Expat Experience and Confirmation Bias

[GuestHouse]

I'm going to illustrate my thinking here with an example of a TVF post which perfectly captures 'Expat Experience and Confirmation Bias'.

Before I do so let me make two things explicitly clear:

The topic of this thread is "Expat Experience and Confirmation Bias", it is not the use and meaning of the word 'Farang' and it is absolutely not a discussion on the sacrifice others have made in times of war.

If you get tempted to drift into those two topics come back and read what I have said above… then start your own thread to discuss those topics if you wish.

Here we go, Expat Experience and Confirmation Bias:

I've observed it many times, in others, certainly in myself. I'm sure we have all experienced it - This should not surprise us - Confirmation Bias is a basic trick of human psychology - we accept that which supports, or we believe supports our own point of view. Wkiepedia have a good page on Confirmation Bias http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

I've often quipped here on TVF that the definition of good advice around here is that which supports the pre-held beliefs of the person asking for advice. (That's a recognition that Confirmation Bias is at play in the recipient of advice, even though they may have asked for the advice in the first place).

So what's this got to do with expats?

Quite a lot actually, and it plays a part in a lot of the bickering that goes on here on TVF.

Take for an example two expats who have differing views of life in Thailand, the one loves his life in Thailand, the second has fallen out of love with his life in Thailand. Both will experience their day to day life in Thailand through their own window of confirmation bias.

Saffron Tinted Sunglasses are the recognition of Confirmation Bias for the first expat, he sees everything in a positive light, reaffirming his believe that life could not be better. The second is drinking his fill of 'Bitter and Twisted Ales', the slightest problem with life in Thailand reaffirming his belief that life could not be worse.

Of course most of us are a little more balanced, we see life not in black and white, but in shades of grey, on a good day we might swing one way, on a bad day we might swing the other - but we hover around the middle of contented acceptance of the way things are.

Our black and white expats are in the meantime prowling our posts here on TVF looking for signals that assault their confirmation bias - it is always from these two extremes that the vitriol flows when posts negative/positive threads are posted - they sit in the side lines ready (and predictably ready) to pounce.

But there is another problem - What happens when the information the expat sees is misunderstood before he inevitably applies his confirmation bias? This is not a pointless question where language and cultural barriers to understanding exist.

The problem then arises of Confirmation Bias on completely wrong information - One way or the other.

Here's an example (and please keep in mind what I said regarding what the subject of this thread is and is not):

Just after I dropped off to get on with my studies, this thread appeared: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/680852-for-those-who-dont-like-it/

Opening Post extracted as follows:

"Just been to the Remembrance Ceremony in UBON. A thread has been closed regarding being referred to as a farang. For those who do not like the term, take a look at this where Thai folk are paying there respect to us farangs, for soldiers who lost their lives or suffered. You should sit back and re-think stuff.....................…."

This is a perfect example of Expat Confirmation Bias based upon a cultural misunderstanding, the OP and the 19 other members who liked the thread plus numerous others who supported the observation misunderstood what was going on in the photo because they misunderstood the Thai cultural practice with respect to Wreaths.

Where westerners place the name of the person to whom the wreath is dedicated in the centre of the wreath (usually in a discreet card), Thai custom is to emblazon the centre of the wreath with the name of the person (or organisation) who is presenting the wreath.

The wreath in the photo is not "Thai folk paying there respect to us farangs, for soldiers who lost their lives or suffered"

It is a wreath which has dedicated by 'Farang of Ubon'.

The OP, and others, eagerly accepted this misunderstood piece of information because they believed it supported their point of view.

Confirmation Bias, watch out for it, we all suffer it, and it colours the view every single one of us have of our life as expats (and much more beyond).

Edited December 20, 2013 by GuestHouse

[kannot]

u got more time than me that's for sure

[GuestHouse]

Not so, I just think faster.

[BookMan]

Good post OP. You make a good observation and I was also not aware about the Thai cultural practice of attributing the wreath name to the persons who donated it.

However, you have done some confirmation bias yourself.

Using your example of the 'farang of Ubon' post. I was one of those people who liked that post, but not for the reasons you have given , which were: "The OP, and others, eagerly accepted this misunderstood piece of information because they believed it supported their point of view. "

I take each post on its merits, giving a like for a post that hits a nerve for me at that particular moment of time. For that particular post, my Like had zero to do with my point of view regarding the word farang. For the other 18 people who liked it? I have no idea. Maybe they all had differing reasons?

Confirmation bias, easy to do.

[Gsxrnz]

I'm now confused. If I "like" your post and make a comment that I support your observations, am I committing confirmation bias?

Perplexed!!

Anyway, yes I support what you say in general. I'm occasionally guilty of applying my bias - but I think I'm able to apply it both ways, so does that make me balanced and able to see shades of grey rather than black and white? No doubt others will see me as a Thai apologist. One or two will see me as a Thailand critic, depending on the specific subject matter.

Right now I personally am having a bit of a tough time over a few things, emotionally speaking. I do see and hear things that on any other day would have made me smile, but the last couple of days they've made me shake my head and wonder what the hell I'm doing here.

Tomorrow I expect to laugh at those same things. It's all about perspective and attitude. For those that always see the rosy, or always see the black......I do feel sorry for their slanted view on life.

[kannot]

Not so, I just think faster.

speed ain't everything...............ask the Tortoise

[CharlieH]

Mmmm, for me, as I have said many times, it's how it is written. how it is perceived by the reader, and that perception is also colored by mood.

The main point being without facial expression, tone of voice, verbal inflexion, and with human communication being 90% non verbal (possibly higher).

We are all capable of jumping to the wrong conclusion or meaning of a line or two of text.

Edited December 20, 2013 by CharlieH

[weegee]

Now this is a topic worth following.....You all make sense...sometimes missing from TVF....

I commend all of you who have posted a reply....

Congratulations Guesthouse....This is a positive post.

[krisb]

Everybody has conformation bias as you put it. Freedom of choice and freedom of speech and being open to interpretation. There will always be a left wing and a right wing and somewhere in between, and hopefully these attributes will remain strong for generations to come, long after we've gone.

Btw, I appreciate the way you think GH

[weegee]

You haven't posted lately guesthouse....thanks....good to hear from the old posters who talk straight when needed and give us a laugh on other occasions. That's what helps new comers....Something missing lately here on TVF....Remember when we could log on and have a laugh? I miss that.

[thaiblether]

One time I wear yellow dress in Chiang Mai and Tuk tuk tryto kill me because he think I am democrat.

What you say him? You not know what to say

[bender92]

Blah, blah, blah. Boring crap.

[BoonToong]

Excellent OP, and just what I was thinking

Edited December 21, 2013 by BoonToong

[Docno]

This is not an instance of confirmation from what I can tell. To show that it is, you'd have to demonstrate that the people who have negative attitudes towards Thailand interpreted the wreath differently and that both groups had the same starting knowledge. I don't this in the original thread. I think it's simply a cultural misinterpretation. It's quite possible that 'thai-negatives' would have the same (apparently wrong) interpretation of the wreath ... we simply don't know.

[ozyjon]

Too Long, i couldn't read it all but i do like reading the replies, i think soooosloooow so i read short bit's. i like this forum because of the broad range of people that write on it,, keep going, write bullshit if you have to it just means you are contributing, blah blah blah oh how the life goes on.

[thhMan]

It still amazes me how people still need a blanket to justify themselves.

"Dear Doris, My balls are....... blah blah"

[seajae]

I what can I say, I like it, no I dont, yes I do, no I dont, actually I refuse to comment as I do not want to show any agreement one way or the other in case I am pre judged

[NoshowJones]

You haven't posted lately guesthouse....thanks....good to hear from the old posters who talk straight when needed and give us a laugh on other occasions. That's what helps new comers....Something missing lately here on TVF....Remember when we could log on and have a laugh? I miss that.

The problem with wanting to have a laugh is people have different senses of humour, what someone thinks is funny, is offensive to someone else, the flaming starts and some of us end up on holiday.

[spambot]

Nice piece of work.

Its difficult to generalize and I am sure that there are certain aspect of bias from a mindset that has 'settled' - into somewhere unhealthy.

However there are also those that see the headline and contribute - Not because they are 'settled', but rather they are active in a thought and the subject is real and happening to them right now or they are fearful that it might happen to them or even worse It has happened to them.

Everyday on this forum we all see subjects that talk to us directly that are real: rejected visa (or related), problems with our Thai girlfriends , cheating, dual pricing and scam etc.

I am not sure that all the conflict and reasons used for reading one type of a particular subject is just about a poorly constructed or an unhealthy bias, but rather it might be because of hurt and fear and then respond within anxiety in the pursuit of real change. It is probable that some people on this forum select their subjects and write their words not because they have become damaged, but more because they are human and care enough to figure this thing out to ensure they can keep on taking the chances they do.

Edited December 21, 2013 by spambot

[Netizen]

A rambling rant fuelled by the lager of loquacity.

Wars occur when rich and wealthy people of different countries have opposing views and settle those views by using the wretched masses as cannon fodder setting them upon each other murderously by using intense dogma and propaganda to rob the wretched masses of their humanity, sanity, reason and rationality.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Netizen

[CapeCobra]

I like the post. But, I am biased, as I enjoy heavy books on difficult subjects. For many, the confirmation bias seems to be a survival mechanism. When it is too late for changing stupid, unsound opinions, some tend to stick to them, rather, than admitting utter defeat, or failed life plans.

On a lighter note, the wreath story reminded me of this joke.

Two women are on their way back from a night out when they get desperate for a piss. They're halfway through a graveyard and no one's around so they drop their pants and go behind a couple of gravestones, the first women wipes her fanny with her knickers and the second uses a wreath.The next day the husbands are at the pub and the first one says;

"I'll have to keep an eye on my missus from now on, she went out last night and came back with no knickers on!"

And the second replies;

"That's nothing, mine came home with a card wedged halfway up her arse saying 'We'll always miss you, from all the lads at the station'!"

[bigbamboo]

If Guest House is this profound at half past five in the afternoon how deep will he get by the early hours of the morning?

[Time Traveller]

Ok so what you're saying is that the real person who donated the wreath is a Thai named Farang Ubon, or is that a case of confirmation bias?

[how241]

Not so, I just think faster.

ha ha ha....good reply.

[farang000999]

The dudes with the positive confirmation bias imagine themselves as some kind of novelty in Thailand, like a minor celebrity and there is nothing they hate more than the sight of a another farang who ruins that fantasy.

Edited December 21, 2013 by farang000999

[pigeonjake]

well i dont understand it,,,

i just read what i like to read and post what i like to post,

so am i bias,????? i havnt got a bloody clue

[Suradit69]

Take for an example two expats who have differing views of life in Thailand, the one loves his life in Thailand, the second has fallen out of love with his life in Thailand. Both will experience their day to day life in Thailand through their own window of confirmation bias.

Confirmation Bias, watch out for it, we all suffer it, and it colours the view every single one of us have of our life as expats (and much more beyond).

But how is the bias derived to begin with?

Some people are generally positive, happy, content people who have a bias that enables them to look at most things, not just things in Thailand, in a positive way, while others will always be cynical and see every glass half-empty no matter if it's filled to the brim.

For those who seem to be primarily positive or negative about life in Thailand, the bias may have developed because we are genuinely pleased with life in Thailand or because our experience has been mainly negative, so the bias arose from valid personal experiences. Hardly a reason to "watch out for it."

There are any number of essentially negative posts about some aspects of life in Thailand that are stated in reasonable, balanced terms and to which I would not react since I am well aware that life here is not perfect.

On the other hand I will respond to some of the endless whining about trivial issues in Thailand especially when the posters seem to operate on the assumption these things only happen in Thailand and would never happen back in farangville. Those posts are generally irrational and absurd and usually an emotional reaction to some isolated incident that they then whip into a gross generalization, so my response is not motivated by a blinding bias that leaves me unable to see things from a balanced perspective, but because the comments made in a particular thread are overwhelmingly negative and should not be left unchallenged.

And, despite what some people contend, there are numerous posts that are simply racist. Saying all Thai people are this or that and all Thai people hate all farang etc. deserves a response and also deserves "likes" for posts that react to such nonsense. That doesn't imply that I think all Thai people are saints and geniuses.

In your example regarding the wreath, you have no idea why people responded positively to certain posts, but because your explanation fits your agenda you conveniently and unjustifiably use those "likes" to illustrate your point. As Bookman's has shown, he wasn't blinded by the bias you fabricated to bolster your thesis, but because he simply liked or agreed with something an individual said.

I do agree that some people are inclined to see a glass half full while others will look at the same glass as half empty and that that may need to be kept in mind when making important decisions, but it's not that difficult for most non-institutionalized adults to distinguish between posts that are over the top in either direction. Since the balance on TV tends to tilt toward the foaming at the mouth irrationally negative rants, I'm pretty much always going to go the other way, not because I see everything here through rose colored confirmation bias, but because there needs to be some foaming at the mouth positive rants to regain some balance.

Depending on Wikipedia as a reference will probably introduce a few biases or lapses as well.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Suradit69

[GuestHouse]

S69,

I don't see anything in that what you have sad which does not fit with what I have said.

Though you are missing the point about my reference to the 'likes' in the post I refer to. The post I refer to is factually wrong, making a point by reference to a complete misunderstanding of a Thai cultural norm. Perhaps you are right and I am reading too much into those 'likes', maybe people who liked it, liked the complete misunderstanding of a Thai cultural norm that it was based upon.

I do agree, some people are predisposed to seeing life from the positive angle while others are predisposed to seeing life from the negative angle. And I absolutely agree that our original point of bias comes from our own past personal experience played against the predisposition (positive or negative) that we have.

Though it is clearly a mistake to believe that this predisposition is fixed and unchanging - I've seen people change their outlook in both directions following experiences of life - hence term 'life changing experience'. It happens.

As to the response of 'haters' well they are the outliers, the people at the black and white margins - as I clearly state, most of us are not out there, we are in the grey area in between, our views oscillating about the middle.

I wonder though what you imagine my 'agenda' to be. I regard my views and outlook as liberal, incase Americans reading that misunderstand, that's not political liberal, its liberal in the sense of allowing people to express opinions AND to challenge opinions. If they can do so with reasoned argument rather than personal attacks and calls to emotion all the better.

-

Which brings me back to 'Haters'.

My definition of 'Haters' is not people who hate Thai people, Thai language or Thai culture.

Its people who hate others expressing opinions they themselves do not agree with.

Those sitting at the black and white fringes of opinion about life in Thailand and Thai people share one thing in common, their hatred of other people expressing opinions which challenges their own position.

The argument that all Thai people are (insert negative comment) is as ridiculous as the argument that all Thai people are (insert positive comment).

Any well balanced individual in possession of developed and functioning frontal lobes is able to understand life in Thailand as a balance between positives and negatives, not simply good, not simply bad but a balance.

The sad thing is, that it is these haters who dominate the discussion, prowling the forum ready to pounce on anything that affronts their world view.

[GuestHouse]

Still interested to hear what you believe my 'Agenda' might be?

[NeverSure]

Not so, I just think faster.

You must type fast too, to take a page from Wikipedia (yeah, that's how it's spelled) and turn it into a novel.

I actually don't think you understand "confirmation bias" no matter how fast you may think you think.