PM Yingluck has one clear choice: step down

[webfact]

NATION ANALYSIS
PM has one clear choice: step down
Jintana Panyaarvudh, Somroutai Sapsomboon
The Nation

Charter court verdict has resulted in deadlock; House dissolution best choice November 22, 2013 1:00 am

BANGKOK: -- The Constitutional Court's Wednesday verdict shooting down the charter amendment related to senators' selection and qualifications may not have caused any major changes within the Pheu Thai-led government, but it has created political deadlock.

Amid the headaches caused by the verdict, at least one thing is clear: The processes by which the bill was passed, and its content, are unconstitutional. Though the court did not prescribe any penalty for those who committed the wrongdoing, Article 216 states that the decision of the court shall be deemed final and binding on all organisations.

In this case, those who seem certain to face consequences are Parliament President Somsak Kiatsuranont, Parliament Vice President Nikom Wairatpanij, House secretary-general Suwichag Nakwatcharachai, all 312 MPs and senators who proposed the amendment bill, and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who submitted it to His Majesty for endorsement.

If the people involved are penalised, a political vacuum could result. Complaints and impeachment petitions against Somsak, Nikom, the 312 lawmakers and the PM have already been lodged with the National Anti-Corruption Commission.

The anti-graft panel yesterday resolved to set up a panel to investigate the case. If the NACC finds grounds to suspect wrongdoing by the accused, they shall not perform their duties until the Senate votes on whether to impeach them.

If Somsak and Nikom cannot perform their duties, then Parliament cannot be convened. The Pheu Thai Party's plan to push forward to vote for a third reading to amend Article 291 of the Constitution will not succeed.

Attempts to amend that article was meant to pave the way for the entire charter to be rewritten. But the charter court last year ruled that a wholesale rewrite of the Constitution would require that a referendum be held.

The fates of the 312 lawmakers - consisting of 262 MPs and 50 senators - and Yingluck would be determined in the same way as Somsak and Nikom's. If the NACC finds grounds to suspect wrongdoing by the PM and the lawmakers, then only Democrat MPs and those from other small parties will be left in the House. How will the House function if more than half of its members are suspended?

Yingluck could also face impeachment over an allegation related to the rice-pledging scheme. The case is being investigated by the NACC and should conclude soon. If the panel finds grounds to suspect wrongdoing by the PM, she will not be able to perform her duty.

Amid such political chaos and deadlock, Yingluck has only two cards to play: to resign or dissolve the House.

Even if she wants to stay, her government will be in a lame-duck situation. Plus, many landmines will lie ahead for her.

The government may also face legal headaches on the amendment of Article 190, which will allow the government to sign international deals without seeking legislative approval, and on the Bt2-trillion loan bill. The two bills are pending court consideration of their constitutionality.

Another impeachment motion will be lodged against the 310 MPs who voted for the blanket amnesty bill.

The decision on whether to quit may be taken out of Yingluck's hands, because "something else" could interfere in the situation.

Furthermore, if the 312 lawmakers are suspended, the Pheu Thai Party may not be in a position to select her replacement anyway.

So a House dissolution appears to be a better choice, but when? Yingluck will have to wait until the censure debate finishes. The House session will end on November 28.

Early next month, 109 politicians of the now-defunct People Power, Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties will end their five-year bans and return to the field of politics.

Perhaps that could be the right timing for a House dissolution.


-- The Nation 2013-11-22

[Thainy Tim]

Seriously hope the NACC sees sense and moves to impeach, that clears all the crap out of the way and the protests can dwindle.

It is far easier to overcome a vacuum by forcing new elections with all those Thaksin nitwits unqualified to participate.

Not that any of these clowns will be willing to accept anything other than what is in their favour. They would probably move to impeach the NACC as a counter strategy, a bit hard to do if you are no longer legally in office

Even with all the money Thaksin has, I doubt he has enough contacts left to form a credible party with any chance in hell of getting elected.

Old Suthep may well be right and the writing really IS on the wall for the Thaksin regime.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Thainy Tim

[Robby nz]

Early next month, 109 politicians of the now-defunct People Power, Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties will end their five-year bans and return to the field of politics.

So they could recycle 109 who have already been done for dishonesty.

They would fit in real well.

[angsta]

This is so unlike The Nation

I can think of another easier option which would be to not step down.

Rocket science it ain't.

[waza]

Early next month, 109 politicians of the now-defunct People Power, Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties will end their five-year bans and return to the field of politics.

So they could recycle 109 who have already been done for dishonesty.

They would fit in real well.

In addition Thaksin has the 111 TRT politician who's ban ended in May 2012, that gives them an additional 210 politician to build a new cabinet with.

[Roadman]

This is so unlike The Nation

I can think of another easier option which would be to not step down.

Rocket science it ain't.

Certainly easier for the government to stay in power, but at the expense of the economy and the foreseeable future of Thailand.

With the corruption, incompetence and lack of governance that is going on there will be nothing to show but a huge debt and a few below spec part completed projects for Thailand once the 2 trillion that this lot want to get their filthy hands on to cover their current debt mess and Shinawatra and their lackey's lavishness.

[Ricardo]

Early next month, 109 politicians of the now-defunct People Power, Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties will end their five-year bans and return to the field of politics.

So they could recycle 109 who have already been done for dishonesty.

They would fit in real well.

In addition Thaksin has the 111 TRT politician who's ban ended in May 2012, that gives them an additional 210 politician to build a new cabinet with.

The crowd round the piggy-trough looks set to grow, one hopes that the government can maintain control of the mob, so that all get to 'eat', cue more Cabinet-reshuffles !

[JRSoul]

This is so unlike The Nation

I can think of another easier option which would be to not step down.

Rocket science it ain't.

Or she could wait until she is indicted and run the country from Dubai.

[scorecard]

Seriously hope the NACC sees sense and moves to impeach, that clears all the crap out of the way and the protests can dwindle.

It is far easier to overcome a vacuum by forcing new elections with all those Thaksin nitwits unqualified to participate.

Not that any of these clowns will be willing to accept anything other than what is in their favour. They would probably move to impeach the NACC as a counter strategy, a bit hard to do if you are no longer legally in office

Even with all the money Thaksin has, I doubt he has enough contacts left to form a credible party with any chance in hell of getting elected.

Old Suthep may well be right and the writing really IS on the wall for the Thaksin regime.

If the whole mob are forced out of office in shame, it would be interesting to see which current 'diners at the trough' have no shame whatever and readily line up quickly to be part of the new 'get very rich very quickly' gang.

[Thait Spot]

This is so unlike The Nation

I can think of another easier option which would be to not step down.

Rocket science it ain't.

I disagree - the public has sent a number of large rockets up the collective Shinawatra jacksy

The reason she can't step down is that Big Brother won't let her. And the reason for that is that he couldn't possibly contemplate putting yet another member of the family at the head.

So - Barbie it is until the bitter end

[JRSoul]

Poor Yingluk has trouble making decisions without advice from her caddy. Not to worry, if she procrastinates much longer, it will be made for her.

[Local Drunk]

"PM has one clear choice: step down"

Can she get any lower than she already is?

[Orac]

I am confused as to why those that voted for the amendment are being impeached - does this set a precedent that where anything voted for that is later struck down by the CC would have those that voted for it banned?

[Thait Spot]

I am confused as to why those that voted for the amendment are being impeached - does this set a precedent that where anything voted for that is later struck down by the CC would have those that voted for it banned?

I think the big difference here is the underhand/calamitous amendment of documents between readings, the undemocratic debate that stifled opposition discussion and the dishonesty of the votes

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Local Drunk]

I am confused as to why those that voted for the amendment are being impeached - does this set a precedent that where anything voted for that is later struck down by the CC would have those that voted for it banned?

I think it's Article 68 of the constitution that the CC said the amendment violated. However, the impeachment process was started before the CC rendered its decision on the amendment, but the Majority Whip didn't accept the the Demo's impeachment request until after the CC ruled on the amendment.

It's a game of strategy and I think the House is very nervous now...

I hope that a more sober mind can elaborate on your question....

Edited November 22, 2013 by Local Drunk

[FLHR]

I am confused as to why those that voted for the amendment are being impeached - does this set a precedent that where anything voted for that is later struck down by the CC would have those that voted for it banned?

Suppose anything can be in this twilight zone kind-a-place; but, I think they're referring to voting fraud (one moron voting in place of several morons).

[ezzra]

Mr. T is used to the adage that says that money can buy everything, in most cases, yes,

but now it appears that no money will make things right for his sister, so the game

is on, and it's anybody game's now....

[Neilly]

NATION ANALYSIS

PM has one clear choice: step down

Can't we just go back to the good old days and make her walk the plank

[boomerangutang]

For T, having Yingluck screw-up is better than having the Dems take over. If/when Thailand devolves to chaos (which T endeavored to orchestrate in 2009 and 2010) then He thinks the Thai sheeple will bleat out in unison: "Oh Great Leader, Come back and save us!"

[virtualtraveller]

actually it's all about timing. Puea Thai can call a snap poll any time they want and still likely win. Right now is the wrong time, the farmers aren't getting their paddy pledge, Yingluck's popularity is at an all time low, and they need to survive long enough to get start writing out the 2 trillion cheque. Don't forget, almost everything they've done has been aimed at winning an even bigger majority at the next election and burying the opposition, plus getting their men into various agencies, panels, courts. Hasn't quite worked out for them. The senate bill was killed because PT were rushing it through ahead of next March senate elections. Dems are putting on the pressure because they may never have a better chance of stealing PT voters away.

[Local Drunk]

actually it's all about timing. Puea Thai can call a snap poll any time they want and still likely win. Right now is the wrong time, the farmers aren't getting their paddy pledge, Yingluck's popularity is at an all time low, and they need to survive long enough to get start writing out the 2 trillion cheque. Don't forget, almost everything they've done has been aimed at winning an even bigger majority at the next election and burying the opposition, plus getting their men into various agencies, panels, courts. Hasn't quite worked out for them. The senate bill was killed because PT were rushing it through ahead of next March senate elections. Dems are putting on the pressure because they may never have a better chance of stealing PT voters away.

The two trillion infrastructure bill may be knocked down by the CC as well... I don't see that bill being popular with anyone in Thailand outside of the government.

[Local Drunk]

NATION ANALYSIS

PM has one clear choice: step down

Can't we just go back to the good old days and make her walk the plank

Capt'n Neilly Sir! The men have been at sea for months... and well you know, she's not too hard on the eyes. It's would certainly improve the crews moral a bit, if they had a "mascot" to cheer them up a bit... if you know what I mean? But that's only until we sail into deeper waters, then we can give her a good flogging and sink her somewhere where she'll never resurface... Wot ya say Sir?

[Ricardo]

If the whole mob are forced out of office in shame, it would be interesting to see which current 'diners at the trough' have no shame whatever and readily line up quickly to be part of the new 'get very rich very quickly' gang.

On previous experience, every small-party currently enjoying the trough in the government-coalition would switch instantly, to be part of any new coalition, no matter who was forming it.

They're all infinitely-flexible, at a price.

[Thainy Tim]

Seriously hope the NACC sees sense and moves to impeach, that clears all the crap out of the way and the protests can dwindle.

It is far easier to overcome a vacuum by forcing new elections with all those Thaksin nitwits unqualified to participate.

Not that any of these clowns will be willing to accept anything other than what is in their favour. They would probably move to impeach the NACC as a counter strategy, a bit hard to do if you are no longer legally in office

Even with all the money Thaksin has, I doubt he has enough contacts left to form a credible party with any chance in hell of getting elected.

Old Suthep may well be right and the writing really IS on the wall for the Thaksin regime.

If the whole mob are forced out of office in shame, it would be interesting to see which current 'diners at the trough' have no shame whatever and readily line up quickly to be part of the new 'get very rich very quickly' gang.

There won't be that many left.

Thaksin's other soon to be released fiddlers will find it hard to get positioned at the trough. You can't just bring them off the street fresh from the ban and put them in parliament.

How many of these guys do you think will get elected again?

Edited November 22, 2013 by Thainy Tim

[northernjohn]

actually it's all about timing. Puea Thai can call a snap poll any time they want and still likely win. Right now is the wrong time, the farmers aren't getting their paddy pledge, Yingluck's popularity is at an all time low, and they need to survive long enough to get start writing out the 2 trillion cheque. Don't forget, almost everything they've done has been aimed at winning an even bigger majority at the next election and burying the opposition, plus getting their men into various agencies, panels, courts. Hasn't quite worked out for them. The senate bill was killed because PT were rushing it through ahead of next March senate elections. Dems are putting on the pressure because they may never have a better chance of stealing PT voters away.

Also along with Yingluck's popularity at an all time low there were a lot of her voters who were sure and they were right that a vote for Yingluck was a vote for Thaksin. He to is loosing his appeal to the people. Many of them no longer support him and the only thing keeping him going is an open check book to mindless for hire rabble and many signed letters of resignation.

Yes a snap election would more than likely see the PTP back in but with out a majority. With out a majority they would have to start making concessions to other parties the same as Abhist did.

It would lead to an even more corrupt government because their in addition to the same old pigs at the trough there would be a new batch added. They would be looking for 3 trillion Baht loan.

[northernjohn]

Poor Yingluk has trouble making decisions without advice from her caddy. Not to worry, if she procrastinates much longer, it will be made for her.

The big problem is that her and her caddy think they are playing on a par 72 tournement class course. Of course they are.

But they are doing it like it was a mini golf course. Where all that is neesded is the putter. Namely Thaksin's check book.

Edited November 22, 2013 by northernjohn

[Baerboxer]

actually it's all about timing. Puea Thai can call a snap poll any time they want and still likely win. Right now is the wrong time, the farmers aren't getting their paddy pledge, Yingluck's popularity is at an all time low, and they need to survive long enough to get start writing out the 2 trillion cheque. Don't forget, almost everything they've done has been aimed at winning an even bigger majority at the next election and burying the opposition, plus getting their men into various agencies, panels, courts. Hasn't quite worked out for them. The senate bill was killed because PT were rushing it through ahead of next March senate elections. Dems are putting on the pressure because they may never have a better chance of stealing PT voters away.

That's a good summary. PTP have tried to rush the whitewash amnesty bill, the senate election bill and the 2.2 trillion loan bill through - all part of a much bigger strategy and end game. The agenda seems very clear - get the boss back, remove or at least dilute checks and balances, free the party from having to account to parliament for how the 2.2 trillion and 350 million water management monies are spent, and free the party to make deals on behalf of the country without having to seek permission or divulge the details. Getting their people into key positions since taking power was the start. They must believe they have enough key positions covered but have come unstuck.

In other words, total control with no public accountability other than what they decide to tell you. (From a party that openly lies and even considers lying ethical!).

Lunatics in charge of the asylum if this ever happens - but they will be very rich lunatics!!

[Nickymaster]

Yes she should step down (immediately), pack her bags, and book a first class flight to spend the rest of her life with big bro before more harm is done to Thailand. The lady has proven the last 2.5 years that she is unqualified in leading Thailand.

Edited November 22, 2013 by Nickymaster

[Baerboxer]

Seriously hope the NACC sees sense and moves to impeach, that clears all the crap out of the way and the protests can dwindle.

It is far easier to overcome a vacuum by forcing new elections with all those Thaksin nitwits unqualified to participate.

Not that any of these clowns will be willing to accept anything other than what is in their favour. They would probably move to impeach the NACC as a counter strategy, a bit hard to do if you are no longer legally in office

Even with all the money Thaksin has, I doubt he has enough contacts left to form a credible party with any chance in hell of getting elected.

Old Suthep may well be right and the writing really IS on the wall for the Thaksin regime.

If the whole mob are forced out of office in shame, it would be interesting to see which current 'diners at the trough' have no shame whatever and readily line up quickly to be part of the new 'get very rich very quickly' gang.

You forget, they need to get elected first. You can't just bring them off the street fresh from the ban and put them in parliament.

How many of these guys do you think will get elected again?

Should be like you say. But, I'm sure some of these will turn up as Party List MPs.

The good old party list system - isn't that how Yingluck, Chalerm, and most of the cabinet got "elected".

So democratic - and yet all the government supporters who whine on about a democratically elected senate never feel the need to mention this little gem.

[gordon from yasothon]

But she's fit!!!