Thaksin Returns As Pm

[John K]

For him it is a fight or flight situation for post politics survival.

And so it is for the PAD leadership.

Why?

[ColPyat]

For him it is a fight or flight situation for post politics survival.

And so it is for the PAD leadership.

Why?

Because the fronts are so embittered now, on both sides every rule of polite conduct has been broken, that no side can afford to lose now. If Thaksin prevails, then Sondhi, Chamlong & Co will face serious difficulties if they stay in Thailand. Thaksin is known to hold grudges, especially because Sondhi and Chamlong were until not too long ago on his side.

Personally i have strong suspicions that this whole thing, especially when looking at Sondhi And Chamlong's past conduct, is less about "Democracy" (and 'Human Rights') than about personal issues.

Nobody exactly knows why Sondhi broke with Thaksin, both sides keep very quite about this, and Chamlong has only broken with Thaksin when Thaksin refused Chamlong's request to give a third of his profits from the Themasek deal to the people. Chamlong has in a public speach during the demonstrations praised Thaksin as a great PM during his first 4 years (the years when most of his human rights violations were committed, when all of his populist programs were initiated). So, it is fair to assume that those human rights violations were not much of an issue while the issue was only the financial gains of the ShinCorp sale for Chamlong. Interesting to note is that Chamlong is leading part of a fundamentalist Buddhist sect.

[hammered]

For him it is a fight or flight situation for post politics survival.

And so it is for the PAD leadership.

But it is different. It is about what you have to lose. Mr. T is facing potentially losing total control of a country and its economy. This creates the ultimate fight or flight situation. The PAD leadership personally have nothing much to lose (although they may argue Thailand as an entity has a lot to lose), so they are not in the same fight or flight situation.

[jdinasia]

Not even CLOSE to the same situation.

No matter what happens the PAD can survive as a watchdog group (of sorts) and hopefully a conscience for the country!

[ColPyat]

For him it is a fight or flight situation for post politics survival.

And so it is for the PAD leadership.

But it is different. It is about what you have to lose. Mr. T is facing potentially losing total control of a country and its economy. This creates the ultimate fight or flight situation. The PAD leadership personally have nothing much to lose (although they may argue Thailand as an entity has a lot to lose), so they are not in the same fight or flight situation.

Different in some ways, though lots to loose on both sides.

Don't think that Sondhi has not make vast profits from the demonstrations. CD's of his TV shows were on sale, and subscriptions offered to his TV channel. Some way to repair his crumbling and debt ridden media empire.

Chamlong has brought Santi Asoke full into the fight. Don't think that there will not be serious repercussions against this sect that anyhow is rather disputed, in case Thaksin prevails.

On both sides this has long ago moved from the purely political into the personal.

[ColPyat]

Not even CLOSE to the same situation.

No matter what happens the PAD can survive as a watchdog group (of sorts) and hopefully a conscience for the country!

I believe you credit Thaksin with far too much benevolence. If he wins he will hit back hard. That is part of his character.

[John K]

For him it is a fight or flight situation for post politics survival.

And so it is for the PAD leadership.

Why?

Because the fronts are so embittered now, on both sides every rule of polite conduct has been broken, that no side can afford to lose now. If Thaksin prevails, then Sondhi, Chamlong & Co will face serious difficulties if they stay in Thailand. Thaksin is known to hold grudges, especially because Sondhi and Chamlong were until not too long ago on his side.

Personally i have strong suspicions that this whole thing, especially when looking at Sondhi And Chamlong's past conduct, is less about "Democracy" (and 'Human Rights') than about personal issues.

Nobody exactly knows why Sondhi broke with Thaksin, both sides keep very quite about this, and Chamlong has only broken with Thaksin when Thaksin refused Chamlong's request to give a third of his profits from the Themasek deal to the people. Chamlong has in a public speach during the demonstrations praised Thaksin as a great PM during his first 4 years (the years when most of his human rights violations were committed, when all of his populist programs were initiated). So, it is fair to assume that those human rights violations were not much of an issue while the issue was only the financial gains of the ShinCorp sale for Chamlong. Interesting to note is that Chamlong is leading part of a fundamentalist Buddhist sect.

Correct me if I am wrong but the PAD is not a party and the issues they have with Thaksin are from Thaksin being arrogant and stepping on everyone for personal gain. They are within their rights to speak out. Judging by the number of people who voted “no vote” they have a significant following.

Changing a law that was put in place to protect Thailand so he could sell Shin just hours before the transaction. That is the straw that broke the camels back. In some countries that could easily be seen as treason. All it would take is a good lawyer to prove in court the law was changed to support corruption and personal gain before country and you can imagine the consequences for the people involved.

The PAD issues are minor in comparison. If they did anything wrong it effected far less people. Seemingly that is a big if. One of the things I admire about the PAD is warning the people at the rallies not to fall into any traps set by Thaksin. Example don’t touch the fence or gate around government house so as avoid being accused of a crime.

What Thaksin did and is continuing to do for his own personal gain is effecting Thailand and possibly the region.

All legal action pending agents the PAD is being generated by Thaksin to delay, divert, and intimidate. I think you may recall the King had a say on this in December. Apparently Thaksin has forgotten.

Personally for the moment I see the PAD as a group of concerned Thai citizens and nothing more. I don’t see much basis in you claim (at least for now.)

Edited June 11, 2006 by john Krukowski

[ando]

All these problems would be over, if only,--

1. Thaskin would step down;

2.The EC would resign; and

3.The TRT would disband itself voluntarily.

Its all Thaksins fault and things would be a lot nicer if he would just do as we say.

Well folks this is not a movie, its reality dealing with a very tough politician who really doesn't care what a few farangs on some ex-pat board think of him.

Fact is that this saga is grinding through the Thai courts and the outcomes may not please anybody in the end.

The options were--

1. The courts could have down played the alleged illegal practices of the past and pushed ahead with new elections with the proviso that all parties agree to constitutional reform to eliminate corrupt electoral practices; (some of the Thai legal experts here would no doubt say that couldn't happen for various reasons, but it certainly could if a Memorandum of Understanding were drawn up and Royally endorsed.)

or,

2. Go through the process of law adhering to the very letter of it and risk a political gridlock and destabilizing the whole country.

It appears the courts have chosen option 2.

One has to ask the question, if the courts were doing their proper job in the first place how come this even came about? And the standard answer to that is that the courts can only act on complaints. So why wernt there any complaints? Why is it only now if things have been so bad for so long?

Everyone agrees that constitutional reform is needed to prevent political corruption.

Everyone agrees that the country needs to be in a position of effective government to best serve the needs of its citizens.

I am not saying the courts should turn a blind eye to corruption, but I am saying there is more at stake here than the restoration of blind justice which seems to have been missing for so long.

I really think the courts have missed the point in what they have been charged to do. Blind justice and political chaos or to get the country back on its feet and bring about political/constitutional reform so that this can never happen again.

[jdinasia]

The courts are not legally able to overlook violations of the law ... at least they are not supposed to be

[John K]

Question: As Thaksin seems to change laws at a whim for himself, are the problems the courts now face related to the changes?

[Martin]

An interesting thing to me is that the baht is holding up nicely.

If money talks, other countries' monies seem to be saying that the other countries are quite confident that the Thais will sort this out without ruining their economy.

[slimdog]

The laws regarding foreign ownership of the telecom sector were changed by TRT after they gained power. Prior to this, foreign companies were permitted to own up to 49%.

Thaksin did try to revert the law back to the 49% ruling in 2002, but it was turned down by the senate (100 Senators voted against)

When Thaksin presented the last proposal to change the law back to 49% it was supposedly to comply with the WTO.

The last proposal was agreed by the senate (with only 10 Senators ruling against)

Not to say that Shin didn't benefit from the changes..

[ando]

The courts are not legally able to overlook violations of the law ... at least they are not supposed to be

Well there you go. Now that the countries future is in the hands of the courts its blind justice rather than discretion. The courts don't have any discressionary powers now that they are in the limelight. But it appears they must have had plenty of discretion in days gone by when they were not under such public scrutiny.

The future of the country must be irrelevant in their decision making processes. The process of law must be adhered to to the letter now, for that is the role of the courts.

They are all to busy living in their own little worlds, covering their own little backsides than living up to the task placed before them of getting the countries government back functioning again. If things were a mess before, they are surely a much bigger mess now thanks to the courts inability to manage the situation.

The courts by their "letter of the law" mentality have now become pawns in the game between political parties rather than the instrument to bring about political stability and reform. The courts by their very mechanical system of resolution are not in fact coming up with solutions to bring the country together and get government up and functioning again. In fact they been reduced to political tools by the waring political parties to only divide the country further.

I hate to have to say it, but I think the only way the whole political/legal mess can be sorted out now is for the military to step in and bang some heads together in order to get some sense out of the people who are supposed to be taking care of Thailand.

[jdinasia]

lol ... well there you go ...

Obviously the "rule of law" is too much for you to hope for. At this point we are still in Democracy here ... yes due to the undermining of the checks and balances systems things are troubled here. But you call for a military coup?! wow!

[bquick]

Taksin will win. Easy fix voting nowadays and for someone like him no problem do it.

So all this talk is a waste of time. Watch and see. just a facade playing itself out.

[John K]

lol ... well there you go ...

Obviously the "rule of law" is too much for you to hope for. At this point we are still in Democracy here ... yes due to the undermining of the checks and balances systems things are troubled here. But you call for a military coup?! wow!

Well ther is always Chuwit Kamolwisit instead of the military.

[ando]

lol ... well there you go ...

Obviously the "rule of law" is too much for you to hope for. At this point we are still in Democracy here ... yes due to the undermining of the checks and balances systems things are troubled here. But you call for a military coup?! wow!

There is a difference between a Democracy and a Bureaucracy. Look it up.

[thedude]

Because the fronts are so embittered now, on both sides every rule of polite conduct has been broken, that no side can afford to lose now. If Thaksin prevails, then Sondhi, Chamlong & Co will face serious difficulties if they stay in Thailand. Thaksin is known to hold grudges, especially because Sondhi and Chamlong were until not too long ago on his side.

Personally i have strong suspicions that this whole thing, especially when looking at Sondhi And Chamlong's past conduct, is less about "Democracy" (and 'Human Rights') than about personal issues.

Nobody exactly knows why Sondhi broke with Thaksin, both sides keep very quite about this, and Chamlong has only broken with Thaksin when Thaksin refused Chamlong's request to give a third of his profits from the Themasek deal to the people. Chamlong has in a public speach during the demonstrations praised Thaksin as a great PM during his first 4 years (the years when most of his human rights violations were committed, when all of his populist programs were initiated). So, it is fair to assume that those human rights violations were not much of an issue while the issue was only the financial gains of the ShinCorp sale for Chamlong. Interesting to note is that Chamlong is leading part of a fundamentalist Buddhist sect.

exactly right. chamlong is a buddhist fundamentalist thug.

his failed attempt to extort charoen resulted in ThaiBev listing on the singapore stock exchange, thailand loses the biggest SET listing in years. everybody in politics is corrupt in some way, its foolish to focus so much on thaksin. so many people on this board are so cynical that objectivity fails them. the PAD's days are numbered, it doesn't have the support of mainstream political parties, the military, the majority of the electorate, nor the monarchy. its going down.

[ColPyat]

the PAD's days are numbered, it doesn't have the support of mainstream political parties, the military, the majority of the electorate, nor the monarchy. its going down.

And unfortunately part of their downfall has been and will be creating vast and lasting damage to the the society, potentially even more than Thaksin has done. The PAD has gambled and lost already - they should have stopped when they have forced Thaksin to call in new elections. But, because of underlying personal issues and agendas all progress that has been reached has been gambled away, even resulted in the opposite. Their main demands have either been shot to pieces by the palace itself (such as the demands for installation of a Royally appointed PM), or simply not come through (such as the immediate resignation of Thaksin).

At this point it does not really matter anymore if Thaksin stays or not - the polarisation within Thai society will outlast the political life of all players and their personal agendas, and will severely hinder Thailand's economical, social and political development for a considerable time.

[John K]

I think we all agree it will get worse before it gets better. What ever your feelings are about the PAD they for now are working to remove Thaksin. Pro or con the educated people agree with it. The pro Thaksin side has valid points too in that he made changes in the north. However it is still a dance with the devil.

Use your imagination for a moment and plot the changes over the past 5 years. Now imagine where Thailand would be in 2011 with the same rate of change. It would not be hard to imagine that the constitution would be rewritten to support Thaksin. Any remaining laws that could challenge him would be impotent at best. Offices other that the PM would be simply be decorations to imply a democracy.

He is not taking over the country with armor from the outside. He is more like a cancer eating from the inside out a piece at a time. Think of instances in world history that have similar themes. The rise of Hitler is remarkably similar. A country going through a long and painful recovery from world war one. People looking for a person with strong decisive leadership.

Once enough power is achieved then putting down anyone who challenges him will be done swiftly and decisively. Legal attacks are mild and take time. People disappearing is quick. I don’t think anyone would doubt that it is entirely within Thaksin’s nature to do that.

The question is; seeing that his supporters are mostly uneducated, do they know of world history and the path Thaksin has put them on? And even if they did would the have the courage to reject it knowing that short term gains are paid for with long term suffering.

Look at the long term of having Thaksin and not just the next few months and you will see another picture.

[VanZam]

Amazing that this guy can just come and go as he pleases.

One day off golfing in China, having "stepped down" the next back running the country.

Why? becasue he thinks thailand will fall without him... well seems he has a lot of faith in the caretaker PM, from his own party and all!

This is now just a competition of fools, they should all wear clown suits and ride around on miniture dogs to help people spot them more easily.

[VanZam]

Edited June 11, 2006 by VanZam

[Plus]

PAD's days are numbered, it doesn't have the support of mainstream political parties, the military, the majority of the electorate, nor the monarchy. its going down.

Hard to believe that when TRT's life depends solely on three EC members staying put.

Thaksin is as good as gone. If TRT survives bribery charge, it will lose him, Thamarak, and possibly all their executive board.

Where do you see PAD failing? Royally appointed PM? That was just an idea, and if it floats again, it will be VERY popular in light of the present celebrations. Like it or not, but PAD has nearly achieved it's main goal removing Thaksin and Thaksinocracy.

If, however, you are on PAD bashing mission, no amount of reality will register with you.

Chamlong a fundamentalist thug! Just listen to yourself for a moment, will you.

[ColPyat]

Royally appointed PM? That was just an idea, and if it floats again, it will be VERY popular in light of the present celebrations.

Chamlong a fundamentalist thug! Just listen to yourself for a moment, will you.

A Royally appointed PM may be very popular, but it will be in direct confrontation to the H.M. the King's public statements. And it will not exactly be democratic.

The sect Chamlong belongs to -Santi Asok - is in theory and practise what can be called fundamentalist Buddhism. Which is fair enough as long as this is practised in private.

But when such a sect is interfering in political matters, such as in the demonstrations, then this is a matter of concern.

I do hope, no matter who will form the next government, Santi Asoke will be investigated, and stopped from interfering in politics again.

Edited June 11, 2006 by ColPyat

[Plus]

PAD have dropped the idea of Royally appointeed PM in line with HM wishes. Nobody cried, nobody considered a failure, nobody thought it was a big deal. I don't see how they are going to bring it up again, unless situtation changes dramatically for the worse.

Santi Asoke might be a sect with Chamlong as their secular leader, but what are the reasons to call it "fundamentalist" - it's just an offshot, not even officially reconginsed. Where in PAD's policies can you find any trace of their "fundamentalists" ideology? What are the reasons to call Chamlong a thug? He's rather Mahatma Gandhi of Thai politics.

[sriracha john]

Perhaps the subject is drifting a little off topic, -- that is unless you live in Issarn where the majority of Thai voters do.

Just to clarify. This claim is inaccurate as the latest figures indicate that approximately 1/3 of all Thais live in the NE, which is not a majority. 21 million out of a total of 62 million.

Edited June 11, 2006 by sriracha john

[Ricardo]

Amazing that this guy can just come and go as he pleases.

One day off golfing in China, having "stepped down" the next back running the country.

Why? becasue he thinks thailand will fall without him... well seems he has a lot of faith in the caretaker PM, from his own party and all!

Agreed. I've been wondering, for some weeks now, why the media refer to Dr T as 'PM' or 'caretaker-PM' , when 'former PM' would be more accurate ! He was reported to have stepped-down, and gone off on his holidays, regarding himself as now being unemployed.

So how can he just walk back in, start chairing weekly cabinet-meetings, and acting as though he never went on TV to tearfully quit, in the interests of national reconciliation ?

Things will get interesting, hope that they remain peaceful, after the current celebrations.

[sriracha john]

"Should they stubbornly hold on to power after the royal anniversary, we will organize mass rallies to kick them out," said Suriyasai Katasila of the People's Alliance for Democracy, the group leading the street campaign against Thaksin.

Surely this is just a bit of chest beating by PAD.

If they were to resume demonstrations while matters were before the courts it could be seen as little more than an attempt to intimidate the courts into bringing down decisions in line with PADs political ideals.

Now that would really give the generals a sound excuse to step in.

We have the Democrats working on the strategy that if they cant get into power at the ballot box they will do it through the courts and now we have the PAD saying they will protest in the streets while things are before the courts.

They say that only if you read a lot into a one sentence quote.

Sorry to disappoint your distorted perceptions of their intentions, but the PAD certainly didn't state their actions would preceed any of the Court's actions resolutions... in fact, they have specifically and categorically stated in the past, they would not.

[jdinasia]

Royally appointed PM? That was just an idea, and if it floats again, it will be VERY popular in light of the present celebrations.

Chamlong a fundamentalist thug! Just listen to yourself for a moment, will you.

A Royally appointed PM may be very popular, but it will be in direct confrontation to the H.M. the King's public statements. And it will not exactly be democratic.

The sect Chamlong belongs to -Santi Asok - is in theory and practise what can be called fundamentalist Buddhism. Which is fair enough as long as this is practised in private.

But when such a sect is interfering in political matters, such as in the demonstrations, then this is a matter of concern.

I do hope, no matter who will form the next government, Santi Asoke will be investigated, and stopped from interfering in politics again.

Pardon me?

The members (and not all of them) of Santhi Asoke are considered fundamentalist by some .. that is true ... HOWEVER ... Chamlong is a member ... not a monk ... not a leader per se .... that just happens to be his religious sect.

((Santi Asoke is completely vegetarian and they ordain women as nuns etc etc etc )) It is why they are considered fundamentalist)) They don't shove their overall beliefs on their neighbors ... in fact right behind Pathom Asoke is a slaughterhouse))

[John K]

PAD have dropped the idea of Royally appointeed PM in line with HM wishes. Nobody cried, nobody considered a failure, nobody thought it was a big deal. I don't see how they are going to bring it up again, unless situtation changes dramatically for the worse.

Santi Asoke might be a sect with Chamlong as their secular leader, but what are the reasons to call it "fundamentalist" - it's just an offshot, not even officially reconginsed. Where in PAD's policies can you find any trace of their "fundamentalists" ideology? What are the reasons to call Chamlong a thug? He's rather Mahatma Gandhi of Thai politics.

If it turns out that Thaksin has eroded the legal system that it can no longer do what clearly must be done, or if the case is prevented from reaching the courts, the King may need to step in. Yes it is not exactly democratic, but being passive too long typically requires extreme action to compensate. There are several idioms that reflect that.

“A penny now or a Pound later” comes to mind.

Corruption is a cancer of society. Like any cancer if left untreated too long it will eventually kill the host. The question that will be answered in the coming weeks is the patient past the point of no return. If the patient is past that point, then in Buddhist belief reincarnation would be next.

If the patient is not past the point of no return, then administration of the necessary medicines will need to be given by someone if the patient is too ill to self administer.

I don’t know all the laws Thaksin changed, but I doubt he would change any that would weaken his position. I think it’s safe to assume that if the laws were the same as when he took office, he would be long gone by now.

I think we all know the feeling ‘Oh justice will finally be served’ followed by ‘how did they come up with that one’ or ‘say what???!!!’ I think that is a universal feeling for all that are concerned from the top down.