Military Law Money And maybe baht Crash

[thailiketoo]

I am in Thailand And i read The newspaper on saturday in a Café in chiang Mai in The categorie business of Bangkok post

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Read Thai Visa posting rules about the Bangkok Post. Es ist verboten.

[quidnunc]

I am in Thailand And i read The newspaper on saturday in a Café in chiang Mai in The categorie business of Bangkok post

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Read Thai Visa posting rules about the Bangkok Post. Es ist verboten.

It's not verboten to mention the Bangkok post or paraphrase information from there. You just can't quote it or link to it.

[Tywais]

I am in Thailand And i read The newspaper on saturday in a Café in chiang Mai in The categorie business of Bangkok post

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Read Thai Visa posting rules about the Bangkok Post. Es ist verboten.

It's not verboten to mention the Bangkok post or paraphrase information from there. You just can't quote it or link to it.

Correct.

[thailiketoo]

43 percent of The Economics in Thailand Are in construction And buildings. But for who? WHO will buy those buildings in The end?

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

The industrial and service sectors are the main sectors in the Thai gross domestic product, with the former accounting for 39.2 percent of GDP. Thailand's agricultural sector produces 8.4 percent of the GDP – lower than the trade and logistics and communication sectors, which account for 13.4 percent and 9.8 percent of GDP respectively. The construction and mining sector adds 4.3 percent to the country’s gross domestic product.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

[northernjohn]

Dont Unverstand what you mean. My english is Not so Good

I am German

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Thai Visa can not quote the Bangkok Post. So nothing you say can be checked. So it is not true because it can't be verified.

While I think it is wrong I also know it can be checked if you want to go to the Bangkok post website.

I would suggest you check it there if it is that important to you.

I believe their is some truth in it but nothing permanent just a temporary thing.

For myself it is not that big of a deal. There is bound to be some down side for a short period of time but soon the people investing in Thailand will see that their money is safer than ever before unless they were depending on the corruption to get it.

[dave2]

re

lots of local interest - stuff about Chiang Mai.

a selfie with soldiers ? ... they wouldnt

dave2

[thailiketoo]

Dont Unverstand what you mean. My english is Not so Good

I am German

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Thai Visa can not quote the Bangkok Post. So nothing you say can be checked. So it is not true because it can't be verified.

While I think it is wrong I also know it can be checked if you want to go to the Bangkok post website.

I would suggest you check it there if it is that important to you.

I believe their is some truth in it but nothing permanent just a temporary thing.

For myself it is not that big of a deal. There is bound to be some down side for a short period of time but soon the people investing in Thailand will see that their money is safer than ever before unless they were depending on the corruption to get it.

Did you try and check it? Can't. Construction is 4.3% not 43% as the poster quoted. 4 and 40 percent is a big deal.

[chiang mai]

Structure of the Economy in 2013

Sector

GDP by Sector (%)

Labour force by sector (%)

Manufacturing

38.1

13.8

Wholesale and Retail Trade

13.4

15.3

Transport, Storage and communication

10.2

2.7

Agricuture

8.3

39.1

Construction and Mining

4.3

6.6

Other services *

25.7

22.5

Note* Other services include financial sector, education, hotels and restaurants, etc.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/EconomicConditions/Thai/genecon/Pages/Thailand_Glance.aspx

Edited May 28, 2014 by chiang mai

[northernjohn]

Structure of the Economy in 2013

Sector

GDP by Sector (%)

Labour force by sector (%)

Manufacturing

38.1

13.8

Wholesale and Retail Trade

13.4

15.3

Transport, Storage and communication

10.2

2.7

Agricuture

8.3

39.1

Construction and Mining

4.3

6.6

Other services *

25.7

22.5

Note* Other services include financial sector, education, hotels and restaurants, etc.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/EconomicConditions/Thai/genecon/Pages/Thailand_Glance.aspx

Thanks for the charts. Very revealing. Can't say any thing about the last part as I do not understand it. What would be good points and bad points to judge from.

[chiang mai]

The important things to note are that the fairy tales being told in this thread are not true, aka, construction is less than 4.3% of GDP and of course nowhere near the 40+% mentioned earlier. It's also fair to say that tourism is closer to 12% rather than the 90% of GDP as foreseen in the wet dreams of many .

But the obvious good points are that such a high percentage of GDP (38%) is derived from manufacturing whilst employing a relatively low percentage of the population (14%), that means there's a huge amount of headroom for growth. The other interesting point is that the agriculture stats are the exact opposite, 8% of GDP but utilizing almost 40% of the work force - ample evidence there why the rice scheme was a vote getter.

Bad points: retail growth of 1% of GDP seems to utilize a corresponding 1% of the population, a nation of shop keepers perhaps, perhaps accounts for some of the growth/explosion of shopping malls recently. Trouble is, shop keepers don't make or grow stuff so that's a short lived strategy, I reckon.

Be interesting to see what other people think of those numbers, tourism and construction dreams notwithstanding!!!

[MESmith]

The important things to note are that the fairy tales being told in this thread are not true, aka, construction is less than 4.3% of GDP and of course nowhere near the 40+% mentioned earlier. It's also fair to say that tourism is closer to 12% rather than the 90% of GDP as foreseen in the wet dreams of many .

But the obvious good points are that such a high percentage of GDP (38%) is derived from manufacturing whilst employing a relatively low percentage of the population (14%), that means there's a huge amount of headroom for growth. The other interesting point is that the agriculture stats are the exact opposite, 8% of GDP but utilizing almost 40% of the work force - ample evidence there why the rice scheme was a vote getter.

Bad points: retail growth of 1% of GDP seems to utilize a corresponding 1% of the population, a nation of shop keepers perhaps, perhaps accounts for some of the growth/explosion of shopping malls recently. Trouble is, shop keepers don't make or grow stuff so that's a short lived strategy, I reckon.

Be interesting to see what other people think of those numbers, tourism and construction dreams notwithstanding!!!

Driving around Chiang mai you'd be excused for believing construction was 90% of GDP

(not being serious....)

[chiang mai]

Another decent report (Asian Development Bank) that covers the full 360 of the Thai economy, nicely balanced also:

http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/ado2014-thailand.pdf

[quidnunc]

Another decent report (Asian Development Bank) that covers the full 360 of the Thai economy, nicely balanced also:

http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/ado2014-thailand.pdf

Interesting report. One thing that stands out is the low inflation rate in Thailand. I remember that, in the wake of the government sharply raising the minimum rate, the great majority of opinions expressed on thaivisa warned of massive inflation. Lots of these people being the same ones who predicted massive inflation in the wake of QE in the USA. And they probably still are expecting it. There's a good reason why political ads from google that appear here virtually always are targeting tea party types.

[No1]

43 percent of The Economics in Thailand Are in construction And buildings. But for who? WHO will buy those buildings in The end?

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

It would be interesting to see your sources. I quite doubt the number is correct.

But will answer the question anyway: Institutions, investors and private households will buy buildings. Other than the common perception, the building industry is not doomed to build for traditional purposes (living, e.g.). Construction fulfills the illusion of a safe investment, wealth and prestige in many cultures. Can't discuss with most people if something better could be done than producing empty space. Btw, is an economy which is providing the world with combustion engine- powered, luxury vehicles any more sustainable? From what I have heard, cars are written off earlier and are losing value even faster than property in Thailand yet their sales can help supporting the GDP.

[chiang mai]

43 percent of The Economics in Thailand Are in construction And buildings. But for who? WHO will buy those buildings in The end?

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

It would be interesting to see your sources. I quite doubt the number is correct.

But will answer the question anyway: Institutions, investors and private households will buy buildings. Other than the common perception, the building industry is not doomed to build for traditional purposes (living, e.g.). Construction fulfills the illusion of a safe investment, wealth and prestige in many cultures. Can't discuss with most people if something better could be done than producing empty space. Btw, is an economy which is providing the world with combustion engine- powered, luxury vehicles any more sustainable? From what I have heard, cars are written off earlier and are losing value even faster than property in Thailand yet their sales can help supporting the GDP.

The answer to the 43% question is already clear, it is 4.3%.

But your comment regarding cars loosing value in Thailand is incorrect, the exact opposite is true. Used vehicles here hold their value longer and higher than any other country I've known, mostly that's a function of inexpensive parts and repair labour costs..

[Dante99]

43 percent of The Economics in Thailand Are in construction And buildings. But for who? WHO will buy those buildings in The end?

Gesendet von meinem iPad mit Thaivisa Connect Thailand

It would be interesting to see your sources. I quite doubt the number is correct.

But will answer the question anyway: Institutions, investors and private households will buy buildings. Other than the common perception, the building industry is not doomed to build for traditional purposes (living, e.g.). Construction fulfills the illusion of a safe investment, wealth and prestige in many cultures. Can't discuss with most people if something better could be done than producing empty space. Btw, is an economy which is providing the world with combustion engine- powered, luxury vehicles any more sustainable? From what I have heard, cars are written off earlier and are losing value even faster than property in Thailand yet their sales can help supporting the GDP.

The answer to the 43% question is already clear, it is 4.3%.

But your comment regarding cars loosing value in Thailand is incorrect, the exact opposite is true. Used vehicles here hold their value longer and higher than any other country I've known, mostly that's a function of inexpensive parts and repair labour costs..

Some brands hold their value very well, others do not. Compare Toyota, Isuzu and Ford used trucks and you will see.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Well for the Ford . ... wait.. we talking cars now?

[No1]

The answer to the 43% question is already clear, it is 4.3%.

But your comment regarding cars loosing value in Thailand is incorrect, the exact opposite is true. Used vehicles here hold their value longer and higher than any other country I've known, mostly that's a function of inexpensive parts and repair labour costs..

Nope, I didn't want to say anything about cars "loosing" value in Thailand. I was rather pointing at Germany's economy which is quite strong although they are producing cars which lose value faster than property. In other words: you can produce all kinds of useless stuff to pump up the GDP. Even insurances which only replace lost values increase the GDP.

Of course, you are right in saying that cars in Thailand don't lose as much value as in other foreign markets. It has always amazed me.

Edited May 29, 2014 by No1

[quidnunc]

The answer to the 43% question is already clear, it is 4.3%.

But your comment regarding cars loosing value in Thailand is incorrect, the exact opposite is true. Used vehicles here hold their value longer and higher than any other country I've known, mostly that's a function of inexpensive parts and repair labour costs..

Nope, I didn't want to say anything about cars "loosing" value in Thailand. I was rather pointing at Germany's economy which is quite strong although they are producing cars which lose value faster than property. In other words: you can produce all kinds of useless stuff to pump up the GDP. Even insurances which only replace lost values increase the GDP.

Of course, you are right in saying that cars in Thailand don't lose as much value as in other foreign markets. It has always amazed me.

Of course cars tend to lose their value faster than houses. They necessarily last a lot less longer. The rate of depreciation of an item bears no necessary relationship at all to its usefulness.

Edited May 29, 2014 by quidnunc

[chiang mai]

Er, before we stray too far, the subject is not cars but is the potential for a baht crash under military law.

[Mapguy]

Chiang Mai, you are a brave soul, to suggest macroeconomic analysis within a topic on this forum, a meeting place for microeconomics if there ever was one: "Chiang Mai on 500bhat a Day!"

Just to throw in my two saetang, there will not be a bhat crash that is attributable to present political situation, but...

One reservation: This is a Chiang Mai thread. I would worry more about the real estate bubble (as I see it) here as affected by recent political events and, perhaps, the consequent hesitance now among foreign investors in the condominium market --- and Thais investing for later rental returns. But, considering bond returns these days, I can see why people are into real estate. Good luck! Hope you have deep pockets! Of course, since there is no property tax in Thailand..........

[No1]

Just to throw in my two saetang, there will not be a bhat crash that is attributable to present political situation, but...

One reservation: This is a Chiang Mai thread. I would worry more about the real estate bubble (as I see it) here as affected by recent political events and, perhaps, the consequent hesitance now among foreign investors in the condominium market --- and Thais investing for later rental returns. But, considering bond returns these days, I can see why people are into real estate. Good luck! Hope you have deep pockets! Of course, since there is no property tax in Thailand..........

Baht crash? I wouldn't mind but it is improbable. A more educated assessment than the one I am able to give can be found in this article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-21/morgan-stanley-squares-off-against-jpmorgan-on-baht-currencies.html

Real estate bubble in CM? Probably. Foreign investors becoming hesitant to further contribute? Some of them. Thais investing for later rental return: did they ever do?? At the prices which mark the outer spere of the bubble, the rental return is ridiculous. My take is that it is to get rid of money or the illusion of having a place in the better areas of CM.

[chiang mai]

Just to throw in my two saetang, there will not be a bhat crash that is attributable to present political situation, but...

One reservation: This is a Chiang Mai thread. I would worry more about the real estate bubble (as I see it) here as affected by recent political events and, perhaps, the consequent hesitance now among foreign investors in the condominium market --- and Thais investing for later rental returns. But, considering bond returns these days, I can see why people are into real estate. Good luck! Hope you have deep pockets! Of course, since there is no property tax in Thailand..........

Baht crash? I wouldn't mind but it is improbable. A more educated assessment than the one I am able to give can be found in this article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-21/morgan-stanley-squares-off-against-jpmorgan-on-baht-currencies.html

Real estate bubble in CM? Probably. Foreign investors becoming hesitant to further contribute? Some of them. Thais investing for later rental return: did they ever do?? At the prices which mark the outer spere of the bubble, the rental return is ridiculous. My take is that it is to get rid of money or the illusion of having a place in the better areas of CM.

That's a link to a good article, it mirrors the uncertain that people here have.

[thailiketoo]

By the end of the year; ANZ says 34, Westpack 31, Morgan Stanly 37. Wow that really is all over the place.

[chiang mai]

By the end of the year; ANZ says 34, Westpack 31, Morgan Stanly 37. Wow that really is all over the place.

I think the Morgan Stanley view is nothing more than a reflection of the way the coup is viewed, from afar and inaccurately - they've simply said, a coup is a bad thing, it means no democracy, soldiers on the streets must be bad for business, currency must fall, next! Very shallow I reckon.

[thailiketoo]

By the end of the year; ANZ says 34, Westpack 31, Morgan Stanly 37. Wow that really is all over the place.

I think the Morgan Stanley view is nothing more than a reflection of the way the coup is viewed, from afar and inaccurately - they've simply said, a coup is a bad thing, it means no democracy, soldiers on the streets must be bad for business, currency must fall, next! Very shallow I reckon.

I agree with you. But that does mean that the average TV poster knows more about Thai Currency than Morgan Stanly. Wow. I'm sure Morgan Stanly is reading this; I'm available for a gazilion dollars a year as your Thai baht advisor. I got out of dollars at 39 so I'm hot.

[chiang mai]

By the end of the year; ANZ says 34, Westpack 31, Morgan Stanly 37. Wow that really is all over the place.

I think the Morgan Stanley view is nothing more than a reflection of the way the coup is viewed, from afar and inaccurately - they've simply said, a coup is a bad thing, it means no democracy, soldiers on the streets must be bad for business, currency must fall, next! Very shallow I reckon.

I agree with you. But that does mean that the average TV poster knows more about Thai Currency than Morgan Stanly. Wow. I'm sure Morgan Stanly is reading this; I'm available for a gazilion dollars a year as your Thai baht advisor. I got out of dollars at 39 so I'm hot.

Possibly, but judging from some of the threads and comments on this topic there's a whole bunch of posters who don't look very deeply into the subject, ex or current employees of MS perhaps! More likely I guess is that it's easier to poo poo the Thai economy (or most things Thai) rather than actually look at the facts and in doing so, destroy all hopes for a 40 or 50 baht Dollar and a 70 baht Pound.

EDIT: Just to add, I rather like this blog when it comes to daily views on currencies, the comments regarding Sterling strength are perhaps worth taking on board, within the context of what's already been stated about THB and USD.

http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/

Edited May 30, 2014 by chiang mai

[khwaibah]

Just now. Xe 32.84 and 55.01

[zeichen]

If you look through the trends of the Thai baht in the last decade even during the political strife you will notice that there is little effect on the economy or value of the Baht. The baht has weakened a small margin but to be honest still stronger than it was 6 months ago. If the 800k is the only money that the OP has, and wants to speculate on the fall of the baht and won't need that money to live on for the next year, then go ahead cash out. I have made lots of money on currency speculation but you sometimes need to sit on it for 1-2 years if you guessed wrong.

I wouldn't panic too much.

As for others who keep quoting what the GDP is, please learn to read Thai or at least use Thai sources and not Wiki garbage. When I studied Social Studies in Thai, Tourism was ranked 3rd for GDP and manufacturing was the highest but I don't recall percentages.

[thailiketoo]

If you look through the trends of the Thai baht in the last decade even during the political strife you will notice that there is little effect on the economy or value of the Baht. The baht has weakened a small margin but to be honest still stronger than it was 6 months ago. If the 800k is the only money that the OP has, and wants to speculate on the fall of the baht and won't need that money to live on for the next year, then go ahead cash out. I have made lots of money on currency speculation but you sometimes need to sit on it for 1-2 years if you guessed wrong.

I wouldn't panic too much.

As for others who keep quoting what the GDP is, please learn to read Thai or at least use Thai sources and not Wiki garbage. When I studied Social Studies in Thai, Tourism was ranked 3rd for GDP and manufacturing was the highest but I don't recall percentages.

Wiki uses GDP figures from the The International Monetary Fund (IMF). Tourism was 7.3% in 2012. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

If you have a more accurate source list it.