Bangkok overrun by huge protest

[Emptyset]

Out of interest, which province?

Almost all Isaan provinces have continued to elect the same scumbags, year in year out for 20+ years, since they got the right to vote post 1992. The party name changes, the promises change, but the family name of who they vote for does not. To actually choose a candidate would require confidence that your vote was cast and could not be seen by someone else (unlikely in rural Thailand), a solid understanding of what you are voting for (or against) - impossible in today's environment, an actual valid choice - difficult when all parties are basically offering much the same thing (popularism) so you go with the one you like the most and the one you know, even if that's the bloke/woman who has skimmed most of the money that should have gone to schools, roads, infrastructure and rooks you on money loans, lottery, retail and rice milling in the area.

This is changing gradually. It used to be like this and still is in many areas but the local godfathers have far less control that they used to. Some provinces are still run like personal fiefdoms - e.g. Suthep's Surat Thani, Baharn's Suphan, Newin's Burriram etc. There are people that voted for these local MPs from smaller party but still consider themselves 'red' and voted PT for the party list. I don't want to suggest pork barrel politics doesn't still play a role, it does. But they heyday of the jao por type of politician was the early to mid-90s.

Chris Baker, who you rightly respect, has noted these changes in the past:

'Then Thaksin changed the game in national politics. He promised some attractive re-distributive schemes, and delivered them. He centralised control over a fifth of the budget under his own executive authority, and toured the country dishing this out. The party and the prime minister became more important patrons than the local MP. Although the 2007 Constitution has reversed some of this change, the memory still dominates. In the last couple of years, there have been studies of election practice in the North, Northeast, and South.

The decision on casting a vote is now very complex and involves the party, the candidate, and the money. In the South, voters feel a strong emotional pull to vote Democrat. In the North and Northeast, Thaksin's schemes have created a strong pull towards the People Power Party/Thai Rak Thai. Yet the candidate also undergoes scrutiny. Is he a local person, someone close to us? Can he get things done, and does he have the track record to prove it? Is he reasonably honest? Does he have the right kind of friends? Finally, does he prove his generosity with a gift? Only candidates known to have modest wealth are excused this obligation, yet can still be elected on grounds of their social contribution.'

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/09/01/opinion/opinion_30082102.php

If ANYONE should be accused of being an amartaya, it should be the very clans that each province/zone the Isaan people keep choosing, year in year out, to elect. Those godfather clans are for the most part, the ones directly responsible for ensuring that the people in their area are kept in their place, far more than this idiotic claim that it is some faceless powerful people in Bangkok. When the garlic farmers were screwed with the China FTA, when all of Thai rice farmers will eventually suffer massively when the country runs out of money to keep paying them to produce rotting landfill, when the chicken flu crisis kicked in wiping out the industry.....who suffered and who won? Oh most certainly the farmers suffered. But who didn't? The large associated companies with a direct connection to the government. Whose relationships work on both sides of the house. And the various godfathers, who make their money on the government infrastructure projects which should really be a benefit to all Thais, not just them.

Amartaya has a specific meaning relating to the aristocracy, so of course the provincial business elite shouldn't be accused of being amartaya. Obviously though there's some truth to what you say. But this is something that people will learn gradually. In the end, you have to trust them to know what will benefit them or not. Do you think dictatorship has been any better? And it IS the amaat's fault. They controlled things for much of the 20th century. You can't blame the provincial elite for taking advantage of people's lack of education. These local godfathers are the people who've played a large role in the country's democratisation since they realized early on - or back in the 70s at least - that the only way they could have any influence over business policies and get themselves a slice of the cake was through electoral democracy.

Sure, there's a lot not to like about it, but it's changing. And for detailed insight as to why rural people have considered it in their best interests to vote for these people, I suggest reading Yoshinori Nishizaki's Political Authority and Provincial Identity in Thailand.

From a review: 'Nishizaki uses the career of former Thai prime minister and long-time Suphanburi member of parliament Banhan Sinlapa-acha to explore the political world of provincial Thailand. He casts his book, first, as a critique of the long influential—often painfully influential, for its familiarity among scholars not specializing on Thailand—“chao pho” or “godfather” school of Thai politics and, second, as an examination of the bases of Banhan’s support among the people of Suphanburi and thus of the nature of the much noted urban-rural divide in Thai politics. In his effort to rethink “domination in the Thai countryside” (p. 7), Nishizaki seeks to de-emphasize the violence, electoral fraud, “private patronage”, and “pork-barrel politics” (p. 14) central to the “chao pho”-centered understanding of provincial politics in post-1970Thailand. Rejecting related assumptions about the ignorance and venality of the provincial voter, he proposes an “ideational” (p. 189) and collective rather than materialistic and selfish basis for the electoral support that Banhan long enjoyed in Suphanburi.'

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2012/05/04/review-of-political-authority-and-provincial-identity-tlcnmrev-xxxvi/

Of course, the 2007 Constitution was designed so that these Chao Pho you criticize could regain their influence and hope to win out against PPP. That was why the junta tried to get smaller parties to promise they wouldn't side with Thaksin. Plus they used their own party, Puea Phandin, with select MPs of local influence and vote buying, to try to influence the result. Problem is, they were soundly beaten by PPP for the most part, despite spending 3 times the cash. At the moment, the elite that hate Thaksin would love it if these local cliques had more influence, because if they have total control, it's much easier to buy them and have them form a coalition with the Democrats. That was the plan in 07, it didn't work, but obviously they eventually got Newin to switch sides. That's why Abhisit's cabinet had more provincial 'influence' that even PT's does now.

Perhaps you should discuss this point with your wife; I will guess she is from the same roots as my family (poor illiterate rice farmers). Our difference is I believe that politicians are elected to serve us, not to 'give us stuff'.

Each person in a democracy is allowed to keep voting in the same morons and no doubt they will given the sorry state of Thai politics at the moment.

I don't personally place any real faith in a Chinese monopolist walking around in a Fendi robe with poor people as proof he knows how to connect to the poor, or worse still, her sister who has zero credentials to run a country who is backed up by the icecream gang and a guy who flaunted the law hiding his son to escape a murder charge - in fact its hard to think of people more suited to the title 'amartaya' than this lot.

It's funny you say this because Chris Baker actually said in a lecture a couple of years ago that whilst Thaksin presented the 30 baht healthcare as a 'right' for all citizens, the Democrats presented their policies as 'gifts'. Baker suggested that the Democrats didn't understand the new way of politics in which citizens expected to be spoken to as equals. The Democrats still presented themselves in a way that was suggestive of the old bureacratic way of running the state, where poor people came into the provincial government offices, wai'ing, bending and scraping at the knee, thanking the bureaucrat humbly for disdainfully tossing him a bone. I wasn't sure about this because I know that Thaksin did like to present policies as a gift directly from him. But even the ECT comissioner suggested the other day that people are beginning to understand these things are not gifts provided by individual politicians, but policies carried out by the government using taxpayers money.

I agree obviously that Thaksin isn't the best choice. The problem is the more they're insulted and the more people threaten to take their right to vote away, the closer they draw to him. All this stuff that Suthep and the scornful comments that go with it is just playing right into his hands.

Also, again, amartaya has a specific meaning. lol. They're all elites, in the end, but there are different types of elite. Real reformers will stand against both the business elite AND the aristocracy, because they're both complicit in holding genuine progress and reform back.

[diceq]

One thing good about the protests is that the Thai baht is losing value. That means more beer for me

[Yunla]

Not a bad post but you neglect the fact that a vote is viewed as a commodity to be traded and sold to the highest bidder in the north! democracy does not come into it.

I see the problem as not vote-buying, or any other pre-election issue. I see the problem entirely as post-election. In a nation with such a fragile and constantly in turmoil political system, the idea of the "democracy as a tightrope walk" does not apply, a nation such as this would have to first learn to climb the ladders reaching the tightrope, before the careful balancing act which are the higher levels of refinement and artistry of the master tightrope walker. As a disclaimer to that, I love Thailand and Thai people and have more respect for them than I can fit into these little bulletin boxes here. But the political system here is pure Gates-of-Hades almost constantly, and so you have to forget the fancy higher-level stuff and go for a more basic functionalist model. Example, again, the party with most votes (be that bought or pressured or w/e) is essentially a figurehead for state business, has a minor commanding presence in Parliament, but does not hold so much power as it currently does. Policy process is strictly regulated to compensate for the huge national gulf in party support, vested interests and corruption. Policy is debated quite literally to death, and voted on based on "benefit to nation" alone. This is a "blunt-instrument" Parliament, a crude system, designed to get the ball rolling. This way all voters feel they have had a say, and that action is being taken. Regulation and corruption-null measures have to be worked on by new external watchdogs.

But the point is that you can do all that within Parliamentary democracy. Suthep's solution is the old joke about "there's not enough hats for everyone" but instead of him saying "well let's make some more hats", he says "lets chop off some heads." My own view is that there isn't any problem you can not outgrow industrially as a nation, manufacturing and industrial power can bring great affluence to all citizens. America's standard of living has declined by 2/3 in the last fifty years, due to the crumbling manufacturing base. Thailand can overcome financial problems, and social problems, all it takes is that the decision-making powers of Parliament are changed from dictatorship-based to consensus-based, and that can be achieved by the points mentioned earlier. The critical thing is to not make people feel their votes are meaningless, if your life is already dirt poor then your vote was the only thing you had that made you feel you were a real citizen.

Edited December 23, 2013 by Yunla

[hawker9000]

My missus is red to the core as are most Issan folk. Not because they are stupid, ill educated and unthinking morons ...no...because they despise everything that the Bangkok wealthy and Amart stand for. I think it was in the late 50's that the Issan dialect was banned from schools... so English is actually their 3rd language. The wealthy in Bangkok send their children to international schools whilst ALL previous governments have purposely put in place practices which disenfranchise the rural poor from a good education. Keep them in their place where they belong ! ... a case in point is the convoluted written languge..poor old Somchai working in the paddy from dawn to dusk has little time left after mastering Thai to explore any other educational routes. The Thai culture of patronage, feudalism, face and respecting a Poo Yai (irrespective of how they got their wealth... I'm thinking Suthep here)... all comes together to explain why the rural poor will take a chance on the Thaksin regime.... He can walk with the people... Abhisit? I think not. So to all you posters who say that Thaksin just 'bought' the votes .. you are being stupid beyond belief. If someone is going to give them 200 B ... they will take it...even from the Democrats...THEN .. go and vote for who they want anyway. The real problem is that the Democrats have consistently shown to be incapable as a strong opposition, as a consequence we have the so called 'democratic dictatorship', this, together with a piss weak judicial system with no real checks and balances and we have what is modern Thailand.

Making the assumption that everyone in Bangkok and everyone protesting are wealthy and amart is just as bad as assuming that everyone north of Bangkok is stupid, ill educated and unthinking morons.

Okay...and that is exactly the point: I know many, who walk in the protests and say" I don't like Suthep"- what they don't get is: as long as you walk his walk, cheer his speeches and don't walk out, when the mad man appears YOU ARE BACKING HIM UP!

And another point: they are not the elite, not the amart, agreed!

But they are a) backing their cause and b ) will be used by them and don't even know!

You're being far too simplistic, and there's apparently plenty YOU don't get! We're "backing him up"? Really?! Are we on a 5th grade playground? Lol. No. He's the means at hand. No more; no less. And to date has been fairly effective as such. A major piece if legislation set aside. A government dissolved. PM has fled the capital to her "comfort zone". Major opposition party to boycott an election seen as only a perpetuation of corruption & Thaksinocracy. That doesn't mean Suthep enjoys cult status among the protesters, as Thaksin does among his populist fan club. It's about getting rid of the Thaksin tumor once & for all; not pursuing sainthood for Suthep!

Sent from my ASUS Transformer Pad TF700T using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Mackie]

One thing good about the protests is that the Thai baht is losing value. That means more beer for me

It's nothing to do with the protest. Abhisit's government had to deal with the far longer protest and yet managed to keep Thai baht stable. Thai baht is in free fall because the current government lost 13 billion USD on their criminal rice scheme and blew a massive hole in Thai economy. Those incompetent bastards knew very well that their criminal and irresponsible actions were going to cause economic instability and inflation in Thailand. All those populist schemes of theirs will cost Thais and Thai economy dearly. The poor will pay through their noses. They're only pawns in the chess game between different Thai elites. And pawns are always sacrificed. Thaksin has already thrown them under the bus. Poor buggers still don't know it.

[diceq]

One thing good about the protests is that the Thai baht is losing value. That means more beer for me

It's nothing to do with the protest. Abhisit's government had to deal with the far longer protest and yet managed to keep Thai baht stable. Thai baht is in free fall because the current government lost 13 billion USD on their criminal rice scheme and blew a massive hole in Thai economy. Those incompetent bastards knew very well that their criminal and irresponsible actions were going to cause economic instability and inflation in Thailand. All those populist schemes of theirs will cost Thais and Thai economy dearly. The poor will pay through their noses. They're only pawns in the chess game between different Thai elites. And pawns are always sacrificed. Thaksin has already thrown them under the bus. Poor buggers still don't know it.

No it has nothing to do with the protests. That the Thai baht hits a record low just after the "democratic" party announces it will boycott the elections is just a big co-incidence.

[BeforeTigers]

Having FAILED to remove the govt by any of his moving feasts of final, absolute deadlines, he is now ThREATENING those who do wish to participate in the democratic process. What a sad and sorry excuse for someone meant to be serving the interests of the people ( corruption, insurrection and murder charges notwithstanding).

Yesterday's rally was a major flop for Suthep . It achieved nothing, so now he reverts to the previous policy of intimidation and implied violence. I wouldn't trust this guy for a second

I dunno, boss.

The House was dissolved, Yingluck's title was changed and elections have been called out of season.

... oh, and his name is still in the headlines every 5 minutes.

From his point of view, I dont think that comes as much discouragement.

Certainly not a total failure.

[LingLek]

It becomes more and more a Thai soap opera, with bad actors. On one side a PM remote controlled but legally appointed and on the other side a corrupt politician with personnel hate towards TS claiming that he speaks for the Thai population. If this would be the case why not facing the election and than with a democrat lead government all the changes could be implemented. He can't agree to that because he knows he would loose the election. Now he wants to block the election and ensure that nobody goes for voting taking away the basic right of each Thai to express their will. What is wrong with the people that they don't understand that on the end it could only mean a total split of the Thai society, ideas of unelected government different voting rights for different classes of Thai people is far from Democracy.

I wouldn't overstate personal hate as motivation. It's all about power, one alpha male replacing another at the top of the hill, that's all. The Thaksin issue is grotesquely overstated. Thaksin is elsewhere, powerless and silenced. Perhaps the simple fact that Yingluck is female--the 'Oh a woman can't govern, must be the brother who's in charge' argument of the terminally misogynistic--gets in the way of balanced judgement.

[thailiketoo]

No it has nothing to do with the protests. That the Thai baht hits a record low just after the "democratic" party announces it will boycott the elections is just a big co-incidence.

Yup big change 1 baht in 3 months.

[hawker9000]

It becomes more and more a Thai soap opera, with bad actors. On one side a PM remote controlled but legally appointed and on the other side a corrupt politician with personnel hate towards TS claiming that he speaks for the Thai population. If this would be the case why not facing the election and than with a democrat lead government all the changes could be implemented. He can't agree to that because he knows he would loose the election. Now he wants to block the election and ensure that nobody goes for voting taking away the basic right of each Thai to express their will. What is wrong with the people that they don't understand that on the end it could only mean a total split of the Thai society, ideas of unelected government different voting rights for different classes of Thai people is far from Democracy.

I wouldn't overstate personal hate as motivation. It's all about power, one alpha male replacing another at the top of the hill, that's all. The Thaksin issue is grotesquely overstated. Thaksin is elsewhere, powerless and silenced. Perhaps the simple fact that Yingluck is female--the 'Oh a woman can't govern, must be the brother who's in charge' argument of the terminally misogynistic--gets in the way of balanced judgement.

Elsewhere: yeap. But lots of workers "telecommute" these days. Lol

Powerless: more-or-less, thanks only to a dissolved government, and a sister chased up to the Mekong somewhere...

Silenced: 'guess you're not on the invited list to the morning telcons

Tired attempts like this to obfuscate Thaksin's role in all this must look ok to you when you read them back to yourself, but a whole lot of thais apparently aren't being fooled... A WHOLE lot! Enough to bring matters to their current state anyway. Time for some new approach?

Edited December 23, 2013 by hawker9000

[Maha Sarakham Marty]

Here we go again!! Another thread where posters are fighting each other about who are "the rightest of the right". Most of them sadly with limited knowledge of Thai society as a whole and even less when it comes to politics!! But good entertainment!!

May I suggest a solution to the political divide:

marieantoinetteexecute-a8b7aa02f3a17f0904724853bbfc83dc2b9c738a-s6-c30.jpg

Bye bye amart!!

Yep, bye bye Thaksin

[SPIKECM]

I know this is outside your point, but Thais everywhere think that thy have some unique understanding of "their" political situation. Every Yellow and every Red is just as conceited in their view point. Suthep takes the prize though. What they all fail to understand is that Thailand is a hundred or so years behind Europe in its social political history. There is nothing unique to Thailand's problems, except that they are going through it all in an age of instant communications and the internet. That is what it makes it all unpredictable. No Thai or European can work out where this is all going, except that Suthep is making the road ahead extremely dangerous.

Suthep is only the mouthpiece for the slow launch of a miliatry coup. The military with the help of influential others is using Suthep to create an emergency that requires a military intervention to reinstall the loyal subjects, the democrats, as the leading party and at the same time make changes they and the other one in charge favor in the constitution. The democracy of one person one vote is too much of a threat to the traditional institutions in Thailand. A political crisis has to occur in order for the military intervention to appear legitimate locally and internationally. The ongoing use of lese majeste to silence critics is a wonderous thing since the charges can never be revealed. A brilliant way to maintain military control of the country and silence critics while the lapdog democrats provide a democratic cover for the true powers behind the scene.

This is exactly right. Suthep has direct support from very high places, which we are not allowed to mention here. There is in fact a whole aspect of this situation which cannot be mentioned either on this forum or by the Western media who are based in Thailand.

Here in the UK the Thai community probably have a better understanding of exactly whats going on than anyone else and can openly discuss aspects which are prohibited elsewhere.

Edited December 23, 2013 by SPIKECM

[dukebowling]

Bangkok Post said the security officials have estimated 270,000, and we all know being in the control of the government that the quote will be definitely played down.

So was it the big million + ??

Possibly.

Bluesky was reporting 3.5 million. police reported 135,000. so somewhere int he middle is probably correct. I would say about a million or more!

About 135,000 is more likely. See stadium pic with a capacity of 102,329:

This does not even show everyone.

To get a million, you would fill most of the streets of central Bangkok which has a total population of only 8 million. Look at the protests in Brazil. They had a total of one million spread out in 80 cities with 300,000 in Rio De Janeiro, They make this protest look like a fire drill.

Here is a pic from Rio De Janeiro (June 2013):

Edited December 23, 2013 by dukebowling

[hawker9000]

You wanna' talk about road safety? OK. Let's do. The road started getting dangerous before Suthep had anything to do with it, and would remain so even if he were somehow removed from it. Why does no one from the other side of the aisle want to ever discuss removing the major, pre-existing, persistent danger factor on this "dangerous road"? Hmmmm? It might not take much more than a revoked passport and formal request for extradition, with a certain PM's signature and unified government voice behind it.

I know this is outside your point, but Thais everywhere think that thy have some unique understanding of "their" political situation. Every Yellow and every Red is just as conceited in their view point. Suthep takes the prize though. What they all fail to understand is that Thailand is a hundred or so years behind Europe in its social political history. There is nothing unique to Thailand's problems, except that they are going through it all in an age of instant communications and the internet. That is what it makes it all unpredictable. No Thai or European can work out where this is all going, except that Suthep is making the road ahead extremely dangerous.

Suthep is only the mouthpiece for the slow launch of a miliatry coup. The military with the help of influential others is using Suthep to create an emergency that requires a military intervention to reinstall the loyal subjects, the democrats, as the leading party and at the same time make changes they and the other one in charge favor in the constitution. The democracy of one person one vote is too much of a threat to the traditional institutions in Thailand. A political crisis has to occur in order for the military intervention to appear legitimate locally and internationally. The ongoing use of lese majeste to silence critics is a wonderous thing since the charges can never be revealed. A brilliant way to maintain military control of the country and silence critics while the lapdog democrats provide a democratic cover for the true powers behind the scene.

This is exactly right. Suthep has direct support from very high places, which we are not allowed to mention here. There is in fact a whole aspect of this situation which cannot be mentioned either on this forum or by the Western media who are based in Thailand.

Here in the UK the Thai community probably have a better understanding of exactly whats going on than anyone else and can openly discuss aspects which are prohibited elsewhere.

[thrilled]

There was A post about buying votes.In the US politicians do that all the time.They say vote for me I will put you on welfare give ya food stamps.Thats only A small part.I could go on and on.

[jolyonpc]

""Whoever wants to go inside to register will have to pass through us," he said.

"If we do not hold the country by February 2, we will shut the country down. No one will go to vote," he added."

Did Suthep really say this? I know the APP seems to take a pro govt line in most of its stories, but they don't make stuff up. Suthep's authoritarian, PT like attitude of "my way is the only way" is getting worse. Man's barking mad and gorged on power, dangerous combination. He will be no better than PT and their red stormtroopers if he carries out these threats.

Suthep is acting very foolishly. The problem is that as everybody knows, Thailand's future hinges on the reaching, or just approaching, a nexus-point of consensus between rich/poor urban/rural. Problem number two, this is the bigger problem, and the one which Suthep's mad scheme totally does not factor in, is that the rural majority want democratic votes, they are the majority and also the serf class and so they feel that having their votes respected is very important. Suthep overturning the elected Govt and essentially spitting on all those casted votes, is going to cause immensely bad feelings around the nation.

On a practical level, yes Yingluck is no good, yes Thaksin should face additional massmurder charges for the 2500 deaths he ordered, and his nepotistic plundering of the State Fund, there is no dispute from me. But what was good is that PTP were voted for, got into power, and so their supporters put down the pitchforks and said "ok we've got our electoral rights now" etc. And they then started gradually criticising their own PTP members for failing, which is totally natural healthy democracy, and heading in the right direction. Suthep derailed that slow but natural process. The rural / poor thinking that it was great they had got Government's ear, but they didn't like their leadership, for failing to improve infrastructure etc. So they would put more internal pressure on PTP to act like a political party not just insurgents. This is very slow process. Meantime, Dems were gaining popularity also from the PTP failing.

The problems can all be solved without any of the Suthep stuff.

Re; Yingluck abuse of the policy-making machinery, can all be solved by Parliamentary reform, Parliament as a concept is a fluid system which invites augmentation to "get around" nation-specific difficulties, overhauling the mechanisms relating to the power balance of the various parties, their floor-time, and also the policy queueing system of which needs to be regulated by an external body. Thaksin passport issue should never reach the debate floor, especially during flood crisis as it did, that is just ridiculous. This can be solved by strictly regulating policy-submission and queueing. Those reforms take a long time, it also takes a long time for radical new parties such as PTP to settle into more progressive models. Especially as they began as a hero-worship cult. But you have to work with the materials you've got.

However, to scrap the whole process above, and just say "your votes don't matter" (paraphrasing Suthep's conceptual Assembly idea) is inviting disaster. I hope to be proved wrong on all this.

Thanks for what seems to be a very level-headed overview of this sad situation. I'm planning to start a new phase of life with my wife's family up in Kalasin and really hope some intelligent solution or at least compromise will be found. I wish Thailand all the very best - it sure needs it!

edit: mister coffee & typos

[SPIKECM]

Your problem is that the vast majority of people vote for Thaksin's party. Have a look Suthep's form if you want to talk about corruption. You cannot be in political office in Thailand without being corrupt. I am as cynical of Thaksin's party as many...Chalerm and all the rest of the bandits, but if democracy has any meaning in Thailand, you have to respect which bunch of bandits the people vote for. It isn't any more complicated than that. Suthep and his People's Council should be one big joke, but he unfortunately has a big gang showing support for him. That makes him dangerous.

The road Thailand is going down is one of social and political development. Thaksin was well overdue. It could have been Communism, but the US managed to put a stop to that during the Vietnam War by means which we cannot go into. In other countries, Socialism was the attraction of the masses. In Thailand, no one could possibly trust the State that much and so populism was the watered down alternative.

Back to road safety. It is a road which Thailand inevitably will have to go down, so yes, Suthep with his uncompromising and arrogant stance is making that road more dangerous than it needs to be. The Democrats need to turn themselves into an effective opposition party and attack all that is wrong with the PT party. Suthep is just not interested in that and sadly has the backing of far too many, although only a fraction of the population.

You wanna' talk about road safety? OK. Let's do. The road started getting dangerous before Suthep had anything to do with it, and would remain so even if he were somehow removed from it. Why does no one from the other side of the aisle want to ever discuss removing the major, pre-existing, persistent danger factor on this "dangerous road"? Hmmmm? It might not take much more than a revoked passport and formal request for extradition, with a certain PM's signature and unified government voice behind it.

I know this is outside your point, but Thais everywhere think that thy have some unique understanding of "their" political situation. Every Yellow and every Red is just as conceited in their view point. Suthep takes the prize though. What they all fail to understand is that Thailand is a hundred or so years behind Europe in its social political history. There is nothing unique to Thailand's problems, except that they are going through it all in an age of instant communications and the internet. That is what it makes it all unpredictable. No Thai or European can work out where this is all going, except that Suthep is making the road ahead extremely dangerous.

Suthep is only the mouthpiece for the slow launch of a miliatry coup. The military with the help of influential others is using Suthep to create an emergency that requires a military intervention to reinstall the loyal subjects, the democrats, as the leading party and at the same time make changes they and the other one in charge favor in the constitution. The democracy of one person one vote is too much of a threat to the traditional institutions in Thailand. A political crisis has to occur in order for the military intervention to appear legitimate locally and internationally. The ongoing use of lese majeste to silence critics is a wonderous thing since the charges can never be revealed. A brilliant way to maintain military control of the country and silence critics while the lapdog democrats provide a democratic cover for the true powers behind the scene.

This is exactly right. Suthep has direct support from very high places, which we are not allowed to mention here. There is in fact a whole aspect of this situation which cannot be mentioned either on this forum or by the Western media who are based in Thailand.

Here in the UK the Thai community probably have a better understanding of exactly whats going on than anyone else and can openly discuss aspects which are prohibited elsewhere.

[atyclb]

It becomes more and more a Thai soap opera, with bad actors. On one side a PM remote controlled but legally appointed and on the other side a corrupt politician with personnel hate towards TS claiming that he speaks for the Thai population. If this would be the case why not facing the election and than with a democrat lead government all the changes could be implemented. He can't agree to that because he knows he would loose the election. Now he wants to block the election and ensure that nobody goes for voting taking away the basic right of each Thai to express their will. What is wrong with the people that they don't understand that on the end it could only mean a total split of the Thai society, ideas of unelected government different voting rights for different classes of Thai people is far from Democracy.

What's wrong with people who don't understand that a country that allows vote buying, position buying and buying "justice" is not a democracy?

The countries laws and constitution seem to be more or less democratic. If only that pesky culture/tradition of vote buying, position buying and buying "justice" would go away.

[paz]

There was A post about buying votes.In the US politicians do that all the time.They say vote for me I will put you on welfare give ya food stamps.Thats only A small part.I could go on and on.

They say "ya" ? So good that you don't go "on and on".

[longway]

Bangkok Post said the security officials have estimated 270,000, and we all know being in the control of the government that the quote will be definitely played down.

So was it the big million + ??

Possibly.

Bluesky was reporting 3.5 million. police reported 135,000. so somewhere int he middle is probably correct. I would say about a million or more!

About 135,000 is more likely. See stadium pic with a capacity of 102,329:

Stadium.jpg

This does not even show everyone.

To get a million, you would fill most of the streets of central Bangkok which has a total population of only 8 million. Look at the protests in Brazil. They had a total of one million spread out in 80 cities with 300,000 in Rio De Janeiro, They make this protest look like a fire drill.

Here is a pic from Rio De Janeiro (June 2013):

brazil 300000.jpg

The capacity of rajamangala is a little under 50,000

[longway]

My missus is red to the core as are most Issan folk. Not because they are stupid, ill educated and unthinking morons ...no...because they despise everything that the Bangkok wealthy and Amart stand for. I think it was in the late 50's that the Issan dialect was banned from schools... so English is actually their 3rd language. The wealthy in Bangkok send their children to international schools whilst ALL previous governments have purposely put in place practices which disenfranchise the rural poor from a good education. Keep them in their place where they belong ! ... a case in point is the convoluted written languge..poor old Somchai working in the paddy from dawn to dusk has little time left after mastering Thai to explore any other educational routes. The Thai culture of patronage, feudalism, face and respecting a Poo Yai (irrespective of how they got their wealth... I'm thinking Suthep here)... all comes together to explain why the rural poor will take a chance on the Thaksin regime.... He can walk with the people... Abhisit? I think not. So to all you posters who say that Thaksin just 'bought' the votes .. you are being stupid beyond belief. If someone is going to give them 200 B ... they will take it...even from the Democrats...THEN .. go and vote for who they want anyway. The real problem is that the Democrats have consistently shown to be incapable as a strong opposition, as a consequence we have the so called 'democratic dictatorship', this, together with a piss weak judicial system with no real checks and balances and we have what is modern Thailand.

So you are saying that this whole red shirt movement in isaan is based on ethnicity? Its nothing to do with class or democracy? And english is widely used all over isaan? Edited December 23, 2013 by longway

[longway]

Out of interest, which province?

Almost all Isaan provinces have continued to elect the same scumbags, year in year out for 20+ years, since they got the right to vote post 1992. The party name changes, the promises change, but the family name of who they vote for does not. To actually choose a candidate would require confidence that your vote was cast and could not be seen by someone else (unlikely in rural Thailand), a solid understanding of what you are voting for (or against) - impossible in today's environment, an actual valid choice - difficult when all parties are basically offering much the same thing (popularism) so you go with the one you like the most and the one you know, even if that's the bloke/woman who has skimmed most of the money that should have gone to schools, roads, infrastructure and rooks you on money loans, lottery, retail and rice milling in the area.

This is changing gradually. It used to be like this and still is in many areas but the local godfathers have far less control that they used to. Some provinces are still run like personal fiefdoms - e.g. Suthep's Surat Thani, Baharn's Suphan, Newin's Burriram etc. There are people that voted for these local MPs from smaller party but still consider themselves 'red' and voted PT for the party list. I don't want to suggest pork barrel politics doesn't still play a role, it does. But they heyday of the jao por type of politician was the early to mid-90s.

Chris Baker, who you rightly respect, has noted these changes in the past:

'Then Thaksin changed the game in national politics. He promised some attractive re-distributive schemes, and delivered them. He centralised control over a fifth of the budget under his own executive authority, and toured the country dishing this out. The party and the prime minister became more important patrons than the local MP. Although the 2007 Constitution has reversed some of this change, the memory still dominates. In the last couple of years, there have been studies of election practice in the North, Northeast, and South.

The decision on casting a vote is now very complex and involves the party, the candidate, and the money. In the South, voters feel a strong emotional pull to vote Democrat. In the North and Northeast, Thaksin's schemes have created a strong pull towards the People Power Party/Thai Rak Thai. Yet the candidate also undergoes scrutiny. Is he a local person, someone close to us? Can he get things done, and does he have the track record to prove it? Is he reasonably honest? Does he have the right kind of friends? Finally, does he prove his generosity with a gift? Only candidates known to have modest wealth are excused this obligation, yet can still be elected on grounds of their social contribution.'

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/09/01/opinion/opinion_30082102.php

If ANYONE should be accused of being an amartaya, it should be the very clans that each province/zone the Isaan people keep choosing, year in year out, to elect. Those godfather clans are for the most part, the ones directly responsible for ensuring that the people in their area are kept in their place, far more than this idiotic claim that it is some faceless powerful people in Bangkok. When the garlic farmers were screwed with the China FTA, when all of Thai rice farmers will eventually suffer massively when the country runs out of money to keep paying them to produce rotting landfill, when the chicken flu crisis kicked in wiping out the industry.....who suffered and who won? Oh most certainly the farmers suffered. But who didn't? The large associated companies with a direct connection to the government. Whose relationships work on both sides of the house. And the various godfathers, who make their money on the government infrastructure projects which should really be a benefit to all Thais, not just them.

Amartaya has a specific meaning relating to the aristocracy, so of course the provincial business elite shouldn't be accused of being amartaya. Obviously though there's some truth to what you say. But this is something that people will learn gradually. In the end, you have to trust them to know what will benefit them or not. Do you think dictatorship has been any better? And it IS the amaat's fault. They controlled things for much of the 20th century. You can't blame the provincial elite for taking advantage of people's lack of education. These local godfathers are the people who've played a large role in the country's democratisation since they realized early on - or back in the 70s at least - that the only way they could have any influence over business policies and get themselves a slice of the cake was through electoral democracy.

Sure, there's a lot not to like about it, but it's changing. And for detailed insight as to why rural people have considered it in their best interests to vote for these people, I suggest reading Yoshinori Nishizaki's Political Authority and Provincial Identity in Thailand.

From a review: 'Nishizaki uses the career of former Thai prime minister and long-time Suphanburi member of parliament Banhan Sinlapa-acha to explore the political world of provincial Thailand. He casts his book, first, as a critique of the long influentialoften painfully influential, for its familiarity among scholars not specializing on Thailandchao pho or godfather school of Thai politics and, second, as an examination of the bases of Banhans support among the people of Suphanburi and thus of the nature of the much noted urban-rural divide in Thai politics. In his effort to rethink domination in the Thai countryside (p. 7), Nishizaki seeks to de-emphasize the violence, electoral fraud, private patronage, and pork-barrel politics (p. 14) central to the chao pho-centered understanding of provincial politics in post-1970Thailand. Rejecting related assumptions about the ignorance and venality of the provincial voter, he proposes an ideational (p. 189) and collective rather than materialistic and selfish basis for the electoral support that Banhan long enjoyed in Suphanburi.'

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2012/05/04/review-of-political-authority-and-provincial-identity-tlcnmrev-xxxvi/

Of course, the 2007 Constitution was designed so that these Chao Pho you criticize could regain their influence and hope to win out against PPP. That was why the junta tried to get smaller parties to promise they wouldn't side with Thaksin. Plus they used their own party, Puea Phandin, with select MPs of local influence and vote buying, to try to influence the result. Problem is, they were soundly beaten by PPP for the most part, despite spending 3 times the cash. At the moment, the elite that hate Thaksin would love it if these local cliques had more influence, because if they have total control, it's much easier to buy them and have them form a coalition with the Democrats. That was the plan in 07, it didn't work, but obviously they eventually got Newin to switch sides. That's why Abhisit's cabinet had more provincial 'influence' that even PT's does now.

Perhaps you should discuss this point with your wife; I will guess she is from the same roots as my family (poor illiterate rice farmers). Our difference is I believe that politicians are elected to serve us, not to 'give us stuff'.

Each person in a democracy is allowed to keep voting in the same morons and no doubt they will given the sorry state of Thai politics at the moment.

I don't personally place any real faith in a Chinese monopolist walking around in a Fendi robe with poor people as proof he knows how to connect to the poor, or worse still, her sister who has zero credentials to run a country who is backed up by the icecream gang and a guy who flaunted the law hiding his son to escape a murder charge - in fact its hard to think of people more suited to the title 'amartaya' than this lot.

It's funny you say this because Chris Baker actually said in a lecture a couple of years ago that whilst Thaksin presented the 30 baht healthcare as a 'right' for all citizens, the Democrats presented their policies as 'gifts'. Baker suggested that the Democrats didn't understand the new way of politics in which citizens expected to be spoken to as equals. The Democrats still presented themselves in a way that was suggestive of the old bureacratic way of running the state, where poor people came into the provincial government offices, wai'ing, bending and scraping at the knee, thanking the bureaucrat humbly for disdainfully tossing him a bone. I wasn't sure about this because I know that Thaksin did like to present policies as a gift directly from him. But even the ECT comissioner suggested the other day that people are beginning to understand these things are not gifts provided by individual politicians, but policies carried out by the government using taxpayers money.

I agree obviously that Thaksin isn't the best choice. The problem is the more they're insulted and the more people threaten to take their right to vote away, the closer they draw to him. All this stuff that Suthep and the scornful comments that go with it is just playing right into his hands.

Also, again, amartaya has a specific meaning. lol. They're all elites, in the end, but there are different types of elite. Real reformers will stand against both the business elite AND the aristocracy, because they're both complicit in holding genuine progress and reform back.

I agree with quite alot of what you say here, but the ability of voters to choose which politicians represent them on a provincial and national level is over-stated. No matter who runs the government they are mostly from a small group of families.

Thus conflict us not about democracy, it looks to me to be a power struggle between the provincial elite of the north and north east against the elite in bangkok with their southern allies.

[Pompey50]

Having FAILED to remove the govt by any of his moving feasts of final, absolute deadlines, he is now ThREATENING those who do wish to participate in the democratic process. What a sad and sorry excuse for someone meant to be serving the interests of the people ( corruption, insurrection and murder charges notwithstanding).

Yesterday's rally was a major flop for Suthep . It achieved nothing, so now he reverts to the previous policy of intimidation and implied violence. I wouldn't trust this guy for a second

So you think Yingluck has more credibility ...

How many promises has she completed?

Additionally, I am not a big beliver on the elections here in Thailand, it's widely known how the red buying votes...

But even the poor rice farmers also been cheated of the promised money, so the dissatisfaction is increasing even among them.

Yes the red's buy votes. As do the yellows and every other Thai politician or party. Graft and corruption are a way of life in Thailand. How you get rid of it I don't know. It is prevalent throughout Asian culture and simply hidden in the west.

[Maha Sarakham Marty]

Bangkok Post said the security officials have estimated 270,000, and we all know being in the control of the government that the quote will be definitely played down.

So was it the big million + ??

Possibly.

Bluesky was reporting 3.5 million. police reported 135,000. so somewhere int he middle is probably correct. I would say about a million or more!

About 135,000 is more likely. See stadium pic with a capacity of 102,329:

Stadium.jpg

]

Shame in your effort to cut already conservative estimates of 270,000 in half with your own estimate, pulled from god knows where, that you decided to use the red shirted Ohio State american football fans instead of the few hundred thai red shirted Thaksin fans at their last rally.

But, anyway, Go Buckeyes!

[tartempion]

So imagine some US crank trying to get rid of billionaire's voting power such as the Bush family by boycotting next elections.

Bush/Taksin not same same???

[JRSoul]

So imagine some US crank trying to get rid of billionaire's voting power such as the Bush family by boycotting next elections.

Bush/Taksin not same same???

Same same but different.

[thailiketoo]

So imagine some US crank trying to get rid of billionaire's voting power such as the Bush family by boycotting next elections.

Bush/Taksin not same same???

Or the Daley's or the Kennedy's or the Clinton's.

[HerIndoors]

Out of interest, which province?

Almost all Isaan provinces have continued to elect the same scumbags, year in year out for 20+ years, since they got the right to vote post 1992. The party name changes, the promises change, but the family name of who they vote for does not. To actually choose a candidate would require confidence that your vote was cast and could not be seen by someone else (unlikely in rural Thailand), a solid understanding of what you are voting for (or against) - impossible in today's environment, an actual valid choice - difficult when all parties are basically offering much the same thing (popularism) so you go with the one you like the most and the one you know, even if that's the bloke/woman who has skimmed most of the money that should have gone to schools, roads, infrastructure and rooks you on money loans, lottery, retail and rice milling in the area.

The only difference, is now they vote for part of a whole, (PT) rather than an isolated godfather/clan. You will note the language: Thaksin "gave" them 30b healthcare; an airport; OTOP; village funds etc; there is a fundamental struggle to understand (and I know this from doing research for a political party) in both rural and urban Thailand, when a government gives something, who is actually paying for it and what it is actually costing.

If ANYONE should be accused of being an amartaya, it should be the very clans that each province/zone the Isaan people keep choosing, year in year out, to elect. Those godfather clans are for the most part, the ones directly responsible for ensuring that the people in their area are kept in their place, far more than this idiotic claim that it is some faceless powerful people in Bangkok. When the garlic farmers were screwed with the China FTA, when all of Thai rice farmers will eventually suffer massively when the country runs out of money to keep paying them to produce rotting landfill, when the chicken flu crisis kicked in wiping out the industry.....who suffered and who won? Oh most certainly the farmers suffered. But who didn't? The large associated companies with a direct connection to the government. Whose relationships work on both sides of the house. And the various godfathers, who make their money on the government infrastructure projects which should really be a benefit to all Thais, not just them.

As for buying his way to victory, it is clear that Thaksin bought his way to victory multiple times, he didn't need to focus on paying for the end vote. He instead bought the right candidates, using transfer fees. They delivered victories where he needed them. That's all a matter of public record and not really up for debate. He's doing it again for the next election.

You can read about exactly how Thaksin won in 2001 on a platform of "Think new do new", but in fact the politicians representing Isaan it is hard to imagine a more innappropriate name; relative to Bangkok TRT clearly placed their faith in just buying candidates either from other parties or from local politics - this one in English - you can check out some of the work of Duncan McCargo, the bits that aren't banned here as well as Baker et al:

http://robinlea.com/pub/JCA-Thailand-the_good_coup/05-The_thai_rak_thai_party_and_elections_in_north-eastern_thailand.html

Looking at 2005, it is clear that TRT increased its vote mostly by buying up politicians from other parties; i.e. the MOST prostitute like candidates were how they increased their share of the total vote to get the landslide victory (from the same source):

"One way to locate the sources of TRTs success in the 2005 election is to look at its new MPs. If we take a close look at the new TRT MPs for Isan we find that the majority of them were former MPs from other political parties. 41 of them came from those political parties that merged with TRT after the 2001 general election: NAP (16), CPP (14) and Seri Tham party (11). Five defected from CTP and one from the Democrats. Only 8 were newcomers and all of these were local politicians or relatives of MPs. The number of the TRT MPs increased mainly because it sucked MPs from other parties. Since both these new MPs and the re-elected TRT MPs were all old-style politicians, their success surely would have been based, in part, on money power and the political patronage they had nurtured for years."

How many times do we see the red shirts speaking out against this rampant raping and pillaging which is ongoing in EVERY Isaan province on a daily basis by their representatives? not many. if any.

Fat chance, those instigators of the corruption are the very people the red shirts are choosing at the polls!

Perhaps you should discuss this point with your wife; I will guess she is from the same roots as my family (poor illiterate rice farmers). Our difference is I believe that politicians are elected to serve us, not to 'give us stuff'.

Each person in a democracy is allowed to keep voting in the same morons and no doubt they will given the sorry state of Thai politics at the moment.

I don't personally place any real faith in a Chinese monopolist walking around in a Fendi robe with poor people as proof he knows how to connect to the poor, or worse still, her sister who has zero credentials to run a country who is backed up by the icecream gang and a guy who flaunted the law hiding his son to escape a murder charge - in fact its hard to think of people more suited to the title 'amartaya' than this lot.

Chaiyaphum. In my post I said how Thais tend to follow a feudal based loyalty and I think this is what you are getting at and I agree totally. That is the problem. They don't vote for who they think will do a good job, rather they tend to follow an almost 'tribal' allegiance to someone. No point in us westerners looking at Thailand through 'western democratic eyes'... I'm not convinced that it is a system that will work here given the patronage system existing in Thai culture. Having said that.... they all have their noses in various troughs. All sides of politics have a history of abusing a system to their own advantage where checks and balances are weak and the judicial system up to the highest bidder. What a lot of posters here do, is focus on who is the more corrupt.

[Trembly]

My missus is red to the core as are most Issan folk. Not because they are stupid, ill educated and unthinking morons ...no...because they despise everything that the Bangkok wealthy and Amart stand for. I think it was in the late 50's that the Issan dialect was banned from schools... so English is actually their 3rd language.

So to all you posters who say that Thaksin just 'bought' the votes .. you are being stupid beyond belief.

Out of interest, which province?

Almost all Isaan provinces have continued to elect the same scumbags, year in year out for 20+ years, since they got the right to vote post 1992. The party name changes, the promises change, but the family name of who they vote for does not. To actually choose a candidate would require confidence that your vote was cast and could not be seen by someone else (unlikely in rural Thailand), a solid understanding of what you are voting for (or against) - impossible in today's environment, an actual valid choice - difficult when all parties are basically offering much the same thing (popularism) so you go with the one you like the most and the one you know, even if that's the bloke/woman who has skimmed most of the money that should have gone to schools, roads, infrastructure and rooks you on money loans, lottery, retail and rice milling in the area.

The only difference, is now they vote for part of a whole, (PT) rather than an isolated godfather/clan. You will note the language: Thaksin "gave" them 30b healthcare; an airport; OTOP; village funds etc; there is a fundamental struggle to understand (and I know this from doing research for a political party) in both rural and urban Thailand, when a government gives something, who is actually paying for it and what it is actually costing.

If ANYONE should be accused of being an amartaya, it should be the very clans that each province/zone the Isaan people keep choosing, year in year out, to elect. Those godfather clans are for the most part, the ones directly responsible for ensuring that the people in their area are kept in their place, far more than this idiotic claim that it is some faceless powerful people in Bangkok. When the garlic farmers were screwed with the China FTA, when all of Thai rice farmers will eventually suffer massively when the country runs out of money to keep paying them to produce rotting landfill, when the chicken flu crisis kicked in wiping out the industry.....who suffered and who won? Oh most certainly the farmers suffered. But who didn't? The large associated companies with a direct connection to the government. Whose relationships work on both sides of the house. And the various godfathers, who make their money on the government infrastructure projects which should really be a benefit to all Thais, not just them.

As for buying his way to victory, it is clear that Thaksin bought his way to victory multiple times, he didn't need to focus on paying for the end vote. He instead bought the right candidates, using transfer fees. They delivered victories where he needed them. That's all a matter of public record and not really up for debate. He's doing it again for the next election.

You can read about exactly how Thaksin won in 2001 on a platform of "Think new do new", but in fact the politicians representing Isaan it is hard to imagine a more innappropriate name; relative to Bangkok TRT clearly placed their faith in just buying candidates either from other parties or from local politics - this one in English - you can check out some of the work of Duncan McCargo, the bits that aren't banned here as well as Baker et al:

http://robinlea.com/pub/JCA-Thailand-the_good_coup/05-The_thai_rak_thai_party_and_elections_in_north-eastern_thailand.html

Looking at 2005, it is clear that TRT increased its vote mostly by buying up politicians from other parties; i.e. the MOST prostitute like candidates were how they increased their share of the total vote to get the landslide victory (from the same source):

"One way to locate the sources of TRTs success in the 2005 election is to look at its new MPs. If we take a close look at the new TRT MPs for Isan we find that the majority of them were former MPs from other political parties. 41 of them came from those political parties that merged with TRT after the 2001 general election: NAP (16), CPP (14) and Seri Tham party (11). Five defected from CTP and one from the Democrats. Only 8 were newcomers and all of these were local politicians or relatives of MPs. The number of the TRT MPs increased mainly because it sucked MPs from other parties. Since both these new MPs and the re-elected TRT MPs were all old-style politicians, their success surely would have been based, in part, on money power and the political patronage they had nurtured for years."

How many times do we see the red shirts speaking out against this rampant raping and pillaging which is ongoing in EVERY Isaan province on a daily basis by their representatives? not many. if any.

Fat chance, those instigators of the corruption are the very people the red shirts are choosing at the polls!

Perhaps you should discuss this point with your wife; I will guess she is from the same roots as my family (poor illiterate rice farmers). Our difference is I believe that politicians are elected to serve us, not to 'give us stuff'.

Each person in a democracy is allowed to keep voting in the same morons and no doubt they will given the sorry state of Thai politics at the moment.

I don't personally place any real faith in a Chinese monopolist walking around in a Fendi robe with poor people as proof he knows how to connect to the poor, or worse still, her sister who has zero credentials to run a country who is backed up by the icecream gang and a guy who flaunted the law hiding his son to escape a murder charge - in fact its hard to think of people more suited to the title 'amartaya' than this lot.

Excellent post.

[diceq]

Read in The Nation today that 3 fascist supporters were killed in a car crash.