Another critical point looms with verdict: Thai analysis

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NATION ANALYSIS
Another critical point looms with verdict
SOMROUTAI SAPSOMBOON
THE NATION

THE OPTIONS: COMPROMISE, FURTHER DEADLOCK OR BREAKING POINT

BANGKOK: -- THE COUNTRY'S prolonged power struggle has reached a critical point, with the Constitutional Court readying to make a landmark ruling that could lead to a political vacuum amid an escalating showdown between the rival camps.

Songkran is barely over and the political mercury is soaring as the Constitutional Court takes up hearings in a key trial in which caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is accused of violating the charter in connection with the transfer of National Security Council secretary-general Thawil Pliensri.

Yingluck is required to submit her defence statement to the court by tomorrow. It is possible she may defer her testimony or the court may ask her to submit additional information.

The court, however, is expected to hand down its verdict within this month or early May, because the case has already been ruled on by the Supreme Administrative Court.

Government supporters and opponents have threatened to mobilise protesters in a show of force on the day the court hands down its verdict. But confrontations may occur after the ruling is issued, as both political camps are yet to identify their fighting strategies.

Following the verdict, there are five possible scenarios: 1. Yingluck is dismissed, with no further ruling; 2. Yingluck is dismissed and the court states that the caretaker Cabinet continues its job; 3. Yingluck is dismissed and only those Cabinet members who endorsed Thawil's transfer are dismissed from duty; 4. Yingluck and her entire caretaker Cabinet are dismissed from duty; 5. Yingluck and her entire Cabinet are dismissed from duty, and the Senate acts on behalf of Parliament to nominate a new PM.

The caretaker government can accept the first three scenarios, and if the court rules in any of these first three ways, the prolonged political deadlock would continue. If the court rules in favour of the fourth or fifth scenarios - both of which the government has declared unacceptable - the country will enter into a political vacuum.

The government is likely to mobilise masses to oppose the ruling or reject the court ruling only on the point about the Cabinet being dismissed. The government's next calculated move could be to resort to the proposal by caretaker Justice Minister Chaikasem Nitisiri to take recourse under Article 7 of the Constitution asking for a royal judgement as to whether the caretaker Cabinet could be dismissed.

When the Constitutional Court ruled that the late ex-premier Samak Sundaravej ceased to hold his post in 2008 after taking money for appearing on a TV cookery show, his Cabinet continued working as a caretaker.

At that time the House voted Somchai Wongsawat to replace Samak, but the Thaksin camp does not have this luxury because Yingluck has dissolved the House.

The Thaksin camp thus faces risks of being toppled from power in at least two ways - one is from the People's Democratic Reform Committee and the other is the Senate, through the Senate speaker, who acts as Parliament president.

PDRC chief Suthep Thaugsuban has vowed to establish his "sovereign power" and appoint his own PM and cabinet before seeking royal endorsement.

The Senate has stepped up pressure on the government to issue a Royal Decree, calling for a special Senate convention so that it can consider impeaching former Senate Speaker Nikom Wairatpanij, who is accused of violating the charter for chairing the debate on amending the charter's provisions pertaining to the composition of the Senate.

The government has tried to block the Senate from getting involved in the power struggle. This is apparently because it believes that if a meeting to discuss Nikom's impeachment is held, the Senate might take the opportunity to vote and select a new Speaker connected with the old establishment, and to nominate a PM with its own political affiliation. If the government refuses to call a special Senate meeting, the Senate may have to seek a Constitutional Court ruling.

The two rival camps may be able to reach a compromise over the election, as both political camps have agreed to attend a meeting to discuss holding a new election on April 22. However the Election Commission has revealed that the security agencies and the military told the agency it is unlikely the election can be held within 60 days.

So the outcome remains unclear as to whether the rival camps will be able to reach a compromise or hit breaking point. Even continued political deadlock cannot be ruled out.


-- The Nation 2014-04-17

[Thaiisnotrequired]

Shouldn't the purple circle read "Civil war"?

[Tatsujin]

#5 here we come . . .

[rabas]

Excellent, excellent, .... all is going well.

Politicians on all sides are virtually immobilized and unable to do much of anything.

Now, if only we can get some good Thai citizens and create posts for them to take care of the country's business and society's needs, all will be well and the country will progress rapidly. Throw in some people from all walks of life, farmers, businessmen, teachers, a couple of ex-monks.

Edited April 17, 2014 by rabas

[noitom]

This Thai nonsense gets tiresome.

[Thait Spot]

Nicely explained in that article. Even a dyed in the wool red head could follow that

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[chainarong]

The only growth industry in Thailand is the courts, however tomorrow, in some countries around the world is Easter Good Friday, and being a very devout religious person that I am it's (Atheist Sixpk) , good luck Caretaker PM Yingluck and may all your eggs gather in one basket.

[antimedia]

Nicely explained in that article. Even a dyed in the wool red head could follow that

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

No, not Fryslan boppe It is too simple for him, he will dissect it and rearrange it to suit his BDP (http://www.borderlinepersonalitytoday.com/main/anon.htm)

[Gunna]

This Thai nonsense gets tiresome.

I realise Reds and their supporters don't follow legal procedures, unless it helps them stay in power and keep their noses in the trough.

[Thait Spot]

Nicely explained in that article. Even a dyed in the wool red head could follow that

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

No, not Fryslan boppe It is too simple for him, he will dissect it and rearrange it to suit his BDP (http://www.borderlinepersonalitytoday.com/main/anon.htm)

He's a lost cause.

He's the equivalent of Thaksin's bald cat

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Scamper]

In the closing months, weeks, and days of the Nixon administration it seemed as if the process was endless. And yet, suddenly he resigned, Ford was sworn in the following day, and there was this collective sigh of relief - even from Republicans. They just wanted to get on to the next chapter. This too appears endless, but at this point we can see that it is developing into a critical mass. Slowly but surely - even with all the delaying tactics that have been employed, and all the ones yet to come - Yingluck and her battered administration are running out of options. Option 5 is the cleanest, and affords the best chance for a fresh start. Options 4 and 5 clear the slate of Thaksin. Options 1, 2, or 3 keep him hanging on - by a thread. But there is no question that his grip and options have greatly receded in the last six months. The country has changed, just as it has each successive year when no one was looking. And change has caught up with this moment.

[Halion]

For God's sake ,just get on with it.

[aussieinthailand]

And I was under the impression that the courts Not the Nation will decide on the guilty or not guilty verdict, in it's 5 possible scenarios where did it say the courts could give a not guilty verdict, I think this will not happen but it seems unsurprisingly the Nation has again shown is bias yet again, any Suthep supporters care to show otherwise?

[rametindallas]

Shouldn't the purple circle read "Civil war"?

There will be civil war only if Thaksin orders and funds it. No one else would stoop so low or wants power so badly.

[rametindallas]

That decision to dissolve the Parliament, hold snap elections, and get a new mandate from the people, is not looking so smart now. Thaksin is like a malignant, aggressive cancer; sometimes the treatment to remove it kills the patient and sometimes when you think it's beaten into remission, it comes back stronger. I am hoping for the best but, knowing the nature and past behavior of Thaksin, expect the worst.

[Publicus]

Nicely explained in that article. Even a dyed in the wool red head could follow that

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

No, not Fryslan boppe It is too simple for him, he will dissect it and rearrange it to suit his BDP (http://www.borderlinepersonalitytoday.com/main/anon.htm)

He's a lost cause.

He's the equivalent of Thaksin's bald cat

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The bopper's got you guys talking to yourselves which is good cause coup the more you post to one another coup the more you are distracted from the fight. It's been about a month now coup you guys have been read every heavily biased coup Nation article to figure how the bopper will coup shred it.

A coup is a coup is a coup.

[Local Drunk]

Nicely explained in that article. Even a dyed in the wool red head could follow that

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

No, not Fryslan boppe It is too simple for him, he will dissect it and rearrange it to suit his BDP (http://www.borderlinepersonalitytoday.com/main/anon.htm)

He's a lost cause.

He's the equivalent of Thaksin's bald cat

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The bopper's got you guys talking to yourselves which is good cause coup the more you post to one another coup the more you are distracted from the fight. It's been about a month now coup you guys have been read every heavily biased coup Nation article to figure how the bopper will coup shred it.

A coup is a coup is a coup.

"A coup is a coup is a coup."

I'd say, "the law is the law is the law" and no one above the law.

[antimedia]

Nicely explained in that article. Even a dyed in the wool red head could follow that

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

No, not Fryslan boppe It is too simple for him, he will dissect it and rearrange it to suit his BDP (http://www.borderlinepersonalitytoday.com/main/anon.htm)

He's a lost cause.

He's the equivalent of Thaksin's bald cat

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The bopper's got you guys talking to yourselves which is good cause coup the more you post to one another coup the more you are distracted from the fight. It's been about a month now coup you guys have been read every heavily biased coup Nation article to figure how the bopper will coup shred it.

A coup is a coup is a coup.

I don't know what your on but it must make your day & night a lot different to the normal person.

[Eric Loh]

This coup can't happen thrice in less than 10 years. No Taksin PMs have survived a full term and now Yingluck faced the same fate. This is more than coincidence and certainly more than the charges laid out to all of them. The pattern is blatantly obvious that there are powerful forces that refused to relinquish their power and share their wealth and willing to destroy the country to serve their agenda. Suterp and Ahbisit and all their supporting casts are just lackeys of this powerful force.

[djjamie]

The government has tried to block the Senate from getting involved in the power struggle.

The semblance between this and the PDRC in some aspects are uncanny. The PDRC want to hold off on elections to ensure reform is forthcoming. The PTP want to hold of on the senate to convene to ensure that the new senate speaker is not voted on thus a new PM is handpicked by the senate. The PTP know what the result could be if the senate convenes and they hate it. With that mindset they don't give a hoot about democracy or the principle of elections. They conveniently spout democracy and elections because they perceive a favorable result. If not favorable then their agenda would be the same as the senate scenario they are playing here. Stop it at all costs, delay it and have reform before elections. Not saying this is not the ethos of Suthep. It may well be, but at least it is an ethos that also plays into ensuring democracy is stable and transparent and corruption free.

THE PTP will support anything when it suits their agenda. Not democracy. They will approve of anything when it suits their agenda. Over the last 2.5 years though they have proven that if it does not suit their agenda then whether democratic or not they will denounce it, fight it, go against it and dismiss it. This election would be no different.

#5 is an option a majority could live though a minority driven group with an armed street gang would suggest #5 is an option a majority could die buy.

Lets hope cooler heads prevail and the opposition can articulate their feelings instead of resorting to violence.

[soalbundy]

This coup can't happen thrice in less than 10 years. No Taksin PMs have survived a full term and now Yingluck faced the same fate. This is more than coincidence and certainly more than the charges laid out to all of them. The pattern is blatantly obvious that there are powerful forces that refused to relinquish their power and share their wealth and willing to destroy the country to serve their agenda. Suterp and Ahbisit and all their supporting casts are just lackeys of this powerful force.

The establishment,the real power in every civilized country. Silent,patient,unbeatable

[virtualtraveller]

And when it's all over the courts should sue the UDD leadership for organising intimidation of the ruling.

[rametindallas]

This coup can't happen thrice in less than 10 years. No Taksin PMs have survived a full term and now Yingluck faced the same fate. This is more than coincidence and certainly more than the charges laid out to all of them. The pattern is blatantly obvious that there are powerful forces that refused to relinquish their power and share their wealth and willing to destroy the country to serve their agenda. Suterp and Ahbisit and all their supporting casts are just lackeys of this powerful force.

You are correct. We should all bow down to and relinquish all power to Thaksin the Magnificent. The Savior of Thailand, Solver of All Problems. The Only Person Who Cares for the Poor.

Rubbish!

Where is it written the power should be relinquished to a megalomaniac who has shown he is ready to sacrifice all Thailand if he can't get his power back?

[rreddin]

In the closing months, weeks, and days of the Nixon administration it seemed as if the process was endless. And yet, suddenly he resigned, Ford was sworn in the following day, and there was this collective sigh of relief - even from Republicans. They just wanted to get on to the next chapter. This too appears endless, but at this point we can see that it is developing into a critical mass. Slowly but surely - even with all the delaying tactics that have been employed, and all the ones yet to come - Yingluck and her battered administration are running out of options. Option 5 is the cleanest, and affords the best chance for a fresh start. Options 4 and 5 clear the slate of Thaksin. Options 1, 2, or 3 keep him hanging on - by a thread. But there is no question that his grip and options have greatly receded in the last six months. The country has changed, just as it has each successive year when no one was looking. And change has caught up with this moment.

And what of the millions of ordinary Thais who will have had their election stolen from them? A judicial coup is not an acceptable option. Option 5 spells the end of democratically elected government in Thailand and a return to government by unelected, unaccountable self-interest groups. Not quite pre-1932, more like a dictatorship, which is what the Dear Leader, Benito Suthep is calling for. Even benign dictators are still dictators. That is,of coursr, if Thailand can be held together as a country and not become a federation of largely autonomous regions.

[Eric Loh]

This coup can't happen thrice in less than 10 years. No Taksin PMs have survived a full term and now Yingluck faced the same fate. This is more than coincidence and certainly more than the charges laid out to all of them. The pattern is blatantly obvious that there are powerful forces that refused to relinquish their power and share their wealth and willing to destroy the country to serve their agenda. Suterp and Ahbisit and all their supporting casts are just lackeys of this powerful force.

You are correct. We should all bow down to and relinquish all power to Thaksin the Magnificent. The Savior of Thailand, Solver of All Problems. The Only Person Who Cares for the Poor.

Rubbish!

Where is it written the power should be relinquished to a megalomaniac who has shown he is ready to sacrifice all Thailand if he can't get his power back?

You are also correct. We should accept quietly like in 2006 these usurphers of democracy who trampled on people rights to choose. These same usurphers that refused to share the wealth and continue to keep the people uneducated and poor so they can lord over them.

Where is it written anywhere in the world except N Korea that power should be taken by might and keep their citizens subjugated.

[rametindallas]

This coup can't happen thrice in less than 10 years. No Taksin PMs have survived a full term and now Yingluck faced the same fate. This is more than coincidence and certainly more than the charges laid out to all of them. The pattern is blatantly obvious that there are powerful forces that refused to relinquish their power and share their wealth and willing to destroy the country to serve their agenda. Suterp and Ahbisit and all their supporting casts are just lackeys of this powerful force.

You are correct. We should all bow down to and relinquish all power to Thaksin the Magnificent. The Savior of Thailand, Solver of All Problems. The Only Person Who Cares for the Poor.

Rubbish!

Where is it written the power should be relinquished to a megalomaniac who has shown he is ready to sacrifice all Thailand if he can't get his power back?

You are also correct. We should accept quietly like in 2006 these usurphers of democracy who trampled on people rights to choose. These same usurphers that refused to share the wealth and continue to keep the people uneducated and poor so they can lord over them.

Where is it written anywhere in the world except N Korea that power should be taken by might and keep their citizens subjugated.

Thaksin, the 'Education PM'. Name one way he improved education in Thailand in the six years he had political dominance.

You speak as if there is a monolith of power that share the spoils but keep only Thaksin from sharing. You have it backwards. Thaksin tried to get a monopoly on corruption in Thailand.

The Establishment did NOT gain their power through force (neither did the Kim family in N. Korea for that matter) (by any chance, did you get your education at a Red Village school?) Thaksin is the one, through the UDD, that is trying to seize power through force as exampled by his paid Red mob in 2010.

Revisionist much?

[Goat Roper]

That decision to dissolve the Parliament, hold snap elections, and get a new mandate from the people, is not looking so smart now. Thaksin is like a malignant, aggressive cancer; sometimes the treatment to remove it kills the patient and sometimes when you think it's beaten into remission, it comes back stronger. I am hoping for the best but, knowing the nature and past behavior of Thaksin, expect the worst.

Corecto-mundo dallas. It's amazing what Baht Ha-Roi will do.

[rabas]

This coup can't happen thrice in less than 10 years. No Taksin PMs have survived a full term and now Yingluck faced the same fate. This is more than coincidence and certainly more than the charges laid out to all of them. The pattern is blatantly obvious that there are powerful forces that refused to relinquish their power and share their wealth and willing to destroy the country to serve their agenda. Suterp and Ahbisit and all their supporting casts are just lackeys of this powerful force.

Your logic is false.

Observation: Every Thaksin backed government is brought down by corruption before full tenure.

Your conclusion: Someone else did it.

Logical conclusion: Every Thaksin backed government is corrupt.

Proof. All Thai governments are corrupt.

[Eric Loh]

This coup can't happen thrice in less than 10 years. No Taksin PMs have survived a full term and now Yingluck faced the same fate. This is more than coincidence and certainly more than the charges laid out to all of them. The pattern is blatantly obvious that there are powerful forces that refused to relinquish their power and share their wealth and willing to destroy the country to serve their agenda. Suterp and Ahbisit and all their supporting casts are just lackeys of this powerful force.

You are correct. We should all bow down to and relinquish all power to Thaksin the Magnificent. The Savior of Thailand, Solver of All Problems. The Only Person Who Cares for the Poor.

Rubbish!

Where is it written the power should be relinquished to a megalomaniac who has shown he is ready to sacrifice all Thailand if he can't get his power back?

You are also correct. We should accept quietly like in 2006 these usurphers of democracy who trampled on people rights to choose. These same usurphers that refused to share the wealth and continue to keep the people uneducated and poor so they can lord over them.

Where is it written anywhere in the world except N Korea that power should be taken by might and keep their citizens subjugated.

Thaksin, the 'Education PM'. Name one way he improved education in Thailand in the six years he had political dominance.

You speak as if there is a monolith of power that share the spoils but keep only Thaksin from sharing. You have it backwards. Thaksin tried to get a monopoly on corruption in Thailand.

The Establishment did NOT gain their power through force (neither did the Kim family in N. Korea for that matter) (by any chance, did you get your education at a Red Village school?) Thaksin is the one, through the UDD, that is trying to seize power through force as exampled by his paid Red mob in 2010.

Revisionist much?

I didnt mention Taksin the educator but since you mentioned, here are his education policies - school decentralization, learning reform and curricular decentralization through use of holistic education and less rote learning, Student loan fund for poor citizens to universities, Income contingency loan program and One district one dream school project.

Kim didnt gain power through force?? Where have you hiding last 50 years??

UDD seize power?? They demonstrated for a new election something alien to people like you and the PDRC.

[Eric Loh]

This coup can't happen thrice in less than 10 years. No Taksin PMs have survived a full term and now Yingluck faced the same fate. This is more than coincidence and certainly more than the charges laid out to all of them. The pattern is blatantly obvious that there are powerful forces that refused to relinquish their power and share their wealth and willing to destroy the country to serve their agenda. Suterp and Ahbisit and all their supporting casts are just lackeys of this powerful force.

Your logic is false.

Observation: Every Thaksin backed government is brought down by corruption before full tenure.

Your conclusion: Someone else did it.

Logical conclusion: Every Thaksin backed government is corrupt.

Proof. All Thai governments are corrupt.

Last 20 years all governments were brought down by corruption. Chavalit brought down by corrupted managing the economy which initiated the Tom Yam Kong financial crisis. Next Chuan brought down by human right violation, cronyism and corruption in which Suterp land corruption in Phuket was the driver.

Not disputing the wrongs by Taksin including corruptions but the establishment cannot be selective in deciding who should be the government as all are corrupted by mobilizing the judiciary and independent agencies to be the hatcher-man. Ultimately it must be left to the people to vote the corrupted government out.