Thai editorial: Does GSB showdown hint at things to come?

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EDITORIAL
Does GSB showdown hint at things to come?
The Nation

The tussle at the bank shows that political warfare has now entered a financial battlefield; alarm bells are ringing for the economy

BANGKOK: -- The crisis has thrown up yet another strange phenomenon. Friends have crossed paths at Government Savings Bank branches over the past few days, some there to withdraw their money while others were making new deposits. The only thing their visits had in common was that they were all political statements. In the latest case of national division, one side pulled money out of the GSB in protest against its "support" for the controversial rice price-pledging scheme, whereas the other camp wanted to "help" the bank "help" unpaid farmers.

The anti-government camp won this mini-battle of wills. Tens of billions of baht flew out of the GSB last week, eventually forcing its president to resign. Thailand's political crises have furrowed plenty of brows over the years, but the creases are deepening now that the economy seems in genuine danger - because of politics. What happened at the GSB was remarkable because politically divided Thais are now taking a stand through financial behaviour.

Many hope this new tack is just symbolic posturing and won't last. But who knows? When anti-government-protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban called for a national tax boycott, many laughed. What happened at the GSB will remind many of the protesters' much-vaunted call for "civil disobedience". Thailand's crisis has demonstrated a tendency for delivering one big surprise after another. A bank president quit and a bank manager broke into tears over the politically motivated run on deposits. No one can be sure what will happen next.

With the ideological showdown threatening to spill into the realm of finance, politics has suddenly become far more complicated. Warning signs came before the February 2 election. While half the country joined the government in the "Respect my vote" campaign, the other half countered with the rallying cry "Respect my tax". The result was that the majority of eligible voters appeared to reject the ruling party over its contesting the election unchallenged.

The GSB case offers a glimpse of what might happen to Thailand fiscally if the crisis worsens. Democracy, no matter what the idealists say, is only as good as the citizens' ability to fund it. Of course, there must be the yearning for freedom and equality, but even something as noble as democracy requires good financing to support its foundations.

Which is why everybody involved must think hard. "Vote" and "tax" have to go hand in hand in a well-balanced way if democracy is to be effective and healthy. In Thailand, political formulas have been chosen, discarded, revived and dismissed again because we have been unable to find that balance. No matter how hard it's become to find the right formula, the GSB issue must serve as a serious alarm call for a threatened economy.

It warns warring Thais that they must find a peaceful solution now while they still can. Today, the "withdrawing" and "depositing" friends can still take selfies together. The actions of Panthongtae Shinawatra and other GSB depositors are still largely symbolic, and, despite the massive funds withdrawn by "the other side", the bank won't collapse. But we ignore the significance of the GSB case at our peril. Among the various lessons this crisis has taught us, a very important one is that the hour gets late very quickly.

-- The Nation 2014-02-22

[Red Snake]

The people are like robots Suthep says and the robot follow orders. Yes sir, how much sir,

[TheClog]

A run on the thai economy caused by sutheps civil disobedience measures would be a matter of national security.

The government would be able to enforce a SOE with teeth

[waza]

Protests, a failed government, a failing economy, social unrest and corruption running rampant and Yingluck has only been in 3 years. The Shinawatra's have turned a tiger economy into a failed state, turn the land of smiles into the land of violence and amazing Thailand into an international joke. This is a legacy that will haunt Thailand for generations to come.

[SheungWan]

A run on the thai economy caused by sutheps civil disobedience measures would be a matter of national security.

The government would be able to enforce a SOE with teeth

If there is any run on the economy it has originated from government ruinous policies ending up as attempted looting of bank reserves. Have another go.

[moonao]

Companies that have been financially supporting the anti gov protesters will come under financial attack once their names are released... if not officially then hopefully wikileaks style.

[Somtamnication]

Aaaah, the winds of '97 are blowing towards us.

[JRSoul]

Companies that have been financially supporting the anti gov protesters will come under financial attack once their names are released... if not officially then hopefully wikileaks style.

Attack? Or will they gain customers from the >50% who declined to vote in a one-horse PTP election?

[ratcatcher]

The people are like robots Suthep says and the robot follow orders. Yes sir, how much sir,

The people are like robots, Thaksin says and the robot follows orders. Yes sir, how much sir?

See, it works both ways.

[chainarong]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Protests, a failed government, a failing economy, social unrest and corruption running rampant and Yingluck has only been in 3 years. The Shinawatra's have turned a tiger economy into a failed state, turn the land of smiles into the land of violence and amazing Thailand into an international joke. This is a legacy that will haunt Thailand for generations to come.

Beautifully put Wazza

[JRSoul]

A run on the thai economy caused by sutheps civil disobedience measures would be a matter of national security.

The government would be able to enforce a SOE with teeth

What teeth would you use against GSB depositors who decide to withdraw their funds? 50 red shirt thugs outside every branch might work, if there are that many red shirts left.

[GeorgeO]

The people are like robots Suthep says and the robot follow orders. Yes sir, how much sir,

...are you sure you're not talking about the Great Man in Dubai....???!

[moonao]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Companies that have been financially supporting the anti gov protesters will come under financial attack once their names are released... if not officially then hopefully wikileaks style.

Attack? Or will they gain customers from the >50% who declined to vote in a one-horse PTP election?

They wont be able to compete if their supply chains are blocked or cold shouldered, if they have offices in the NE or based in the N- NE... or if other critical groups/businesses they depend on up their prices or refuse to do business...

its the worst financial transaction they have done, by funding these yellow shirt terrorists.

[GeorgeO]

Companies that have been financially supporting the anti gov protesters will come under financial attack once their names are released... if not officially then hopefully wikileaks style.

Moo, why do you continue to post such partisan nonsense?

Now that the DSI and CMPO have literally had their teeth pulled, those companies supporting the anti-government protesters will happily announce themselves, and you will find that there is greater support for them than derision.

And what exactly do you believe the DSI can do against these supportive institutions now that the emergency decree has been rendered ineffective?

Edit to add: I see you've now moved on from "thugs" to "yellow-shirt terrorists", but you still demonstrate little knowledge of what is actually going on...!

Edited February 22, 2014 by GeorgeO

[JRSoul]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Companies that have been financially supporting the anti gov protesters will come under financial attack once their names are released... if not officially then hopefully wikileaks style.

Attack? Or will they gain customers from the >50% who declined to vote in a one-horse PTP election?

They wont be able to compete if their supply chains are blocked or cold shouldered, if they have offices in the NE or based in the N- NE... or if other critical groups/businesses they depend on up their prices or refuse to do business...

its the worst financial transaction they have done, by funding these yellow shirt terrorists.

Oh please! You expect red businesses to turn away an existing CUSTOMER because of a political viewpoint difference?

One of the first things that you learn in a business is that the customer is always right, as is his money. Well, perhaps not you.

[chainarong]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

A run on the thai economy caused by sutheps civil disobedience measures would be a matter of national security.

The government would be able to enforce a SOE with teeth

What teeth would you use against GSB depositors who decide to withdraw their funds? 50 red shirt thugs outside every branch might work, if there are that many red shirts left.

Generally a run on a bank results in the doors closing, frozen deposits , Etc Greece or in my case Citi Bank International 2008

[ChrisY1]

A run on the thai economy caused by sutheps civil disobedience measures would be a matter of national security.

The government would be able to enforce a SOE with teeth

You can't blame Suthep for the run on banks....that's crazy.

The Thai government/s over the past years have done the wrecking....corruption has bled the monies and filled peoples pockets.

What's happening now is a revolt in effect...the people have been wised up and are reacting....ok...the protests have done this and some want to place blame...but it's the countries leaders and lawmakers that have caused this.....

The bad thing now we see, is that the current government doesn't want it to stop and refuses to budge.....som nom na...

[Suriya4]

The people are like robots Suthep says and the robot follow orders. Yes sir, how much sir,

The people are like robots, Thaksin says and the robot follows orders. Yes sir, how much sir?

See, it works both ways.

Clash of the Titans.

[Suriya4]

The people are like robots Suthep says and the robot follow orders. Yes sir, how much sir,

The people are like robots, Thaksin says and the robot follows orders. Yes sir, how much sir?

See, it works both ways.

Clash of the Titans.

[soalbundy]

Protests, a failed government, a failing economy, social unrest and corruption running rampant and Yingluck has only been in 3 years. The Shinawatra's have turned a tiger economy into a failed state, turn the land of smiles into the land of violence and amazing Thailand into an international joke. This is a legacy that will haunt Thailand for generations to come.

That's just the good news,but be fair, they are still learning.

[almafudd]

A run on the thai economy caused by sutheps civil disobedience measures would be a matter of national security.

The government would be able to enforce a SOE with teeth

&lt;deleted&gt;???

Please explain...

[almafudd]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Companies that have been financially supporting the anti gov protesters will come under financial attack once their names are released... if not officially then hopefully wikileaks style.

Attack? Or will they gain customers from the >50% who declined to vote in a one-horse PTP election?

They wont be able to compete if their supply chains are blocked or cold shouldered, if they have offices in the NE or based in the N- NE... or if other critical groups/businesses they depend on up their prices or refuse to do business...

its the worst financial transaction they have done, by funding these yellow shirt terrorists.

terrorists??? lol

[telecom]

A run on the thai economy caused by sutheps civil disobedience measures would be a matter of national security.

The government would be able to enforce a SOE with teeth

Just goes to show you know absolutely nothing about the situation you are commenting on.

Suthep never called for this run on the bank., if you can find me some proof I would be grateful, and then denounce it as BS.

He actually released a statement 2 weeks before saying that if banks want to lend money to the government for the farmers, then they can do it without interference. But it is at their own risk.

This report is totally inaccurate in its composition.

They are saying the withdrawals are politically symbolic, while a few may well be. But what creates a bank run is lack of customer confidence and once a few remove their funds, it creates an avalanche of fear that the bank will lose all liquidity and have to close down cutting off access to customer's money..... ALL THEIR MONEY!

My sister in law withdrew 80,000 baht, not because she was politically motivated, because she feared she would lose it.

Big depositors have so far held off, but by Monday if it is approaching the 200 Bn mark, I can guarantee that when the first large BKK based depositor pounces, the bank will crash.

It will take months or years for assets to be sold off to pay the 1.7 trillion back to depositors and in the meantime many people and businesses will become bankrupt as their money is frozen.

This will make the rice farmer problem look irrelevant...... well done Yingluck, PTP and Thaksin.

[Scamper]

Good article. Indeed, as the writer points out, Suthep's populous calls have got results already far beyond what anyone could have imagined. Who would have thought the farmers would have bonded so massively in anger over the administration - signalling an undeniable political, regional, and historic shift in the country ? Who would have thought that a boycott of Thaksin companies would result in an immediate plunge in the stocks of those companies ? And who would have thought that bank customers all over Thailand would bring a bank with a 100 year history to the brink of collapse with over 100 billion baht in withdrawals in just four days ? That is the power of the people, and it extends far, far beyond the parameters of any particular protest site. When the public themselves are awakened to take action, it can change a society on a dime.

[Why ask]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Companies that have been financially supporting the anti gov protesters will come under financial attack once their names are released... if not officially then hopefully wikileaks style.

Attack? Or will they gain customers from the >50% who declined to vote in a one-horse PTP election?

They wont be able to compete if their supply chains are blocked or cold shouldered, if they have offices in the NE or based in the N- NE... or if other critical groups/businesses they depend on up their prices or refuse to do business...

its the worst financial transaction they have done, by funding these yellow shirt terrorists.

You are missing one important factor. The businesses you refer to operate honestly. They don't depend upon backhanders and graft.

[MK1]

The next battle phase is likely to be those financial intuitions having share holders from 'Vayupak Fund' like SCB and others. It will be difficult to stem the fear of economic-meltdown now that the panic is perpetually in motion.

[mojorison]

Protests, a failed government, a failing economy, social unrest and corruption running rampant and Yingluck has only been in 3 years. The Shinawatra's have turned a tiger economy into a failed state, turn the land of smiles into the land of violence and amazing Thailand into an international joke. This is a legacy that will haunt Thailand for generations to come.

And what were the 20 or so coups since 1932... good governance? Thailand has always been an international enigma politically... it just has nice beaches and friendly locals.

[AryanicAristocrat]

Normal depositors should all withdraw their money from this bank and let this bank collapse and close and if the governments finances it it any way, organise mobs and protests against it. Its one of the worst and most corrupted banks and most of their ordinary staff are involved . Often their lazy staff can be seen taking long breaks and hanging out at Big C Sapahn Kwai and I know of one of the union leaders who bought three condos at Lumpini Suthisan using his position plus his wife also works at the bank! Another older Bank staff used his position to buy 5 units at Family condo , Intahmara soi 25. Normal depositors find it hard to get housing loans but most of their staff use their positions to buy multiple units for themselves. Its really a corrupted bank and there should be investigations launched into their staff. I say let the bank collapse and all their staff without jobs.

[rickirs]

"The anti-government camp won this mini-battle of wills" and farmers go hungry. Thanks for nothing Suthep.

[seajae]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Companies that have been financially supporting the anti gov protesters will come under financial attack once their names are released... if not officially then hopefully wikileaks style.

Attack? Or will they gain customers from the >50% who declined to vote in a one-horse PTP election?

They wont be able to compete if their supply chains are blocked or cold shouldered, if they have offices in the NE or based in the N- NE... or if other critical groups/businesses they depend on up their prices or refuse to do business...

its the worst financial transaction they have done, by funding these yellow shirt terrorists.

yes, unlike those that withdrew their money(general population of thais) the reds(n/ne) will threaten but they have lost a lot of support in these areas now and the people will no longer let them bully them into doing what they want. The reds days are numbered as are those of their support base, the people of Thailand have woken up to all the bullsh*t they espouse and thaksins greed so they will not be fooled by them again. This will only happen in your dreams, hope you enjoy them because in the real world it will not.