Military Law Money And maybe baht Crash

[chiangmai2014]

Hi everyone. I live in chiang Mai.Today its Military Law. I hear that all have to close at 22 Clock so i think it. will come an Economics Crash. Tourists are all leaving The Country. I have savings in bäht here. I have about 800 000 baht. Do anyone Know how i can change them. quick in Dollar? Or should i Transfer them on My Europe Account And is this possible. I am at kasikornbank. Thanks for help

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[JLT]

Jeez man, don't panic.

The bars closing at 10pm don't equate to an "economic crash". The likelihood is that the curfew will be lifted reasonably quickly once the retail and entertainment sectors start complaining...

[Loaded]

military coup every 8 years = business as usual

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Jeez man, don't panic.

The bars closing at 10pm don't equate to an "economic crash". The likelihood is that the curfew will be lifted reasonably quickly once the retail and entertainment sectors start complaining...

Yup.. I'll admit I did withdraw soem extra money when the last coup happened in 2006, but quickly found out there was absolutely no impact on anything. Baht didn't even lessen in value.

[mesquite]

OP, as others have said, don't panic. I, too, was here for the 2006 coup and it was business as usual. As Roosevelt said, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Very true here, now.

[Pinot]

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, but he's got guns.

[northernjohn]

Jeez man, don't panic.

The bars closing at 10pm don't equate to an "economic crash". The likelihood is that the curfew will be lifted reasonably quickly once the retail and entertainment sectors start complaining...

This guy is a no nonsense guy he will ignore them if he feels it is needed to restore the government.

I think he has done it just to keep better tabs on the protestors. When they get home he will lift it.

[Sheryl]

A number of unhelpful/trolling posts have been deleted.

OP: Thailand has a long history of coups, I have lived through more than I can count. In the past the impact on finance has been minimal.

[Suradit69]

Something tells me that some of the Thai Visa warriors are experiencing a Depend moment. Let's try not to embarrass ourselves individually or collectively. We may lose face, among other things.

[heybruce]

If you're really worried you can transfer some or all of the money to your European bank tomorrow, for a fee of course, but I don't think that's necessary. If this is a bank account for a retirement visa, you will have to transfer the money back, again with a fee, sooner or later.

If you were thinking of changing the entire 800k baht into cash US dollars, I advise against that. Having that much cash is risky.

Nobody is coming after the foreigners and none of the people who live here are packing their bags and paying for expensive, first-available airline tickets out of the country. The situation is annoying but it will blow over.

[sustento]

Something tells me that some of the Thai Visa warriors are experiencing a Depend moment. Let's try not to embarrass ourselves individually or collectively. We may lose face, among other things.

[kjhbigv]

"Economics Crash"....I have prayed for one of those for a long time....don't hold your breath.

If you live here what's the problem? Your 800k is still worth 800k tomorrow, Which I guess is for your retirement visa requirements cash?

Irrespective of how the baht performs against the $, it's still 800k.

You could take a punt on currency movements, but I doubt it will be worthwhile.

[Suradit69]

Within minutes of Thailand's army announcing a coup, the baht fell 0.6 percent versus the dollar. Templeton Emerging Markets Group and Samsung Asean Equity Fund say any market weakness will be shortlived.

"We view the current military coup as likely overall positive as it creates a more stable environment," Mark Mobius, who oversees about $50 billion as the group's executive chairman, said by e-mail. "The prognosis for Thailand is good given that direct foreign investors want stability in the country."

Overseas investors pulled $408 million from Thai stocks since martial law was declared early on May 20, according to exchange data, helping send the benchmark SET Index in Bangkok down 0.7 percent this month. The baht, the worst-performing currency in Asia in May, weakened 0.3 percent to 32.560 per dollar at 11:25 a.m. in New York.

While Credit Agricole CIB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Mizuho Bank Ltd. expect short-term weakness in the baht, the coup may provide certainty in a market that has faced 12 coups since 1932, Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics in London, said by phone.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/thai-baht-plunge-no-bear-144134460.html

[kjhbigv]

"$408 million from Thai stocks since martial law was declared early on May 20"

Peanuts....I wonder how that compares to a "normal" 2 days on the Thai SET in other circumstances.

[thai4me]

The tourist will keep the baht up. Always has.

[Sparkles]

If anything the army being in control will steady the baht which has been in decline in value for months. Overseas investors don't really care who is in power as long as there is stability which is exactly where we are now.

[oneday]

A number of unhelpful/trolling posts have been deleted.

OP: Thailand has a long history of coups, I have lived through more than I can count. In the past the impact on finance has been minimal.

So tell us Sheryl...in the past, has curfew been imposed and for how long? Having arrived to start my life here in August of 2009, I can't remember what happened as far as any curfew in 2006 or in prior coup years.

The reason I ask is if the protests were harming the economy, as they certainly were in the last 6-7 months, then this curfew, if it lasts long enough, will devastate the economy. Think of all the businesses that depend on doing business after 10pm such as all the convenience stores and all the 1000's of nightlife venues. What about buses, which I have not read about whatsoever if they have restrictions on travel after 10pm. Pattaya, a town in particular, that thrives on nightlife will be kicked in the butt economically and if you thought tourists were staying away during the protests over the last 6-7 months, then my guess is incoming tourists will now drop to a trickle so the airlines will be significantly harmed. Who wants to come to a country under curfew.

So it all comes down to how long this curfew will last. The rest of it IS business as usual.

I am a bit surprised to see the baht/USD exchange has not been affected at all by the coup or curfew...yet.

[Doc46]

What's your problem 800K is800K ,,, if it's in Thailand no matter the exchange,,, you're not losing or gain anything.

[PhillyBoy]

Whose leaving?? Not me!

[belg]

mai pen rai, not the first, nor the last coup ...

asean 2015 is hereby cancelled for thailand

no need for competition & other stuff, not thai anyway

[uptheos]

The baht won't fluctuate much, it might even strengthen.

Tourist's will continue to flock here after a short period and go home spouting "oh wow, like I've been in a country where a military coup took place".....strange things attract tourists.

[shaurene]

I think not. They now have some control of the country and like after the last coup the country came back stronger.

[malt25]

Whose leaving?? Not me!

"Tourists are all leaving The Country." Really !

I've just returned home from taking a friend to the Chiang Mai airport to travel to Bangkok, for a weeks vacation.

At the airport counted 3... three... soldiers looking quite bored. Drove to San Sai, about 10k, via city center & didn't see one soldier or BIB for that matter.

I'm taking & picking up from the airport on a reasonably regular basis & if anything it was somewhat quieter than normal. Certainly NO exodus.

My guess is there'll be a few more soldiers patrolling this evening to ensure the curfew is obeyed.

OP, no need to panic... it's all good.... stay & enjoy.

Cheers.... Mal.

[Cheesekraft]

time to invest THB. I bought bitcoins, gold seems like a good option also but less profitable (but much, much less variance)

[asdecas]

The OP may have something of a point. It depends whether you think this time is the same as the past few coups, when little damage if any was done to the Thai economy. Or do you think that the situation is more polarised than ever before, and that the mere fact of military intervention will do nothing to solve the systemic problems that Thailand now faces? In that case, the economy may well tank and the Baht depreciate over time.

In any event, there is no need to do anything in a panic, in my view.

[Sandman77]

During the flooding the baht also not crashed

Thai banks have enough gold in the Poket to hold baht on same level

[elzach]

Something tells me that some of the Thai Visa warriors are experiencing a Depend moment. Let's try not to embarrass ourselves individually or collectively. We may lose face, among other things.

You mean Thailand is not embarrassed enough already in front of the world? Is it possible that anyone individually or collectively can out-embarrass Thailand at this point?

[VegasVic]

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The tourist will keep the baht up. Always has.

Tourist dollars have very little to do with "keeping the baht up" as you put it. The Thai baht is strong against most of the major world currencies because of overseas investment in Thailand over the past 7-8 years, and also many years of extremely low interest rates around the globe. This has been a perfect storm in favor of the baht, however this military takeover could be the impetus for the a turn in foreign investor strategy and that coupled with the begining of a multi year rise in interest rates in the west could put the baht in for a long cycle of losing value.

[sgtsabai]

I know some, me for one, are not happy about the 2200 curfew, but it isn't just the farang venues that are affected. Many Thai venues (and there are a lot of them) don't get started until 2200, many late night food vendors, I saw many still open as I went home last night at 2200. Down town was closed, with everything shutting down about 2130 and the cops checking. Exceptions will have to be made for travel, shipping, imports/exports, over the road trucks, produce etc. deliveries. I don't remember a curfew last time, just party on dude. This, at least to me, has a different 'feel' to it. I'm certainly not worried, a little inconvenienced yes. I can see a short down turn in the economy if some semblance of 'democracy' or normalcy is not returned rather quickly. Certainly no reason to push the panic button.

[VegasVic]

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During the flooding the baht also not crashed
Thai banks have enough gold in the Poket to hold baht on same level

Another major misconception! The BOT and the "Thai banks " have very little control over where the baht moves. As international hedge funds, banks and investors have poured the easy money into Thailand over the past 8 years, they have had to buy baht in order to buy shares on the SET and other real estate and direct business investments, as those investments get "cashed in" theses folks will be massive sellers of the baht as they repatriate their funds. Thailand is a small country and these international investors are big players, think of Thailand like a dogs tail, and as we all know the dog wags the tail the tail does not wag the dog