Dilemma deepens for Seoul, Washington as Pyongyang seeks out Moscow

[webfact]

Dilemma deepens for Seoul, Washington as Pyongyang seeks out Moscow
Shin Hyon-hee
The Korea Herald

SEOUL: -- The dilemma is deepening for Seoul and Washington as North Korea seeks to improve relations with Japan and Russia, shrinking the allies’ policy options already eroded by the communist regime’s continuing nuclear development.

A series of unilateral moves by Tokyo to reengage Pyongyang has sparked concern that it could undermine international efforts to deter its nuclear ambitions and military provocations.

Furthering the concern is a recent agreement between the two old foes to reopen a probe into abducted Japanese nationals in exchange for the lifting of minor, independent sanctions against the North.

The announcement, however, caught South Korea and the US by surprise, though they received notice shortly before it was made public.

The hard-won deal came as the three countries and even China are ratcheting up the pressure to dissuade the North from conducting a fourth nuclear test and bring it back to the negotiating table.

Japan has long stressed the significance of trilateral security cooperation with Seoul and Washington, which was the rationale behind its push for a much-trumpeted three-way summit in The Hague in March.

In contrast to a perceived turnaround in Pyongyang-Tokyo ties, the Park Geun-hye government’s ambitious inter-Korean initiatives have made little headway.

The Barack Obama administration appears to be sticking to the “strategic patience” approach, which critics say only helps the erratic regime further sophisticate its nuclear capability thanks to inaction, even after another US citizen was found last week to have been detained in the reclusive state.

The allies seem to be remaining cautious about the agreement, displaying their understanding from a “humanitarian point of view” while calling for transparency in Japan’s dealings with the North and sustained denuclearisation cooperation.

Amid chilly relations with China, the Kim Jong-un regime is turning to Russia for economic support, which has taken flak for its annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the ongoing Ukraine crisis.

Moscow has recently agreed to write off almost $10 billion of Pyongyang’s Soviet-era debt, which it said could be used to finance a gas pipeline and a railway to South Korea through the North.

For cash-strapped Pyongyang, improved ties with Tokyo and Moscow could pave the way for food handouts and other assistance essential for propping up its economy and calming public sentiment.

The regime appears to be aiming for a deal with Japan on the normalisation of their bilateral relations, which will come with financial compensation for the island country’s 1910-45 colonial rule. Tokyo’s 1965 pact with Seoul provided seed money for the development of national infrastructure and core industries in the war-ravaged nation.

Though wary of a premature thaw in the North Korea-Japan relationship, Seoul officials painted a bleak outlook not only for the normalisation of ties but also for the abduction investigation given the stark differences between the two sides.

“Both sides would strive to meet each other’s expectations so as to keep up the momentum but it would not be easy because clearly there are limits,” a senior Seoul official said on condition of anonymity.

“Just like every cloud has a silver lining, the deal on the other hand means that Japan carries the big task of preventing North Korea’s fourth nuclear test.”

Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, said though the deal may mark a diplomatic coup for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, his options are limited in his diplomacy with Pyongyang.

“There is also the worry that North Korea’s ultimate ambition is to delink Japan from the extended deterrent that has long been at the core of the US-Japan alliance,” she wrote recently on 38 North, a blog run by the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University.

“(But) Abe will be constrained by the same factors that constrained his predecessors, and he is unlikely to deviate from Japan’s collaboration with Washington and Seoul. … This agreement on investigating the fate of the abductees will not be sufficient to compromise its longer term strategic concerns.”


-- ANN 2014-06-12

[thumper101]

The Japs won't ever align themselves with a despot like KJU.

The Russians on the other hand..........

[davejones23]

The Japs won't ever align themselves with a despot like KJU.

The Russians on the other hand..........

I'd be more wary of the Americans. They have aligned themselves with some truly dreadful regimes over the years.

[squarethecircle]

Hey, I don't think the Americans will f--- with you unless you are really asking for it. Not to defend various evils that have been done but this is my general impression. In this part of the world I am more wary of gov'ts like PRC and DRK and possibly Russia, and certainly mujihadeen jihadists, as far as people who will "f--- with you" even if you aren't asking for it.

[englishoak]

Bedtime boogy man stories, N Korea is doing what it always does, trying desperately to pretend its important.. its not... Japan dosnt want to help make it a competitor S Korea dosnt want reunification for economic reasons either and nor does China want a unified Korea as competition...

usual scare mongering from the region, the moment it gets out of hand thats the end of the kim regime ... and thats fat kids biggest fear

Edited June 12, 2014 by englishoak

[Scott]

Troll post removed.

[ggt]

The world's economic/political landscape is a changing...the US has created a vacuum in leadership in both areas...countries that were once considered safely tucked away in the US's back pocket...are going about the business of realigning themselves with other countries for economic/political/military reasons...and leaving the US out of the loop...this bodes badly for the future of the US dollar...and the future of US foreign relationships...

[belg]

so many drones the US have, why not use one for good ? they pretend to be pinpoint accurate

[atyclb]

Is they went to take out saddam for wmd that didnt exist why not north korea since wmd most definitely exist there and being further developed?

[tw25rw]

Repercussions are a bit different.. Not least because of said WMDs, but also because China have their own agenda and don't want the boat rocked.

[Bwanatickey]

When East Germany ( GDR) joined up with West Germany, it resulted in West Germany paying for it.

North Korea, what country is willing to pay for them to be brought up to date?