Thai exports drop 0.3% in 2013 – first contraction in 4 yrs

[Lite Beer]

Thai exports drop 0.3% in 2013 – first contraction in 4 yrs
By Digital Content

BANGKOK, Jan 31 – Thailand’s exports last year declined by 0.3 per cent from the preceding year – the country's first such deficit in four years, a senior Commerce Ministry official said today.

Srirat Rastapana, permanent secretary for commerce, reported last year’s export value at US$228.5 billion and imports at US$250.7 billion, or a 0.29 per cent increase.

She said Thailand’s export deficit was less severe than those of Malaysia and Indonesia, both of which reported deficits at 8.96 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.

Vietnam, on the other hand, enjoyed a 16.47 per cent export growth.

Exports in December enjoyed a slight increase to US$18.4 billion despite registering a deficit in the three preceding months.

She predicted Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 3-5 per cent this year, which is equivalent to the average projected GDP growth in China, India and Southeast Asian countries.

Regarding the downward trend of Thai baht this year due to the US adjusted measures on quantitative easing, Ms Srirat said Thailand’s medium-term export growth should be at 5 per cent this year.

In the best case, exports could enjoy a double-digit growth, and a deficit in the worst case, she said, adding that the prediction was purely based on economic factors without taking political issues into consideration.

Thailand’s overall economic landscape will not be positive if political conflicts remain unresolved, she said. (MCOT online news)

-- TNA 2014-01-31

[wellwell]

Wait till ASEAN 2015 bites next year.

Thailand will pay the price for that one. I will certainly only be employing non-Thai labour, they are better and more stable. My Thai wife is the one who is dead against Thai workers. I expect a lot to follow our example.

[Naam]

Wait till ASEAN 2015 bites next year.

Thailand will pay the price for that one. I will certainly only be employing non-Thai labour, they are better and more stable. My Thai wife is the one who is dead against Thai workers. I expect a lot to follow our example.

do you really think that ASEAN 2015 will have any impact on non-Thai labour policies over and above the existing policy as far as labour from Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia is concerned?

i studied the 59 pages a couple of years ago and my uneducated conclusion is

"a lot of bla-bla-bla, nothing really tangible".

check it out:

http://www.asean.org/archive/5187-10.pdf

example:

A5. Free flow of skilled labour

33. In allowing for managed mobility or facilitated entry for the movement of natural persons engaged in trade in goods, services, and investments, according to the prevailing regulations of the receiving country, ASEAN is working to:

Action:

i. Facilitate the issuance of visas and employment passes for ASEAN professionals and skilled labour who are engaged in cross-border trade and investment related activities.

Edited January 31, 2014 by Naam

[i claudius]

Wait till ASEAN 2015 bites next year.

Thailand will pay the price for that one. I will certainly only be employing non-Thai labour, they are better and more stable. My Thai wife is the one who is dead against Thai workers. I expect a lot to follow our example.

Not the first time i have heard this ,i was talking to someone who has 3 buisnesses ,he and his Thai wife only employ Cambodian workers where they can ,as they are"more reliable ,work harder and are cheaper" their words not mine.

[midas]

Wait till ASEAN 2015 bites next year.

Thailand will pay the price for that one. I will certainly only be employing non-Thai labour, they are better and more stable. My Thai wife is the one who is dead against Thai workers. I expect a lot to follow our example.

i think Naam is correct

“The biggest myth about the AEC is that there will be free flow of labour,” she said. “But to this point it is only highly skilled labour that can move, and it isn’t that freely.

“Only Singapore is trying to promote the free flow of skilled labour. Thailand doesn’t want to change anything anytime soon, and most Asean member want to keep the status quo. Don’t forget MRAs are still voluntary.

http://www.norcham.com/news/why-the-aec-in-2015-will-lead-to-few-changes-in-thailand

[Naam]

i think Naam is correct

even a blind chicken finds a grain sometimes

[fifthcolumn]

Dec 2013 will mark the demise of the THB and Thai economy. If Thailand cannot sort out its politics and especially if there is violence. Government is starting to have serious debt issues. Consumer debt at record highs as well as corporate borrowing. Thailand was never really competitive in the region insofar as labor. Thailand has very low productivity rates. Massive 1br condo bubble. Thailand has lost it's western tourists and they won't be back, this will eventually leave holes in upper and lower ends of the sector. Finally, it's a gut feeling but I think the message is out in the expat eorld, Thailand's best days are behind her, you need a reason to retire/long stay here. If Thailsnd blows up again, imo this will signal to anumber of entities that it is not a place to invest. Japanese will move everytbing aside from auto mfg.

US Fed already starts unwinding

Waiting for China to implode

We will see USD1/THB38+ again

[Naam]

Dec 2013 will mark the demise of the THB and Thai economy. If Thailand cannot sort out its politics and especially if there is violence. Government is starting to have serious debt issues. Consumer debt at record highs as well as corporate borrowing. Thailand was never really competitive in the region insofar as labor. Thailand has very low productivity rates. Massive 1br condo bubble. Thailand has lost it's western tourists and they won't be back, this will eventually leave holes in upper and lower ends of the sector. Finally, it's a gut feeling but I think the message is out in the expat eorld, Thailand's best days are behind her, you need a reason to retire/long stay here. If Thailsnd blows up again, imo this will signal to anumber of entities that it is not a place to invest. Japanese will move everytbing aside from auto mfg.

US Fed already starts unwinding

Waiting for China to implode

We will see USD1/THB38+ again

and by the end of this year it will turn out that Santa Claus is a ladyboy

[Naam]

Dec 2013 will mark the demise of the THB and Thai economy. If Thailand cannot sort out its politics and especially if there is violence. Government is starting to have serious debt issues. Consumer debt at record highs as well as corporate borrowing. Thailand was never really competitive in the region insofar as labor. Thailand has very low productivity rates. Massive 1br condo bubble. Thailand has lost it's western tourists and they won't be back, this will eventually leave holes in upper and lower ends of the sector. Finally, it's a gut feeling but I think the message is out in the expat eorld, Thailand's best days are behind her, you need a reason to retire/long stay here. If Thailsnd blows up again, imo this will signal to anumber of entities that it is not a place to invest. Japanese will move everytbing aside from auto mfg.

US Fed already starts unwinding

Waiting for China to implode

We will see USD1/THB38+ again

meanwhile in Thailand...

$ 32.67000

€ 44.05125

£ 53.25125

[fifthcolumn]

You guys are smart, you know fx doesn't move without a reason. I never said it was going to be yesterday. But it is coming. You can also add the following:

Over supply of office building

Intl stock markets due for a tumble (esp US)

Emerging markets money exiting intl markets

Again, Fed will unwind and this must push thb lower. New Fed chair signals new direction, already happening.

Intl investors as well as local will not loan Thailand money, perhaps at great interest - the govt is rudderless.

Tourist season good as over, poor showing and that will have to hold the big corporations till next year (watch for TAT "marketing campaign" aka cash infusion direct to large Sino-Thai hotel groups).

Then there is all last years rice - and this years rice (and the farmers at the gates demanding payment).

We shall see.

What do you see strengthening the baht?

Edited February 7, 2014 by fifthcolumn

[Naam]

What do you see strengthening the baht?

perhaps next year's rice?

[i claudius]

well my wife has decided not to replant her 20 rai ,so less for the govt to worry about and no money for the guy who usually tends it.

[midas]

You guys are smart, you know fx doesn't move without a reason. I never said it was going to be yesterday. But it is coming. You can also add the following:

Over supply of office building

Intl stock markets due for a tumble (esp US)

Emerging markets money exiting intl markets

Again, Fed will unwind and this must push thb lower. New Fed chair signals new direction, already happening.

Intl investors as well as local will not loan Thailand money, perhaps at great interest - the govt is rudderless.

Tourist season good as over, poor showing and that will have to hold the big corporations till next year (watch for TAT "marketing campaign" aka cash infusion direct to large Sino-Thai hotel groups).

Then there is all last years rice - and this years rice (and the farmers at the gates demanding payment).

We shall see.

What do you see strengthening the baht?

" Intl stock markets due for a tumble (esp US) "

20 to 30%, according to Marc Faber 2 days ago

Edited February 7, 2014 by midas

[Naam]

You guys are smart, you know fx doesn't move without a reason. I never said it was going to be yesterday. But it is coming. You can also add the following:

Over supply of office building

Intl stock markets due for a tumble (esp US)

Emerging markets money exiting intl markets

Again, Fed will unwind and this must push thb lower. New Fed chair signals new direction, already happening.

Intl investors as well as local will not loan Thailand money, perhaps at great interest - the govt is rudderless.

Tourist season good as over, poor showing and that will have to hold the big corporations till next year (watch for TAT "marketing campaign" aka cash infusion direct to large Sino-Thai hotel groups).

Then there is all last years rice - and this years rice (and the farmers at the gates demanding payment).

We shall see.

What do you see strengthening the baht?

" Intl stock markets due for a tumble (esp US) "

20 to 30%, according to Marc Faber 2 days ago

Marc Faber predicts that stocks will drop by 20 percent to 30 percent in the near future.

"I think the market is way overdue for a 20 to 30 percent correction," said Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. But that is "nothing that worries me," he said.

"I think stocks are, by and large, fully priced," Faber said. "I think the experience with quantitative easing is a complete failure.

Faber has long been bearish on the market—a call that obviously has not played out well over the past five years.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101389404

the bullshitter, and those who listened to his bullshit, missed five good years

[midas]

You guys are smart, you know fx doesn't move without a reason. I never said it was going to be yesterday. But it is coming. You can also add the following:

Over supply of office building

Intl stock markets due for a tumble (esp US)

Emerging markets money exiting intl markets

Again, Fed will unwind and this must push thb lower. New Fed chair signals new direction, already happening.

Intl investors as well as local will not loan Thailand money, perhaps at great interest - the govt is rudderless.

Tourist season good as over, poor showing and that will have to hold the big corporations till next year (watch for TAT "marketing campaign" aka cash infusion direct to large Sino-Thai hotel groups).

Then there is all last years rice - and this years rice (and the farmers at the gates demanding payment).

We shall see.

What do you see strengthening the baht?

" Intl stock markets due for a tumble (esp US) "

20 to 30%, according to Marc Faber 2 days ago

Marc Faber predicts that stocks will drop by 20 percent to 30 percent in the near future.

"I think the market is way overdue for a 20 to 30 percent correction," said Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. But that is "nothing that worries me," he said.

"I think stocks are, by and large, fully priced," Faber said. "I think the experience with quantitative easing is a complete failure.

Faber has long been bearish on the market—a call that obviously has not played out well over the past five years.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101389404

the bullshitter, and those who listened to his bullshit, missed five good years

he said

" "the experience with quantitative easing is a complete failure. It has lifted asset prices and created asset inflation, but it hasn't lifted the standard of living of most people in the U.S. nor worldwide."

please say what is bullshit about that ?

[Naam]

bullshit is that Faber announces since several years the "big crash" and that every other month,sometimes several months in a row. all what one has to do is looking how assets of all sorts have fared to recognise the rubbish he produces. somehow i have the feeling that CNBC and Bloomberg let him talk to ridicule himself.

take a look at his monthly gloom&doom publications which nearly alsways start with quotes of people who are long dead and a long yada yada yakety-yak with what celebrity, where, and in which restaurant he had what kind of meal.

a pathetic bald man with a pony tail.

[Asiantravel]

bullshit is that Faber announces since several years the "big crash" and that every other month,sometimes several months in a row. all what one has to do is looking how assets of all sorts have fared to recognise the rubbish he produces. somehow i have the feeling that CNBC and Bloomberg let him talk to ridicule himself.

take a look at his monthly gloom&doom publications which nearly alsways start with quotes of people who are long dead and a long yada yada yakety-yak with what celebrity, where, and in which restaurant he had what kind of meal.

a pathetic bald man with a pony tail.

how can a bald man have pomy tail?

Edited February 8, 2014 by Asiantravel

[i claudius]

bullshit is that Faber announces since several years the "big crash" and that every other month,sometimes several months in a row. all what one has to do is looking how assets of all sorts have fared to recognise the rubbish he produces. somehow i have the feeling that CNBC and Bloomberg let him talk to ridicule himself.

take a look at his monthly gloom&doom publications which nearly alsways start with quotes of people who are long dead and a long yada yada yakety-yak with what celebrity, where, and in which restaurant he had what kind of meal.

a pathetic bald man with a pony tail.

how can a bald man have pomy tail?

Easy ,just ask the <deleted> that walk around Pattaya with a bald head and a a stringy bit of hair at the back trying to pretend that they are young and hip

[Naam]

bullshit is that Faber announces since several years the "big crash" and that every other month,sometimes several months in a row. all what one has to do is looking how assets of all sorts have fared to recognise the rubbish he produces. somehow i have the feeling that CNBC and Bloomberg let him talk to ridicule himself.

take a look at his monthly gloom&doom publications which nearly alsways start with quotes of people who are long dead and a long yada yada yakety-yak with what celebrity, where, and in which restaurant he had what kind of meal.

a pathetic bald man with a pony tail.

how can a bald man have pomy tail?

Easy ,just ask the wanke_rs that walk around Pattaya with a bald head and a a stringy bit of hair at the back trying to pretend that they are young and hip

[Naam]

here's an interesting grading of "gurus" based on 6,582 forecasts from 68 experts (period 2005-2012), bulls and bears employing technical, fundamental and sentiment indicators.

losers = accuracy less than 50%