Thai Baht Loses Value

[Jai Dee]

Thai baht loses value, stands at 38.14 baht to the dollar

The management of BankThai company stated that the Thai baht opened at 38.24/26 value against the dollar, signaling weakening strength from its recent value of 37.85/88 baht.

The Thai baht decreased in value today, following the Japanese yen's drop to 111 yen to the dollar, causing the baht to open at 38.27 to the dollar today. A slight surge in the yen's strength at 110.60 has resulted in the Thai baht settling in at 38.24. The Euro also decreased in value, due to a recent announcement by the French Minister of Commerce stating that France will work to stabilize the Euro at its current value.

It is expected that the Thai baht will move in a narrow margin around 38-38.30 baht to the dollar. Currently, the Thai baht is valued at 38.14/16 baht to the dollar, the Japanese yen is at 110.60/70, and the European Euro is at 1.2760.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 May 2006

[dave111223]

I got scared and decided to transfer half my US $$ to thailand right as the THB hit 37.6

It if goes back up to 40 i'm gonna cry :'(

[CSX]

Becareful making decisions when one gets scared. I step back and look hard and long. It goes up and down. I am just waiting! The dollar should come back and hopefully it does, because I am waiting for the 40 baht to a dollar days again.

[britmaveric]

I got scared and decided to transfer half my US $$ to thailand right as the THB hit 37.6

It if goes back up to 40 i'm gonna cry :'(

I think you will be crying mate - expect 40+ in the coming weeks.

[kc_phil]

Maybe this is totally out of left field...

and maybe i got no business commenting because i don't live there (yet.)

But i am wondering if there is a continuum between percieved political instability and the value of the baht.

I ask myself, in the face of politcal turmoil, does Thailand become more attractive if that drives the baht up to 50+?

I dunno the answer....

[britmaveric]

Well unless a looming financial crisis ala 1998 is in the making I'd say in the low 40's is a safe wager.

[susah_sih]

1. The USD is at all time low now.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/usdindex/us_dollar_index.asp

2. The Fed is going to continue pushing up the rate perhaps to 6% and even higher, due to higher CPI in the US and this will reverse the losses on USD. Bear may come for the equity market.

3. If oil declines, the USD is going to be stronger.

Supports is already building now USD/SGD 1.57, USD/THB38 and USD/EUR 1.28

While for USD/JPY, support is not seen yet, so JPY will strengthen further against the USD; yet, Bank of Japan, the biggest currency manipulator for the USD, may intervene.

Edited May 18, 2006 by susah_sih

[ding]

And what if China merely stops buying US instruments? The dollar will drop independantly of the everything, even the JPY wont it?

Edited May 19, 2006 by ding

[LivinLOS]

If China even hinted that it would stop loaning the US the money to keep its deficits rolling the dollar would TANK..

Very risky strategy for China and I cannot see them doing it but in an economic war so so easy for them right now..

When America keeps talking sanctions and telling china it has to let its currency float (the gall of telling another country what to do with its currency.. Could you imagine if China or Russia starting telling the US what to do with its currency values ??) I always think that they sould be very careful what they wish for..

[susah_sih]

Not necessarily. In financial world, there is a price for everything.

Everyone now shuns US papers, but if the interest rate difference is attractive enough, I am sure there will be buyers. Hey, even Indonesian papers (B credit rating) sell like crazy at 12% coupon. US papers would be attractive even at 7% coupon, afterall the US is still AAA credit rating.

It is just a matter of paying more interests for new papers and the ones that are coming due.

When the US interest rate is high enough, money will flow out of Euro, Yen, and Asian currencies into USD and the value of USD will rebound.

Edited May 19, 2006 by susah_sih

[ding]

I just wonder at the AAA rating, with the US debt, deficit, and the Iranian bourse going EU, etc. ad infinitum.

Will a wind blow that will make the USD ugly no matter the rate margin, and topple the card house?

Edited May 19, 2006 by ding

[susah_sih]

The strengthening of Euro, Yen against USD will limit the need for these countries to raise interest rate (and therefore avoid killing their economies). The inflation is creeping up mainly due to climbing up of energy prices. And energy is still traded in USD terms. Hence with the strengthening of Euro, Yen against USD, inflation in Eurozone and Japan are partly curbed. The US is experiencing high inflation since it is the land of USD and also it relies on import from China mostly. China, having pegged its RMB to USD, effectively experience an inflation due to rising energy cost and therefore China is exporting inflation to the US.

Iran's attempt to trade oil in Euro terms will kill everyone in the world. As Euro is a strong currency and OPEC also wants to get lots of money for its oil, so it will be double whammy (high oil price + strong currency). Iran effort will not be supported by the world.

Edited May 19, 2006 by susah_sih

[Heng]

Back to 40 baby!

[Pattayatony]

Back to 40 baby!

Yeh come on back to 40 then I want to see 50B to the Dollar by the end of this year, as I think the Thai economy is in for tough times. I can feel it in my water.

[LindsayBKK]

Back to 40 baby!

Yeh come on back to 40 then I want to see 50B to the Dollar by the end of this year, as I think the Thai economy is in for tough times. I can feel it in my water.

I think the US$ will be the one in trouble as long as George Bush is at the wheel. US Debt is not getting any better and if they get trouble with Iran the dollar will take a dive. Thai economy is strong. The US$ will only get weaker. I'm glad I have Aussie$. Oh nice of George Bush to spend more money at the Mexican border, keep spending Georgey boy. Venezuela will be the one to watch George Bush.

[bendix]

Iran. George Bush. Commodity prices. Interest rates. Venezuela. Budget deficits.

Whilst I admire the collected wisdom on here about currency markets, I can't help wondering why there are no currency-driven millionaire investors amongst us.

Could it be that - irrespective of all the logic that is spoken here - most markets are fundamentally illogical?

[Pattayatony]

The thing I fail to understand is during this Govt crises in Thailand where the election was null & void and we have a caretaker govt in power the Baht got stronger where as I and I think many others thought it would get weaker, so was it being bought up by the central bank or is the Thai economy really that strong.

Like I said before the Thai economy is heading for trouble. The Thai people are living way beyond their means new cars, houses etc etc all on the never never right up to the little guy buying a motor bike on 1,000B deposit. I hear plenty of repo motor bikes up in Issan.

Im no genious and all of this is only my opinion based on lifes experence and a gutt feeling.

For me its a wait and see situation and Im not changing any money unless necessary.

Cheers Tony

Edited May 19, 2006 by Pattayatony

[pnustedt]

Whilst I admire the collected wisdom on here about currency markets, I can't help wondering why there are no currency-driven millionaire investors amongst us.

How do you know there aren't?

[susah_sih]

USD rebounds!!!

[Upcountry]

http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/THB/USD/G/30

Accept at least session cookies to see the chart.

You an also view 80 and 180 charts

.

[bquick]

Thai baht loses value, stands at 38.14 baht to the dollar

The management of BankThai company stated that the Thai baht opened at 38.24/26 value against the dollar, signaling weakening strength from its recent value of 37.85/88 baht.

The Thai baht decreased in value today, following the Japanese yen's drop to 111 yen to the dollar, causing the baht to open at 38.27 to the dollar today. A slight surge in the yen's strength at 110.60 has resulted in the Thai baht settling in at 38.24. The Euro also decreased in value, due to a recent announcement by the French Minister of Commerce stating that France will work to stabilize the Euro at its current value.

It is expected that the Thai baht will move in a narrow margin around 38-38.30 baht to the dollar. Currently, the Thai baht is valued at 38.14/16 baht to the dollar, the Japanese yen is at 110.60/70, and the European Euro is at 1.2760.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 May 2006

Frogs. always wrapped up in their own selfish arrogant heads.

[Dakhar]

The Thai people are living way beyond their means new cars,

Nope, I'd say the Americans got them beat.

But that is just a guess.

[Heng]

The thing I fail to understand is during this Govt crises in Thailand where the election was null & void and we have a caretaker govt in power the Baht got stronger where as I and I think many others thought it would get weaker, so was it being bought up by the central bank or is the Thai economy really that strong.

Like I said before the Thai economy is heading for trouble. The Thai people are living way beyond their means new cars, houses etc etc all on the never never right up to the little guy buying a motor bike on 1,000B deposit. I hear plenty of repo motor bikes up in Issan.

Im no genious and all of this is only my opinion based on lifes experence and a gutt feeling.

For me its a wait and see situation and Im not changing any money unless necessary.

Cheers Tony

I'd say that a good number of foreigners (not all of course) are more likely to be in contact with the segments of Thai society living beyond their means -agreed though, there are plenty of folks living beyond their means- and merely projecting the habits of those segments to the entire society.

It'd be just as incorrect for me to assume that all Thais have high savings rates, have their family homes/cars/investment property paid off within a few years if not purchased for cash outright, are repatriating 20-30% of their company/business revenue earned in USD, Yen, Yuan, etc. just because it's the norm with Thais I know.

[LivinLOS]

Iran. George Bush. Commodity prices. Interest rates. Venezuela. Budget deficits.

Whilst I admire the collected wisdom on here about currency markets, I can't help wondering why there are no currency-driven millionaire investors amongst us.

Could it be that - irrespective of all the logic that is spoken here - most markets are fundamentally illogical?

You rang ??

Made well over 7 figure USD in the last 18 months (probably 750k YTD).. Not purely in currency trades though more following all of the basic trend ideas above (deficits, loss of confidence in fiat, building desire for hard assets, higher commodity and energy prices) theres many ways to bet on the same ideas.

Nothing illogical at all about gold rising.. Been banging this drum for multiple years.. House prices falls are now coming through (exactly as I have been calling) with new starts up, increased inventory, falling prices the works, looks like rampant inflation and higher interest rate climate (leading to a real housing problem) should put recession squarely in the headlights.

[Firefan]

$750.000! Congrats! (but that is still only 6 figures...) Cheers!

[Nam Kao]

We should expect the dollar to move higher in the coming week as we see metals and oil fall further

[lannarebirth]

I just wonder at the AAA rating, with the US debt, deficit, and the Iranian bourse going EU, etc. ad infinitum.

Will a wind blow that will make the USD ugly no matter the rate margin, and topple the card house?

The Iranian Oil Bourse is a red herring. Totally meaningless with respect to currency exchange.

[lannarebirth]

We should expect the dollar to move higher in the coming week as we see metals and oil fall further

I agree, though it could bounce around awhile first, or even make a new low. The $USD is in the window for the 80 wk low. as it's also a 40 wk cycle low, and the last 3 samples of that cycle ran 35,45,and 35 wks to average 38.3 wks. we're currently 37 wks from the last nominal 40 wk low in the wk of 8/29/05. Metals will probably fall further than many expect in next few months. Oil, who knows?

[lannarebirth]

We should expect the dollar to move higher in the coming week as we see metals and oil fall further

I agree, though it could bounce around awhile first, or even make a new low. The $USD is in the window for the 80 wk low. as it's also a 40 wk cycle low, and the last 3 samples of that cycle ran 35,45,and 35 wks to average 38.3 wks. we're currently 37 wks from the last nominal 40 wk low in the wk of 8/29/05. Metals will probably fall further than many expect in next few months. Oil, who knows?

This is pure speculation of course, but I do track these cycles and will placing some forex trades accordingly. What any of thos means for the Baht I'll not speculate. Since being named a currency (small %) in the Yuans Index basket it's getting a little tougher to track IMO.

[LivinLOS]

$750.000! Congrats! (but that is still only 6 figures...) Cheers!

7 figs in 18 months 750k Year to dat e (sub 6 months)..

Helps to read..