Thailand may lag behind neighbous under AEC framework

[Thai at Heart]

And so it begins. This is the first time I have seen any recognition that Thai businesses may have difficulty competing with neighboring countries.

I disagree that the political situation is solely to blame, there are many issues deeply rooted in Thai business practices that do not travel well.

Hard lessons to be learnt I think, and very soon.

Least of which is believing they have a god given right to be superior. Pride before a fall comes to mind

[englishoak]

Thailand will get what Thailand deserves, good or bad it is all self inflicted, best thing that can happen is a big dose of embarrassment and woeful inadequateness brought home to full realisation. Unfortunately they will just blame everything but themselves... bring it on

[biggles45]

If foreigners are allowed to work in Thailand many Thais will not find a job. Anything related to English language."

It won't happen. Thailand announced some time ago that they would restrict employment under the AEC regime to eight professional categories. They will,protect their patch and damn the AEC rules

[1Ping1]

The ASEAN, AEC, I guess to me means that the top feeders want to get more from the bottom feeders. As always, it is always going to be about money and about who gets what portion of it. The bottom line is it will always add up to 100% of whatever it is you are trading. It is just a matter of who gets what percentage of it, and and from whom do they get it. So, some countries are going to do better, others are going to do worse. It is one of those "only the strong survive" type of economic "long game" situations. It is not a "win, win" situation at all. Yeah their are those "win win" situations out there but this sure as hell is not one of them. In this case, there are going to be big winners, and big losers.

In the more global picture to me this would then mean that Thailand had best "first get" and then have their game face on or they are going to get their arse kicked. This is not some fly by night flash in the pants gig. It has huge long term implications for each countries economic health and trade across borders in the years ahead and for generations to come.

I love Thailand. Love the country, love the people. I have spent enough time in all our neighbors countries to state that for me, Thailand has been and is my choice for a great place to live for me and my Thai Family. I am though a little pissed to think that the "culture of doing business in Thailand" would allow the country to fall to the weigh-side as others with more common sense climb on board and overtake Thailand in its standard of living index in SEA.

[IsaanUSA]

The ASEAN, AEC, I guess to me means that the top feeders want to get more from the bottom feeders. As always, it is always going to be about money and about who gets what portion of it.

To me it means free trade within ASEAN nations, a chance to compete against China in global trade and a way to attempt to insulate themselves from a China takeover. It *should* mean better infrastructure between ASEAN nations to help facilitate the trade as well as a small uptick in quality of life for the less fortunate ASEAN nations.

[Mikey5311]

Always be a place of good food pirated goods, and steaming nightlife. Not every country has to be an economic or intellectual success. Sure the other ASEAN countries know what's up. But you can always wave the big number one finger. "Some people are so far behind in a race, that when they look up they think they are in first."

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[northernjohn]

Thats a surprise! I think Thailand thought they would be leading the pack . Those countries that are willing to take best practice from around the world will be in the forefront and at the moment that is not Thailand. When they stop thinking that everyone else is stupid and they know best things might change, it starts in the education system, stop telling the kids that they are a superior race, start telling them that there are a lot of clever people over the borders and you need to be as clever as them or more so or things are going to get a lot worse in the future, its your life make a difference for your country, or, get left behind.

Agree with you 100%

The problem is that all this should have started years ago. This current situation has nothing to do with Thailand's unpreparedness.

The seeds for it have been planted and nourished for years in the school system. Even if they do decide to start educating the kids they will as you say have to stop the nonsense that they come from a superior country.

[Mentors]

The Golden Years in Thailand are over. Self made.

[northernjohn]

Thailand will end up being a powerhouse in the AEC bloc in the long run. The implementation of AEC has now been put back to December 2015 and it is doubtful that many of the other countries ( Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia as examples) are going to be fully ready either for its revised start.

The AEC is going to change the ASEAN business landscape beyond recognition and in a positive way and many of us in transnational businesses in the region are gearing towards it with great anticipation.

Yes it will be in the long run. The main problem is they never started to educate the students so they will be held back by at least one generation.

As for the business scene. Not being a business man myself how can it grow with no workers. Who is going to start a company up and pay 300 baht a day when they can do it cheaper in other countries.

It is not like these are unknown facts. As has been mentioned the ownership will also be a factor in it. There is only room for so many companies to start up with the ownership having to be 51% Thai.

I would not be a bit surprised if the Government who ever they will be didn't start checking into small business where a foreigner is running it. Hold them to the letter of the law to avoid disputes with other countries. Yes indeed it will take a long time.

Interesting times ahead and as you say Thailand will not be the only one not prepared. But I wonder how many of the others have been preparing for it.

[northernjohn]

And so it begins. This is the first time I have seen any recognition that Thai businesses may have difficulty competing with neighboring countries.

I disagree that the political situation is solely to blame, there are many issues deeply rooted in Thai business practices that do not travel well.

Hard lessons to be learnt I think, and very soon.

I am far from a Thai basher and not in a position to judge the validity of the things I have heard.

One of them is that a Thai is as a rule lazy. Another is that they will for no reason just quit a job. If these things are true it will defiantly hurt Thailand's chances of being the center of AESON.

[1Ping1]

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Thailand will end up being a powerhouse in the AEC bloc in the long run. The implementation of AEC has now been put back to December 2015 and it is doubtful that many of the other countries ( Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia as examples) are going to be fully ready either for its revised start.

The AEC is going to change the ASEAN business landscape beyond recognition and in a positive way and many of us in transnational businesses in the region are gearing towards it with great anticipation.

Yes it will be in the long run. The main problem is they never started to educate the students so they will be held back by at least one generation.

As for the business scene. Not being a business man myself how can it grow with no workers. Who is going to start a company up and pay 300 baht a day when they can do it cheaper in other countries.

It is not like these are unknown facts. As has been mentioned the ownership will also be a factor in it. There is only room for so many companies to start up with the ownership having to be 51% Thai.

I would not be a bit surprised if the Government who ever they will be didn't start checking into small business where a foreigner is running it. Hold them to the letter of the law to avoid disputes with other countries. Yes indeed it will take a long time.

Interesting times ahead and as you say Thailand will not be the only one not prepared. But I wonder how many of the others have been preparing for it.

Use of

My gut, (wrong before, will be wrong again) feels that Thailand is farther behind than we think. I truly pray that I am wrong............

Cambodia, Philippines, yep, they are way behind. But, others are looking to be ahead as money starts to pour into a more open Burma these past few years and Malaysia, even with all its problems, at least as appears to be more geared up for the future.

As noted on labor. Great question and I agree, just where do the workers come from. As most of us know, every construction project of any size already has illegal workers from outside Thailand making 150-180 Baht per day. My Wife's Brother is a large Thai Contractor building 40-50 houses at a time in NE Thailand. He sub's out all work to contractors. They in turn, bring in all their workers from (in his case) Cambodia. Meaning they are making roughly half the minimum wage of a worker legally in Thailand.

I am all for open trade between countries and in the fighting off of China taking an even bigger picture of the pie. I just am having a hard time seeing how this is going to benefit the average Thai in any positive way.

As for the economics of establishing and doing business in a cross border future business climate. Look at infrastructure, well, we already drive on the wrong side of the road and the steering is on the wrong side of the car compared to most of our neighbors. To increase across boarder trading with our new partners this in itself is going to be a big problem. With long haul truckers this simply does not work. Roads, even if it did, well, we all know the answer to that. Our roads are crap. Rail systems, we have "one ancient track" going from north to south through the entire country. Not exactly geared up for hauling cross boarder goods and trading in that fashion either.

As noted, I pray I am wrong. If, as I believe, Thai's already have one of the better "Standard of Living" indexes in SEA. Simply leveling the playing field in itself could and will only have a negative impact on their day to day standard of living.

I applaud you in your business and am sure you are going to succeed. For those in business I think that yes, this is a good thing as it opens up the borders to many things, including though "legal" cheaper labor. Again, my only real concern is the quality of life for the average Thai as I also am retired, and do not have a business.

To me, if your neighbors standard of living goes up, as I noted in my first post, yours in most cases historically, will go down. With jobs in Thailand already being farmed out to their less fortunate neighbors due to Thai's not wanting to do the work on the cheap. (as is already the case today) Well, I do not see that as a good thing down the road. It is going to mean "leveling the playing field". Meaning again, and the only point I was trying to make, If they make more money, their standard of living goes up. If thai's then have even less jobs, well, then theirs in most cases is going to go down.

It is going to be a "Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way" situation. I as I am sure we all do, pray we are leading the way, or at least smart enough to get firmly to the front of the pack.

[Scarpolo]

I agree that Thailand is being left behind.

Its a shame too because they are squandering at the wrong time in history.

Laos has huge new construction projects and a better climate

dont discount that because climate does mean something, as Bangkok just gets hotter

[kimamey]

Bye bye Thailand, Thaksin will probably rename it Shinland.

Figured some idiot would bring thaksin into a topic that has nothing to do with him PATHETIC

I wouldn't believe the rename it Shinland either but it's hard to see how someone who keeps winning elections and is behind the last government has nothing to do with it.

[IsaanUSA]

I guess I disagree with the last few posters about Thailand being behind. First of all, we have to look at only the countries in ASEAN. Thailand is not #1 in ASEAN, but they are far from the back. Laos has some new construction projects? Look at the projects in Thailand! Laos construction combined with Cambodia and Myanmar does not equal the construction going on in Thailand.

Also I disagree that if your neighbor's standard of living improves, then yours will worsen. Why? Maybe some Burmese people will have floors in their houses in the future because their company was able to export 100% more goods because of the AEC. Maybe they will be able to purchase a motorbike because their cousin was able to start a trading business and has given his family jobs in the company. How does that make the standard of living in Thailand go down? Because the new "wealth" in Myanmar will cause the prices of goods to go up and make goods a bit more expensive in Thailand?

Thailand manufactures a lot of goods that it will be able to export a little bit easier after AEC comes online. Many Thai companies will be bringing in more money than before. I don't invest in the SET, but Boon Rawd, ThaiBev, Central, Major, and some Thai chain restaurants should be in for some good business after AEC goes live and they expand into neighboring areas.

[justjoined]

As noted on labor. Great question and I agree, just where do the workers come from. As most of us know, every construction project of any size already has illegal workers from outside Thailand making 150-180 Baht per day.

A couple of misconceptions here, firstly, the AEC has no provisions for unskilled labor, only professionals and only in certain fields.

Secondly, it's not true that "every construction project of any size already has workers from outside Thailand making 150-180 Baht per day". Migrant workers (both documented or otherwise), are often paid min wage. This is due to the critical labor shortage in Thailand.

There is a lot of scaremongering about the AECs impact, however it's possible that the AEC will lead to only minor changes, as is suggested by this article: Why the AEC in 2015 Will Lead to Few Changes in Thailand