Is the Pattaya housing/condo bubble about to burst?

[i claudius]

For a start i am not a doomsayer or a particular knocker of Thailand ,having had buisness here ,been married had a child and lived here . but i was here in 97 when the bubble burst last time and never saw it coming ,but talking to a guy{Thai) who not only sells condoes but builds them as well ,he reckons that only 40% at most are actually lived in or owned as holiday homes ,he reckons that 60% are resales baught by people and buisnesses making a profit ,can this go on?

Edited July 3, 2014 by i claudius

[bkkjames]

What if you were a 40 year old guy, well enough off that you could afford a nice condo here and would like to spend several months here every year.

You are not retired so a retirement visa is not an option (age at 40 doesn't qualify you anyway). You are financially well enough off to afford a condo and not have to work while here. Perhaps you own a company back in your own country or something similar. With all the changes underway and surrounding confusion about visa hassles, would you spend your money on something that could end up being a headache to own, nevermind visit and stay in?

As a fairly well-off guy your time here could be spent golfing, travelling, spending more money but .....

Perhaps I am missing something but there seems to be a gap between people who visit for a week or two, those retired or working here legally, and the other group that can afford to stay here for months at a time but appear to be unwelcome?

End result, you put your money elsewhere.

[KittenKong]

There can be little doubt that condo prices here are vastly overinflated. Hard to see how they can possibly stay so high indefinitely.

Personally I bought my condo in the knowledge that it was somewhat overpriced because it is one of the very few I have seen that I like, and because even if it halves in value I will still want to live in it.

Of course if Thailand changes the retirement extension rules and I have to move to Cambodia or Costa Rica or wherever then I may be out a couple of million Baht on my condo and I may cry into my beer for a day or two about that before forgetting about it. Even including my car and my retirement extension deposit and my condo all my Thai holdings only represent a few % of my net worth, so no big deal.

But if I had put my life savings into off-plan condo investments here I would be sh*tting myself now.

[Essex Exile]

There can be little doubt that condo prices here are vastly overinflated. Hard to see how they can possibly stay so high indefinitely.

Personally I bought my condo in the knowledge that it was somewhat overpriced because it is one of the very few I have seen that I like, and because even if it halves in value I will still want to live in it.

Of course if Thailand changes the retirement extension rules and I have to move to Cambodia or Costa Rica or wherever then I may be out a couple of million Baht on my condo and I may cry into my beer for a day or two about that before forgetting about it. Even including my car and my retirement extension deposit and my condo all my Thai holdings only represent a few % of my net worth, so no big deal.

But if I had put my life savings into off-plan condo investments here I would be sh*tting myself now.

So you are well off and won't be too fussed about losing a few mil on your property, but you are forever on here complaining about the price of a bottle of water, amongst other things?

[PattayaPhom]

What if you were a 40 year old guy, well enough off that you could afford a nice condo here and would like to spend several months here every year.

You are not retired so a retirement visa is not an option (age at 40 doesn't qualify you anyway). You are financially well enough off to afford a condo and not have to work while here. Perhaps you own a company back in your own country or something similar. With all the changes underway and surrounding confusion about visa hassles, would you spend your money on something that could end up being a headache to own, nevermind visit and stay in?

As a fairly well-off guy your time here could be spent golfing, travelling, spending more money but .....

Perhaps I am missing something but there seems to be a gap between people who visit for a week or two, those retired or working here legally, and the other group that can afford to stay here for months at a time but appear to be unwelcome?

End result, you put your money elsewhere.

500K elite card,

[bkkjames]

What if you were a 40 year old guy, well enough off that you could afford a nice condo here and would like to spend several months here every year.

You are not retired so a retirement visa is not an option (age at 40 doesn't qualify you anyway). You are financially well enough off to afford a condo and not have to work while here. Perhaps you own a company back in your own country or something similar. With all the changes underway and surrounding confusion about visa hassles, would you spend your money on something that could end up being a headache to own, nevermind visit and stay in?

As a fairly well-off guy your time here could be spent golfing, travelling, spending more money but .....

Perhaps I am missing something but there seems to be a gap between people who visit for a week or two, those retired or working here legally, and the other group that can afford to stay here for months at a time but appear to be unwelcome?

End result, you put your money elsewhere.

500K elite card,

lol ok. Make some discerning well to do person pay for the priviledge to give you more money on a regular basis. Sounds like a bank.

[PattayaPhom]

[bkkjames]

what are you talking about? The OP asked a legit question.

[PattayaPhom]

What if you were a 40 year old guy, well enough off that you could afford a nice condo here and would like to spend several months here every year.

You are not retired so a retirement visa is not an option (age at 40 doesn't qualify you anyway). You are financially well enough off to afford a condo and not have to work while here. Perhaps you own a company back in your own country or something similar. With all the changes underway and surrounding confusion about visa hassles, would you spend your money on something that could end up being a headache to own, nevermind visit and stay in?

As a fairly well-off guy your time here could be spent golfing, travelling, spending more money but .....

Perhaps I am missing something but there seems to be a gap between people who visit for a week or two, those retired or working here legally, and the other group that can afford to stay here for months at a time but appear to be unwelcome?

End result, you put your money elsewhere.

500K elite card,

lol ok. Make some discerning well to do person pay for the priviledge to give you more money on a regular basis. Sounds like a bank.

I am not aware of any country that gives free visas, whats the problem.

[Asiantravel]

But we as foreigners have to get used to the fact that the market in Thailand isn't the same as we are normally used to. Evidently there are a significant number of people that can afford to simply lock up the condo and wait until the price reaches their expectations.

Admittedly, it was Bangkok not Pattaya but I remember seeing a huge number of condos that had been mothballed as shells (without any internal fitting out whatsoever) after the 1997 crisis. The owners simply said we will wait till the prices come back.

And sure enough property traders started appearing in 2003 and started fitting out these properties and those in reasonable locations did eventually sell.

Edited July 3, 2014 by Asiantravel

[bkkjames]

What if you were a 40 year old guy, well enough off that you could afford a nice condo here and would like to spend several months here every year.

You are not retired so a retirement visa is not an option (age at 40 doesn't qualify you anyway). You are financially well enough off to afford a condo and not have to work while here. Perhaps you own a company back in your own country or something similar. With all the changes underway and surrounding confusion about visa hassles, would you spend your money on something that could end up being a headache to own, nevermind visit and stay in?

As a fairly well-off guy your time here could be spent golfing, travelling, spending more money but .....

Perhaps I am missing something but there seems to be a gap between people who visit for a week or two, those retired or working here legally, and the other group that can afford to stay here for months at a time but appear to be unwelcome?

End result, you put your money elsewhere.

500K elite card,

lol ok. Make some discerning well to do person pay for the priviledge to give you more money on a regular basis. Sounds like a bank.

I am not aware of any country that gives free visas, whats the problem.

make yourself aware then. I think neighbors to the south do...

the point is this ..... and it not only applies to Pattaya - if you want to attract people with money to spend money in your country, make it easy for them to do it.

Right now as I see, some guy who is 40 with money would not likely buy a condo here if he has to jump through 50 different hurdles to come spend some time in it whereas some guy who is 50 and can meet some financial requirements such as xxx baht in the bank - can without making mutliple trips to embassies for visas, questions at the border are you a tourist etc etc..

I suspect the well off 40 yo could be 20 or 30 year old) would likely contribute more to the local economy that some guy on a pension sitting in a 900k studio with 800k tied up in a bank. Perhaps I am mistaken.

[Basil B]

If 60% have been bought as investment then the bubble will burst when people start having to liquidate assets, may be then the Thais will do as the Spanish did a few decades ago when I think it was Torremolinos that band the building of new hotels.

Maybe a time to ban cheap and high in favour of small low rise quality developments.

[Naam]

But we as foreigners have to get used to the fact that the market in Thailand isn't the same as we are normally used to. Evidently there are a significant number of people that can afford to simply lock up the condo and wait until the price reaches their expectations.

Admittedly, it was Bangkok not Pattaya but I remember seeing a huge number of condos that had been mothballed as shells (without any internal fitting out whatsoever) after the 1997 crisis. The owners simply said we will wait till the prices come back.

And sure enough property traders started appearing in 2003 and started fitting out these properties and those in reasonable locations did eventually sell.

not only those in reasonable locations. virtually all what was empty in 1998 was sold by 2005/06 and eventually the same will happen with those condos which have been built or are still under construction.

the strategy of Thai developers and financiers cannot be compared with those of our home countries but the stragegy works! i'm not willing to state details why it works

[chris2004]

The current developers must know something we don't. They are building condos in Pattaya like there is no tomorrow, thousands and thousands with a few square kms. I don't really care as i bought my condo as a place to live not an investment so it's value is not important.

[properperson]

There can be little doubt that condo prices here are vastly overinflated. Hard to see how they can possibly stay so high indefinitely.

Personally I bought my condo in the knowledge that it was somewhat overpriced because it is one of the very few I have seen that I like, and because even if it halves in value I will still want to live in it.

Of course if Thailand changes the retirement extension rules and I have to move to Cambodia or Costa Rica or wherever then I may be out a couple of million Baht on my condo and I may cry into my beer for a day or two about that before forgetting about it. Even including my car and my retirement extension deposit and my condo all my Thai holdings only represent a few % of my net worth, so no big deal.

But if I had put my life savings into off-plan condo investments here I would be sh*tting myself now.

So you are well off and won't be too fussed about losing a few mil on your property, but you are forever on here complaining about the price of a bottle of water, amongst other things?

..........i think that could well be a contender for "reply of the month".............

[shirtless]

Condos seem too abundant in Pattaya they keep building them , I think their is a bubble only time will tell if and when it will bursts. give it another 12 months before we see investors start dumping condos.

[KittenKong]

So you are well off and won't be too fussed about losing a few mil on your property, but you are forever on here complaining about the price of a bottle of water, amongst other things?

The two are totally different as far as I am concerned.

I spend 10B on the bahtbus to go to Pattaya for the evening and I also spend 65KB on a business class flight to the UK. Why not?

[Essex Exile]

So you are well off and won't be too fussed about losing a few mil on your property, but you are forever on here complaining about the price of a bottle of water, amongst other things?

The two are totally different as far as I am concerned.

I spend 10B on the bahtbus to go to Pattaya for the evening and I also spend 65KB on a business class flight to the UK. Why not?

Yes, they are indeed different, one is a bottle of water, the other is a condo..

Personally, I fly first class back to the UK, 120KB

EE

[properperson]

So you are well off and won't be too fussed about losing a few mil on your property, but you are forever on here complaining about the price of a bottle of water, amongst other things?

The two are totally different as far as I am concerned.

I spend 10B on the bahtbus to go to Pattaya for the evening and I also spend 65KB on a business class flight to the UK. Why not?

............thats nothing, bloke down our way has bought his own plane......

[i claudius]

The current developers must know something we don't. They are building condos in Pattaya like there is no tomorrow, thousands and thousands with a few square kms. I don't really care as i bought my condo as a place to live not an investment so it's value is not important.

Guys like you are ok ,because its your home ,no matter how it goes ,up or down ,only a problem if you have to sell, but most developers are selling the condoes ,but to investors not as homes ,even holiday homes , as a builder he was not worried as he was selling out straight away , my thought was the one second or third in the line trying to make a profit.. as happened in Dubai recently.

[i claudius]

So you are well off and won't be too fussed about losing a few mil on your property, but you are forever on here complaining about the price of a bottle of water, amongst other things?

The two are totally different as far as I am concerned.

I spend 10B on the bahtbus to go to Pattaya for the evening and I also spend 65KB on a business class flight to the UK. Why not?

............thats nothing, bloke down our way has bought his own plane......

The bloke down our ways plane is bigger than the blokes down your way

[Swiss1960]

Right... condo bubble burst... did I not read that last year... and the year before last year... and the year before the year before last year... t.b.c.....

[kwonitoy]

The difference I see from 97 is this:

I was working here in 1997, and we passed miles of row houses, quite small, for local buyers, being built on the outskirts of Bangkok, I asked my Thai supervisor if he could afford to buy a new place like that. He laughed and said no way not in a million years. Too much of an income gap.

Working with some Thai technicians offshore this year, 3 of them had just bought new houses in Rayong and had put down very sizeable payments.

A rising tide is lifting everyones boat, so to speak.

Not all of the locals are dirt poor anymore

Not all of the condos being built are for foreigners,

[KittenKong]

So you are well off and won't be too fussed about losing a few mil on your property, but you are forever on here complaining about the price of a bottle of water, amongst other things?

The two are totally different as far as I am concerned.

I spend 10B on the bahtbus to go to Pattaya for the evening and I also spend 65KB on a business class flight to the UK. Why not?

Yes, they are indeed different, one is a bottle of water, the other is a condo..

Personally, I fly first class back to the UK, 120KB

Bully for you. Personally I would not pay that much as I dont think I would get much more out of it than I get out of a business class ticket at half the price.

80B for a bottle of water in some third-rate Pattaya pub is not good value in my book. 10B for a Bahtbus trip to Pattaya or 65KB for a business class ticket to the UK are both good value in my book. As such I continue to buy the latter two and I continue to treat the first with the contempt it richly deserves.

I cant see this changing, even if I suddenly found myself with many times more money than I have at the moment.

[KittenKong]

Not all of the locals are dirt poor anymore

True, but many still are. And even those spending money may also have a lot of credit.

Not all of the condos being built are for foreigners,

Indeed, but much of the demand in Pattaya and nearby is driven by farang buyers. It's still the 49% farang quota that sells out first, and which gets the highest price.

[OMGImInPattaya]

There can be little doubt that condo prices here are vastly overinflated. Hard to see how they can possibly stay so high indefinitely.

Personally I bought my condo in the knowledge that it was somewhat overpriced because it is one of the very few I have seen that I like, and because even if it halves in value I will still want to live in it.

Of course if Thailand changes the retirement extension rules and I have to move to Cambodia or Costa Rica or wherever then I may be out a couple of million Baht on my condo and I may cry into my beer for a day or two about that before forgetting about it. Even including my car and my retirement extension deposit and my condo all my Thai holdings only represent a few % of my net worth, so no big deal.

But if I had put my life savings into off-plan condo investments here I would be sh*tting myself now.

So you are well off and won't be too fussed about losing a few mil on your property, but you are forever on here complaining about the price of a bottle of water, amongst other things?

Some people never seem to understand, that's how people with money to spare got that way...they don't overpay for stuff! I'm the same, I don't mind paying for value but not for over-priced or unnecessary fluff.

[Naam]

Right... condo bubble burst... did I not read that last year... and the year before last year... and the year before the year before last year... t.b.c.....

the condo bubble burst is one of the favourite topics of people who have no idea how Thai property investors think and were they can sink/hide easily "surplus" cash

[KittenKong]

the condo bubble burst is one of the favourite topics of people who have no idea how Thai property investors think and were they can sink/hide easily "surplus" cash

Do you mean Thai property investors or investors in Thai property? Or both?

Yes, there is a lot of grubby money "invested" in Thai condos, but there are also a lot of buyers using perfectly clean money, and also Thai buyers using easy credit. If any of those groups suddenly needed to pull out the domino effect might be impressive.

[rgs2001uk]

Who cares!!!!

[KittenKong]

Who cares!!!!

The people reading and contributing to the thread perhaps? I wasnt aware that doing either was obligatory, so why not let those who want to do it get on with it? There are plenty of other pointless topics to discuss for those who aren't interested in condos.

Personally I think that condo buildings are an interesting and highly visible part of Pattaya, rather like potholes and jet-skis and restaurants and the price of beer. But I'm not interested in where to see the world cup matches or the price of Madagascan hookers in WS, so I dont read those threads.