Thailand Default Risk Soars

[Senechal]

As they say, "History does not repeat, but it often rhymes"

The setup may be different between now and 1997 -- but will the results be the same?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-19/thai-default-risk-soars-as-funds-pull-4-billion-southeast-asia.html

[i claudius]

No they wont be the same ,but i wish the baht would go to about 60 to the pound.

[sam sen]

No they wont be the same ,but i wish the baht would go to about 60 to the pound.

dont be so pessimistic bring back the days 0f 72/74 to the pound

[MJP]

$4billion US gets pulled out by some 'fund' and these have the temerity to mention default after half the West has printed trillions to hide tranche after tranche of toxic MBS and CDO?

If that wasn't default, then?

[Naam]

Thai Default Risk Soars...

The risk of Thailand defaulting on its debt rose to the highest since June 2012 as anti-government protests prompt money managers to sell the nation’s assets.

Credit-default swaps insuring Thai debt against non-payment for five years rose to 158

The spread has widened 53 basis points since anti-government protest broke out on Oct. 31, compared with increases of 30 for Indonesia and 19 for the Philippines.

an example par excellence how Bloomberg journàsslists present extreme rubbish in a sensational way. using expressions such as "soars" and "selling the nations assets" will -and has already - fuelled the wet exchange rate dreams of some of Thailands expats.

as far as credit default swaps are concerned there must be more than a hundred countries on this globe who would be glad if their CDSs trade at 158 notwithstanding the fact that they "soared" 8 points.

to add polish to the served bullshit not the actual CDS of Indonesia and the Philippines are mentioned but just the increase.

for the record: Indonesia's CDS trade presently at 215

Edited January 20, 2014 by Naam

[Senechal]

$4billion US gets pulled out by some 'fund' and these have the temerity to mention default after half the West has printed trillions to hide tranche after tranche of toxic MBS and CDO?

If that wasn't default, then?

Not sure why you think it's a single fund.

Agree with you re: US. Once you're printing you're tacitly admitting you can't pay otherwise. You're skimming (stealing) the wealth of the US populace to prevent default.

But the US (rightly or wrongly) gets a free pass where Thailand will not IMHO. Particularly because there's a general fear of EM's at the moment so Thailand gets whacked twice -- once on political instability and once on general EM capital flight.

[SheungWan]

$4billion US gets pulled out by some 'fund' and these have the temerity to mention default after half the West has printed trillions to hide tranche after tranche of toxic MBS and CDO?

If that wasn't default, then?

It wasn't.

[paddyjenkins]

Thai Default Risk Soars...

The risk of Thailand defaulting on its debt rose to the highest since June 2012 as anti-government protests prompt money managers to sell the nation’s assets.

Credit-default swaps insuring Thai debt against non-payment for five years rose to 158

The spread has widened 53 basis points since anti-government protest broke out on Oct. 31, compared with increases of 30 for Indonesia and 19 for the Philippines.

an example par excellence how Bloomberg journàsslists present extreme rubbish in a sensational way. using expressions such as "soars" and "selling the nations assets" will -and has already - fuelled the wet exchange rate dreams of some of Thailands expats.

as far as credit default swaps are concerned there must be more than a hundred countries on this globe who would be glad if their CDSs trade at 158 notwithstanding the fact that they "soared" 8 points.

to add polish to the served bullshit not the actual CDS of Indonesia and the Philippines are eat mentioned but just the increase.

for the record: Indonesia's CDS trade presently at 215

Modest the rise in the cds may be but thailand is still an emerging market country that threatens to morph into a failed state status. As i said would happen last year, thai stocks have fallen and i would still not touch their stocks, bonds or currency with a barge pole, there are much higher quality risks out there. We need to see greater falls before this market can be considered sensibly valued.

I can however understand that people like Naam must be shitting in their already soiled underwear, not just due to incontinence, but because it must be scary to be so long this shitty market.

[olfu]

Gee, a lot of scientifically looking talking and the fact is the baht is stable for at least one

year.

[Naam]

Thai Default Risk Soars...

The risk of Thailand defaulting on its debt rose to the highest since June 2012 as anti-government protests prompt money managers to sell the nation’s assets.

Credit-default swaps insuring Thai debt against non-payment for five years rose to 158

The spread has widened 53 basis points since anti-government protest broke out on Oct. 31, compared with increases of 30 for Indonesia and 19 for the Philippines.

an example par excellence how Bloomberg journàsslists present extreme rubbish in a sensational way. using expressions such as "soars" and "selling the nations assets" will -and has already - fuelled the wet exchange rate dreams of some of Thailands expats.

as far as credit default swaps are concerned there must be more than a hundred countries on this globe who would be glad if their CDSs trade at 158 notwithstanding the fact that they "soared" 8 points.

to add polish to the served bullshit not the actual CDS of Indonesia and the Philippines are eat mentioned but just the increase.

for the record: Indonesia's CDS trade presently at 215

Modest the rise in the cds may be but thailand is still an emerging market country that threatens to morph into a failed state status. As i said would happen last year, thai stocks have fallen and i would still not touch their stocks, bonds or currency with a barge pole, there are much higher quality risks out there. We need to see greater falls before this market can be considered sensibly valued.

I can however understand that people like Naam must be shitting in their already soiled underwear, not just due to incontinence, but because it must be scary to be so long this shitty market.

let's start with assumptions... and concentrate on "soiled underwear... scary... long in this shitty market". may i assume that this comment originates from one of the bunch who draws 3,000 Baht from an ATM to cover his weekly food shopping at Tesco, then soils his underwear and complains bitterly in Thaivisa about the racist 150 Baht charge the bad Thais impose on foreigners?

let's leave the assumptions and concentrate on facts:

-anybody who read a dozen of my postings is well aware that i never touch stocks. neither Thai nor any other stocks.

-correct is that since 9½ years i am long Thai Baht. always kept and still keep a couple of hundred thousand US Dollars in THB, a part in Thailand and a part offshore, the latter because it is easier to convert.

-earlier i saved a fistful of million Baht just by buying all required currency well in advance for building my home. during the afore-mentioned period THB appreciated (on average) continously vs. my main 'income currency' USD, i.e. no reason to soil any underwear.

-those who "did not touch THB with a barge pole" are now lamenting "if only i had bought when the Baht was trading xx.yy vs. [insert currency]". fact is that THB was 30% weaker when i decided to retire in Thailand and presently it is surprisingly strong when taken the political turmoil into consideration.

-only time will tell whether Thailand "morphs into a failed state status". the jury is still out and those who predicted failure (especially Thai Baht will fall into the abyss) in hundreds of Thaivisa postings since i joined were wrong.

any additional intelligent assumptions? perhaps with a few attached facts?

[SheungWan]

Thai Default Risk Soars...

The risk of Thailand defaulting on its debt rose to the highest since June 2012 as anti-government protests prompt money managers to sell the nation’s assets.

Credit-default swaps insuring Thai debt against non-payment for five years rose to 158

The spread has widened 53 basis points since anti-government protest broke out on Oct. 31, compared with increases of 30 for Indonesia and 19 for the Philippines.

an example par excellence how Bloomberg journàsslists present extreme rubbish in a sensational way. using expressions such as "soars" and "selling the nations assets" will -and has already - fuelled the wet exchange rate dreams of some of Thailands expats.

as far as credit default swaps are concerned there must be more than a hundred countries on this globe who would be glad if their CDSs trade at 158 notwithstanding the fact that they "soared" 8 points.

to add polish to the served bullshit not the actual CDS of Indonesia and the Philippines are eat mentioned but just the increase.

for the record: Indonesia's CDS trade presently at 215

Modest the rise in the cds may be but thailand is still an emerging market country that threatens to morph into a failed state status. As i said would happen last year, thai stocks have fallen and i would still not touch their stocks, bonds or currency with a barge pole, there are much higher quality risks out there. We need to see greater falls before this market can be considered sensibly valued.

I can however understand that people like Naam must be shitting in their already soiled underwear, not just due to incontinence, but because it must be scary to be so long this shitty market.

Since Naam is not in Thai stocks you appear to have fired a poison-tipped bullet at the wrong person or is it that you wanted to fire a bullet at Naam and the gun jammed?

Edited January 21, 2014 by SheungWan

[SheungWan]

Gee, a lot of scientifically looking talking and the fact is the baht is stable for at least one

year.

From last April the baht has lost about 20% against sterling. That is volatile not stable.

Edited January 21, 2014 by SheungWan

[Senechal]

There are really 2 different questions: Long term outlook, and short term outlook.

Near term, things look ugly. The political situation is not going to just blow over and go away. This is likely going to be a very bumpy ride IMHO. Equity markets look terrible at this juncture, and the THB will get taken to the woodshed if we start seeing scenes of bloodshed on TV and more hot money runs for the exits.

Long term, Thailand isn't going to go over the cliff edge. Yes, household debt is at scary levels. Yes, there are loads of populist programs that will (and must) be scaled back because they're unsustainable. (I think we can pretty much consider the infrastructure bill dead at this point -- but if it comes back to life somehow, then the near-term prognosis certainly looks better at the cost of the long term). Yes, the minimum wage hike is still going to slaughter SME's, particularly when ASEAN kicks in and SME's either run for the nearest border or get slaughtered by ASEAN competitors with cheaper labor. Yes, there's a silly real estate bubble in Thailand which must fall back in line with salaries which have plateaued and household credit which has peaked. BUT.... ASEAN is going to be a medium-term growth machine. The population is young. And Thailand is becoming an export powerhouse to be reckoned with -- and stands to benefit in a big way over the next decade IMHO.

Wild cards are of course, China's economy (which is anyone's guess), the US taper (which is also anyone's guess), Australia's coming real-estate implosion, Europe's coming reckoning with itself ... and war (which if history is any guide, is coming).

Anyone who thinks they know what's going to happen with all those moving parts, is full of it IMHO. But 'near term' is an easier guess and I don't see how it doesn't get ugly.

[Naam]

Anyone who thinks they know what's going to happen with all those moving parts, is full of it IMHO.

[paddyjenkins]

Thai Default Risk Soars...

The risk of Thailand defaulting on its debt rose to the highest since June 2012 as anti-government protests prompt money managers to sell the nation’s assets.

Credit-default swaps insuring Thai debt against non-payment for five years rose to 158

The spread has widened 53 basis points since anti-government protest broke out on Oct. 31, compared with increases of 30 for Indonesia and 19 for the Philippines.

an example par excellence how Bloomberg journàsslists present extreme rubbish in a sensational way. using expressions such as "soars" and "selling the nations assets" will -and has already - fuelled the wet exchange rate dreams of some of Thailands expats.

as far as credit default swaps are concerned there must be more than a hundred countries on this globe who would be glad if their CDSs trade at 158 notwithstanding the fact that they "soared" 8 points.

to add polish to the served bullshit not the actual CDS of Indonesia and the Philippines are eat mentioned but just the increase.

for the record: Indonesia's CDS trade presently at 215

Modest the rise in the cds may be but thailand is still an emerging market country that threatens to morph into a failed state status. As i said would happen last year, thai stocks have fallen and i would still not touch their stocks, bonds or currency with a barge pole, there are much higher quality risks out there. We need to see greater falls before this market can be considered sensibly valued.

I can however understand that people like Naam must be shitting in their already soiled underwear, not just due to incontinence, but because it must be scary to be so long this shitty market.

let's start with assumptions... and concentrate on "soiled underwear... scary... long in this shitty market". may i assume that this comment originates from one of the bunch who draws 3,000 Baht from an ATM to cover his weekly food shopping at Tesco, then soils his underwear and complains bitterly in Thaivisa about the racist 150 Baht charge the bad Thais impose on foreigners?

let's leave the assumptions and concentrate on facts:

-anybody who read a dozen of my postings is well aware that i never touch stocks. neither Thai nor any other stocks.

-correct is that since 9½ years i am long Thai Baht. always kept and still keep a couple of hundred thousand US Dollars in THB, a part in Thailand and a part offshore, the latter because it is easier to convert.

-earlier i saved a fistful of million Baht just by buying all required currency well in advance for building my home. during the afore-mentioned period THB appreciated (on average) continously vs. my main 'income currency' USD, i.e. no reason to soil any underwear.

-those who "did not touch THB with a barge pole" are now lamenting "if only i had bought when the Baht was trading xx.yy vs. [insert currency]". fact is that THB was 30% weaker when i decided to retire in Thailand and presently it is surprisingly strong when taken the political turmoil into consideration.

-only time will tell whether Thailand "morphs into a failed state status". the jury is still out and those who predicted failure (especially Thai Baht will fall into the abyss) in hundreds of Thaivisa postings since i joined were wrong.

any additional intelligent assumptions? perhaps with a few attached facts?

L-dog vvvs.jpg

Can you not read, already senile perhaps and not just incontinent? Where did i say you were long thai stocks, i just said long, i didnt say what.

I however was long thai stocks from after sars till 2012....made 400% or so not counting dividends...how does that compare to the returns on your bonds even as a forest gump riding a historic bond rally of momentous proportions?

But i took my profits on my thai stocks and moved on...i have no rose tinted glasses about thailand, a country teetering on the edge.

As for your 3000 baht grocery bill, thats putting you into perspective for me, thanks...not quite as rich as you pretend to be are you if that is your measure of success.

[Naam]

Can you not read, already senile perhaps and not just incontinent? Where did i say you were long thai stocks, i just said long, i didnt say what.

I however was long thai stocks from after sars till 2012....made 400% or so not counting dividends...how does that compare to the returns on your bonds even as a forest gump riding a historic bond rally of momentous proportions?

But i took my profits on my thai stocks and moved on...i have no rose tinted glasses about thailand, a country teetering on the edge.

As for your 3000 baht grocery bill, thats putting you into perspective for me, thanks...not quite as rich as you pretend to be are you if that is your measure of success.

quite a lame rebuttal spiced with a 400% bragging, senility and incontinence... otherwise no facts just tail tugging. you have my sympathy poor little Paddy.

[mmh8]

Thai Default Risk Soars...

The risk of Thailand defaulting on its debt rose to the highest since June 2012 as anti-government protests prompt money managers to sell the nation’s assets.

Credit-default swaps insuring Thai debt against non-payment for five years rose to 158

The spread has widened 53 basis points since anti-government protest broke out on Oct. 31, compared with increases of 30 for Indonesia and 19 for the Philippines.

an example par excellence how Bloomberg journàsslists present extreme rubbish in a sensational way. using expressions such as "soars" and "selling the nations assets" will -and has already - fuelled the wet exchange rate dreams of some of Thailands expats.

as far as credit default swaps are concerned there must be more than a hundred countries on this globe who would be glad if their CDSs trade at 158 notwithstanding the fact that they "soared" 8 points.

to add polish to the served bullshit not the actual CDS of Indonesia and the Philippines are mentioned but just the increase.

for the record: Indonesia's CDS trade presently at 215

I never took you for the bitter type before Naam, oh missed opportunities eh

[bitcoinbob]

CDS to trade up 8 points in a day is a lot, basically insurance on 10 million dollars on Thai bonds went up 8,000 for the year. $158,000 for coverage korea is 70, spain is 120, italy is 145, greece is 505, dubai is 202 just want to give you some pricing china is 138 up 16 looks like were china goes thailand goes japan is 50, u.s .27.50 hope that helps the big joke about CDS trading is if you buy U.S. converge and they default what currency are you going to get paid in?

[Naam]

Thai Default Risk Soars...

The risk of Thailand defaulting on its debt rose to the highest since June 2012 as anti-government protests prompt money managers to sell the nation’s assets.

Credit-default swaps insuring Thai debt against non-payment for five years rose to 158

The spread has widened 53 basis points since anti-government protest broke out on Oct. 31, compared with increases of 30 for Indonesia and 19 for the Philippines.

an example par excellence how Bloomberg journàsslists present extreme rubbish in a sensational way. using expressions such as "soars" and "selling the nations assets" will -and has already - fuelled the wet exchange rate dreams of some of Thailands expats.

as far as credit default swaps are concerned there must be more than a hundred countries on this globe who would be glad if their CDSs trade at 158 notwithstanding the fact that they "soared" 8 points.

to add polish to the served bullshit not the actual CDS of Indonesia and the Philippines are mentioned but just the increase.

for the record: Indonesia's CDS trade presently at 215

I never took you for the bitter type before Naam, oh missed opportunities eh

facts are facts. neither bitter nor sweet. only the result can turn out bitter or sweet for an individual. personally i couldn't care less whether Thailand's CDS trade at 158 or 1,580. from a personal point of view the latter, which would imply a potential default, is even desirable because it would weaken the Baht considerably.

fact is also that only total ignorants use "default" in context with "CDS @ 158".

as i'm in the same boat like most expats who use their offshore income, converted into Baht, to pay for ~80% of my living expenses it is only normal that i'd welcome a weak Baht. but that doesn't mean that i make forecasts based on wishful thinking and paint a gloom&doom picture.

[FiftyTwo]

as i'm in the same boat like most expats who use their offshore income, converted into Baht, to pay for ~80% of my living expenses it is only normal that i'd welcome a weak Baht. but that doesn't mean that i make forecasts based on wishful thinking and paint a gloom&doom picture.

I'm still forecasting 60 to the GPB later this year.

[Naam]

CDS to trade up 8 points in a day is a lot, basically insurance on 10 million dollars on Thai bonds went up 8,000 for the year. $158,000 for coverage korea is 70, spain is 120, italy is 145, greece is 505, dubai is 202 just want to give you some pricing china is 138 up 16 looks like were china goes thailand goes japan is 50, u.s .27.50 hope that helps the big joke about CDS trading is if you buy U.S. converge and they default what currency are you going to get paid in?

traditionally the overwhelming share (>95%) of Credit Default Swaps is denominated in USD and €UR. very rare are CDS denominated in AUD, ¥EN, GBP and a few other "hard" currencies.

CDS denominated in insignificant "Micky Mouse" currencies such as Thai Baht do not exist.

in theory CDS imply a default probability but they are not necessarily a guideline for an actual sovereign default. Venezuela's CDS trade since two decades above 1,000 and up to 1,500. however the country's last default was 32 years ago. risk aware investors made a fortune with Venezuela's sovereign debt since more than 20 years.

[Naam]

as i'm in the same boat like most expats who use their offshore income, converted into Baht, to pay for ~80% of my living expenses it is only normal that i'd welcome a weak Baht. but that doesn't mean that i make forecasts based on wishful thinking and paint a gloom&doom picture.

I'm still forecasting 60 to the GPB later this year.

in forex anything is possible. may the force be with you!

[Naam]

CDS to trade up 8 points in a day is a lot, basically insurance on 10 million dollars on Thai bonds went up 8,000 for the year. $158,000 for coverage korea is 70, spain is 120, italy is 145, greece is 505, dubai is 202 just want to give you some pricing china is 138 up 16 looks like were china goes thailand goes japan is 50, u.s .27.50 hope that helps the big joke about CDS trading is if you buy U.S. converge and they default what currency are you going to get paid in?

Japan @ 50 is an excellent value and hard evidence that CDS per se have no influence on the value of a currency.

for the record: Japanese Yen lost 34% vs. US-Dollar during the last 16 months.

[paddyjenkins]

CDS to trade up 8 points in a day is a lot, basically insurance on 10 million dollars on Thai bonds went up 8,000 for the year. $158,000 for coverage korea is 70, spain is 120, italy is 145, greece is 505, dubai is 202 just want to give you some pricing china is 138 up 16 looks like were china goes thailand goes japan is 50, u.s .27.50 hope that helps the big joke about CDS trading is if you buy U.S. converge and they default what currency are you going to get paid in?

Japan @ 50 is an excellent value and hard evidence that CDS per se have no influence on the value of a currency.

for the record: Japanese Yen lost 34% vs. US-Dollar during the last 16 months.

It is obviously stupid to say fx rates don't and/or cant have any bearing on or correlation with cds rates or vice versa. Citing the recent jpy weakness is also stupid as this weakness was engineered. In the extreme case of a country defaulting the currency will be weak and cds high. To deny that just suggests a total lack of understanding.

Its always the case that a long rally such as in bonds for 30 years will create people who have made some money by dumb luck but remain ignorant of the markets and economics. But those people of course believe themselves to be geniuses. Very dangerous for naive people who listen to these "geniuses".

[leosuntime]

I think the whole world is slowly relearning what a bond is and what interest rates represent in relation to private savings of intrinsic money.

That process of learning will be or is called the great rotation. I guess many people want to make the switch right now but worry that the rest of the investing community may not follow in the near future.

The problems happening in Thailand are the very mechanism which sparks investor attention and may lead to questions like.

Are the Banks safe? Why are the Banks not safe to begin with?

Can the central banks ease interest rate fears if there is a full blown civil war?

The big question is.

How bad will it GET?

Then if it gets real bad are you going to accept the truth and run with the heard? There is only one door. and its still open.

[Gsxrnz]

Everybody seems to want the baht to do this or the pound to do that, or the SET to do this/that or the other.

Any so-called investor/speculator who wants one thing to happen is either too long for too much in one specific instrument, or more likely, only has one specific instrument (read: risk).

While I'm no fan of Warren Buffet, he did get one thing right, and I quote: 'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful'

You can't make money in a stable market (national or international). Long live volatility and I don't give a monkey's if my NZD or the THB or the CHF all do a topsy turvy and <deleted> themselves 7 times over - because if they're at a trough, they have to climb out, and if they're at a peak they have to fall.

Volatility generates profit, stability rarely does (unless you consider the 2 or 3% from your building society TD as "profit"....yeah right.

[Naam]

CDS to trade up 8 points in a day is a lot, basically insurance on 10 million dollars on Thai bonds went up 8,000 for the year. $158,000 for coverage korea is 70, spain is 120, italy is 145, greece is 505, dubai is 202 just want to give you some pricing china is 138 up 16 looks like were china goes thailand goes japan is 50, u.s .27.50 hope that helps the big joke about CDS trading is if you buy U.S. converge and they default what currency are you going to get paid in?

Japan @ 50 is an excellent value and hard evidence that CDS per se have no influence on the value of a currency.

for the record: Japanese Yen lost 34% vs. US-Dollar during the last 16 months.

It is obviously stupid to say fx rates don't and/or cant have any bearing on or correlation with cds rates or vice versa. Citing the recent jpy weakness is also stupid as this weakness was engineered. In the extreme case of a country defaulting the currency will be weak and cds high. To deny that just suggests a total lack of understanding.

Its always the case that a long rally such as in bonds for 30 years will create people who have made some money by dumb luck but remain ignorant of the markets and economics. But those people of course believe themselves to be geniuses. Very dangerous for naive people who listen to these "geniuses".

i am strongly considering to agree with everything obviously stupid posted in this forum.

reason: it's a pure waste of time to argue with stupid people.

[Gsxrnz]

Everybody seems to want the baht to do this or the pound to do that, or the SET to do this/that or the other.

Any so-called investor/speculator who wants one thing to happen is either too long for too much in one specific instrument, or more likely, only has one specific instrument (read: risk).

While I'm no fan of Warren Buffet, he did get one thing right, and I quote: 'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful'

You can't make money in a stable market (national or international). Long live volatility and I don't give a monkey's if my NZD or the THB or the CHF all do a topsy turvy and <deleted> themselves 7 times over - because if they're at a trough, they have to climb out, and if they're at a peak they have to fall.

Volatility generates profit, stability rarely does (unless you consider the 2 or 3% from your building society TD as "profit"....yeah right.

[Naam]

I think the whole world is slowly relearning what a bond is and what interest rates represent in relation to private savings of intrinsic money.

That process of learning will be or is called the great rotation. I guess many people want to make the switch right now but worry that the rest of the investing community may not follow in the near future.

The problems happening in Thailand are the very mechanism which sparks investor attention and may lead to questions like.

Are the Banks safe? Why are the Banks not safe to begin with?

Can the central banks ease interest rate fears if there is a full blown civil war?

The big question is.

How bad will it GET?

Then if it gets real bad are you going to accept the truth and run with the heard? There is only one door. and its still open.

please tell us more about that open door. or is it a secret?

[paddyjenkins]

CDS to trade up 8 points in a day is a lot, basically insurance on 10 million dollars on Thai bonds went up 8,000 for the year. $158,000 for coverage korea is 70, spain is 120, italy is 145, greece is 505, dubai is 202 just want to give you some pricing china is 138 up 16 looks like were china goes thailand goes japan is 50, u.s .27.50 hope that helps the big joke about CDS trading is if you buy U.S. converge and they default what currency are you going to get paid in?

Japan @ 50 is an excellent value and hard evidence that CDS per se have no influence on the value of a currency.

for the record: Japanese Yen lost 34% vs. US-Dollar during the last 16 months.

It is obviously stupid to say fx rates don't and/or cant have any bearing on or correlation with cds rates or vice versa. Citing the recent jpy weakness is also stupid as this weakness was engineered. In the extreme case of a country defaulting the currency will be weak and cds high. To deny that just suggests a total lack of understanding.

Its always the case that a long rally such as in bonds for 30 years will create people who have made some money by dumb luck but remain ignorant of the markets and economics. But those people of course believe themselves to be geniuses. Very dangerous for naive people who listen to these "geniuses".

i am strongly considering to agree with everything obviously stupid posted in this forum.

reason: it's a pure waste of time to argue with stupid people.

L-dog vvvs.jpg

Then all you really need to do is agree with pretty much every statement you've made