Where is the baht going in the next few months?

[DGIE]

I noticed that every December, Thai Baht falls dollar rises.

But when dollar falls incredibly, I learned from an adviser (as he claimed himself) that the ex PM Thaksin, buys lots

and when it goes up he sells. Nobody of us may have thought/invested on that business.

Thaksin is indeed a great businessman.

[chiang mai]

In fact, BOT does appear to be spending around USD 1 bill of their foreign reserves on something, perhaps on currency stabilization.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=94&language=ENG

"...perhaps on currency stabilization."

Don't see anything there to support that conclusion. Usually if a central bank enters the currency market they'll advertise the fact because the publicity is a psychological benefit. No point in doing it secretly.

It's not a conclusion, it's a possibility. But the number do show a fall of around USD 1 bill. per week.

And if the reserves are not being spent on currency support, what are they being spent on?

Finally, I fund it hard super to imagine that BOT would wish to advertise the fact they are struggling to defend the currency, they simply wouldn't do that as a matter of course unless pressed by outsiders to explain the downward trend in reserves.

Edited December 11, 2013 by chiang mai

[circusman]

I suppose one could argue that the political issues have, in part, caused the baht to drop which means that if those same issues truly are beginning to dissipate, then the baht could rise.

However this is much like making prognostications on the various stock markets - every now and then some one will get it right and live off that glory for as long as possible.

I agree with the other poster - if you like that the exchange rate has improved from a few weeks ago, why wait. Again like the markets, it is a bit of a fools game to think that we can time the highs and lows perfectly.

Dissipate ? Will only get worse my friend.

[el jefe]

if you read the posters on ThaiVisa, the Thai economy sucks, the political situation is a disaster, and no one here knows how to do anything, then the baht will fall against most foreign currencies and you should wait as long as possible.

If you don't read ThaiVisa you might form the opposite opinion.

I hope this helps!

[chiang mai]

In fact, BOT does appear to be spending around USD 1 bill of their foreign reserves on something, perhaps on currency stabilization.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=94&language=ENG

"...perhaps on currency stabilization."

Don't see anything there to support that conclusion. Usually if a central bank enters the currency market they'll advertise the fact because the publicity is a psychological benefit. No point in doing it secretly.

It's not a conclusion, it's a possibility. But the number do show a fall of around USD 1 bill. per week.

And if the reserves are not being spent on currency support, what are they being spent on?

Finally, I fund it hard super to imagine that BOT would wish to advertise the fact they are struggling to defend the currency, they simply wouldn't do that as a matter of course unless pressed by outsiders to explain the downward trend in reserves.

Edited December 11, 2013 by chiang mai

[Gonsalviz]

Years ago, I was told that recessions travel east. The US is dubiously recovering, Europe is still in dire straits. My guess is that when Europe begins to recover, Asian will be headed downhill.

[DavidMavec]

While I understand why the OP would ask such a question--as we would all love to know--it's still hysterical. Surely the OP knows how to take a wild guess. Because his guess has the same probability of being accurate as any other guesses on here.

Yes, uh, yeah, terribly sorry for my hysteria.

I was looking for some educated opinions/guesses/guestimications/etc which is exactly what I got!

So thanks to the posters who entertained my hysterical question so well!

[chiang mai]

The Trade Winds perhaps, but what happens when those winds keep blowing East across the Pacific!

[Naam]

I noticed that every December, Thai Baht falls dollar rises.

But when dollar falls incredibly, I learned from an adviser (as he claimed himself) that the ex PM Thaksin, buys lots

and when it goes up he sells. Nobody of us may have thought/invested on that business.

Thaksin is indeed a great businessman.

only a genius like Thaksin buys something when the price is low and sells when the price is high.

none of us ever had that clever idea

[Naam]

Thai baht WILL go through the floor....as it did in 1997

[PeterSmiles]

It's not a conclusion, it's a possibility. But the number do show a fall of around USD 1 bill. per week.

And if the reserves are not being spent on currency support, what are they being spent on?

There has disappeared more money than that under this government.

They were also going to use the foreign reserves to fund the 2 Trillion baht loan.

Maybe they are already skimming of their part.

[Naam]

It's not a conclusion, it's a possibility. But the number do show a fall of around USD 1 bill. per week.

And if the reserves are not being spent on currency support, what are they being spent on?

There has disappeared more money than that under this government.

They were also going to use the foreign reserves to fund the 2 Trillion baht loan.

Maybe they are already skimming of their part.

the usual silly assumptions plus the ignorant diction "foreign reserves".

[Ulic]

As things improve in the US and the FED tapers the USD will strengthen compared to all currencies except the Yen. USD goes to 34 baht.

The unsettled Thai government and the rice pledging scheme will do nothing to improve the Thai baht.

As things continue to improve in Europe the Euro and Pound will strengthen another 5%.

Australian and Canadian dollar will tread water in relation to the baht maybe improve by a baht

Just the musings of a deluded TV reader.

[PeterSmiles]

It's not a conclusion, it's a possibility. But the number do show a fall of around USD 1 bill. per week.

And if the reserves are not being spent on currency support, what are they being spent on?

There has disappeared more money than that under this government.

They were also going to use the foreign reserves to fund the 2 Trillion baht loan.

Maybe they are already skimming of their part.

the usual silly assumptions plus the ignorant diction "foreign reserves".

What is so ignorant about foreign reserves Herr Naam ? Is that I didn't include the word " exchange " .

Please educate me.

Furthermore, what's so silly about my assumption ? Hasn't this Government been digging holes to fill the others for the past 2 years ?

Edited December 11, 2013 by PeterSmiles

[Bender]

Hot money coming in and out of Thai stock market provide lots of ups and downs short term as does the political situation, but over the long haul, the THB (Thai Baht) has been strengthening until April of this year. The Thai stock market tripled over the last 4 1/2 years but fell like a rock in May of this year. Likely the market going down dropped the Baht due to money leaving the country.

With a poor political situation driving the economy down, seems like this chart continues, ie, weaker baht. Good for those of us whose income is in $ as long as we don't have property to sell.

if we look carefully at your chart we realize that major foreign currency started to gain against thai baht exactly in may

when rumor come out that FED will stop his stimulus to US economy.

In fact FED did give few months to emerging country to sort and be ready. Otherwise India, Thailand, ... would have crashed.

The next FED meeting is coming soon, maybe some surprise around the corner.

[tomyumchai]

well the biggest thing ive noticed is that im saving £1600 on a ducati if i buy one now compared to july when i first fancied one.........lets hope i can get a baseball cap and a keyring for the same cash in january.......

[Ticker2000]

Tapering sooner than expected me thinks with the new budget timeframe/ceiling.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/u-s-budget-deal-restores-65b-in-automatic-spending-cuts-1.1584477

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/fitch-us-budget-deal-signals-improved-po-idUSFit68009320131211

If so 55-60 here we come.

60 plus no way unless Thai civil war and complete economic breakdown occur.....

Here hoping for......................

Edited December 11, 2013 by Ticker2000

[Ticker2000]

Further food for thought re timing of tapering. We all know that not all of the effect of tapering has been priced in yet - well some of us do....

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/with-qe-tapering-in-sight-how-high-can-long-term-interest-rates-go/article15813435/

[SheungWan]

I noticed that every December, Thai Baht falls dollar rises.

But when dollar falls incredibly, I learned from an adviser (as he claimed himself) that the ex PM Thaksin, buys lots

and when it goes up he sells. Nobody of us may have thought/invested on that business.

Thaksin is indeed a great businessman.

Would that be the same Thaksin the great businessman caught out laundering monies through his family and the family chauffeur?

[Nilz]

My view on the EUR/THB.

According to technical analysis, the pair could re-trace down when the next resistance is hit at approx. 44.75 (Red line) from July 2011.

It might be a bounce down to 43.00 during 1-2 months and then up again to re-test 44.75 level.

If it punch through, then the next major target is at 50.00.

.

Edited December 11, 2013 by Nilz

[jacko45k]

the bath is currently circuling the drain

Good time to transfer money in?

Anyone who actually knows about this stuff is welcome to reply :-).

Thanks!

Anybody who actually knew about this stuff would have better things to do than post here.

The Euro has been strengthening for the last month against US$... after years of bad news some positive has been whispered in the wings.

Baht has been weakening (again v US$) for perhaps 7-9 months due to money being moved out and back into more traditional investment locations... and a bit of political uncertainty.

I hope it continues, politics here certainly seems messy, but Europe and USA may yet decide they like weaker currencies!

I tend to 'move a chunk' while it looks good'......for me in £... that would be today.

[Naam]

It's not a conclusion, it's a possibility. But the number do show a fall of around USD 1 bill. per week.

And if the reserves are not being spent on currency support, what are they being spent on?

There has disappeared more money than that under this government.

They were also going to use the foreign reserves to fund the 2 Trillion baht loan.

Maybe they are already skimming of their part.

the usual silly assumptions plus the ignorant diction "foreign reserves".

What is so ignorant about foreign reserves Herr Naam ? Is that I didn't include the word " exchange " .

Please educate me.

Furthermore, what's so silly about my assumption ? Hasn't this Government been digging holes to fill the others for the past 2 years ?

yes, the expression "foreign reserves" without the word currency is ignorant and misleading. next thing might be that somebody refers to the "foreign reserves" as "foreign debt". i have noticed this sort of development in this forum dozens of times.

tell me some details about the holes the government has been digging and which holes were filled.

[chiang mai]

Clearly the term foreign reserves refers to regiments 3 and 5 of the Thai army that are comprised entirely of Chinese citizens.

[Berkshire]

While I understand why the OP would ask such a question--as we would all love to know--it's still hysterical. Surely the OP knows how to take a wild guess. Because his guess has the same probability of being accurate as any other guesses on here.

Yes, uh, yeah, terribly sorry for my hysteria.

I was looking for some educated opinions/guesses/guestimications/etc which is exactly what I got!

So thanks to the posters who entertained my hysterical question so well!

No offense, David. It's just that on these types of forums, people tend to confuse their "hopes" with an actual objective reasoning. It's hard enough to try and predict currency fluctuations, but when you mix in emotion...you're going to get a mess of opinions. For sure, you can't listen to the idiots who've been predicting the collapse of Thailand for years now.

I'm pretty sure most farangs in Thailand would love for the THB to weaken. I personally would prefer the THB to be at about 40 vs. the US$. But that's not realistic, at least not in the short term. Because it's not just about what the Thai economy and gov is doing, it's what our home countries and the rest of the world are doing as well. And then there's all that buckets of foreign money floating around trying to find a home (albeit a temporary one). Impossible to know with any certainty.

[chiang mai]

Perhaps an easier question to answer is where is the Thai Baht not going?

It's difficult to imagine THB could get any stronger than 48 given all the present constraints such as political unrest, the threat of tapering and a sluggish global economy, even if the politics were to be favorably sorted tomorrow around 48 would be my candidate for maximum strength right now.

And whilst the doomsayers are hoping as Berkshire has written that THB will weaken to 60 or more, I personally find that hard to imagine. GDP projections currently for next year are at 4% although that could change based on the politics. But cheap labour, solid exports markets plus further growth on the back of Cambodia and Myanmar are all THB positive. I'll plump for 57 as being the bottom of the range and even then only if all the risk factors materialise.

Anyone?

Edited December 12, 2013 by chiang mai

[Berkshire]

Perhaps an easier question to answer is where is the Thai Baht not going?

It's difficult to imagine THB could get any stronger than 48 given all the present constraints such as political unrest, the threat of tapering and a sluggish global economy, even if the politics were to be favorably sorted tomorrow around 48 would be my candidate for maximum strength right now.

And whilst the doomsayers are hoping as Berkshire has written that THB will weaken to 60 or more, I personally find that hard to imagine. GDP projections currently for next year are at 4% although that could change based on the politics. But cheap labour, solid exports markets plus further growth on the back of Cambodia and Myanmar are all THB positive. I'll plump for 57 as being the bottom of the range and even then only if all the risk factors materialise.

Anyone?

Fair enough. With respect to the US$, I'd say the baht is not going below 29 and not above 35 in 2014. Bold predictions!

[SpokaneAl]

Perhaps an easier question to answer is where is the Thai Baht not going?

 

It's difficult to imagine THB could get any stronger than 48 given all the present constraints such as political unrest, the threat of tapering and a sluggish global economy, even if the politics were to be favorably sorted tomorrow around 48 would be my candidate for maximum strength right now.

 

And whilst the doomsayers are hoping as Berkshire has written that THB will weaken to 60 or more, I personally find that hard to imagine. GDP projections currently for next year are at 4% although that could change based on the politics. But cheap labour, solid exports markets plus further growth on the back of Cambodia and Myanmar are all THB positive. I'll plump for 57 as being the bottom of the range and even then only if all the risk factors materialise.

 

Anyone?

 

Fair enough.  With respect to the US$, I'd say the baht is not going below 29 and not above 35 in 2014.  Bold predictions!

 

Good for you for putting it out there!

[PeterSmiles]

tell me some details about the holes the government has been digging and which holes were filled.

At your request Herr Naam

The government has over spent its cash limit for the scheme last crop season while the new round of budget of 270 billion baht earlier endorsed by the Cabinet has not yet been allocated.

He said there was attempt to shift budget from many sources to support the scheme.

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/government-lose-popular-vote-rice-scheme-scrapped/

[Naam]

tell me some details about the holes the government has been digging and which holes were filled.

At your request Herr Naam

The government has over spent its cash limit for the scheme last crop season while the new round of budget of 270 billion baht earlier endorsed by the Cabinet has not yet been allocated.

He said there was attempt to shift budget from many sources to support the scheme.

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/government-lose-popular-vote-rice-scheme-scrapped/

is it handled differently in our home countries?

[MrWorldwide]

While I understand why the OP would ask such a question--as we would all love to know--it's still hysterical. Surely the OP knows how to take a wild guess. Because his guess has the same probability of being accurate as any other guesses on here.

Yes, uh, yeah, terribly sorry for my hysteria.

I was looking for some educated opinions/guesses/guestimications/etc which is exactly what I got!

So thanks to the posters who entertained my hysterical question so well!

No offense, David. It's just that on these types of forums, people tend to confuse their "hopes" with an actual objective reasoning. It's hard enough to try and predict currency fluctuations, but when you mix in emotion...you're going to get a mess of opinions. For sure, you can't listen to the idiots who've been predicting the collapse of Thailand for years now.

I'm pretty sure most farangs in Thailand would love for the THB to weaken. I personally would prefer the THB to be at about 40 vs. the US$. But that's not realistic, at least not in the short term. Because it's not just about what the Thai economy and gov is doing, it's what our home countries and the rest of the world are doing as well. And then there's all that buckets of foreign money floating around trying to find a home (albeit a temporary one). Impossible to know with any certainty.

Thank you berkshire, but I fear that any attempts to steer these discussions down the path of cold hard logic will inevitably fail.