Is 'Teflon Thailand' finally losing its sheen?

[webfact]

Focus
Is 'Teflon Thailand' finally losing its sheen?
by Apilaporn VECHAKIJ

BANGKOK, May 16, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's once-vibrant economy is buckling under the strain of months of political turmoil that has paralysed government policy, scared off tourists and spooked foreign investors, analysts warn.

Long hailed as "Teflon Thailand" for its enviable record of economic resilience in the face of political upheaval, the fallout from a six-month crisis that has left 28 people dead and hundreds wounded is mounting.

Official statistics due for release on Monday are expected to show that the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014 from the previous quarter, and experts fear the poor performance will drag on until the deadlock is resolved.

"When there is no government, people lack confidence to spend and invest because they fear constant political chaos," said Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

"Also foreigners will not dare to travel to Thailand."

Thanavath said there was a high risk that the economy would shrink in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2014.
"It is possible that we will have neither a government nor prime minister throughout this year," he warned.

- Rudderless ship -

Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy has not had a fully functioning parliament or government since December, bringing major infrastructure projects to a halt and disrupting wider state spending.

Consumer confidence is at the lowest level in 12 years while foreign tourist arrivals have slumped and foreign investors are watching the saga unfold nervously.

International tourist arrivals were down by roughly eight and nine percent in February and March respectively from a year earlier, according to government figures, but have since shown signs of stabilising.

A grenade and gun attack on anti-government protesters in Bangkok on Thursday that left three people dead has added to fears that the unrest could spiral, with the coup-prone army warning that it might have to intervene to quell the violence.

Government supporters have warned of possible civil war if demonstrators achieve their goal of appointing an unelected premier following the recent removal of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra from office in a controversial court ruling.

Poll officials say a planned July 20 general election is now in jeopardy because of the risk of a repeat of the chaos seen in February when opposition demonstrators blocked voting.

Thailand's economic growth already slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2013, to just 0.6 percent year-on-year, from 2.7 percent in the previous quarter, according to official figures.

In March the Thai central bank reduced its official interest rate to the lowest level in three years to boost the stumbling economy.

The same month the Bank of Thailand cut its growth forecast for 2014 to 2.7 percent, after a 2.9 percent expansion in 2013.

- Stuck in the middle -

Fitch Ratings has warned that Thailand's "'BBB+" sovereign credit rating could be under threat if the deadlock continues through the second half of this year.

"Failure to establish a functioning government by mid-year would have a major impact on medium-term capital investment, consumer confidence and fiscal planning," it warned in a statement.

The crisis is delaying Thailand's escape from the low-investment "middle income trap" in which it has languished since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Fitch said.

Eight years of political turmoil, along with the destruction wrought by devastating 2011 floods, have raised fears that long-term investors such as Japanese carmakers could stop new investment, or even move production to other, more stable countries.

That would be a heavy setback for a country that has earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia" thanks to its status as a thriving regional auto manufacturing hub.

Thai car sales plunged nearly 46 percent in the first quarter of 2014 from a year earlier because of the weaker economy and the end of government subsidies for first-time buyers, according to an industry-wide survey by Toyota.

Experts say it appears unlikely there will be a functioning government in place in time to pass a 2015 budget within the next few months, delaying all non-essential state spending.

"It will take several months before we have a new government so by the time we have the new budget, it will be next year," said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political science professor at Bangkok's Thammasat University.

"Political calm will not come easily. The country will be polarised for quite a while," he said.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-05-16

[neverdie]

I kind of liken the current situation to that of a Depressurised plane at 40,000 feet, the pilots are hypoxic and the auto systems have malfunctioned, the passengers on board are blissfully unaware as the plane heads away from landform into the dark distant night. Sadly these situations rarely end positively.

Why are all these politicians being so reckless, clearly they must also be hypoxic. The chance of this flight landing safely have passed and it would appear there won't even be a call from the drivers to brace, as his eyes are far from the levers, the gauges and anything else that makes sense.

There are plenty of other examples of this occurring to countries around the world and none of them are pretty.

[timcthefilmguy]

--- earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia"

​ummm...I'm from Detroit. I don't think that is really an aspirational title at this point.

Edited May 16, 2014 by timcthefilmguy

[Gunna]

" Thai car sales plunged nearly 46 percent in the first quarter of 2014 from a year earlier because of the weaker economy and the end of government subsidies for first-time buyers, according to an industry-wide survey by Toyota.

And the idiots at PTP introduced this scam ( mainly to buy more votes ) even though they were told of it's consequences

eg a collapse in car sales the following year, massive numbers of defaults on car loans, a huge tax burden.

[chainarong]

Are the hard yards are behind or are they in front , either way they have all made their bed, now lay in it, every action causes a re- action ,so if protesters have taken over buildings and streets , if hand grenades are bursting your ear drums ,bullets parting your hair line, then it will in due course slow down the tourists and investment sectors, one only hopes that all this is not in vain and Thailand comes out of this upheaval with a stronger out look and a better type of politician , one thing in its favour giving Thaskin Shinawatra the flick, will do Thailand no harm what so ever.

[Jack Mountain]

The story about the stabbed ice delivery man is still on ice it seems ... not important?

[Thai at Heart]

I am not so sure. It has been written a hundred times that THailand was going to fall on its face. Basically, domestic spending has ground to a halt, but that can be resurrected very quickly. I do, however, laugh at everyone who stated that if the baht magically lost value that exports would magically go through this enormous spurt. Absolute bunkum.

So here they are. they have a reduced value for their money, oil and gas is rising massively and exports didn't jump because the reduced baht pushed up inputs for production.

[unanimosity]

--- earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia"

​ummm...I'm from Detroit. I don't think that is really an aspirational title at this point.

Maybe it has more to do with the call to prayer loudspeakers ringing in the streets and push for sharia law like Detroit.

[zydeco]

--- earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia"

​ummm...I'm from Detroit. I don't think that is really an aspirational title at this point.

OTOH, Detroit is bankrupt, its government was arrested for embezzlement, if I remember correctly (maybe not), and the authorities had to step in to restore order. Yep, Thailand could be the Detroit of SE Asia.

[unanimosity]

What the 7734 does Teflon have to do with sheen? Nothing, unless you think a primered '49 Ford is shiny. Teflon has to do with nothing sticks, e.g., human trafficking, murder charges on former PM & assistant, tourist death perps, etc.

[joshstiles]

--- earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia"

​ummm...I'm from Detroit. I don't think that is really an aspirational title at this point.

...I'm from Detroit too......Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand

[winstonc]

--- earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia"

​ummm...I'm from Detroit. I don't think that is really an aspirational title at this point.

...I'm from Detroit too......Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand

which begs the question why are you here..or arent you..sir..???

[Benmart]

--- earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia"

​ummm...I'm from Detroit. I don't think that is really an aspirational title at this point.

...I'm from Detroit too......Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand

which begs the question why are you here..or arent you..sir..???

His comparison with Detroit and Thailand seems to be based on his experience.

Most of us expats, I believe, are from elsewhere. Why he is here or not is not? It could be work, school, business, etc. It's not my business.

I would have liked him to expand on why Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand, but then I could probably think of 100 Thai political types that don't live in Detroit which would answer that question.

[rickirs]

One of Suthep's reforms is to move Thailand away from a capitalistic economy because it's too easily manipulated to "buy" off voters. He never said what he would replace it with but probably more with a "people's" controlled economy, ie., price fixing, rationing, etc. much like Venzuela's economic policies. With such a move Thailand will not only lose its sheen, it will wilt like an unwatered orchard.

[Alwyn]

--- earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia"

​ummm...I'm from Detroit. I don't think that is really an aspirational title at this point.

...I'm from Detroit too......Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand

Yet here you are in Thailand...

[DrTuner]

I think the case is, foreign press have now taken an interest in Thailand, which mostly produces negative articles. These tend to snowball and the positive PR by Thai government..well there is no government, is there.

So it's going to grow and is likely to make a permanent dent in the image of the country. Simply because of the search technologies already available to every one will remember and make everything accessible. Computers don't forget.

[Thai at Heart]

I think the case is, foreign press have now taken an interest in Thailand, which mostly produces negative articles. These tend to snowball and the positive PR by Thai government..well there is no government, is there.

So it's going to grow and is likely to make a permanent dent in the image of the country. Simply because of the search technologies already available to every one will remember and make everything accessible. Computers don't forget.

To 99.9% of the western world, Thailand is beaches and hoo****s.

For the few that are involved in or have responsibility for businesses here, there is little or no way to put any positive spin on what has been going on for the last 5 years.

Thailand must just middle through.

[DrTuner]

I think the case is, foreign press have now taken an interest in Thailand, which mostly produces negative articles. These tend to snowball and the positive PR by Thai government..well there is no government, is there.

So it's going to grow and is likely to make a permanent dent in the image of the country. Simply because of the search technologies already available to every one will remember and make everything accessible. Computers don't forget.

To 99.9% of the western world, Thailand is beaches and hoo****s.

For the few that are involved in or have responsibility for businesses here, there is little or no way to put any positive spin on what has been going on for the last 5 years.

Thailand must just middle through.

Was, yeah. But I do follow the newspapers in my country of origin (Finland) and they are covering the political conflict from time to time. It is slowly penetrating the beach&ho's theme.

You know like before it was "make sure you wear a condom" when you went for a holiday, now it's "be careful and avoid the grenades"

And talking about google .. guess what site and what writings come on the top when you look for info about Thailand. Yep, Hello World!

Edited May 16, 2014 by DrTuner

[3NUMBAS]

offer a thai a green card for detroit and they would be on the first plane available ,its a land of milk and honey

[jennywren]

One of Suthep's reforms is to move Thailand away from a capitalistic economy because it's too easily manipulated to "buy" off voters. He never said what he would replace it with but probably more with a "people's" controlled economy, ie., price fixing, rationing, etc. much like Venzuela's economic policies. With such a move Thailand will not only lose its sheen, it will wilt like an unwatered orchard.

Can;t deny it Thailand really prospered under Shin Governments didn't it!!! I sure as hell don't see as many poor people around as back in the mid 90's

Shrinking economy now PDRC and their allies have sidelined the Government just highlights this.

[anteater]

Thailand is going down because it can't escape its quasi-feudal past.

What a contrast with India, where the results of the election were announced today. India takes democracy seriously, and although there are huge issues of corruption, vote-buying and other problems, democracy is flourishing there. The BJP stood against the Congress Party (which has been in power for decades) and won, and the Congress leaders then congratulated the BJP. Very civilised.

Not like in Thailand where the ammart (who have never been kicked out - unlike the British colonialists in India) just do not believe in democracy - least of all if it involves the 'ignorant buffalos' of Isaan having an equal vote.

This country is in a total mess because, while it claims to be a democracy, the real leaders behind the scenes (the ammart and the "Democrat Party") do not even understand democracy - because it is utterly alien to their elitist viewpoint, whereby they (the Bangkok elite) are better than those "country people".

It will all end badly, I fear.

PS. What makes India's achievement even more impressive is that the country has been dominated by caste hierarchy for centuries - that being perhaps the most rigid system of social stratification the world has ever seen. Yet they have managed to leap out of that mind-set (to a great extent) and nowadays adhere faithfully and enthusiastically to "one man one vote". There's a lesson there for Thailand, but it won't be learned - by the buffalo ammart.

Edited May 16, 2014 by anteater

[MJP]

One of Suthep's reforms is to move Thailand away from a capitalistic economy because it's too easily manipulated to "buy" off voters. He never said what he would replace it with but probably more with a "people's" controlled economy, ie., price fixing, rationing, etc. much like Venzuela's economic policies. With such a move Thailand will not only lose its sheen, it will wilt like an unwatered orchard.

Can;t deny it Thailand really prospered under Shin Governments didn't it!!! I sure as hell don't see as many poor people around as back in the mid 90's

Shrinking economy now PDRC and their allies have sidelined the Government just highlights this.

In fairness, Thaksin was in power during the biggest global credit bubble in history. Lot of money everywhere.

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Thai at Heart]

Thailand is going down because it can't escape its quasi-feudal past.

What a contrast with India, where the results of the election were announced today. India takes democracy seriously, and although there are huge issues of corruption, vote-buying and other problems, democracy is flourishing there. The BJP stood against the Congress Party (which has been in power for decades) and won, and the Congress leaders then congratulated the BJP. Very civilised.

Not like in Thailand where the ammart (who have never been kicked out - unlike the British colonialists in India) just do not believe in democracy - least of all if it involves the 'ignorant buffalos' of Isaan having an equal vote.

This country is in a total mess because, while it claims to be a democracy, the real leaders behind the scenes (the ammart and the "Democrat Party") do not even understand democracy - because it is utterly alien to their elitist viewpoint, whereby they (the Bangkok elite) are better than those "country people".

It will all end badly, I fear.

PS. What makes India's achievement even more impressive is that the country has been dominated by caste hierarchy for centuries - that being perhaps the most rigid system of social stratification the world has ever seen. Yet they have managed to leap out of that mind-set (to a great extent) and nowadays adhere faithfully and enthusiastically to "one man one vote". There's a lesson there for Thailand, but it won't be learned - by the buffalo ammart.

Its these infernal family companies.that are the problem. They spend half their time preventing new entrants into their business.

They are busy surviving when new businesses could be being created. They are the condom on the prick of progress.

[lucjoker]

Around me ,it is business as usual,

i don't see factories closed ,nor shops closed,nor building sites abandoned............because of the political unrest.

Those politicians never did anything to improve business ,so now that they are paralyzed it even better.

Car sales drop ? What do you expect ? By now almost every Thai , who could borrow money,has bought a car (and a house).

So for the next 5 years (or longer) they can not borrow anymore .

Also the bath dropped 30%,good for us farangs .

Ask the Thai people about politicians .................pff all snakes ,we not think about them.

[MrY]

...I'm from Detroit too......Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand

which begs the question why are you here..or arent you..sir..???

...I'm from Detroit too......Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand

Yet here you are in Thailand...

Not a single f***ing line of criticism can be posted here without s*** like this.

As useful as this forum is for information, it makes sifting through these pages much less pleasant.

[belg]

detroit, yes, gangs, stabbings, murders, corruption

they deserve that name

[Thai at Heart]

quote name="MrY" post="7835779" timestamp="1400294060"]

...I'm from Detroit too......Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand

which begs the question why are you here..or arent you..sir..???

...I'm from Detroit too......Detroit is 100 times better than Thailand

Yet here you are in Thailand...

Not a single f***ing line of criticism can be posted here without s*** like this.

As useful as this forum is for information, it makes sifting through these pages much less pleasant.

Indeed, it is a ridiculous point. Could you imagine charity workers or humanitarian aid workers taking the same attitude.

The place is such a mess we won't go to help. The statement up top suggests we should all park our brain at immigration and put on rose tintee specs and live with our head in the clouds.

Actually rather insulting to the local.populous I think.

[gtm2k]

Its just appalling to see that nobody, absolutely nobody has a clear mandate of "what to do" , with any measure of absolute written on it.

I will complete 10years in Thialand this October, and not even once i've felt / seen / heard any "long term vision" from any administration in power (all these years).

Question of the hour : where does it leave expats like us , can we continue to drag on ? Or, does it mean that its time to move on somewhere where folks at least stick to some sort of planning every 5 years ?

[culicine]

Its just appalling to see that nobody, absolutely nobody has a clear mandate of "what to do" , with any measure of absolute written on it.

I will complete 10years in Thialand this October, and not even once i've felt / seen / heard any "long term vision" from any administration in power (all these years).

Question of the hour : where does it leave expats like us , can we continue to drag on ? Or, does it mean that its time to move on somewhere where folks at least stick to some sort of planning every 5 years ?

It's the Buddhist way... just live for the moment. Don't dwell on the past as you can't change it; no need too plan for the future because we can't predict it.

[swissie]

Its just appalling to see that nobody, absolutely nobody has a clear mandate of "what to do" , with any measure of absolute written on it.

I will complete 10years in Thialand this October, and not even once i've felt / seen / heard any "long term vision" from any administration in power (all these years).

Question of the hour : where does it leave expats like us , can we continue to drag on ? Or, does it mean that its time to move on somewhere where folks at least stick to some sort of planning every 5 years ?

Question of the hour : where does it leave expats like us

Unless Farang is in the possession of an "Investor-Visa" we all hop from one yearly extension to the next. If a future government decides that Expats are not welcome anymore (only quality Tourists), we are out in a years time. Leaving behind all we have invested. Emotionally and financially.

Investors Paradise.Is it not ?

Cheers.