Reasons of change

[chiang mai]

Mmmm, 54.70, are we getting excited yet, how many extra Chang per day does that equate to?

So how low/high will it go? GBP/THB is pushing 1.69!

Are we happy or are we afraid or do we not care a single jot?

[i claudius]

Beat me to the punch ,i was going to ask the same questiones ,come on Naam ,tell us.

[topt]

CM you must be bored....... ;-)

(and I think you meant GBP/$US pushing 1.69......)

[chiang mai]

No, I mean GBP/THB is pushing 1.69, just to anoy and make a point with alfie!:

But yes, kinda bored so I thought I might stir things a tad before dinner and see where it takes us, who knows, we might yet bring the total of thinking minds to three.

[Naam]

Beat me to the punch ,i was going to ask the same questiones ,come on Naam ,tell us.

here's my standard answer: "i have no idea and i couldn't care less what GBP is doing vs. THB."

[i claudius]

Beat me to the punch ,i was going to ask the same questiones ,come on Naam ,tell us.

here's my standard answer: "i have no idea and i couldn't care less what GBP is doing vs. THB."

Typical answer from a German

[petermik]

Will be at 63 baht/pound when I return next month-I hope

[Jip99]

No, I mean GBP/THB is pushing 1.69, just to anoy and make a point with alfie!:

But yes, kinda bored so I thought I might stir things a tad before dinner and see where it takes us, who knows, we might yet bring the total of thinking minds to three.

Bored and probably on the Chang

I do recall you saying, not too long ago, that it would not stay over 50.

Conditions are better, and improving in the UK. Not sure it can sustain this run beyond 55 - but, hey, that is a whole lot better than 45!

[Skint]

I'd be thinking about cashing in yer pounds before independence scuppers your pipe dreams

[chiang mai]

Sterling strength has surprised almost everyone for quite some time now, its status as a safe haven currency has worked to its favour as the wrangling in Europe have continued and other conflicts have unwound. Most people believed that a strong Pound would work against economic recovery since that makes exports more expensive, I certainly did. But where a recovery is not export led and instead relies almost solely on consumer spending, Sterling strength is less of an issue. It's worth noting however that the export picture is unlikley to improve as a result.

UK house prices haven't really been allowed to fall and now they've taken off yet again, one of only a small handful of countries where that's been allowed to happen, the US housing market corrected, Ireland corrected and parts of Europe are still correcting. UK bank loan books remain under pressure and Carney's forthcomming stress testing of them to see if they can withstand a 35% drop in values seems to reinforce that. But UK elections are not too far away so the consumer must be kept happy, rising housing prices will do the trick in some areas and the promise of interest rate increases will do so in others, sadly, that a loosing combination since it means that consumers will start to default on their mortgages and/or that banks mortgage books will become even more stressed.

And then there's the issue of debt and deficit, that's another aspect of recovery that has surpised many, how can the economy be in recovery whilst debt is increasing at such a phenominal rate!

So what's the summary of the UK picture: it's currently one of the better economic pictures of any country although its safe haven status plays a major role in that, if and when funds flows reverse, what happens then. All I can think of is that this unsustainable party can't go on for ever although I can't imagine the sequence of events that will cause the Pound to correct.

And so to Thailand. It's really the same story isn't it, unlike the UK Thailand has cheaper labour, considerably fewer employment and productivity constraints and it has a considerable export market. But of course it doesn't have the political stability of the UK although that scenario is unlikely to last forever also. At some point the mess in Bangkok will get sorted out and there are glimmers of hope on that front currently. Civil war seems hugely improbable and the idea that THB would crash seems nothing more than fantasy on the part of a few expats! The Fed continues to unwind QE and that has proved to be the armagedon that some people thought - GDP and exports are down, predictably but foriegn currency reserves continue to grow. My take on that is that the Thai economy will take off quite quickly as soon as the political picture stabilises and given low levels of governement debt, the future looks pretty decent (and sustainable) I reckon.

But then of course there's consumer debt in Thailand which is a concern, 83% the last time I looked although that in itself could prove to be an added incentive to sort out the political problems.

The final component is the Chinese economy and the impact that might have on Thailand if indeed it slows too much - I have no view on that.

Your turn to complete/correct the picture.

And sorry Jip, alcohol has not been a part of my life for many years due to health concerns and even when it was, it never involved Chang! And actually the comment that I made more recently on GBP/THB (unless you have a thing for year old exchange rate forecasts) was with Berkshire/12DM I believe where we agreed that GBP/THB would be hugely unlikely to go beyond 57, 55 is in itself a mountain.

Edited May 2, 2014 by chiang mai

[meatboy]

being from the valley's of wales currency is what my mum put in cakes,but since I have had interest in what happens with the gbp.whenever the conservatives[sPIT] take office, after what used to be the workingmans party[labour twits] leave it in a mess they always seem to get the economy back in shape until people get fed up with their policies and it gets ---ked again remember G.B.and A.D, a. BROWN AND a DARLING but now I leave all the ups and downs to my darling so I don't care one baht what happens to

the gbp vs bht.I have already upped my cider allowance for this yr.so lets hope its 54 by.oct.14.

[Naam]

Sterling strength has surprised almost everyone for quite some time now, its status as a safe haven currency has worked to its favour as the wrangling in Europe have continued and other conflicts have unwound.

i neither see Sterling strength nor a safe haven behaviour vs €UR. what i see is USD weakness (which causes the GBP strengthening vs THB) and over the last four years fluctuations but not a single penny appreciation vs €UR.

[chiang mai]

The brokerages and finance houses disagree with you, Citigroup and the FT for two:

However, against the EUR I have no idea, agreed however regarding USD.

"Sterling will be the global “safe haven” currency of 2014 as Britain’s strengthening economy makes it a magnet for inward investment, according to Citgroup".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10539579/Pound-will-be-safe-haven-currency-of-2014-says-Citigroup.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/bc21f1da-0af9-11e1-b62f-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fbc21f1da-0af9-11e1-b62f-00144feabdc0.html%3Fsiteedition%3Duk&siteedition=uk&_i_referer=

http://www.independent.ie/business/boost-for-irish-exporters-selling-to-uk-as-safe-haven-sterling-set-to-rise-29874243.html

Edited May 2, 2014 by chiang mai

[i claudius]

Sterling strength has surprised almost everyone for quite some time now, its status as a safe haven currency has worked to its favour as the wrangling in Europe have continued and other conflicts have unwound.

i neither see Sterling strength nor a safe haven behaviour vs €UR. what i see is USD weakness (which causes the GBP strengthening vs THB) and over the last four years fluctuations but not a single penny appreciation vs €UR.

The Euro ,isnt that the funny money they have in those countrys that keep sending their people to Britain to claim benifits in real money?

[Jip99]

Sterling strength has surprised almost everyone for quite some time now, its status as a safe haven currency has worked to its favour as the wrangling in Europe have continued and other conflicts have unwound.

i neither see Sterling strength nor a safe haven behaviour vs €UR. what i see is USD weakness (which causes the GBP strengthening vs THB) and over the last four years fluctuations but not a single penny appreciation vs €UR.

The Euro ,isnt that the funny money they have in those countrys that keep sending their people to Britain to claim benifits in real money?

... and then use Sterling to buy Euro to send home - thereby maintaining the 'value' of the Euro ..

[SheungWan]

Sterling strength has surprised almost everyone for quite some time now, its status as a safe haven currency has worked to its favour as the wrangling in Europe have continued and other conflicts have unwound.

i neither see Sterling strength nor a safe haven behaviour vs UR. what i see is USD weakness (which causes the GBP strengthening vs THB) and over the last four years fluctuations but not a single penny appreciation vs UR.

The Euro ,isnt that the funny money they have in those countrys that keep sending their people to Britain to claim benifits in real money?

Zero stats to support that but don't let it bother you.

[i claudius]

Sterling strength has surprised almost everyone for quite some time now, its status as a safe haven currency has worked to its favour as the wrangling in Europe have continued and other conflicts have unwound.

i neither see Sterling strength nor a safe haven behaviour vs UR. what i see is USD weakness (which causes the GBP strengthening vs THB) and over the last four years fluctuations but not a single penny appreciation vs UR.

The Euro ,isnt that the funny money they have in those countrys that keep sending their people to Britain to claim benifits in real money?

Zero stats to support that but don't let it bother you.

Well dont see a lot of Brits going to Poland ,romania , Portugal ect ,ect to work or claim benifits and beg ,so you have stats?

[Naam]

Sterling strength has surprised almost everyone for quite some time now, its status as a safe haven currency has worked to its favour as the wrangling in Europe have continued and other conflicts have unwound.

i neither see Sterling strength nor a safe haven behaviour vs €UR. what i see is USD weakness (which causes the GBP strengthening vs THB) and over the last four years fluctuations but not a single penny appreciation vs €UR.

The Euro ,isnt that the funny money they have in those countrys that keep sending their people to Britain to claim benifits in real money?

i'm sure you would like to own a huge heap of that funny €UR money. but please tell us which countries where the €UR is used are "sending" people to Britain.

you can't name a single one? i thought as much

[chiang mai]

My guess is that IC lost money in Spain, never mind!

[i claudius]

My guess is that IC lost money in Spain, never mind!

Last time i went to Spain was in my 20,s ,and certainly would not buy a place there .

[chiang mai]

.. and one year on?

[Naam]

Well dont see a lot of Brits going to Poland ,romania , Portugal ect ,ect to work or claim benifits and beg ,so you have stats?

Jeeze IC, do you want to discuss GBP/THB, the theme of the thread, or do you want to bash Europe and non anglophiles et al!

i did not claim that any Brits go to Poland, Romania or Portugal. therefore i don't need any stats to present. but i am waiting for you to present numbers how many Poles and Romanians claim 'benifits' in Britain and send EURos to their home countries.

Some 24,000 citizens of Romania and Bulgaria also arrived in the year to September 2013, nearly three times the 9,000 who arrived in the previous year, the Office for National Statistics said in a report. About 70% came to work, while 30% came to study.

Official figures for how many Romanians and Bulgarians have arrived since working restrictions were lifted on 1 January have yet to be released.

these must be the ones you meant who change £ to € to prop up the EUR, right?

[i claudius]

I see Naam is posting his usuall"quips" well i suppose nothing new there ,its all we get now . just hold onto the dream old chap ,the UK is coming out on top ,as we always do. the eurozone is a failed dream ,just proped up with loans to all the hangers on.

[Thai at Heart]

Just wait until GBP interest rates go up.

In the end, the baht was too strong at 46, and considering the political mess at 55 its about right. So, where does it go?

Depends on politics in Thailand which will sort itself out, and interest rates. Enjoy it while it lasts

[chiang mai]

I've read some credible articles recently suggesting that UK interest rates may not be increased for quite some time, simply, anything more than a half percent increase would push large numbers of mortgage holders over the edge and remember, this is a consumer led recovery.

I think the key to the future of the pair rests in the value of USD, when it starts to strengthen against GBP we'll begin to see a stronger Baht, if that coincides with an ending of the political uncertainty that could further add to its strength. The key question I think is how low will THB go before it reverses 55, 57 or something else entirely.

[fletchsmile]

Short term there's a good chance sterling could strengthen further against the dollar. Pushing above 1.70

On the other hand I think short term THB will also strengthen vs the baht decreasing towards 32. (Political events could easily send it in either direction though if something big happened)

So with both GBP and THB strengthening vs USD there may be a little upside, but the two could likely cancel out.

Long term I think GBP will weaken vs THB back to 50 and below.

All that said. I prefer to put myself in a position where I don't worry about it, by holding some of each (more THB than GBP) and am protected so that neither direction causes me problems.

Currencies are one of the hardest things to call short term, and I wouldn't like my financial health to depend on it moving either way

Cheers

Fletch

[Naam]

Long term I think GBP will weaken vs THB back to 50 and below.

blasphemists will be burned at the stake, quartered and then hung high Fletch!

[Naam]

Currencies are one of the hardest things to call short term

once Poland, Romania and Bulgaria switch from Zloty, Leu and Lev to €UR any forecasts of their currency vs. €UR will be rather easy.

[craigt3365]

Several off topic comments have been removed from view. Please stay on topic.

[Sandman77]

Why nobody open here a € baht discussion ?

So we allready have one for the pound please close this topic now, and let the uk nabours let's talk about there currency!