Uneasy times for Democrats, and Pheu Thai

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ANALYSIS
Uneasy times for Democrats, and Pheu Thai
The Nation

While the current ruling party sees decline in its popularity, the opposition must decide whether to contest election

BANGKOK: -- It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for the Democrat Party while the ruling Pheu Thai is faced with dropping popularity.

The Democrats have to make a difficult decision on whether to contest or boycott the general election on February 2, while caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is reportedly feeling disheartened and is unsure about continuing her political career. Moreover, both parties admit their popularity will decline in the upcoming election.

The Democrats could delay their decision until the last day of registration of party-list candidates on December 27. Currently, the party is seeking the opinion of its 178 party branches nationwide on the issue. Their opinions, including the size of the mass rally of anti-government protesters called on Sunday, will be considered by both the new and old boards at its meeting on Saturday.

A new member of the Democrat executive committee, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he would propose to the meeting that the party conditionally field candidates.

"I'd suggest that we campaign under the slogan 'vote for the Democrats, vote for political reform'. After the elections, we may opt not to take any political position, to pave the way for real political reform. Now we are creating the best condition that we can," the source said.

Following such a course would show that the party respects the rule of law and is trying to protect democracy under the Constitution, which is what Democrat voters really want, he said.

Democrat leaders estimate that 70 per cent of Thais believe an election is the best way to end the current political conflict, while 30 per cent do not want an election now, the source added.

"Most of the group [the 30 per cent] are Democrat supporters. So if the party decides to run in the election, it is hard to imagine what will happen next. We might become the party hated by the protesters. We might get less than 100 seats in the election," the source said.

"Now is the right time for the Democrat Party to seize the advantage as a political reform leader. This can make the anti-government protesters our supporters and vote for us," the source said.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday said the current atmosphere is not suitable for the election and people have doubts about the use of power by the government. Therefore, the election should be postponed.

"The validity of the election is not determined by whether the Democrats will run in the election but whether the people will boycott the election," Abhisit said.

Since dissolving the House, Yingluck has not yet revealed whether she will run in the next election. However, Pheu Thai will plead with her to run as a party-list candidate again as she is still popular, a party source said. But they may choose another MP to become the prime minister after the election. Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Phongthep Thepkanjana, who is in charge of national reform, and caretaker Education Minister Chaturon Chaisang are emerging as PM candidates if Yingluck decides not to return to politics.

Pheu Thai, which is preparing to field all 125 party-list candidates and 375 constituency candidates, estimates the party would win 200-230 seats, down from 265 in the last election, the source said.

An internal poll conducted by Pheu Thai found the popularity of a Thaksin Shinawatra party to be the lowest in 12 years since his first government came to power under Thai Rak Thai, a Democrat source claimed. The party has lost many supporters in Bangkok and the Central region. This could help the Democrats win more party-list MP seats if the party decides to contest, the source said.


-- The Nation 2013-12-19

[FangFerang]

After the elections, we may opt not to take any political position, to pave the way for real political reform...

How absurdly Zen!

[chainarong]

The Democrats do Thailand no favours by boycotting the elections, they must fight a vigorous campaign , to get the swinging voter , they must embrace reform and above all respect the good people of Thailand and make them a much more educated informed society. The democrats have a good chance with a well thought out programme , The PTP have to come to terms that not everyone loves Thaskin, this will be the down fall of this party, eventually , regardless of what pitch the PR machine blurts out , they have dug themselves a grave that could hurt them big time , however Thai's have away of forgiving, I've been wrong before , so maybe I am here as well.

[tomacht8]

Is it really so interesting to lead the country in the next 2 years?

Who likes to explain to the farmers that the rice scheme is not financially viable?

Maybe it is better to make only once an inventory, in terms of finances?

Besides working on reforms, and checking out what is budget wise realistically possible and necessary?

To really solve the country's problems, both political camps must (learn) work together,

for the benefit of the country and around the inner peace to be restored.

Hopefully all remember the birthday speech of their king.

Peace and unity.

Hopefully all responsible leaders look in the mirror and ask themselves:

“Have I really done anything to help my country?”

Starts at times to do your duty for your country and the people.

Man,y many state leaders and people in key positions have already made enough money

yet for themselves. Many do not have existential fears.

Many of these leaders have lost contact with the people. They do not know what it means:

To work for 300 Baht a day as a construction worker, taxidriver, service worker, etc. or

to feed a family as a farmer.

Greedy and corrupt people should resign.

Please all.

Make the way free for honest people to lead this country.

It is time now to pay back to your country.

[Nibbles48]

A very interesting and observant article.

Would like to know the Dem source, he has great insight.

It may be a good time for the Dems to get together with Suthep, and discuss this in detail. They need to work together to convince the protesters that they are forming a special party strategy to go all out and be the party for reform. Number one and only policy in their manifesto.

With the protesters basically having reform on their minds as the first principle of the protests, and also vowing 'reform in the north' with policies that are sustainable and realistic as opposed to the populist policies of the Thaksin regime which have all collapsed in tremendous style which can not be denied by the northern voters.

Hopefully they can get enough on their side to actually run away with this election. Taking full advantage of the PTP waning popularity.

The north are not so stupid that they don't know that the rice scam is not going to go another 12 months on a PTP watch. But it could be reconfigured by the Dems so that it is enough to keep it running.

Almost everyone in Thailand wants reform, and that is it. Also, almost everyone in Thailand knows that the PTP are not keen on reform in the areas it that ought to be reformed the most e.g corruption, and unconstitutional moves. By being seen as the only option for full reform, I really think that the Dems can milk it enough to swing the vote.

But this will only work with no vote buying allowed, they have to insist that a real effort is made by the EC to stamp this out totally. This needs to be a condition placed on the EC by the Dems who will threaten to walk away from the election should any evidence be of vote buying come to light.

If they do get into power, Suthep wins the end game, and gets his full reform with the Dems at the helm.