S & P warns Thailand of lower standing if instability deteriorates



BANGKOK: -- Standard & Poor's maintains Thailand's credit standing at stable but warns that it could lower it in case the country's political instability deteriorates beyond what was seen in recent years.

Based on a report by the Public Debt Management Office, S & P has given Thailand ratings of BBB+ and A-2 for its long-term and short-term foreign currency bonds.

The leading international credit rating firm said in its latest bulletin today that the dismissal of caretaker prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra by the Constitutional Court was one of a number of scenarios incorporated into the ratings — reflecting its expectations of protracted and potentially increasing political instability.

However, it views this development as credit negative as it raises the risk of violent confrontation that could ultimately involve the military, and will make any sort of rapprochement between the opposing sides of Thailand’s political divide more difficult.

S & P said forcing out Ms Yingluck is set to aggravate already-deep divisions in Thai society.

The dismissal follows months of often unlawful opposition efforts to unseat her and the nullification of an incomplete election that her ruling Pheu Thai party appeared to have won in February.

The leading credit rating firm said the court’s move is likely to reinforce the belief among the largely rural supporters of Ms Yingluck’s Phue Thai party that the judiciary is biased toward the establishment–made up of the urban elite, the military, and royalists.

“We believe the prime minister’s dismissal will also likely further delay fresh elections scheduled for July 20 and the formation of a functioning government.”

It said the country’s already weak business and consumer confidence will continue to deteriorate.

The longer the political uncertainty persists, the more damage it will inflict on Thailand’s already weakened growth outlook, it said.

S &P then noted that it could lower Thailand’s sovereign ratings if further political instability leads to an unexpectedly sharp deterioration of political and institutional stability beyond what was seen in recent years.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/s-p-warns-thailand-lower-standing-instability-deteriorates/


-- Thai PBS 2014-05-08

The leading credit rating firm said the court’s move is likely to reinforce the belief among the largely rural supporters of Ms Yingluck’s Phue Thai party that the judiciary is biased toward the establishment–made up of the urban elite, the military, and royalists.

pretty much sums up the domestic (and international) reaction to yesterdays judicial coup . sadly there are still a few left that just don't get it and are part of the problem, not the solution

Edited May 8, 201412 yr by moonao

If they love her so much, S & P should give a job to Ms Yingluck as CEO/Executive Managing Director (I've heard that she is jobless).

And in few weeks they will be renamed as "Standard & Poor Management"

Edited May 8, 201412 yr by MGP

i am sure mr Suthep will be having sleep less nights about this dreadfull news

OMG.....now we really ARE in trouble.

OMG.....now we really ARE in trouble.

Sorry to be pedantic, but if "instability deteriorates", doesn't that mean things are getting better...?!

OMG.....now we really ARE in trouble.

Not yet. They have just fired the courtessy warning shot, but don't worry, the down grade is coming. It is just a matter of how far the credit rating is lowered. My guess is two notches.

I'm gonna stop eating at S&P if they make anymore such threats.

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The leading credit rating firm said the court’s move is likely to reinforce the belief among the largely rural supporters of Ms Yingluck’s Phue Thai party that the judiciary is biased toward the establishment–made up of the urban elite, the military, and royalists.

pretty much sums up the domestic (and international) reaction to yesterdays judicial coup . sadly there are still a few left that just don't get it and are part of the problem, not the solution

Foreign investment will be pulling out by the droves but should help us get a better exchande rate .It will also take a bite out the super rich that are investested in the SET

I'm gonna stop eating at S&P if they make anymore such threats.

The waste line, pants seams and straining belt will undoubtedly breath a sigh of relief.

:spin:

If the instability deteriorates? Who are these people? It is already a nuclear meltdown. I really do not buy into either sides lies --and they are hateful lies at that -- but what does the 'free world' think they are doing?

What idiots, with degrees and supporting structures. Maybe buying degrees has the same force and effectiveness...,,

If they love her so much, S & P should give a job to Ms Yingluck as CEO/Executive Managing Director (I've heard that she is jobless).

And in few weeks they will be renamed as "Standard & Poor Management"

S&P are just saying what they think the poor up north will make of the decision. S&P aren't saying that they agree with what the poor think. Maybe some English comprehension lessons are in order.

This story regarding S&P's assessment of Thailand lends credence to the case that these ratings are rigged. What legitimate credit rating agency would have Thailand remain at its current peg? They have been protesting for six months in the streets of Bangkok, shootings, grenades, bombings and unexplained violence and murders. Hotels are claiming only 20-30% occupancy and the Thai press reports that surveys show that half the Thai university graduates will not obtain employment. Tourism with the exception of sex traffic is stumbling badly as reported in the Thai press.

The Thai south is in a constant state of terror with almost daily bombings and over 6,000 reported killed with no end in sight. Numerous reports and international news stories describe massive networks and trafficking in humans for sex and cheap slave labor in Thailand. Drugs are rampant and no top Thai gangsters are ever busted, vehicular homicide goes unpunished, killing of police officers without convictions has been reported a number of times, laws are broken with impunity and bought off.

Corruption is rampant, pervasive and known to everyone. There is no such thing as transparency. Legal elections are nullified by judges, and election commissions, and seditionists campaigning for bringing Thailand down. Editorials hypothesize revolution, and everyone speculates on military coups almost daily.

What legitimate international credit rating agency would tolerate Thailand today with out a multi-tier downgrade?

This story regarding S&P's assessment of Thailand lends credence to the case that these ratings are rigged. What legitimate credit rating agency would have Thailand remain at its current peg?

All of them? And all banks and finance houses? And all governments, regional and world? And the World Bank and IMF and the Asian Development Bank? And depositors? And stock exchange investors and gamblers alike? And all currency exchanges of all type? And all bond markets, worldwide? And every stakeholder in Thailand? And all businesses invested in Thailand?

That kind? I'd love to see your argument that all of these and more are illegitimate. I think Marx and Engels between them didn't quite handle that hard job.

S & P warns Thailand of lower standing if instability deteriorates

Perfectly acceptable scare-headline. It is equal in weight to

S & P confirms Thailand standing unchanged by current and threatened instability

And that is all S&P did is CONFIRM what all markets, all countries, all regions decided. It's actually a bit stupid to "warn" that "if things get worse we might change our minds". Well, yes. What in life does that not apply to? If Manchester United gets any worse, I won't be watching their future matches. If.

A headline that requires "if" is actually just sitting atop a scare story. Always.

:spin:

Except that it is not. Spin is when one or a small number of people/firms take a consensus and pick out one favorable angle that favours their own, contrary view. This, however, is overwhelming consensus, quite possibly unanimous in fact, from every involved market on the globe. You may hate this but there's no spin at all. It's just a compilation of all opinion from everywhere, and a case where everyone agrees, and as much as it pains all of us, many influential TV posters have simply been ignored.

There simply isn't anyone significant or any significant business or government or agency or NGO that disagrees. There simply is no one to spin it because everyone has signed on to the one, true truth.

And don't shoot the messenger. The story about Thailand's credit ratings doesn't depend on how smart I am and it doesn't fail because of how stupid I am. The story just *is*.

.

Edited May 9, 201412 yr by wandasloan

If the THB takes another dive from the internationally perceived state of emergency in Thailand I won't complain.