Tune in to compassion and then {D} hold a grand symposium at Tiennamin Square to declare the following:

>>> Boys should no longer be favored over girls. Girls should be cherished and given education/employment opportunities on same levels as boys.

>>> You know all those animal parts which your grandparents think can stiffen mens' hard-ons? Well, they don't work any better than dog bone. Instead, they speed the permanent demise of some of the most majestic animals on the planet. Anyone convicted of buying or marketing any endangered animal parts will be fined and jailed.

>>> free condoms, for anyone, any age, no questions asked.

And "family planning" in the CCP-PRC has to consist of fewer forced or socially obligated abortions of female fetuses and more actual and literal planning.

The many "family planning" storefront centers throughout the CCP-PRC that are run by the CCP offer little other than mass line (party line) lectures and speeches, which is why they're almost always empty of actual PRChinese people, whether married or what we call engaged.

[LawrenceChee]

I would say the following has already happened :

Boys and girls are all valued in Chinese families these days. In rural areas yes boys still get a tad of a favor but it's not different from the western societies. If you want to see go getter women with equal opportunities, just visit any of the coastal cities and see the entrepreneun flair they have. they easily match the boys and make us look like wimps.

Animal protection agree ! You have my full support...eating anything other than the norm is really cruel. You get my vote not that it will happen anytime soon

The common sense bit is slowly biting in...you have to forgive them after all they are a communist state and these things take time and is slower than the western states with full democracy.

Fo compassion, forget about the governments of the world...hit the local streets like you usually do in any city...you will find aplenty

[Water Buffalo]

I personally agree with China (maybe the only time i have ever said that)

People shouldn't be allowed to reproduce the way we do. The higher the population density, the higher the poverty rate.

One child is plenty.

Imagine the world in about 8 generations if every two people only made one child. Let's do the math on that......

Mr Condom had the right idea during his campaign in Thailand. He did a lot of good for the country. We need more like him.

[NxaiPan]

I personally agree with China (maybe the only time i have ever said that)

People shouldn't be allowed to reproduce the way we do. The higher the population density, the higher the poverty rate.

One child is plenty.

Imagine the world in about 8 generations if every two people only made one child. Let's do the math on that......

Mr Condom had the right idea during his campaign in Thailand. He did a lot of good for the country. We need more like him.

The average number of babies born per woman globally is now 2.5 on average. People make sensible decisions when they are empowered/able to do. Government enforced policies to either grow or shrink populations are rarely of any value unless accompanies by severe repression.

Drop infant mortality rates, educate women and allow them proper job opportunities, move people to urban areas, educate about and provide contraception, and hey presto birth rates fall and not a sight or sound of heavy handed government intervention. Mr Condom, Condoms and Cabbages restaurants etc, for once Thailand can call itself a true hub, the hub of non-repressive, effective population reduction.

PS population density is the number of people living per square km. Singapore, Hong Kong etc disprove the notion that high population density means poverty.

[NxaiPan]

Sorry to have disappeared for a while...<<<snip>>>

No problem.

And now in my own words...

China's One Child Policy has been a classic example of too much, too late and with all sorts of (largely negative) unforeseen consequences.

Comparing the TFR (Total Fertility Rate, number of women born per woman) of China, Bangladesh and Thailand is illuminating:

1960: Thailand 6.2 China 5.5 Bangladesh 6.7 (peaking at 7.0 in 1970)

2011: Thailand 1.6 China 1.6 Bangladesh 2.5

In other words Thailand, starting from a higher level, has reached a similar level of fertility rates today to China without any need of a One Child Policy. Also it seems that "communists", buddhists and muslims are all equally capable of doing the right thing when it comes to population growth or lack of!

The answer is largely a result of 4 factors:

economic development

urbanization

enhances female education/status/job opportunities

serious fall in infant mortality (deaths before aged 1)

China's TFR peaked in 1966/67 at 5.9, had fallen to 4.2 by 1974 when the wen, xi shao (later, longer, fewer) anti-natalist programme was introduced, and was at 2.6 in 1979 when OCP was introduced.

The unnecessary role of OCP is highlighted in this link:

The field of demographics is always faced with confusion and half-truths. Have a go at this little quiz and see if you can do better than the chimpanzee which would score 4.5/9. Most people (especially the allegedly well-educated) seem to really struggle:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24836917

6 out of 9, at least I am brighter than a chimpanzee and it seems most university educated folk!

[NxaiPan]

It's insane. The world is already overpopulated, and more countries need to start a one child policy ( I can dream, can't I? ).

If it's just a matter of workers, there are around 70 million refugees that could be used for that.

The gender imbalance should be solved by enforcing the law, not allowing people to breed more mouths, and if millions of men won't be able to find wives, that's a good thing, as it will really reduce the population. Same thing is happening in India, as a result of selective abortions.

The world is not overpopulated yet, today it's more a case of misallocation of resources.

70 million refugees? Really, that seems a tad high. Countries like Japan with a falling population will need to rethink their draconian immigration policies or come up with some clever techno solution pdq, or they will be in all sorts of trouble.

It looks like that due to the gender imbalance in China even this lightening of the One Child Policy will have little impact:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/acab0276-5112-11e3-9651-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2lJDTRisr

[NxaiPan]

I have visited China a few times ..

I had a discussion with Chinese lady about one baby rule .

"you can have two babies but you pay government 100,000 to have the second , you must both

have good jobs " ..

Just thought id say coz I heard it straight from my friend.. The reason the topic came up was coz they are just about to get married and have a baby soon after ..

They are in Shanghai , which could have different rules .( like the facebook one lol )

They wouldn't talk much about it ..

One thing sociologists (East or West, or both) would have a field day with if the CCP would let them is the effect of the OCP on the personality of the PRChina. It didn't take me long to be able to almost always identify the one child students in my classes because of their distinctive personality, or lack of one. Compared to students from two child families, the one child offspring is more quiet, reserved, withdrawn, distant, inward oriented, lonesome and lonely, set apart from peers, sometimes can be seen talking to him/her self even in public in an obvious slipup due to habits of isolated private personal behavior.

The PRChinese only child is minimally socialized, if that much, and is redefining the PRChinese personality heavily toward a general anomie. One only child university student I got to know well told me he was still ticked off at his parents because they never would let him have a dog for a companion of sorts.

The lonely crowd.

There is also the "Little Emperor" syndrome where the sole child become thoroughly spoiled.

Going down the S Korea route there is now enormous pressure on that sole child to perform academically.

Also what is termed the 4-2-1 paradox whereby this sole child may end up having to help out 2 parents and 4 grandparents as life expectancy grows as fast as birth rates decline.