More Problems With Safety And Security In Thailand

[Yohan]

Internationally seen, Thailand can do very little about oil supplies.....

There are 2 ways however, if demand is higher than supply:

1 - increase production

2 - do not waste such energy, use it carefully.

USA should take much stronger measures, to use such energy resources carefully and not to waste them, as it is now the case..... just this step would help a lot to ease such problems of our future.

However this is not a subject for a discussion, which is mainly relevant to Thailand..

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Generally I think, Thailand is in a good situation concerning stability:

1- Population over 60 million people, over 90 percent homogeneous Thai...with their own language, own way of education..... such groups have a national feeling and are sticking together - no danger of any civil war seen so far.

2- Orientated to the Capitalist system, not interested in any Communist-like movements - even poor people like the idea to make their own business and do not like to be regulated by the government - international business is also running smoothly, Baht currency also very stable over many years.

3- No problem about any aggessive religious movement, like fundamentalist Islam

4- A fairly strong Army and Police force, which is quite active and in control of the whole country

5- Financially rather good-off compared to most neighbouring countries - you cannot compare Thailand with Laos or Burma -

I think, Bangkok will be able to hold its important position as the jump-off point to all neighbouring countries, and will continue to be the international gateway for this region in the future.

I am very confident about that.

Johann

[meadish_sweetball]

Yohan,

While I generally agree with your analysis, I think two of your points may take a little revising or reflection:

Baht currency also very stable over many years.

Of course, this depends on exactly how you define "many years". I suppose if you mean since 1997, than your point is valid.

No problem about any aggessive religious movement, like fundamentalist Islam

No, not yet, but there is a strong potential for Southern Thais (who are essentially not ethnic Thais, and muslims) to join the fundamentalist networks if mainstream Thai culture keeps treating them like pariah and expect them to bow to values that go against their religion. It scares me how little Thais in general know or care about the South, the history of their own country and how terrorism is created, and it also reminds me of another group of people from a larger country who should know better...

[Yohan]

Thanks for writing back about this interesting topic.

About the Thai Baht: What I wanted to say, is not about the exchange rate of the Thai Baht. Exchange rates are based on commercial and political speculations and here in Japan we had a period of yen 367,- for 1 US Dollar, and now it is yen 108,- for 1 USD, we had a period where the EURO was weaker than the USD, now the EURO is over 20 percent higher in value than the USD. Same with other major currencies: Australian Dollars, English Pounds and so on.

Conversion rates do not decide if a currency is stable or not stable....

The Thai Baht, bound to the USD was overvaluated with 1 USD = 25 baht (in return of high interest rates), and the present exchange rate of Baht 40,- to 1 USD, not fixed to the USD, seems to be reasonable, stable and realistic.

I see the Thai Baht situation from a long-term period:

When I arrived in Thailand the first time 1972, the currency was the Thai baht and you could buy and pay everything by using the Thai baht in 1972. Most simple people did even not know about the value of any foreign currency.

I paid 1972 for the hotel-room Baht 130,-, now the same room in the same hotel (still existing) is Baht 350,- / I paid Baht 3,- for the bus-ticket in 1972, now the same route is Baht 11,-.....

This shows moderate inflation, but no serious devaluation of the Thai Baht during this long period of 32 years.

Thailand was never like China, where you need some foreign currency exchange coupons to pay your hotel, or countries like Burma or Laos, where it is better to pay all and everything straight in USD. Have you ever received a parcel of Laos kip money in return of some USD?

Contrary I never met anybody in Thailand up to now, who refused to accept Thai Baht as payment. - It seems, Thai people have confidence in the Thai currency.

My own deposit of Thai Baht is in the Citibank, here in Tokyo, and another deposit is in my name in Thailand in the Siam Commercial Bank. Transfer is possible in Thai Baht in both directions. This is not possible with most currencies in Asia.

I know, Thailand is a country with a GNP per person of about only USD 2000,- and it cannot compared to Japan with a GNP per person of over USD 32.000,- and the Baht is not the USD or the YEN. - However due to successful trade and tourism, foreign currency is coming into Thailand and helps the Thai Baht to keep a fairly good position in that region.

About South Thailand:

My first Asian country was Malaysia and my first trip to Thailand was from Malaysia 1972.

Check my homepage at http://www2.gol.com/users/johann

You will find many pictures of that region and I am visiting the Muslim South every year. Believe me, all these Thai Muslim you will see on my homepage do not want to have anything to do with all these separatist or fundamentalist movements.

Compared to 1972 - where was a curfew in SouthThailand during night-time and a very dangerous situation - now all is very peaceful. My vacation place near Thepa south of Songkhla has 80 percent Muslim population.

For me these few extremists in the Thailand South are outsiders, and I feel they do not have any support from the local Muslims, and also not from Malaysian Muslims of the other side of the border. It is also well known, that many of these resistance fighters in South Thailand (Muslim, Communist groups and so on) agreed to give up fighting against Government related organisations during the last years.

Remaining SMALL militant groups, you find also outside of Thailand, and always in history, there was a war there, a correction of a border-line and minorities as a leftover. Also Thailand border was changed after the WWII, and some parts of that area was former Malaysia.

Violence and bombings of Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland and Basks in Spain are good examples for that.

Nobody there however will questioning the future existence of Spain or Great Britain in Europe.

Same about Muslims in the South, these small violent groups are too weak to force any change in Thailand or to cause instability of the Thai Government.

Johann