Thaksin's political predictions from Beijing

[siampolee]

Thaksin concluded by saying that the most important duty of the caretaker administration was to keep the government afloat until a new election or until a government was formed from the February 2 election.

Translation.

Thaksin concluded by saying that the most important duty of the caretaker administration was to keep the government afloat and to ensure that his current income expectations were to be filled until a new election or until a government was formed from the February 2 election.

Edited March 14, 2014 by siampolee

[gabruce]

Note to the readers: I am NOT a red or yellow partisan. I just a 10 years neutral observer of the political circus and failed Democracy in Thailand

I believe the Democrats - if led by Abhisit - have a unique chance to WIN (yes i say win) the coming elections. It would an absolute first time since the Thaksin era. Why do i think so? Both Red and Yellow sides are divided. Suthep and its continuous gesticulations and failed promises is far from attracting all the yellow supporters. Cleverly Abhisit stays on the backstage, probably to prepare a timely return. On the Red side, Thaksin has lost a LOT of ground, probably much more than its predictions. Let's be fair here, Thaksin on his early days did a lot for rural areas (roads, hospitals, electricity etc...). Despite all scandals, the failed and corrupted rice scheme, he still keeps a broad electorate. But, most importantly, I believe that many of the old "Thaksin" supporters would be ready to vote for Abhisit (I say Abhisit, not the Democrats) if he gives some positive signals to the farmers and rural areas. For that, Abhisit would need to take some risks by stepping aside the rut of the traditional feudal society. He has the Education and some experience. I do not mean that the whole (Feudal) system will change tomorrow, but - like never before - the electoral map is ready to move in Thailand. To capture this electorate, Abhisit must not only lend "allegiance" to the traditional Democrats allies, but also to the rural electorate who started to understand that Thaksin and Co is not anymore a solution for the Country. Will Abhisit dare shaking the "System"?

Excellent comment. FYI, I am more biased towards the Democrats than the Pheu Thai. I think the Pheu Thai have been disastrous for Thailand, mostly because of corruption, incompetence, and a disregard for law. I do think that Thaksin's comments were remarkably thoughtful. I hope that there is a new election soon (Feb 2 discarded) and that the Democrats give some real thought to what is best for the country and actually have a platform that people can understand. Reform is probably the strongest cornerstone to work with - I think they should promise a reform process driven outside of parliament with contributions from both political and non-political entities, followed by a referendum in a fixed time period (ie 6 months to 2 years max). They also should address infrastructure, less from having all the answers, and more by setting up a framework to address the future. I am sure they won't repeat the mistake the Pheu Thai made with their 2.2 trillion infrastructure bill (I hope they wouldn't). They would also be well advised to have some strategy for rice farmers, especially the poorest and mid-level income farmers, a strategy that focusses on making that industry stronger rather than weaker.

Can the democrats change their focus, have a decent platform and plan for the future, and communicate it clearly. Probably not, though one can hope.

Of course they don't get my vote since I can't vote. Just hope for the best for the country.

[Dogmatix]

Did he predict that his sister would be moving in with him in Dubai?

He may have ruined her life but he still publicly castigates her for not accepting all the dirt bag advisors he wanted to foist on her. Very funny.

[Dogmatix]

Note to the readers: I am NOT a red or yellow partisan. I just a 10 years neutral observer of the political circus and failed Democracy in Thailand

I believe the Democrats - if led by Abhisit - have a unique chance to WIN (yes i say win) the coming elections. It would an absolute first time since the Thaksin era. Why do i think so? Both Red and Yellow sides are divided. Suthep and its continuous gesticulations and failed promises is far from attracting all the yellow supporters. Cleverly Abhisit stays on the backstage, probably to prepare a timely return. On the Red side, Thaksin has lost a LOT of ground, probably much more than its predictions. Let's be fair here, Thaksin on his early days did a lot for rural areas (roads, hospitals, electricity etc...). Despite all scandals, the failed and corrupted rice scheme, he still keeps a broad electorate. But, most importantly, I believe that many of the old "Thaksin" supporters would be ready to vote for Abhisit (I say Abhisit, not the Democrats) if he gives some positive signals to the farmers and rural areas. For that, Abhisit would need to take some risks by stepping aside the rut of the traditional feudal society. He has the Education and some experience. I do not mean that the whole (Feudal) system will change tomorrow, but - like never before - the electoral map is ready to move in Thailand. To capture this electorate, Abhisit must not only lend "allegiance" to the traditional Democrats allies, but also to the rural electorate who started to understand that Thaksin and Co is not anymore a solution for the Country. Will Abhisit dare shaking the "System"?

Excellent comment. FYI, I am more biased towards the Democrats than the Pheu Thai. I think the Pheu Thai have been disastrous for Thailand, mostly because of corruption, incompetence, and a disregard for law. I do think that Thaksin's comments were remarkably thoughtful. I hope that there is a new election soon (Feb 2 discarded) and that the Democrats give some real thought to what is best for the country and actually have a platform that people can understand. Reform is probably the strongest cornerstone to work with - I think they should promise a reform process driven outside of parliament with contributions from both political and non-political entities, followed by a referendum in a fixed time period (ie 6 months to 2 years max). They also should address infrastructure, less from having all the answers, and more by setting up a framework to address the future. I am sure they won't repeat the mistake the Pheu Thai made with their 2.2 trillion infrastructure bill (I hope they wouldn't). They would also be well advised to have some strategy for rice farmers, especially the poorest and mid-level income farmers, a strategy that focusses on making that industry stronger rather than weaker.

Can the democrats change their focus, have a decent platform and plan for the future, and communicate it clearly. Probably not, though one can hope.

Of course they don't get my vote since I can't vote. Just hope for the best for the country.

The Dems should be able to make headway in an election but it would still be hard for them to make significant inroads in the North and Northeast. They lack party infrastructure and candidates in those areas and the militant red shirts are likely to murder anyone who tries to build out the infrastructure. PT relies on controlling the village headman system through the Interior Ministry. On the night of the howling dogs it is these government officials who hand out the vote buying money and tell villagers which candidate to vote for and they fear, often with good reason, that their ballots will not be secret. Sometimes they are even forced to write they names on the back of the ballots. The reds are certainly loosing support but only small numbers of armed enforcers are needed combined with the control of the village headmen.

The Dems also need to reform themselves to make themselves electable. So far the leadership has strenuously resisted all attempts at internal reform.

Edited March 14, 2014 by Dogmatix

[rubl]

"On the other hand, Thaksin said, there were people who wanted to become popular and please him but are making the wrong moves in public"

Interesting statement for a golf caddy

[siampolee]

Perhaps Thaksin Shinwatra you would do well to follow the sage advice offered in this particular video clip.

The truth may hurt but your pain would be short lived compared to the past and ongoing pain being currently suffered by Thailand and the Thai people due to the consequences of your and your family's actions

http://asiasociety.org/video/message-thaksin?page=29

Edited March 14, 2014 by siampolee

[toonsai]

The Dems should be able to make headway in an election but it would still be hard for them to make significant inroads in the North and Northeast. They lack party infrastructure and candidates in those areas and the militant red shirts are likely to murder anyone who tries to build out the infrastructure. PT relies on controlling the village headman system through the Interior Ministry. On the night of the howling dogs it is these government officials who hand out the vote buying money and tell villagers which candidate to vote for and they fear, often with good reason, that their ballots will not be secret. Sometimes they are even forced to write they names on the back of the ballots. The reds are certainly loosing support but only small numbers of armed enforcers are needed combined with the control of the village headmen.

The Dems also need to reform themselves to make themselves electable. So far the leadership has strenuously resisted all attempts at internal reform.

You probably got a very valid point... The feudal society will not change tomorrow. My statement maybe seen as "naive" but that's the only hope I can see for some real changes. Ultimately controling the villages heads is critical.

[GuestHouse]

I'd be more interested in hearing what Thaksin had to say to the Chinese Government Officials and Contractors who, up until this week have been rubbing their hands in eagerness to get their hands of a share of the Bht2 Trillion earmarked for 'Infrastructure' projects.

Rest assured, that is precisely why Thaksin is in China.

[bigbamboo]

Thaksin is in Beijing because he knows the CCP is boxed in by Washington's opposition to either a coup d'état military mutiny or a judicial coup, because Beijing knows Thai public opinion is strongly against either, that Beijing knows either would be a short term "solution" that would make matters worse, and because Beijing favors the DP participating in the political process in genuine ways. Beijing takes this stance because the CCP knows it cannot be seen by either the Thai people or Asean governments and populations as supporting a "short term" approach, i.e. a coup of any kind.

The Global Times, which is not only a state owned and operated organ of the CCP, is moreover the most strident and militant voice that comes out of Beijing because it is strongly influenced by the CCP military. Last month however the Global Times issued the following entirely pragmatic statement in respect of Thailand:

Thailand is a core country of ASEAN. The stability of Thailand affects that of the whole of Southeast Asia. The current period is a time of economic integration of ASEAN. The political turbulence in Thailand will likely drag out this process, thus having a negative impact on the economic development of the entire region.

Thailand also plays a coordinating role in China's relations with ASEAN. China is at an important stage of upgrading the free trade zone with ASEAN. Therefore, maintaining stability in Thailand is vital to China's interests.

Most of China's neighboring countries are in a phase of political transition. How to strengthen ties with these countries when their democratic process is experiencing fluctuations is the main test for China's relations with them in the future. China, as a major regional power, should encourage Thailand's opposing sides to achieve reconciliation, promote institutional improvement and establish foundations for good governance through the will of the Thai people and political means.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/840949.shtml#.UyJJwp2S1dg

Thaksin has Washington in one back pocket and Beijing in the other.

Now that IS delusional.

[Scamper]

What happened to any of Thaksin's previous predictions ? All the times since 2008 when he said he would return to Thailand ? Imminently, I think were the words. What happened when he predicted his return to Thailand six months after the 2011 election ? How did that go ? Complications at the airport ? What happened to his amnesty bill ? ( Sorry. Just had to ask ). Was that a Thaksin initiative that bit the dust ? Really ? Why ? Not a full-proof idea ? Were his powers of prediction fuzzy then ? Why do people place so much weight on this man ? Yes, he's rich. But does that mean he can think ? These revelations of how Thaksin thinks do only one thing - they galvanize the reform movement. They breathe new life into it. Though, to be honest, there is one constant to everything that Thaksin utters. They all have to do with him.

[rametindallas]

Thaksin is in Beijing because he knows the CCP is boxed in by Washington's opposition to either a coup d'état military mutiny or a judicial coup, because Beijing knows Thai public opinion is strongly against either, that Beijing knows either would be a short term "solution" that would make matters worse, and because Beijing favors the DP participating in the political process in genuine ways. Beijing takes this stance because the CCP knows it cannot be seen by either the Thai people or Asean governments and populations as supporting a "short term" approach, i.e. a coup of any kind.

The Global Times, which is not only a state owned and operated organ of the CCP, is moreover the most strident and militant voice that comes out of Beijing because it is strongly influenced by the CCP military. Last month however the Global Times issued the following entirely pragmatic statement in respect of Thailand:

Thailand is a core country of ASEAN. The stability of Thailand affects that of the whole of Southeast Asia. The current period is a time of economic integration of ASEAN. The political turbulence in Thailand will likely drag out this process, thus having a negative impact on the economic development of the entire region.

Thailand also plays a coordinating role in China's relations with ASEAN. China is at an important stage of upgrading the free trade zone with ASEAN. Therefore, maintaining stability in Thailand is vital to China's interests.

Most of China's neighboring countries are in a phase of political transition. How to strengthen ties with these countries when their democratic process is experiencing fluctuations is the main test for China's relations with them in the future. China, as a major regional power, should encourage Thailand's opposing sides to achieve reconciliation, promote institutional improvement and establish foundations for good governance through the will of the Thai people and political means.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/840949.shtml#.UyJJwp2S1dg

Thaksin has Washington in one back pocket and Beijing in the other.

note that the report says: establish foundations for good governance

I read that as saying Thailand does not even have the foundations for good governance; they did't call for 'improved' governance. I don't think the Chinese believe that Thaksin is the path to establishing good governance in Thailand. Rather, he is the reason they say good governance needs to be established.

[rametindallas]

Note to the readers: I am NOT a red or yellow partisan. I just a 10 years neutral observer of the political circus and failed Democracy in Thailand

I believe the Democrats - if led by Abhisit - have a unique chance to WIN (yes i say win) the coming elections. It would an absolute first time since the Thaksin era. Why do i think so? Both Red and Yellow sides are divided. Suthep and its continuous gesticulations and failed promises is far from attracting all the yellow supporters. Cleverly Abhisit stays on the backstage, probably to prepare a timely return. On the Red side, Thaksin has lost a LOT of ground, probably much more than its predictions. Let's be fair here, Thaksin on his early days did a lot for rural areas (roads, hospitals, electricity etc...). Despite all scandals, the failed and corrupted rice scheme, he still keeps a broad electorate. But, most importantly, I believe that many of the old "Thaksin" supporters would be ready to vote for Abhisit (I say Abhisit, not the Democrats) if he gives some positive signals to the farmers and rural areas. For that, Abhisit would need to take some risks by stepping aside the rut of the traditional feudal society. He has the Education and some experience. I do not mean that the whole (Feudal) system will change tomorrow, but - like never before - the electoral map is ready to move in Thailand. To capture this electorate, Abhisit must not only lend "allegiance" to the traditional Democrats allies, but also to the rural electorate who started to understand that Thaksin and Co is not anymore a solution for the Country. Will Abhisit dare shaking the "System"?

dream on... his only chance is (as you hint at) is to give up the old elite ammart but that would take a few years not by the next election and he doesn't have the balls to do it

PTP win with less seats

Clarify please

who is this mysterious

"old elite ammart"

You are as clueless as the average red shirt.t repeat what some one who is paid to spread propaganda and misinformation told you. Love these conspiracy thinkers allows for all kinds of nonsense.

if you care to know you can find out - if you truly do not know then I observe you are following Buddha's advice about 'Ignorance is Bliss'

That's code for, 'read red propaganda and learn that Abhisit is Hitler, etc.'

[rametindallas]

Thaksin said

I should be in prison for life, for grand larceny, nepotistic mis-spending of the state fund, and for ordering the extrajudicial mass-killings of innocent citizens.

But I'm not. Go figure.

Yes a lot of innocent people died in his war agenised drugs, but there was also a sudden drug abuse decline, wasn’t there? Put yourself in his shoes, would you sacrifice 100 innocents to save millions? or would you just let things run and destroy the Kingdom?

would you sacrifice 100 innocents to save millions? or would you just let things run and destroy the Kingdom?

It wasn't Thaksin's choice to make. He doesn't have the authority of a Kim Jong Il. Thailand is, once again, awash in drugs. Is your solution to order a few thousand extra-judicial killings again? You are a sick and perverted excuse for a human to defend that part of Thaksin's nature.

[Thaddeus]

I'd be more interested in hearing what Thaksin had to say to the Chinese Government Officials and Contractors who, up until this week have been rubbing their hands in eagerness to get their hands of a share of the Bht2 Trillion earmarked for 'Infrastructure' projects.

Rest assured, that is precisely why Thaksin is in China.

Would be interesting to find out if he is being made to stand on plastic sheeting.

[binjalin]

Note to the readers: I am NOT a red or yellow partisan. I just a 10 years neutral observer of the political circus and failed Democracy in Thailand

I believe the Democrats - if led by Abhisit - have a unique chance to WIN (yes i say win) the coming elections. It would an absolute first time since the Thaksin era. Why do i think so? Both Red and Yellow sides are divided. Suthep and its continuous gesticulations and failed promises is far from attracting all the yellow supporters. Cleverly Abhisit stays on the backstage, probably to prepare a timely return. On the Red side, Thaksin has lost a LOT of ground, probably much more than its predictions. Let's be fair here, Thaksin on his early days did a lot for rural areas (roads, hospitals, electricity etc...). Despite all scandals, the failed and corrupted rice scheme, he still keeps a broad electorate. But, most importantly, I believe that many of the old "Thaksin" supporters would be ready to vote for Abhisit (I say Abhisit, not the Democrats) if he gives some positive signals to the farmers and rural areas. For that, Abhisit would need to take some risks by stepping aside the rut of the traditional feudal society. He has the Education and some experience. I do not mean that the whole (Feudal) system will change tomorrow, but - like never before - the electoral map is ready to move in Thailand. To capture this electorate, Abhisit must not only lend "allegiance" to the traditional Democrats allies, but also to the rural electorate who started to understand that Thaksin and Co is not anymore a solution for the Country. Will Abhisit dare shaking the "System"?

dream on... his only chance is (as you hint at) is to give up the old elite ammart but that would take a few years not by the next election and he doesn't have the balls to do it

PTP win with less seats

Clarify please

who is this mysterious

"old elite ammart"

You are as clueless as the average red shirt.t repeat what some one who is paid to spread propaganda and misinformation told you. Love these conspiracy thinkers allows for all kinds of nonsense.

We all know who are the "old elite", no need to elaborate about that (and to some extend, we cannot). Without giving specific names, Thailand is ruled by a few powerful families. Both camps have their "hierarchy". That's why - i believe - we all agree to describe Thailand as a FEUDAL system.

exactly - feudal is the correct word and some things we cannot discuss here as the very strong and powerful censorship laws in Thailand forbid it

[Bkungbank]

Dubai man not going back to Arab coutries after clip came out ,he stay in China as confrim last month PT members visited him in Beijing, he from London ,to Russia then to China and Hong Kong. If I am a millionaire I would like to be a free man not a fugitive .

[wolfmanjack]

No Binj, when you throw in a comment about some mysterious force and someone asks you to clarify it, you cannot place the onus on the questioner to determine who you are referring to.

As you and your ilk consistently demand, proof please, or say nothing in the first place...!!

http://siampolitics.wordpress.com/2010/03/08/war-on-ammart-whats-it-all-about/

It looks to me like the red definition of ammart is anyone with any amount of power no matter how small that is against thaksin.

[MunterHunter]

Note to the readers: I am NOT a red or yellow partisan. I just a 10 years neutral observer of the political circus and failed Democracy in Thailand

I believe the Democrats - if led by Abhisit - have a unique chance to WIN (yes i say win) the coming elections. It would an absolute first time since the Thaksin era. Why do i think so? Both Red and Yellow sides are divided. Suthep and its continuous gesticulations and failed promises is far from attracting all the yellow supporters. Cleverly Abhisit stays on the backstage, probably to prepare a timely return. On the Red side, Thaksin has lost a LOT of ground, probably much more than its predictions. Let's be fair here, Thaksin on his early days did a lot for rural areas (roads, hospitals, electricity etc...). Despite all scandals, the failed and corrupted rice scheme, he still keeps a broad electorate. But, most importantly, I believe that many of the old "Thaksin" supporters would be ready to vote for Abhisit (I say Abhisit, not the Democrats) if he gives some positive signals to the farmers and rural areas. For that, Abhisit would need to take some risks by stepping aside the rut of the traditional feudal society. He has the Education and some experience. I do not mean that the whole (Feudal) system will change tomorrow, but - like never before - the electoral map is ready to move in Thailand. To capture this electorate, Abhisit must not only lend "allegiance" to the traditional Democrats allies, but also to the rural electorate who started to understand that Thaksin and Co is not anymore a solution for the Country. Will Abhisit dare shaking the "System"?

Suthep was one of the most important organizers and fundraisers for the Democrat party. He still has a great deal of influence. IMO he wanted to be PM when he was still a party big wig. There are still multiple competing interest groups that form the Democrat party. I don't think Abhisit has much influence. The Democrat party is still infested by the same group who had their nose in the trough when the Democrats formed the government. They will not be willing to give up the spoils of a political victory. The end result is that Abhisit cannot make any significant changes or offer real change, no matter how much he wants to. What Thailand needs is a new political party, one that unites the honest people and one that offers a hope of real reform and one that is made up of candidates not tainted by corruption.

Not often i find myself in agreement (albeit partially) with G'kid.

I've highlighted the part of his post that i agree with.

[wolfmanjack]

Thaksin said

I should be in prison for life, for grand larceny, nepotistic mis-spending of the state fund, and for ordering the extrajudicial mass-killings of innocent citizens.

But I'm not. Go figure.

Yes a lot of innocent people died in his war agenised drugs, but there was also a sudden drug abuse decline, wasn’t there? Put yourself in his shoes, would you sacrifice 100 innocents to save millions? or would you just let things run and destroy the Kingdom?

you would have a point if the innocent killed were a small minority of the total but according to what I have read only around 500 of the 2500 - 2800 killed were involved in drugs.

Instead of thaksin giving the order to reduce the # of people in the list and a quota to the police he should have insisted on arrests and prosecutions like any civilized person would. What he did was turn the police into vigilantes that got out of control and he did nothing to get them back under control again.

[chrisrazz]

Note to the readers: I am NOT a red or yellow partisan. I just a 10 years neutral observer of the political circus and failed Democracy in Thailand

I believe the Democrats - if led by Abhisit - have a unique chance to WIN (yes i say win) the coming elections. It would an absolute first time since the Thaksin era. Why do i think so? Both Red and Yellow sides are divided. Suthep and its continuous gesticulations and failed promises is far from attracting all the yellow supporters. Cleverly Abhisit stays on the backstage, probably to prepare a timely return. On the Red side, Thaksin has lost a LOT of ground, probably much more than its predictions. Let's be fair here, Thaksin on his early days did a lot for rural areas (roads, hospitals, electricity etc...). Despite all scandals, the failed and corrupted rice scheme, he still keeps a broad electorate. But, most importantly, I believe that many of the old "Thaksin" supporters would be ready to vote for Abhisit (I say Abhisit, not the Democrats) if he gives some positive signals to the farmers and rural areas. For that, Abhisit would need to take some risks by stepping aside the rut of the traditional feudal society. He has the Education and some experience. I do not mean that the whole (Feudal) system will change tomorrow, but - like never before - the electoral map is ready to move in Thailand. To capture this electorate, Abhisit must not only lend "allegiance" to the traditional Democrats allies, but also to the rural electorate who started to understand that Thaksin and Co is not anymore a solution for the Country. Will Abhisit dare shaking the "System"?

Excellent comment. FYI, I am more biased towards the Democrats than the Pheu Thai. I think the Pheu Thai have been disastrous for Thailand, mostly because of corruption, incompetence, and a disregard for law. I do think that Thaksin's comments were remarkably thoughtful. I hope that there is a new election soon (Feb 2 discarded) and that the Democrats give some real thought to what is best for the country and actually have a platform that people can understand. Reform is probably the strongest cornerstone to work with - I think they should promise a reform process driven outside of parliament with contributions from both political and non-political entities, followed by a referendum in a fixed time period (ie 6 months to 2 years max). They also should address infrastructure, less from having all the answers, and more by setting up a framework to address the future. I am sure they won't repeat the mistake the Pheu Thai made with their 2.2 trillion infrastructure bill (I hope they wouldn't). They would also be well advised to have some strategy for rice farmers, especially the poorest and mid-level income farmers, a strategy that focusses on making that industry stronger rather than weaker.

Can the democrats change their focus, have a decent platform and plan for the future, and communicate it clearly. Probably not, though one can hope.

Of course they don't get my vote since I can't vote. Just hope for the best for the country.

The Dems should be able to make headway in an election but it would still be hard for them to make significant inroads in the North and Northeast. They lack party infrastructure and candidates in those areas and the militant red shirts are likely to murder anyone who tries to build out the infrastructure. PT relies on controlling the village headman system through the Interior Ministry. On the night of the howling dogs it is these government officials who hand out the vote buying money and tell villagers which candidate to vote for and they fear, often with good reason, that their ballots will not be secret. Sometimes they are even forced to write they names on the back of the ballots. The reds are certainly loosing support but only small numbers of armed enforcers are needed combined with the control of the village headmen.

The Dems also need to reform themselves to make themselves electable. So far the leadership has strenuously resisted all attempts at internal reform.

'PT relies on controlling the village headman system through the Interior Ministry. On the night of the howling dogs it is these government officials who hand out the vote buying money and tell villagers which candidate to vote for and they fear, often with good reason, that their ballots will not be secret. Sometimes they are even forced to write they names on the back of the ballots. The reds are certainly loosing support but only small numbers of armed enforcers are needed combined with the control of the village headmen.'

Got any evidence to back this claim?

At the election that saw PT win government, the Dems were the incumbent and therefore it was Dem Government officials from the Interior Ministry, was it?

As an Isaan resident for numerous elections (there seems an election every few months these days) 'vote buying' is widespread across all candidates and Pooyai Ban elections are hotly contested and do not encompass national politics as you suggest. Our local mayor was recently stood down due to local pressure. She was embroiled in an issue with the village temple where she felt the temple finances should have been under her control. The temple has at least half a dozen unfinished building projects that are overgrown with weeds and she had a point. The process to remove the mayor from office required multiple petitions and representations of the case against the behavior of the mayor. There were no threats or payoffs, there were no shutdowns or mob violence. The whole process was very civilized, dignified and ultimately legal. Nobody has ever visited our place with an order to vote for anyone, it is always a request for support, never an ultimatum.

I have also, on many occasions, been present at the polling stations and seen nothing untoward. Some local volunteers to help voters, local government officials to administer the routine, a couple of girl guides and maybe a policeman and a lot of happy villagers exercising their democratic rights and freedoms.

[Publicus]

Thaksin is in Beijing because he knows the CCP is boxed in by Washington's opposition to either a coup d'état military mutiny or a judicial coup, because Beijing knows Thai public opinion is strongly against either, that Beijing knows either would be a short term "solution" that would make matters worse, and because Beijing favors the DP participating in the political process in genuine ways. Beijing takes this stance because the CCP knows it cannot be seen by either the Thai people or Asean governments and populations as supporting a "short term" approach, i.e. a coup of any kind.

The Global Times, which is not only a state owned and operated organ of the CCP, is moreover the most strident and militant voice that comes out of Beijing because it is strongly influenced by the CCP military. Last month however the Global Times issued the following entirely pragmatic statement in respect of Thailand:

Thailand is a core country of ASEAN. The stability of Thailand affects that of the whole of Southeast Asia. The current period is a time of economic integration of ASEAN. The political turbulence in Thailand will likely drag out this process, thus having a negative impact on the economic development of the entire region.

Thailand also plays a coordinating role in China's relations with ASEAN. China is at an important stage of upgrading the free trade zone with ASEAN. Therefore, maintaining stability in Thailand is vital to China's interests.

Most of China's neighboring countries are in a phase of political transition. How to strengthen ties with these countries when their democratic process is experiencing fluctuations is the main test for China's relations with them in the future. China, as a major regional power, should encourage Thailand's opposing sides to achieve reconciliation, promote institutional improvement and establish foundations for good governance through the will of the Thai people and political means.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/840949.shtml#.UyJJwp2S1dg

Thaksin has Washington in one back pocket and Beijing in the other.

Now that IS delusional.

You'd need to speak to the Boyz in Beijing, not to me. I know you don't doubt Washington supports elections and democracy in Thailand - and yes, Washington would deal with whoever might be in the government as would any other foreign government, so save your breath restating the obvious. Beijing has to accommodate Asean democracy whether the Boyz like it or not - it's entirely pragmatic for the Boyz. That you don't like it and go to great strides to try to deny or debunk it is more than obvious. You don't have much credibility so try to be more attentive to what you post about these things in particular lest you lose any credibility you might sill have..

[Publicus]

What happened to any of Thaksin's previous predictions ? All the times since 2008 when he said he would return to Thailand ? Imminently, I think were the words. What happened when he predicted his return to Thailand six months after the 2011 election ? How did that go ? Complications at the airport ? What happened to his amnesty bill ? ( Sorry. Just had to ask ). Was that a Thaksin initiative that bit the dust ? Really ? Why ? Not a full-proof idea ? Were his powers of prediction fuzzy then ? Why do people place so much weight on this man ? Yes, he's rich. But does that mean he can think ? These revelations of how Thaksin thinks do only one thing - they galvanize the reform movement. They breathe new life into it. Though, to be honest, there is one constant to everything that Thaksin utters. They all have to do with him.

Your recent prominent prediction was that YS would be gone March 3rd or 4th or some such, which Thaksin knew he could ignore coming from anyone. Your horse still hasn't crossed the finish line but you're still hollering it on, the only one.

[Thai at Heart]

Note to the readers: I am NOT a red or yellow partisan. I just a 10 years neutral observer of the political circus and failed Democracy in Thailand

I believe the Democrats - if led by Abhisit - have a unique chance to WIN (yes i say win) the coming elections. It would an absolute first time since the Thaksin era. Why do i think so? Both Red and Yellow sides are divided. Suthep and its continuous gesticulations and failed promises is far from attracting all the yellow supporters. Cleverly Abhisit stays on the backstage, probably to prepare a timely return. On the Red side, Thaksin has lost a LOT of ground, probably much more than its predictions. Let's be fair here, Thaksin on his early days did a lot for rural areas (roads, hospitals, electricity etc...). Despite all scandals, the failed and corrupted rice scheme, he still keeps a broad electorate. But, most importantly, I believe that many of the old "Thaksin" supporters would be ready to vote for Abhisit (I say Abhisit, not the Democrats) if he gives some positive signals to the farmers and rural areas. For that, Abhisit would need to take some risks by stepping aside the rut of the traditional feudal society. He has the Education and some experience. I do not mean that the whole (Feudal) system will change tomorrow, but - like never before - the electoral map is ready to move in Thailand. To capture this electorate, Abhisit must not only lend "allegiance" to the traditional Democrats allies, but also to the rural electorate who started to understand that Thaksin and Co is not anymore a solution for the Country. Will Abhisit dare shaking the "System"?

dream on... his only chance is (as you hint at) is to give up the old elite ammart but that would take a few years not by the next election and he doesn't have the balls to do it

PTP win with less seats

Clarify please

who is this mysterious

"old elite ammart"

You are as clueless as the average red shirt.t repeat what some one who is paid to spread propaganda and misinformation told you. Love these conspiracy thinkers allows for all kinds of nonsense.

For pete's sake. Go off and google it. If you can't be bothered to try to work out how the players in this story interact, and your only answer is to say, prove it, when everyone knows only full well who they are as a group, then bog off.

Its like saying, Right Wing activists, or any other broad brush description of a group. If you think they aren't around, and who more or less makes up their members, then you sir, are the most naive man in this country. Call them what you lilke, but there are plenty of historical texts explaining their position in society, and it just fits perfectly to use a Thai word.

Any more? Plenty more where that came from

Edited March 14, 2014 by Thai at Heart

[Siripon]

Now we see Apisit and Suthep competing for popularity in the pqrty, Suthep with his nightly speech and Apisit in the morning on Blue Sky.

The Democrats, as usual, are in a dilemma.

If this election is finally completed they will be in the wilderness for a year or more, Parliament will be a farce with perhaps Chuwit the Leader of the Opposition!

If this election is cancelled and a new one called, what will Suthep do? If he still insists on reform before election, the Democrats will be hopelessly split.

His influence has always been there but never so prominent as now. If he insists on boycotting the next election many will follow.

In my view the Democrats have to remind him reform will take time, the Thai economy can't afford a caretaker government for ever, Pheua Thai have never been so weak, a reformed party under Dr Surin or Supachai, Jurin or Korn with a well thought out and marketed agenda is their best hope. Emphasizing team work, democracy and participation, all elements missing in the Shinawat dominated Pheua Thai.

Regarding corruption, in my village in the recent village head election, both candidates paid every villager 1000 baht and if voters came back from Bangkok they received another 2000 baht for travelling expenses.

[Thai at Heart]

Now we see Apisit and Suthep competing for popularity in the pqrty, Suthep with his nightly speech and Apisit in the morning on Blue Sky.

The Democrats, as usual, are in a dilemma.

If this election is finally completed they will be in the wilderness for a year or more, Parliament will be a farce with perhaps Chuwit the Leader of the Opposition!

If this election is cancelled and a new one called, what will Suthep do? If he still insists on reform before election, the Democrats will be hopelessly split.

His influence has always been there but never so prominent as now. If he insists on boycotting the next election many will follow.

In my view the Democrats have to remind him reform will take time, the Thai economy can't afford a caretaker government for ever, Pheua Thai have never been so weak, a reformed party under Dr Surin or Supachai, Jurin or Korn with a well thought out and marketed agenda is their best hope. Emphasizing team work, democracy and participation, all elements missing in the Shinawat dominated Pheua Thai.

Regarding corruption, in my village in the recent village head election, both candidates paid every villager 1000 baht and if voters came back from Bangkok they received another 2000 baht for travelling expenses.

Their problem is that bascially, they are unprincipled. They don't have an inbuilt trust of the system and the people. They prefer to complain and boycott than embrace the day and get elected.

[cosmont]

He did not talk about Thai population benefits to have a government lead by his family, Is that something he has been interest one day in his political life ? Just wondering

[Bangmod]

Why can this man not just shut his mouth, but he acts like Chalerm, he might be off the wagon or on ear drops.

Still not understand why newspapers even care and wright about this dictator, who should go in the books with Hitler, Pinochet, Idi Amin, Putin, J.W. Bush, Marcos, Mugabe and Robert Amsterdam, all delusional maniacs

[unanimosity]

He speaks. Thailand will become the China model of communism.

Are you kidding? Have you watched these guys march?

[unanimosity]

Why can this man not just shut his mouth, but he acts like Chalerm, he might be off the wagon or on ear drops.

Still not understand why newspapers even care and wright about this dictator, who should go in the books with Hitler, Pinochet, Idi Amin, Putin, J.W. Bush, Marcos, Mugabe and Robert Amsterdam, all delusional maniacs

You made a lot of people happy by not including President G.W. Bush in your list. Of course you are not write because you missed one president and it is kind of difficult to spell S-O-T-E-R-O.

Edited March 15, 2014 by unanimosity

[unanimosity]

How many fag packs did that take to write? Is this journalism?

Apparently not, because the word fugitive is used to describe Thaksin, which is blatant propaganda, not to mention false. He is not running from anybody because nobody is chasing him and there are no warrants seeking his arrest and extradition by other nations. He travels freely the world over. How could anybody be lame enough to buy into the lie that he is a fugitive?