Bangkok Protests - What's Their Strategy for Victory?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Forgive me if this has been addressed in another thread, but I haven't seen it.

Now with the BKK protests heading toward the end of their first full week, I'm trying to discern what the protest's strategy for achieving victory might be, and I'm having a hard time figuring out a sensible answer to that.

I'm not looking to debate the pros or cons of the protest movement itself, or of its leaders.

But rather, whether you agree with them or not, what do you think they see as their own strategy is for achieving victory (and the end of the current YL/PT government)?

Originally, I thought their strategy likely would be a replay of the 2010 Red riots, where the government's long-delayed final action to dislodge the Reds led to street combat, injuries, deaths, and ultimately the fall of the Abhisit government.

But this time around, perhaps wanting to avoid what brought down their predecessors, YL and Co. have for the most part very much avoided any kind of direct confrontation except for a few instances -- the Japan stadium incidents, and some of the early skirmishes around key government buildings.

So in the absence of blood on the streets, how are the protesters' current actions going to possibly get YL and Co out?

Right now, it kind of feels/seems like a stalemate. The Army seems to be sitting on the sidelines and staying there. Perhaps the government thinks they can just wait out the protesters and hope their numbers, enthusiasm and momentum will dwindle with time. But how would Suthep see this playing out in the days ahead?

Edited January 16, 2014 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[isawasnake]

If I turned on the news and saw a bunch of Thai people dancing and singing in the street, I would be happy with a "stalemate" if I were Yingluck.

Forgive me for lowering myself, but I don't think they put too much thought into anything. I mean, let's think about this. What if the protests would have been a huge "success" (they don't seem to be), and the entire city came to a standstill. Would that make people just love Suthep? Lol. I think it would do the opposite.

Next week we'll be onto a new gimmick with the empty, attached ultimatums. There wont be much thought behind the new one either, there will be no goals, no discourse, only gimmicks and ultimatums. People are giving this guy money in the streets, so to address your thread title, I think he is achieving "victory" daily. No matter what anybody tells you in life, the only person that anybody cares about is themselves, and perhaps close family friends.

Edited January 16, 2014 by isawasnake

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

If Suthep loses this fight, he could well be headed to prison -- although this being Thailand, that's always an iffy proposition.

But still, if I were him, I'd be seriously thinking about how to end up as a winner in this fight, and not the loser. And I doubt collecting money on the street is going to end up being the key to a potential win -- although it certainly doesn't hurt.

[The Dancer]

I just passed by Victory Monument on my back. I would say a couple of hundred people at best. Most of the southerners bussed in are heading home, shopping bags full of goodies. The hi-so kids were done even earlier. Jeez, spending all this time in the sun could darken their skin like those horrible uneducated Issan buffaloes. And Suthep's made a bundle in the process. I would call it a win-win.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Suthep certainly has his faults. But if you seriously think he doesn't REALLY want to get rid of Thaksin and Co. and instead is just engaging in a money-making scheme, I think you need to take a longer look at Thai politics.

Perhaps he thinks he can make MORE money if all the Thaksin lackies are gone and he and/or his allies are back in power. But I don't doubt for a second his seriousness about wanting to rid them from Thai government and politics.

[The Dancer]

Suthep certainly has his faults. But if you seriously think he doesn't REALLY want to get rid of Thaksin and Co. and instead is just engaging in a money-making scheme, I think you need to take a longer look at Thai politics.

Perhaps he thinks he can make MORE money if all the Thaksin lackies are gone and he and/or his allies are back in power. But I don't doubt for a second his seriousness about wanting to rid them from Thai government and politics.

Oh, I am sure Suthep's serious but if you think that's owing to patriotism then there's this island I own off Phuket ... And neither is he in it to make money though I wouldn't put it past him to filch a few baht from the PDRC pot.

My take on this guy (and the other Democrats) is that it's really personal between them and Thaksin. To say they hate the guy is like saying the Pope is Catholic. There's more to it. These old guys had been in politics for decades when this brash billionaire blows in and blows them away. Unforgivable loss of face that.

In any case, the Economist had a rather chilling assessment of Suthep's prospects in a recent article. They said if he wins he will be assassinated, if he loses he will hang.

[celso]

Don't know but I hope it keeps going for a while yet, more frequent BTS and empty shopping malls, its a great time to be in Bangkok!

[Rumblecat]

Like the OP I struggle to see what the strategy is, unless the hope is that the government just cave in and quit, which seems incredibly optimistic on the part of the protests. It's surely easier for a government to wait for protests to thin out and die down, than for protests to wait for a government to give in and resign.

Unless his strategy is to hope for the military to get involved and a coup to occur, which seems the most likely aim- even political commentators seem confused over what his real strategy is, but they all seem to agree the 'shutdown' movement wouldn't be enough to achieve his aims.

[473geo]

Billed as a movement to end corruption, install the PDRC with the King as Head of State, including the eradication of Thaksin and family, should surely have sucked in all but the most faithful of Thaksin supporters.

So what went wrong? His own kind in the shape of the democrats did not fully back him, and throw their support behind the Suthep Shutdown. Immediately the credibility was suspect.The government has gone along with his demands to step down, they were not unreceptive, a snap election, so he pulled nothing more than an assist on that score.

The envisaged 'confrontation' has been so far excellently handled, giving credit to the government, RTP and RTA.

Provocation failed, his rhetoric became more demanding from a weakening position. The narrow camera angles and the close proximity of the guys giving 1000 baht notes looked staged for the cameras, no doubt people offered money, but to what end? If Suthep really requires donations after only a few days he does not carry the backing from the people he needs to succeed.

To further endanger lives for a failed cause by selecting individual targets to disrupt will not swell the meagre ranks of his supporters, he speaks of setting up a peoples group to gain consensus on reform, yet refuses to be involved in discussion.........I see a calm civilised departure being the correct strategy for Suthep, at least he could carry away a slight moral victory

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

To further endanger lives for a failed cause by selecting individual targets to disrupt will not swell the meagre ranks of his supporters,

As I posted in another thread, there were many thousands of people out at the Asoke intersection alone Thursday night, as my photo linked here clearly shows, and no noticeable fall-off from the past couple weekdays.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/685198-information-on-protest-sites/?p=7301101

It's been interesting to me how the various Thai media reports seem to often make no reference to the size of the demonstrations (numbers of demonstrators involved), or in the alternative, use vague figures like "tens of thousands" referring to the entirety of the BKK protests on a particularly day when clearly -- spread across the multiple sites -- there were far more.

I wish someone was taking and posting regular photos of the various other demonstration sites besides Asoke -- the ones of mine I linked to above. I'd really like to get a better sense of what's going on at all the other venues in terms of participation.

But even with the current levels of participation, whatever they are, it doesn't seem to be enough to be able to move the needle for change -- at least, not in the current circumstance.

[Diplomatico]

To further endanger lives for a failed cause by selecting individual targets to disrupt will not swell the meagre ranks of his supporters,

As I posted in another thread, there were many thousands of people out at the Asoke intersection alone Thursday night, as my photo linked here clearly shows, and no noticeable fall-off from the past couple weekdays.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/685198-information-on-protest-sites/?p=7301101

It's been interesting to me how the various Thai media reports seem to often make no reference to the size of the demonstrations (numbers of demonstrators involved), or in the alternative, use vague figures like "tens of thousands" referring to the entirety of the BKK protests on a particularly day when clearly -- spread across the multiple sites -- there were far more.

I wish someone was taking and posting regular photos of the various other demonstration sites besides Asoke -- the ones of mine I linked to above. I'd really like to get a better sense of what's going on at all the other venues in terms of participation.

But even with the current levels of participation, whatever they are, it doesn't seem to be enough to be able to move the needle for change -- at least, not in the current circumstance.

If by "many thousands of people" you mean "two or three thousand people, then yes, that's what your photos show. And yes, that's a HUGE drop-off from the 22 December rally of 160,000 or so across Bangkok.

Edited January 16, 2014 by Diplomatico

[Curt1591]

As for "their strategy for victory", I would assume it has the be a coup. This can be done by inciting enough people into conflicts where the army will step in to "keep the peace".

This would only take down the sitting government. To achieve the final victory, they will have to assume power.

A new "caretaker government" will be assigned and the constitution will be adjusted before next election.

If this occurs, it will be interesting to see how a constitution can be drawn up to exclude specific, designated individuals, without excluding others guilty of the same sins.

Possibly lese majeste clauses may play into it. During the democrat party's last governance, one MP actually suggested that, since they are the government of Thailand, and Thailand is the King, being against the government is being against the King. Therefore, dissension equaled lese majeste!

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

As for "their strategy for victory", I would assume it has the be a coup. This can be done by inciting enough people into conflicts where the army will step in to "keep the peace".

Except, no visible sign that the current protest activities are moving things in that direction.

If I were a Thai national out there on the streets every day, I'd be wondering, "Where is all this going?" and "What am I accomplishing here?"

[Curt1591]

As for "their strategy for victory", I would assume it has the be a coup. This can be done by inciting enough people into conflicts where the army will step in to "keep the peace".

Except, no visible sign that the current protest activities are moving things in that direction.

If I were a Thai national out there on the streets every day, I'd be wondering, "Where is all this going?" and "What am I accomplishing here?"

Many of them are asking just that.

[sam sen]

to have a stratergy you need to think and plan ahead. remember we are in thailand.

[The Dancer]

If you think about it to keep protesting you've got to be really mad at something. Amnesty bill? Yep, it sparked the movement but it's been long off the table. Rice scam? Purely theoretical for people from Bkk and the south. Other scams? Jeez, there's a scam whichever way you look these parts, with Dem heads stuck inside cookie jars as much as the rest. People understand that.

What else? Thaksinism? Give me a break. The economy which is all people care about has been doing just fine under YL past couple of years, say what you will. Numbers don't lie. And not a single poll claiming people's lives are worse now than under Abhisit.

The PDRC thought one of two would happen

(1 ) YL would be unnerved to the point of quitting

(2) Reds would be incited, confrontations would happen and the Army would step in

Nada. Nothing. PTP's played a blinder. Methinks now Suthep's looking for a face-saving way out. Wring some final concession from the PTP, claim victory and head off to one of Chuwit's places to have his wounds tended to.

Edited January 17, 2014 by The Dancer

[HardenedSoul]

Been a couple of shootings, a couple of non-fatal bombs that have made the Army prick up its ears but I think everyone knows these were orchestrated by the military wing of the PDRC to goad the Army into intervention.

[Sceptict11]

Been a couple of shootings, a couple of non-fatal bombs that have made the Army prick up its ears but I think everyone knows these were orchestrated by the military wing of the PDRC to goad the Army into intervention.

You have evidence to support that assertion ?

[HardenedSoul]

No but the Red shirts have nothing to gain by injuring a few protesters since fatalities would only draw in the army and result in an all-bets-are-off situation.

The protesters have everything to gain by injuring a few of their own for the "greater good" if it draws in the arbiters of their success.

[Curt1591]

No but the Red shirts have nothing to gain by injuring a few protesters since fatalities would only draw in the army and result in an all-bets-are-off situation.

The protesters have everything to gain by injuring a few of their own for the "greater good" if it draws in the arbiters of their success.

The bombing, at Chang Wattana, happened to a group that preceded Suthep's passing the spot.

After the bombing, the PDRC would only allow the army to enter the building where the grenades from where said to be tossed. The police weren't allowed in at all.

The army came out with no suspect(s), but enough ordnance to fight a battle, and one red hat !

Even my wife, a staunch opposition supporter, said "Something is wrong here …"

However, she believes it was a set up, by the government, to make people believe that it was a set up by the PDRC.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Curt1591

[sundrenched]

You could look at these protests as preparing the ground for a judicial or military coup. I think it will be the former, as the army has little appetite to get in the middle of this. There must be enough chaos and disruption first for a large section of the population to accept another coup.

[sundrenched]

What's a red hat?!?!

[Curt1591]

The red cap is meant to connect the incident to the red shirts.

A correction:

This is actually referring to the incident downtown, near national stadium.

Additional info:

Apparently, the march route was changed just before they marched. The assailants appear to also be psychic!

Edited January 18, 2014 by Curt1591

[CaptHaddock]

There are two possibilities that would constitute success for the anti-democracy movement of Suthep: civil disorder and violence that leads to an outright military coup by the military under the guise of saving the nation or the appointment of a non-elected government under the threat of a military coup. Statements by generals about their unwillingness to act directly strain credulity. One has only to recall Sondhi's similar disclaimer before he went right ahead and personally led the 2006 coup. It would be naive to take the generals' expressions at face value.

The reason that the PTP government, which was legitimately elected, has prevented the police from responding forcefully to the provocations of the protesters is the threat of a response by the military. Prayuth went so far as to say that he was stationing troops around the city to protect the protesters. He never claimed to be protecting the elected government.

At the same time another there is a judicial movement to deligitimise the PTP party by pressing impeachment charges against more than 300 legislators for the attempt to amend the constitution to enable a fully-elected senate. A success judicial coup to disable the PTP under the implied threat of a military coup could also meet the organizers' goal of transferring political power from the elected government to a hand-picked group from among the powerful elite.

Since tt seems unlikely that that the coup scenario can work without violence I would expect the current festive air of the protest to change.

Edited January 18, 2014 by CaptHaddock

[Rumblecat]

The red cap is meant to connect the incident to the red shirts.

I'm pretty sure on the news they said it was a red police cap, meaning it was meant to be linked with the police rather than the red shirts.

[The Dancer]

There are two possibilities that would constitute success for the anti-democracy movement of Suthep: civil disorder and violence that leads to an outright military coup by the military under the guise of saving the nation or the appointment of a non-elected government under the threat of a military coup. Statements by generals about their unwillingness to act directly strain credulity. One has only to recall Sondhi's similar disclaimer before he went right ahead and personally led the 2006 coup. It would be naive to take the generals' expressions at face value.

The reason that the PTP government, which was legitimately elected, has prevented the police from responding forcefully to the provocations of the protesters is the threat of a response by the military. Prayuth went so far as to say that he was stationing troops around the city to protect the protesters. He never claimed to be protecting the elected government.

At the same time another there is a judicial movement to deligitimise the PTP party by pressing impeachment charges against more than 300 legislators for the attempt to amend the constitution to enable a fully-elected senate. A success judicial coup to disable the PTP under the implied threat of a military coup could also meet the organizers' goal of transferring political power from the elected government to a hand-picked group from among the powerful elite.

Since tt seems unlikely that that the coup scenario can work without violence I would expect the current festive air of the protest to change.

Well said. A military or judicial coup is what Suthep desperately wants. However, I may be wrong but neither seems likely to me.

A military coup instantly gets the army into the kind of quagmire they detest, not to mention that the lower ranks are filled with reds (the tangmos) who would mutiny rather than slaughter their own. The brass have been (cleverly) left alone by the PTP Govt. So, why risk getting their current fairly comfortable situation upended in order to stroke Suthep?

A judicial coup means that the judges who deliver it are dead men. They will be assassinated and their families targeted without doubt. The reds are not going to roll over and play dead while a dozen yellow-shirts in robes try to screw them over.

So, I am going to stick my head out and say the protests go nowhere. The elections may be postponed to give Suthep a face-saving way out but that's about it.

Edited January 18, 2014 by The Dancer

[brewsterbudgen]

It seems pretty obvious that the protest numbers have dwindled to just a few hardcore protestors, who presumably have nowhere else to go. Unfortunately, Suthep will probably have to ratchet things up a little. Yesterday's 'bomb', despite the fatality, didn't have the desired effect. Worrying times.

[whybother]

Well said. A military or judicial coup is what Suthep desperately wants. However, I may be wrong but neither seems likely to me.

A military coup instantly gets the army into the kind of quagmire they detest, not to mention that the lower ranks are filled with reds (the tangmos) who would mutiny rather than slaughter their own. The brass have been (cleverly) left alone by the PTP Govt. So, why risk getting their current fairly comfortable situation upended in order to stroke Suthep?

A judicial coup means that the judges who deliver it are dead men. They will be assassinated and their families targeted without doubt. The reds are not going to roll over and play dead while a dozen yellow-shirts in robes try to screw them over.

So, I am going to stick my head out and say the protests go nowhere. The elections may be postponed to give Suthep a face-saving way out but that's about it.

Postponing the elections won't make any difference to Suthep. He wants Yingluck gone. He won't accept anything less.

[BusyBee123]

Social media has taken off since the 2008 and 2010 protests, yep even the bumpkins have iPads and all are far wiser and richer (land prices going up faster than Bangkok) I feel the days of a preacher on a stage are long gone it's quite clear people are seriously fed up with it and want things done the right way or no way just not the hold us to ransom way

[Curt1591]

The red cap is meant to connect the incident to the red shirts.

I'm pretty sure on the news they said it was a red police cap, meaning it was meant to be linked with the police rather than the red shirts.

In this damning photo, the red cap is a "Walls" visor. I guess it was meant to link it to the ice cream man!

But, they also include some "police" patches for good measure.

Where's the Louis Vitton purse !?!