Divided Thailand faces warnings of civil war

[coma]

It will be near impossible for the police to remove the protesters. The below picture is why.....

That's someone's Big Momma man!

[Fookhaht]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I appreciate Robby's post. Those who think and plan for any eventuality are the least likely to be unfortunate victims of civil unrest.

I was caught at the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war in 1973 in the Middle East, and since then have always adhered to the following precautions, also taken from the advice of other expats and journalists who have lived/worked in other unsettled regions of the world:

1. Keep passport & accompanying documents up-to-date with no overstay/visa/tax problems. Consider keeping an open-ended air ticket (where the departure/dates times can be changed) to anywhere out of the region, keeping in mind the precaution in #2.

2. Consider an overland exit point due to the fact that the country's main airports would likely be swamped with foreigners and Thais (with means) who would be taking the most obvious exit route. The airport could be overwhelmed for days or weeks.

3. Keep enough cash on hand (read that: "out of the bank") to safely get out of the country.

4. Have at least one or two transportation back-up plans to your exit destination.

5. Keep a "bug-out bag" -- a small backpack ready at all times (documents, water, essential medicines, cash, etc.). If you have a family, inform family members of a rendezvous point away from heavily populated areas.

6. Confide your plans to as few as possible; preferably only to those you trust who might be able to assist you with #2 or #4.

7. Be sure to be on your embassy's notification list, if it exists. The US Embassy maintains a list of those US citizens who voluntarily register their presence in the foreign country. In times of unrest, regular updates go out by email which are usually helpful and informative to a point. Citizens are duly notified if the US government deems it advisable to vacate the country. Personally, I'd be long gone before it got to that stage.

Hope it never comes to having to execute any of these steps, but as the poster suggested--certainly doesn't hurt to think and plan while not under the duress of a sudden emergency.

Edited February 25, 2014 by Fookhaht

[coma]

Thais haven't got the bottle for a civil war. Too much like hard work.

I disagree with you somewhat. I think they have, but not for any protracted period of time.

[TVGerry]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I appreciate Robby's post. Those who think and plan for any eventuality are the least likely to be unfortunate victims of civil unrest.

I was caught at the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war in 1973 in the Middle East, and since then have always adhered to the following precautions, also taken from the advice of other expats and journalists who have lived/worked in other unsettled regions of the world:

1. Keep passport & accompanying documents up-to-date with no overstay/visa/tax problems. Consider keeping an open-ended air ticket (where the departure/dates times can be changed) to anywhere out of the region, keeping in mind the precaution in #2.

2. Consider an overland exit point due to the fact that the country's main airports would likely be swamped with foreigners and Thais (with means) who would be taking the most obvious exit route. The airport could be overwhelmed for days or weeks.

3. Keep enough cash on hand (read that: "out of the bank") to safely get out of the country.

4. Have at least one or two transportation back-up plans to your exit destination.

5. Keep a "bug-out bag" -- a small backpack ready at all times (documents, water, essential medicines, cash, etc.)

6. Confide your plans to as few as possible; preferably only to those you trust who might be able to assist you with #2 or #4.

Hope it never comes to having to execute any of these steps, but as the poster suggested--certainly doesn't hurt to think and plan while not under the duress of a sudden emergency.

Very good tips, thanks.

So sad that it has come to this though. A few years ago, if you posted these tips, you would have been called nuts because it was just unthinkable that sh%t would get so bad. Now unfortunately, better safe then sorry. Hell I even have 20 packs of MREs and tons of mineral water stocked up just in case.

[PatOngo]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect the Shinawatra trough" senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

[KimoMax]

The Reds hope the Military stays in their barracks and the PCRD knows the Military will come out when the Malitia absolutely has no choice.

Unfortunately the wrighting is on the wall.

The Military stands for the Thai people's lives and welfare. Albeit not their prosperity.

They will defend the Kingdom from Civil War and Destrction to the best of their ability.

They do have the weapons, soldiers, and mandate of their mission to defend the Thailand. As well as the underlying support and loyalty of the majority Thai people to protect Thailand.

Even if it means defending Thailand from Violence and Civil War by opposing groups within the Country.

Of course within all of this are those within the Militia that will have Greed for Power and Money.

The violent attacks and threats from the opposing groups only reduces the current caretaker government's ability to remain in office without being ousted by a coup.

You have your thinking way wrong.

The reds are acting on Thaksins orders and he desperately wants a coup to be able to say his proxy Govt has been overthrown.

Then he will bring the reds out to oppose the army but not directly, they will go for soft targets and the army will have no chance, look what is happening in the south and translate that to the whole country.

Yes I have posted that before but there are those who just cant get it through their heads.

PTP and the Shins do not want a coup and lose their power. They are fighting like hell to maintain it.

The Shins will have no chance of regaining power if overthrown. The members of the PTP yes, but the Shins, No.

Once the Coup is done, everything about future governments starts from scratch again. It is similar to PDRC's plan to establish a comittee, except the Military will decide who makes the decisons and also re-writes the constitution etc. That certainly will not be those opposed to the military's mandate.

If there is a coup, they will say they were undemocraticaly overthrown.

Sure there is a possability of internal conflict. No one can say for sure.

[Sunderland]

Thais haven't got the bottle for a civil war. Too much like hard work.

Agree. The scenario here is vastly different from somewhere like Syria or Ukraine.

[Scamper]

Civil war is indeed a possibility. It is hard to imagine how it could not be given the myriad of circumstances at play. The only sane forces that will save this mess have been the ones at play long before this crisis ever began - the constitution, the courts, and the independent agencies. All three have taken a beating recently, thanks to Thida and company. But all survive unscathed as they were designed to. Only one party wants to do away with or reduce the power of these checks and balances : UDD/Pheu Thai, and it was the fevered subject of the UDD rally on Sunday. It marked the most nakedly this has moved towards an aggressive stance towards the judiciary. The Yingluck administration on the other hand has now escalated their attacks against the EC, the NACC, and just today, the Constitutional Court themselves. The Yingluck administration - like the UDD - know that these institutions are in " their " way, and so are now set to impede them in any way they can. The NACC is but a step away from indicting Yingluck, and that would lead to her removal from office. So it is not surprising that she is boycotting her key appearance at the NACC on Thursday, and it is not surprising that the UDD has called for the surrounding of the NACC's offices the same day. Neither the UDD nor the Yingluck administration want the NACC investigation into the rice scandal to go ahead. Because neither the CMPO nor the police will be inclined to prevent this proposed action from the UDD, the army is the only force that can impose order and respect for the processes of the law.

But at the end of the day - whatever happens - the constitution, the courts, and the independent agencies will point the path forward. After March 4, Yingluck will be constitutionally required to step down as the administration will be stripped of its caretaker status in lieu of a parliamentary quorum. Yingluck talks frequently about the constitution. The question is - on March 5 - will she respect it ?

[Timwin]

Not civil war, more like hit-and-run strikes Iraq and Afghanistan style. Even Americans with much more effective army could do little to prevent the IED bombings.

Bangkok would be the main battleground obviously. Most of the northeast of Bangkok btw voted for the Reds in last elections. Thai army is clearly taking the neutral stance.

[cdmtdm]

it would be a very swift red victory ...... sad but true !!! get your self in the nth and it will be much safer imo ...

[Boxclever]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

yes of course to 'protect democracy' you think the fascist Suthep will 'protect democracy'? where is Suthep's plans? reforms? who makes up the fascist Council? we don't know anything about his 'alternative to democracy'

only we must trust Suthep

let the people decide at an ELECTION - that's the democratic way

PS I'm against violence and will condemn it on EITHER side as should we all - good piece from AFP

I trust the 'fascist' over the red shirts false 'democracy' anytime. Reforms first then elections. Until the problems are fixed, democracy will continue to fail this country. You guys talk a lot of about elections and democracy and yet we've seen years of unrest and kleptocracy. The violence that's happening right now is what Shinawatra 'democracy' has brought us. You guys love red democracy so much. Wait till they come to Bangkok again and when there are ashes of burnt buildings again like 2010, you'll see what red democracy is about.

Yes but what are the reforms that Suthep has in mind?

If they are genuine reforms designed to cut down corruption and government monopoly then I will support it.

But Suthep refuses to divulge the reforms until after he has taken power!

That is a very dangerous thing to accept and the reason why I cannot support such a movement.

I fear one of the reforms is cutting the voting rights of poor and less educated citizens.

C'mon Suthep, what reforms do you have in mind...

Edited February 25, 2014 by Boxclever

[seminomadic]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I appreciate Robby's post. Those who think and plan for any eventuality are the least likely to be unfortunate victims of civil unrest.

I was caught at the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war in 1973 in the Middle East, and since then have always adhered to the following precautions, also taken from the advice of other expats and journalists who have lived/worked in other unsettled regions of the world:

1. Keep passport & accompanying documents up-to-date with no overstay/visa/tax problems. Consider keeping an open-ended air ticket (where the departure/dates times can be changed) to anywhere out of the region, keeping in mind the precaution in #2.

2. Consider an overland exit point due to the fact that the country's main airports would likely be swamped with foreigners and Thais (with means) who would be taking the most obvious exit route. The airport could be overwhelmed for days or weeks.

3. Keep enough cash on hand (read that: "out of the bank") to safely get out of the country.

4. Have at least one or two transportation back-up plans to your exit destination.

5. Keep a "bug-out bag" -- a small backpack ready at all times (documents, water, essential medicines, cash, etc.). If you have a family, inform family members of a rendezvous point away from heavily populated areas.

6. Confide your plans to as few as possible; preferably only to those you trust who might be able to assist you with #2 or #4.

7. Be sure to be on your embassy's notification list, if it exists. The US Embassy maintains a list of those US citizens who voluntarily register their presence in the foreign country. In times of unrest, regular updates go out by email which are usually helpful and informative to a point. Citizens are duly notified if the US government deems it advisable to vacate the country. Personally, I'd be long gone before it got to that stage.

Hope it never comes to having to execute any of these steps, but as the poster suggested--certainly doesn't hurt to think and plan while not under the duress of a sudden emergency.

Re-posted for emphasis with gratitude.

[77Dan]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

You seem to have overlooked (or in your own words 'conveniently ignored') these parts of the article:

A rally spokesman said that gunmen had attacked the camp...a four-year-old boy and his sister, 6, were killed Sunday by a grenade at a protest site ... a day after a five-year-old girl was shot dead at a rally in eastern Thailand.

Or don't you bother reading the whole article? Perhaps too busy watching BlueSky TV?

[steven100]

All this talk ...talk ..talk but no action. The ARMY needs to intervene now .. stop the innocent deaths .

Sent from my TR736 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[nong38]

so why is no one doing anything to prevent or deter the people who throw grenades and shoot at innocent people?

It would be interesting to see what was in the job description for a Policeman here in Thailand. I wonder if upholding the law is top of the agenda?

[ShannonT]

All this talk ...talk ..talk but no action. The ARMY needs to intervene now .. stop the innocent deaths .

Sent from my TR736 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Intervene as in removing Suthep from the streets, yes.

Intervene as in a military coup, forget it. It will just cause even more problems and social division. Very few countries in the world are still ruled by military dictatorship and Thailand would be wrong to take a step back from Democracy to military rule.

General Prayuth Chan-Ocha has said several times that he is a solider, not a politician.

[DirtFarmer]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

yes of course to 'protect democracy' you think the fascist Suthep will 'protect democracy'? where is Suthep's plans? reforms? who makes up the fascist Council? we don't know anything about his 'alternative to democracy'

only we must trust Suthep

let the people decide at an ELECTION - that's the democratic way

PS I'm against violence and will condemn it on EITHER side as should we all - good piece from AFP

I trust the 'fascist' over the red shirts false 'democracy' anytime. Reforms first then elections. Until the problems are fixed, democracy will continue to fail this country. You guys talk a lot of about elections and democracy and yet we've seen years of unrest and kleptocracy. The violence that's happening right now is what Shinawatra 'democracy' has brought us. You guys love red democracy so much. Wait till they come to Bangkok again and when there are ashes of burnt buildings again like 2010, you'll see what red democracy is about.

Reforms here will take decades...not some amorphous slogan to jam into everybody's head... as if it is going to happen in a year or two...yes the street wars may go away... but before you know it same same..not different... gonna be along haul I fear ....there won't be elections for years and years if one follows that logic TV Gerry...

[Timwin]

All this talk ...talk ..talk but no action. The ARMY needs to intervene now .. stop the innocent deaths .

Sent from my TR736 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Yeah, Thai army has a such stellar record with innocent deaths:

This is from 1992: "The violence resulted in 52 officially acknowledged deaths, hundreds of injuries, and many disappearances. Over 3,500 people were arrested; hundreds of them were women and children. Many arrested claimed to have been tortured; some were beaten, left to sit in sweltering sunlight, soaked in gasoline and threatened with immolation, and left to go hungry"

Stiil you fools think army is going to PREVENT innocent deaths?!

[TVGerry]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

You seem to have overlooked (or in your own words 'conveniently ignored') these parts of the article:

A rally spokesman said that gunmen had attacked the camp...a four-year-old boy and his sister, 6, were killed Sunday by a grenade at a protest site ... a day after a five-year-old girl was shot dead at a rally in eastern Thailand.

Or don't you bother reading the whole article? Perhaps too busy watching BlueSky TV?

I did read it and I didn't ignore it.

They mentioned the last two attacks while conveniently ignoring that the other instances of violence were mostly committed against the protestors. When you write like that, to a person who doesn't know what's really happening, it makes it sound like the protestors are as much the guilty party when that's not true. They're the ones getting shot at and grenades thrown at on a daily basis.

[uptheos]

Whose side will the thousands of special forces be on?

[nong38]

If it looked like a civil war was on the cards then the Army would have to step in and bang some heads together. It might well come to that now that the Reds are getting rather bold again and neither side seems keen on backing down and talking to each other sadly. There is little we can do apart from watch and hope that a solution is found to avert a full blown conflict.

I guess its too much to ask that the people involves might try and put the country first.

[winstonc]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

Both parties are violent, but we are facing the possibility of a civil war that started the first day Suthep started his rallies.

He's the only one responsible for that and should be stopped before it's too late.

try and get one thing right the protesters got violent to protect themselves is that not acceptable ... and there still being bombed..

[Fookhaht]

All the talk about the "neutral" army putting things straight brings up one interesting point: It is significant to note that the vast number of rank-and-file in the army--the lowly foot soldiers--are made up of recruits and conscripts from the 20-million population of NE Thailand--Isaan--the stronghold of the UDD. I wonder how neutral the "privates" would remain in a civil-war scenario, or even another coup? Would their obedience to military authority outweigh their upbringing and home ties? We might get a ringside seat to a breakdown of military authority if all Purgatory broke loose.

[MacWalen]

I really hope civil war will not happen. I love this country and I believe there is enough good will out there to get out of this political crisis.

[philw]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I appreciate Robby's post. Those who think and plan for any eventuality are the least likely to be unfortunate victims of civil unrest.

I was caught at the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war in 1973 in the Middle East, and since then have always adhered to the following precautions, also taken from the advice of other expats and journalists who have lived/worked in other unsettled regions of the world:

1. Keep passport & accompanying documents up-to-date with no overstay/visa/tax problems. Consider keeping an open-ended air ticket (where the departure/dates times can be changed) to anywhere out of the region, keeping in mind the precaution in #2.

2. Consider an overland exit point due to the fact that the country's main airports would likely be swamped with foreigners and Thais (with means) who would be taking the most obvious exit route. The airport could be overwhelmed for days or weeks.

3. Keep enough cash on hand (read that: "out of the bank") to safely get out of the country.

4. Have at least one or two transportation back-up plans to your exit destination.

5. Keep a "bug-out bag" -- a small backpack ready at all times (documents, water, essential medicines, cash, etc.)

6. Confide your plans to as few as possible; preferably only to those you trust who might be able to assist you with #2 or #4.

Hope it never comes to having to execute any of these steps, but as the poster suggested--certainly doesn't hurt to think and plan while not under the duress of a sudden emergency.

Very good tips, thanks.

So sad that it has come to this though. A few years ago, if you posted these tips, you would have been called nuts because it was just unthinkable that sh%t would get so bad. Now unfortunately, better safe then sorry. Hell I even have 20 packs of MREs and tons of mineral water stocked up just in case.

Says it all................

The rest of us are getting on with life and running our businesses etc.

Really, 20 packs ??

Well known TV posters who seem to want and support divisive confrontation in Thailand have got their MRE's and exit strategies planned......................

The rest of us will hope that civil war never happens and continue to live here with our Thai friends, families and businesses.

Edited February 25, 2014 by philw

[Robby nz]

The reds are acting on Thaksins orders and he desperately wants a coup to be able to say his proxy Govt has been overthrown.

So Thaskin actually wants his government overthrown

That`ll do his business interests and ego the world of good

I`ve heard it all now!

Yes.

He wants it overthrown by the military because he knows very well it and he is on the last legs.

Once the army takes over he can say his democratically elected Govt was overthrown by a coup and get international sympathy which would do his ego a lot of good.

He would be the injured party and as far as business interest interests go it would give him an opportunity to buy shares at a fire sale price when other investors quit the market.

[kurtgruen]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Hmmm...I will get up, think about eating, talk about eating, eat breakfast, then think and talk about eating again...eat lunch, gossip about the neighbors, think about eating again, talk about eating, eat dinner, watch a stupid Thai soap for two hours, go to bed and fall asleep, dreaming about food. When people start talking about politics, reform, democracy, corruption, I will tell them, that I am getting tired of the same old s&%t and go back to watching my educational soap about the poor girl, who falls in love with the handsome rich guy.

Isn't that what most people do, during a civil war?

[Sunderland]

it would be a very swift red victory ...... sad but true !!! get your self in the nth and it will be much safer imo ...

How are they going to win? With what kind of strategy? They are on the ropes at the moment and punch drunk.

[Showbags]

It will be near impossible for the police to remove the protesters. The below picture is why.....

That picture is foreign propaganda. Everyone knows there are no obese Thais.

Must be very wealthy..

[ramrod711]

Department of Special Investigation chief Tarit Pengdith urged "restraint and patience" on both sides of the political divide, during a televised address by officials handling the security response to the crisis.

Well, i don't know about you, but i feel warm and fuzzy all over. Tarit, that paragon of impartiality, urge restraint and patience, he certainly has, not a single attacker/ child killer arrested yet. Not likely to be one either.