Q&A on Thai military's surprise intervention

[webfact]

Q&A on Thai military's surprise intervention

BANGKOK, May 20, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's military unexpectedly declared martial law on Tuesday to restore order following months of political turmoil -- a move some observers described as a "de facto coup".

Here are answers to some key questions on the surprise move:

What are the roots of the crisis?
The kingdom has been wracked for years by a deep political divide between mostly rural, working class supporters of now-exiled populist former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and a royalist urban middle class and elite who loathe him.

The festering discord escalated in recent months into a full-blown political crisis in which opposition protests against a Thaksin-aligned government left 28 people dead, hundreds wounded and caused legislative paralysis.

The situation deteriorated earlier this month when a controversial court ruling removed prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra -- Thaksin's sister -- and nine of her ministers from office, seriously weakening the administration.

Opposition protesters are demanding the installation of an unelected government to oversee vague reforms to tackle corruption and curb Thaksin's influence, while the government's so-called "Red Shirt" supporters have warned of civil war if the government is replaced.

Is this a coup?
The military's takeover of television stations, sudden announcement to the nation and deployment of troops in Bangkok revived memories of a military coup in 2006 that ousted Thaksin.

New York-based Human Rights Watch branded the imposition of martial law a "de facto coup", voicing alarm at the impact of censorship on freedom of expression.

While the declaration of martial law gives the military wide powers, the embattled government remains officially in power, though its authority has been eroded.

Political observers are split on what lies ahead, noting that the situation remains fluid and unpredictable and much depends on what happens in coming days.

"I think what we are looking at is a prelude to a coup. That is for sure," Pavin Chachavalpongpun of Kyoto University's Centre for Southeast Asian Studies.

"It is all part of a plot to create a situation of ungovernability to legitimise this move by the army."

But Gavan Butler of the University of Sydney said he believes the military acted merely out of a desire to maintain order and that there were remained hope that possible fresh elections in July could be held.

"I believe the army's actions are simply about maintaining order. They have been loathe to take a more coup-like stance for months now and they still appear very reticent and I doubt they want to take it further," Butler said, adding that the situation remained "murky and messy."

What happens next?
Much now depends on whether the military or other forces move to replace the government, currently headed by new Prime Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan.

Possible options include the appointment of an unelected interim premier -- which the opposition protesters are demanding -- to run the country until fresh polls are held at some point in the future.

However, the "Red Shirts" have warned that replacing the government with an unelected leadership could cross a red line that triggers civil war.
So far, their reaction to the martial law declaration has been muted, and they have not branded it a coup attempt.

Thailand's military unexpectedly declared martial law on Tuesday to restore order following months of political turmoil -- a move some observers described as a "de facto coup".

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-05-20

[moonao]

the real answers will be revealed in the days and weeks to follow.

personally, I don't trust the military.

[RockyBeerbelly]

Main question remains....why announce this at 3AM and annoy the crap out of anyone who went into town by car this morning. Couldn't they have chosen a better time so that people could take precautions.....or is it maybe something else???

Anyone???

[gemini81]

the real answers will be revealed in the days and weeks to follow.

personally, I don't trust the military.

Easier to trust than PTP.

[Mister Fixit]

Announced at 3 am when no-one is about to hear.

All TV and radio are under Army control.

They have blockaded Thaicom on Rattanathibet Road (I've seen it).

They insist all media report any Army announcements forthwith.

Protesters must stay in their respective camps and are not allowed to leave.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it must be a coup duck ...

Edited May 20, 2014 by Mister Fixit

[Mister Fixit]

the real answers will be revealed in the days and weeks to follow.

personally, I don't trust the military.

Easier to trust than PTP.

For sure.

Slippery bunch of eels ...

[Fat Haggis]

What do you mean get the reforms started?

They should be well under way they've had 7 months to know the plan for what these reforms should be so really these reforms everyone keeps harping on about should be more or less done and dusted by the end if the year, all that's needed then is a referendum to let the electorate decide if these reforms should be passed by law.

But I'm willing to bet there are no reforms in any shape or form that will not take 12-16 months to structure from the minute whoever takes control of the country, unless the military now press the EC to hold elections within the next 2 months, as they are now obligated to provide the security of the electorate! There will be no blocking of polling stations , no disruptions etc.

But the cynic in me says it's not going to happen, the anti government protestors keep stating they are speaking in behalf if the majority of the country and claim they have the support of the majority, well if that really is the case, then let the elections run un impeded, stop bleating about vote buying as it makes NO difference if you allegedly have the majority! you will win, on the other hand, Thais don't care about self serving politicians who are not going to make any difference to their lives, so a cash incentive is more appealing to them! The majority means nothing till the votes are counted! And Thais change their minds and opinions all the time.

The military need to have a defined plan that will appeal to both sides or it will be 2010 all over again, and for those people who keep stating "bring on the reds, they will get smashed" havent got a clue, if you seriously think they haven't learnt from 2010?

I hope cool heads prevail, and there isn't going to be bloodshed, everything is now well and truly in the Generals hands, all the Thai people can do now is wait and see.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[FangFerang]

Main question remains....why announce this at 3AM and annoy the crap out of anyone who went into town by car this morning. Couldn't they have chosen a better time so that people could take precautions.....or is it maybe something else???

Anyone???

Hi. I usually do not speculate. I am a scientist, and am happy not knowing everything. Grateful, actually.

I strongly suspect, gut feeling only, that something very bad was going to happen. Maybe 'third hands' or 'fourth hands' or either side -- or both. There are anecdotal indications of this -- M16's being shipped to Bangkok, and other ripples in the pond like both sides making mass rallies WAY too close to each other.

Despite the fact that ferang here laugh at Thais, they do have information networks that are social and usually very accurate. Sometimes the old lady next door gives me the news before it is published.

I think the General put his boot down because there was going to be bloodshed.

As I said, this is speculation -- but it is, I think, a reasonable one.

[Totster]

Q&A on Thai military's surprise intervention

errmmm.. surprise ?

totster

[Fat Haggis]

Why was there a concern over these M16's when the PDRC have had assault rifles for months in Bangkok ?

when you talk about shipments are you talking in the hundreds here? And if so , can you provide links to these shipments that have been seized?

If your talking about a couple go assault weapons in a car, that's nothing I the grand scheme of things , considering Army personnel have already been caught with assault weapons and vast amounts of ammo within Bangkok.

So I seriously doubt that the military acted over a couple of M16's seized in Chiangmai area

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Thait Spot]

The streets are safer.

Ko Tee has fled

The 2 camps are coralled in away from each other.

The government enterprises are likely to call off their proposed strikes

Suthep has stopped harassing the hangers on and called off his march..

The man on the Morchit omnibus is happier

The PTP is happy that the army did what Thaksin's cousin Surapong requested

The only grumps are the red underpants boys on TV

Can't keep everybody happy I guess

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[focus27]

The article fails to answer the main question: why now?

I suspect 2 things: the proposed strike that is (was to be) only 2 days away; the subsequent mass of people on the streets of both colours, thereby swelling the numbers in both camps, and the threat of the redshirts to march on Bangkok for a showdown.

The army has taken the wind out of both sails - I suspect the physical danger of confrontations overrode any political dangers.

As always, stay tuned for the next episode.

[Rimmer]

An inflammatory post and quoted reply has been removed

[Scamper]

Prayuth acted at the right time. Yesterday Niwattumrong affirmed to the Senate that he wouldn't step down. In two days, a massive strike was planned, and one was never sure of the response of the UDD as Jatuporn ratcheted up his rhetoric and baiting considerably. It was the right time because a state of legislative paralysis had truly taken hold. There hadn't been a fully functioning administration with the power of the purse since December 6 ( although it wasn't doing particularly well even then ) and there was no sure path to an election as there were open doubts that Niwattumrong had constitutional legitimacy, or if a postponement clause could be included, or if indeed the election could be peacefully held with a resulting quorum with the participation of the Democratic party very much in doubt, and the PDRC firmly opposed. So it was the right time, because that's called a stalemate.

But the effects of the intervention have been far greater than one could reasonably have anticipated. They include :

Jatuporn and his UDD rally have been surrounded and contained. The PDRC has called off its march. There has been an official call to disband the gatherings and a very firm stance of intolerance to the slightest outbreak of violence. There is safety and security on the streets of Bangkok. And first and foremost, the Senate, the Constitutional Court, the National Anti-Corruption Commission and all levels of the judiciary and independent agencies can now proceed peacefully, constitutionally, and without provocation. It's a remarkable change. The stage is now set for the Senate, and what will certainly be a fully functioning administration. What has tipped the scales so strongly in recent weeks particularly was the growing realization that the country - any country - could not indefinitely run without a fully functional administration. And contrary to many's belief, the Senate will certainly choose someone who is acceptable to both Pheu Thai and the Democratic party. The administration will likely have limited powers, but it will be able to run the country while truly genuine discussions among all the parties can take place regarding reform. It's a far more positive outcome than one could have hoped.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Scamper

[tingtongfarang]

What do you mean get the reforms started?

They should be well under way they've had 7 months to know the plan for what these reforms should be so really these reforms everyone keeps harping on about should be more or less done and dusted by the end if the year, all that's needed then is a referendum to let the electorate decide if these reforms should be passed by law.

But I'm willing to bet there are no reforms in any shape or form that will not take 12-16 months to structure from the minute whoever takes control of the country, unless the military now press the EC to hold elections within the next 2 months, as they are now obligated to provide the security of the electorate! There will be no blocking of polling stations , no disruptions etc.

But the cynic in me says it's not going to happen, the anti government protestors keep stating they are speaking in behalf if the majority of the country and claim they have the support of the majority, well if that really is the case, then let the elections run un impeded, stop bleating about vote buying as it makes NO difference if you allegedly have the majority! you will win, on the other hand, Thais don't care about self serving politicians who are not going to make any difference to their lives, so a cash incentive is more appealing to them! The majority means nothing till the votes are counted! And Thais change their minds and opinions all the time.

The military need to have a defined plan that will appeal to both sides or it will be 2010 all over again, and for those people who keep stating "bring on the reds, they will get smashed" havent got a clue, if you seriously think they haven't learnt from 2010?

I hope cool heads prevail, and there isn't going to be bloodshed, everything is now well and truly in the Generals hands, all the Thai people can do now is wait and see.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Reforms before elections seems 100% logical, why are thaksin supporters so afraid of this?

Edited May 20, 2014 by tingtongfarang

[tezzainoz]

Why was there a concern over these M16's when the PDRC have had assault rifles for months in Bangkok ?

when you talk about shipments are you talking in the hundreds here? And if so , can you provide links to these shipments that have been seized?

If your talking about a couple go assault weapons in a car, that's nothing I the grand scheme of things , considering Army personnel have already been caught with assault weapons and vast amounts of ammo within Bangkok.

So I seriously doubt that the military acted over a couple of M16's seized in Chiangmai area

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

seems you have no idea how the Thai mind works

you need to marry a Thai and get educated

this statement comes from the Thai grapevine

the most efficient system of communication in Thailand

A friend of mine told me his best mate spent a couple of hours with a young lady in soi 21 before returning back home

4 hrs later his wife picked him up at the Udon Thani airport and she knew all about it.

so once this rumour starts by the next day it is all over the North east and if a Thai lady tells you something it must be the truth

This is our beloved Thailand

and Farlang who has married a Thai will tell you, bend with the wind my friend

if you fight it it will break you

[chotthee]

What about calling a curfew after 2am (after the bar close please).

[smutcakes]

What do you mean get the reforms started?

They should be well under way they've had 7 months to know the plan for what these reforms should be so really these reforms everyone keeps harping on about should be more or less done and dusted by the end if the year, all that's needed then is a referendum to let the electorate decide if these reforms should be passed by law.

But I'm willing to bet there are no reforms in any shape or form that will not take 12-16 months to structure from the minute whoever takes control of the country, unless the military now press the EC to hold elections within the next 2 months, as they are now obligated to provide the security of the electorate! There will be no blocking of polling stations , no disruptions etc.

But the cynic in me says it's not going to happen, the anti government protestors keep stating they are speaking in behalf if the majority of the country and claim they have the support of the majority, well if that really is the case, then let the elections run un impeded, stop bleating about vote buying as it makes NO difference if you allegedly have the majority! you will win, on the other hand, Thais don't care about self serving politicians who are not going to make any difference to their lives, so a cash incentive is more appealing to them! The majority means nothing till the votes are counted! And Thais change their minds and opinions all the time.

The military need to have a defined plan that will appeal to both sides or it will be 2010 all over again, and for those people who keep stating "bring on the reds, they will get smashed" havent got a clue, if you seriously think they haven't learnt from 2010?

I hope cool heads prevail, and there isn't going to be bloodshed, everything is now well and truly in the Generals hands, all the Thai people can do now is wait and see.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

They need to set up reform Committee to study these changes which will of course take time (think 5-10 years)

Then independent bodies (ie elected by themselves and their 'elected' friends like the NACC etc) will have veto/power over everything.

Then the population will be allowed to vote again, but God forbid anyone vote against friends aligned to the elected bodies.

[tezzainoz]

Prayuth acted at the right time. Yesterday Niwattumrong affirmed to the Senate that he wouldn't step down. In two days, a massive strike was planned, and one was never sure of the response of the UDD as Jatuporn ratcheted up his rhetoric and baiting considerably. It was the right time because a state of legislative paralysis had truly taken hold. There hadn't been a fully functioning administration with the power of the purse since December 6 ( although it wasn't doing particularly well even then ) and there was no sure path to an election as there were open doubts that Niwattumrong had constitutional legitimacy, or if a postponement clause could be included, or if indeed the election could be peacefully held with a resulting quorum with the participation of the Democratic party very much in doubt, and the PDRC firmly opposed. So it was the right time, because that's called a stalemate.

But the effects of the intervention have been far greater than one could reasonably have anticipated. They include :

Jatuporn and his UDD rally have been surrounded and contained. The PDRC has called off its march. There has been an official call to disband the gatherings and a very firm stance of intolerance to the slightest outbreak of violence. There is safety and security on the streets of Bangkok. And first and foremost, the Senate, the Constitutional Court, the National Anti-Corruption Commission and all levels of the judiciary and independent agencies can now proceed peacefully, constitutionally, and without provocation. It's a remarkable change. The stage is now set for the Senate, and what will certainly be a fully functioning administration. What has tipped the scales so strongly in recent weeks particularly was the growing realization that the country - any country - could not indefinitely run without a fully functional administration. And contrary to many's belief, the Senate will certainly choose someone who is acceptable to both Pheu Thai and the Democratic party. The administration will likely have limited powers, but it will be able to run the country while truly genuine discussions among all the parties can take place regarding reform. It's a far more positive outcome than one could have hoped.

As usual a very good posting

Now if only the hard noses posters can get this by their ears

and let these words work there way around the mental matter

[Fat Haggis]

Give it a break scamper your one sided blinkered views and opinions are becoming tedious and repetitive, as much as I still find the contents informative at times.

You have failed to point out that the PDRC was going to hunt down the remaining caretaker cabinet ministers and "persuade " them to resign, that in itself is a fairly aggressive move, it's called intimidation which BOTH sides are equally as guilty, but it seems more acceptable if you're swallowing Suthep's words every single day, BOTH sides have been pushing buttons, and Prayuth acted, and rightly so, but the International media coverage has been less than complimentary over today's events, and as much as you think you're important, you're not, not even remotely, the International media cares not a jot what you,or I or anyone else here on TVF thing, why? Because this is for the Thais to sort out, not us opinionated farangs.

I couldn't care less for the PTP, I couldn't care less for the PDRC either, I couldn't care less if there was a full blown coup, as I don't matter to the Thais apart from my immediate family, this is a situation for the Thai people to resolve, harping on and on about senates and constitutions is pointless, as the average Thai from outside of Bangkok hasn't a clue about how either work, and they simply don't care either.

If Prayuth does a u-turn and let's the senate appoint who Suthep's wishes to run the country, then it's not going to look too great for him, or Thailand overall. I'm all for the military controlling the country for the rest of the year, and that gives both sides a chance or put their reforms on the table, 7 months down the line, if the PDRC don't have a mandate and a draft reformation plan ready to drop on the table, well sorry, they don't deserves to have a say, and same with the UDD/PTP.

All sides and all parties need to get their acts together now, not tomorrow, not next week, not next month, but now, there's no excuse for not having a starting point after 7 months of protests.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Fat Haggis]

Tezza, With all due respect, being married to a Thai woman hardly lends any credibility to what you posted.

I've found Thai women are prone to exaggeration just like Western women, they're hardly clairvoyant, if anything I've found them to be less than forthcoming with the truth, they throw temper tantrums over the slightest things, they're insecure, it's their way or no way... Hmmmmm, yeah they're NO different to Western women at all..

So please, you don't have to be married to a Thai woman, to know what's going on at the ground level, what about all the gay couples, who don't fit into your statement that you need to be married to a Thai woman to understand!!

I'm quite capable of understanding what's going on without having to be spooned what they want you to know, by my Thai wife, who incidentally hates talking about politics! ...

That's why I've stated many a time, our Farang opinions mean Jack shit to the vast majority of closed minded Thais

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[tezzainoz]

Tezza, With all due respect, being married to a Thai woman hardly lends any credibility to what you posted.

I've found Thai women are prone to exaggeration just like Western women, they're hardly clairvoyant, if anything I've found them to be less than forthcoming with the truth, they throw temper tantrums over the slightest things, they're insecure, it's their way or no way... Hmmmmm, yeah they're NO different to Western women at all..

So please, you don't have to be married to a Thai woman, to know what's going on at the ground level, what about all the gay couples, who don't fit into your statement that you need to be married to a Thai woman to understand!!

I'm quite capable of understanding what's going on without having to be spooned what they want you to know, by my Thai wife, who incidentally hates talking about politics! ...

That's why I've stated many a time, our Farang opinions mean Jack shit to the vast majority of closed minded Thais

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Your post I found interesting

Because I not disagree with anything you said

so you preaching to the converted

If you go back to my posting you will see I was only pointing out how quick the Thai grape vine works

and the other fact you must already have learnt

If your thai wife hears it from another Thai girl it must be fact

i

[peterquixote]

I can not see the army resolving my financial crisis.

That is having to pay for my destitute father in Law Rice farmer in Isaan.

pay here.

Many people repeat that we farangs have little or no relevance in the Thai Politic.

That's right pay money and much of your life for your Isaan wife and her fathers family.

Keep paying and have no opinion. Often now I wish I never came near Thailand.

Every few weeks my poverty is increased by their needs.

to Scamper : You get hammered pal because you put things down so cleanly and tidily,

and that infuriates the redshirts.

Havn't seen that bird brain stuttering parrot around for a few days

[englishoak]

Hands up everyone who thinks Thailands political groups will come together and kumbaya a resolution, then in their new found wisdom work towards turning the country and its image around for all to gasp at in awe of the brilliance and exceptionalism its world famous for ....

[beautifulthailand99]

Discussing Thai politics intelligently in Thailand is like fighting blindfolded, your hands tied behind your back and you're facing the wrong way - can't be done - a chess board with the major pieces missing.

[Nautilus05]

I love it. "This is not a coup, we're just taking over control over the country for the time being, without notice or warning".

Of course it's a coup. How else would you describe it? Monday night all the politicans went to sleep, and when they woke up the next morning, they found out they lost all their power and the military has assumed control of the country, and moved soldiers into various locations. I don't know about anyone else, but that sure seems like a coup to me. They just can't call it that, due to the international backlash it would bring.

It's not like the military is going to hand back control of the government next week. They'll be in power at least for the next 6 - 12 months, which is fine. Last time military was in power they actually did a great job to restore peace, and settle the tensions, while letting business run as usual.