Thaksin's political predictions from Beijing

[Siripon]

Thaksin is a fugitive, not only did he flee from Thailand after being given a prison sentence, he also dares not come back because of the other cases outstanding,

A pecularity of Thai law is that unless the defendant is physically present, some cases cannot proceed.

Thaksin of course knows this well, which is why he won't come back without an amnesty, it's not only the Ratchada case.

[Trembly]

Note to the readers: I am NOT a red or yellow partisan. I just a 10 years neutral observer of the political circus and failed Democracy in Thailand

I believe the Democrats - if led by Abhisit - have a unique chance to WIN (yes i say win) the coming elections. It would an absolute first time since the Thaksin era. Why do i think so? Both Red and Yellow sides are divided. Suthep and its continuous gesticulations and failed promises is far from attracting all the yellow supporters. Cleverly Abhisit stays on the backstage, probably to prepare a timely return. On the Red side, Thaksin has lost a LOT of ground, probably much more than its predictions. Let's be fair here, Thaksin on his early days did a lot for rural areas (roads, hospitals, electricity etc...). Despite all scandals, the failed and corrupted rice scheme, he still keeps a broad electorate. But, most importantly, I believe that many of the old "Thaksin" supporters would be ready to vote for Abhisit (I say Abhisit, not the Democrats) if he gives some positive signals to the farmers and rural areas. For that, Abhisit would need to take some risks by stepping aside the rut of the traditional feudal society. He has the Education and some experience. I do not mean that the whole (Feudal) system will change tomorrow, but - like never before - the electoral map is ready to move in Thailand. To capture this electorate, Abhisit must not only lend "allegiance" to the traditional Democrats allies, but also to the rural electorate who started to understand that Thaksin and Co is not anymore a solution for the Country. Will Abhisit dare shaking the "System"?

dream on... his only chance is (as you hint at) is to give up the old elite ammart but that would take a few years not by the next election and he doesn't have the balls to do it

PTP win with less seats

I do love the constant trotting out of "old elite ammart" . . . let's not forget however that there is another side to this . . . the "new elite ammart" of which Thaksin is one . . . it's exactly the same system as the "old", simply with "new" money rather than from traditional "old" wealthy families, other than that, their goals and beliefs are pretty much exactly the same . . . the desire to hold power at any cost, the belief that they are untouchable and can do anything they want, the belief that they are "better" than everyone else and therefore hold a Buddha-driven right to control and dictate to all, all whilst taking far more than they ever give back.

Thaksin is as about as old-skool ammart as they come. His forbear, a rich Thai-Chinese merchant married into titled Chiang Mai aristocracy and founded a political dynasty starting in the 1960's with a stalwart position in local politics in the rich and large province of Chiang Mai ... This isn't new money.

Edited March 15, 2014 by Trembly

[HonestQuietBob]

What happened to any of Thaksin's previous predictions ? All the times since 2008 when he said he would return to Thailand ? Imminently, I think were the words. What happened when he predicted his return to Thailand six months after the 2011 election ? How did that go ? Complications at the airport ? What happened to his amnesty bill ? ( Sorry. Just had to ask ). Was that a Thaksin initiative that bit the dust ? Really ? Why ? Not a full-proof idea ? Were his powers of prediction fuzzy then ? Why do people place so much weight on this man ? Yes, he's rich. But does that mean he can think ? These revelations of how Thaksin thinks do only one thing - they galvanize the reform movement. They breathe new life into it. Though, to be honest, there is one constant to everything that Thaksin utters. They all have to do with him.

Your recent prominent prediction was that YS would be gone March 3rd or 4th or some such, which Thaksin knew he could ignore coming from anyone. Your horse still hasn't crossed the finish line but you're still hollering it on, the only one.

Thaksin was actually quite prescient when it came to his predictions on the outcome of the 2011elections.

At the time the general feeling was that Yingluck would win, but there wasn't the outright confidence in such a result as in times gone by.

Thaksin predicted PTP would win 270 seats - they won 265

Thaksin predicted PTP would beat the Democrats by 100 seats - they beat them by 106

Thaksin predicted that the top 60 PTP party list candidates would win - the top 61 PTP part list candidates won.

Like him or hate him, the man knows his stuff when it comes to Thai politics.

Whether you see him as a force for good or a force for evil you have to admit that he is one hell of a good politician (not sure if that's a compliment or an insult).